How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an interesting bit of video.  It is supposedly a strike on a Russian command center of some sort.  Note that the focus of the camera is on the rather large building on the other side of the treeline.  First shot is a direct hit, rest is the usual mix of accurate and WILDLY inaccurate shelling.  Does anybody think the first hit was a fluke?  I don't.  My guess is we just saw a precision shell used as the only other option, a TB2 strike, seems insufficient to make that sort of blast effect.

The first one might have been a smart munition to get that on target before there was going to be smoke from the rest that might interfere with a targeting laser. But the rest weren't wildly off target - look at the next three: two of them hit what look like a secondary encampment and the woods where you'd put your forces covering the road.  And much of the rest of the barrage went into lines of trees on both sides of the road, with relatively few just hitting the open fields (and nicely distributed in the fields).  Like somebody thought about the pattern.  I wish all my CM barrages could be that accurate.

[The_MonkeyKing]

pretty major. I would think M109 would be a great option for long term main SPH for Ukraine. Lots of them out there, light system, simpler than Pzh2000.

Edited April 30, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Another general seems to have died, Major General Simonov. 

 

 

according to reddit comment he was from Electronic Warfare Troops. 

Made one mobile call too many from a stolen iPhone?  

[sburke]

Seems western nations have decided to tell Putin to stick his threats where the sun don't shine.   As Ukraine gets these in theater and distributed, the capability for more offensive action is gonna go way up.

Answering The Call: Heavy Weaponry Supplied To Ukraine - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Another general seems to have died, Major General Simonov. 

 

 

Not confirmed by Russian sources jet ) Also I can't find any information about general with such name. There is only Denis Simonov, mayor general FSB. But this one Alexey or Alexandr, judging of his name Simonov A.D. on the uniform

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Update about UKR advance on N/NE of Kharkiv. General Staff today claimed during 28-29th of April UKR forces liberated not only Rus'ka Lozova, Kutuzivka and Momotove, but also Slobidske, Prelesne (very small village next to Slobidske) and Verhnia Rohanka. 

Russian social media say in that time when in Tsyrkuny area Russian troops is deployed, the flanks of Tsyrkuny group secured mostly DPR conscripts with some Russian reinforcements.

If UKR troops can eliminate Tsyrkuny group they can after this advance further to Staryi Saltiv and Vovchansk to cut one of two Russian supply ways Belgorod-Vovchansk-Kupiansk- Izium.

 

Holding an important Flank with DPR conscripts sounds exactly like the Romanians and Hungarians the Germans had holding their lines outside of Stalingrad. Are just not any books at Russian military schools? Are they incapable flipping a historical map around and wondering what the other side was thinking?

 

[Taranis]

 

[sburke]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Update about UKR advance on N/NE of Kharkiv. General Staff today claimed during 28-29th of April UKR forces liberated not only Rus'ka Lozova, Kutuzivka and Momotove, but also Slobidske, Prelesne (very small village next to Slobidske) and Verhnia Rohanka. 

Russian social media say in that time when in Tsyrkuny area Russian troops is deployed, the flanks of Tsyrkuny group secured mostly DPR conscripts with some Russian reinforcements.

If UKR troops can eliminate Tsyrkuny group they can after this advance further to Staryi Saltiv and Vovchansk to cut one of two Russian supply ways Belgorod-Vovchansk-Kupiansk- Izium.

 

Ha Vovchansk is what I'd suggested way back as a drone/artillery target.  Is UA gonna one up me by trying to actually cut that road?  It is about 25 miles and a major river crossing.  I'd opt for interdicting it.  Will be interesting if UA can take it under fire as the Russians in Izyum will have a real problem if they decide to retreat like they did at Kiev.  Looks like it would only leave one major road for either supply or retreat.  With all that arty stuff coming in that highway could be a real problem.

[Cogust]

Well, if you are running low on troops you have to put the DPR conscripts somewhere...

[akd]

52 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Another general seems to have died, Major General Simonov. 

 

 

Interesting if true.  Apparently Maj. Gen. Andrey Dmitrievich Simonov is the head of radio-electronic warfare for the Russian Ground Forces.

@Haiduk, he is titled here:

https://informnapalm.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/EW.ru_.pdf?amp=1

Edited April 30, 2022 by akd

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

really glad I wasn't drinking something when I saw this.  I would've spit it all over my monitor.  Professional humor.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I posted yesterday this video, this was Grad salvo. No guided shells.

Hah!  Well, then a very lucky hit with that first rocket.  Very lucky.  If this had been a CM2 game the defender would have complained about a bug making Grads unrealistically accurate

Steve

[Seedorf81]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Just for reference..

US ARMY in WW2 lost, from Pearl Harbor until Japanese surrender, nineteen (19) generals through direct enemy fire. Included are one dying in POWcamp, and two missing in action who's cause of death was unknown.

(A whole lot more died of airplane-crashes, but those were not downed by enemies!)

Even if you consider changed tactics and weaponry, It makes the Russian General dying-rate unbelievable.

 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Cogust said:

Well, if you are running low on troops you have to put the DPR conscripts somewhere...

So when the history is written I hope it says "DPR troops performed in a manner that would've made November 1942 Romanians proud"

[sross112]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Holding an important Flank with DPR conscripts sounds exactly like the Romanians and Hungarians the Germans had holding their lines outside of Stalingrad. Are just not any books at Russian military schools? Are they incapable flipping a historical map around and wondering what the other side was thinking?

 

Same problem the Germans had, too much front and not enough troops. Use your better more reliable ones for the attack and cover the flanks with whatever you can. Probably have better results if they mixed them instead of giving them their own piece of the front though.

Personally I am surprised they haven't pulled 99% of the troops from the Sumy borders and used them. Not like the UA is going to drive on Moscow, yet anyway.

[Markus86]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not confirmed by Russian sources jet ) Also I can't find any information about general with such name. There is only Denis Simonov, mayor general FSB. But this one Alexey or Alexandr, judging of his name Simonov A.D. on the uniform

His name seems to be Simonov, Andrey. 

I find his name in context with electronic warfare. 

Simonov, Andrey, Denis Khripushin and Mikhail Chikin, “Perspektivy avtomatizirovannogo upravleniya v soyedineniyakh radioelektronnoy bor’by Vooruzhonnykh Sil Rossiyskoy Federatsii” [Prospects of automated command and control in the formations of electronic warfare of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian social media say in that time when in Tsyrkuny area Russian troops is deployed, the flanks of Tsyrkuny group secured mostly DPR conscripts with some Russian reinforcements.

I can't imagine the Russian commander of the Tsyrkuny is too happy to have DPR conscripts guarding his flanks.

It seems the Ukrainian counter offensive NE of Kharkiv is picking up some steam.  This is good.  Russia is going to have to make a decision soon (probably this week) if it intends on keeping forces around Kharkiv or if it is going withdraw.  If they intend on keeping it, then they're probably going to have to reinforce it.  Where they'll get the forces to do that is anybody's guess, but it seems wherever they come from will be from the frontline.  Removal then means a reduction in capabilities for that particular sector.

Steve

[kraze]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

While most US media is focused on what US does, I saw on an Oryx twitter (via DailyKos) that Poland just sent massive weapons haul:  (I don't have twitter so didn't know how to share, but here's cut & paste)

- 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs

- 40 BMP-1 IFVs

- 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs

- 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs

- WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs

- 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles [For Su-27 and MiG-29]

230 T72s -- that is game changing when coupled w all the artillery coming online.

looks like Black Sea module just got delayed by another 5 years

[Battlefront.com]

We've been waiting to hear about 1-3 more generals killed from the report of the massive HQ strike near Kherson.  Maybe Simonov is one of them?

Steve

[sburke]

Seems Russia is even expending the missiles in its submarine fleet.  Found one interesting item in the article if true.

Russian Defense Ministry confirms submarine missile attacks on Ukraine (msn.com)

 

Is the UA actively taking the fight to Russia across the border? (more blatantly anyway).

 

Also, on Saturday, shelling in the Russian border region continued.

The shelling hit an oil terminal in the village of Zhecha in the Russian region of Bryansk, which borders Ukraine, causing damage, but there were no casualties, Regional Gov. Alexander Bogomaz said in a statement Saturday.

On Friday, Bogomaz said in a Telegram post the border department of the Federal Security Service reported another incident of shelling in a nearby village, Belaya Berezka, alleging that the mortar fire came from territory of Ukraine. In that incident, Bogomaz said that water and electricity networks were damaged, but there were no casualties.

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

His name seems to be Simonov, Andrey. 

I find his name in context with electronic warfare. 

Simonov, Andrey, Denis Khripushin and Mikhail Chikin, “Perspektivy avtomatizirovannogo upravleniya v soyedineniyakh radioelektronnoy bor’by Vooruzhonnykh Sil Rossiyskoy Federatsii” [Prospects of automated command and control in the formations of electronic warfare of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Yes, now I'v found it with request Андрей Симонов РЕБ - only mention as co-autor of this article. And in images - there is and article about his promotion to mayor general rank. But w/o any details who is this general. Secret man  

Edited April 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[sross112]

Live UA Map is saying as of 2 hours ago Kherson has been in a near total internet blackout. Wonder what the RA doesn't want everyone to see?

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've been waiting to hear about 1-3 more generals killed from the report of the massive HQ strike near Kherson.  Maybe Simonov is one of them?

Steve

No, Simonov was allegedly killed during the strike at rear comamnd point in Zabavme village near Izium. The same video with first rocket of MLRS lucky shot

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, now I'v found it with request Андрей Симонов РЕБ - only mention as co-autor of this article. And in images - there is and article amout his promotion to mayor general rank. But w/o any details what is teh general. Secret man  

https://informnapalm.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/EW.ru_.pdf?amp=1

This has a title listed for him: заместитель начальника войск радиоэлектронной борьбы Вооружённых Сил Российской Федерации

Deputy Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation

Is there a Chief with Lt. Gen. rank?  Or should this be read as Deputy (to the General Staff?), Chief of the Electronic Warfare Troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation?

Edited April 30, 2022 by akd