How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

Bryansk appears to be about 1/4-ish the way between the Ukrainian border and metro Moscow. Invading another country is all well and good as long as the carnage doesn't leak over into your own country. I'm reminded of Saudi Arabia in 2019 saber-rattling in Iran's direction, Iran then flying a coupe long range kamakazi drones into some previusly untouchable oil production facilities. Suddenly the Saudis decided to 'play nice' with Iran.

[Sojourner]

Russian refinery fires not all that uncommon, but seems to have increased in frequency lately...

June 16, 2014 Night inferno as refinery explodes in Russia - Achinsk refinery in Krasnoyarsk region

October 19, 2017 Refinery Explosion 4 Dead Norsi oil refinery in the Kstovsky district

November 2 2017 Yanos refinery fire in Yaroslavl

January 9, 2020 10-Hour Refinery Fire in Northeast Russia Injures 1

December 22, 2020 Fire at Rosneft refinery in Russia's Far East contained

January 25, 2021 Storage Tank Fire Reported at Ufaorgsintez Russian Refinery

October 8, 2021 A huge fire has broken out at the Amur Gas Processing Plant in Svobodny in the far east of Russia, just a few months after it was opened by president Vladimir Putin

January 4, 2022 Antipinsky oil refinery, Russia's largest independent oil-processing plant

January 5, 2022 Russia's Amur gas plant says a unit caught fire

 

[Battlefront.com]

 

1 minute ago, Sojourner said:

Russian refinery fires not all that uncommon, but seems to have increased in frequency lately...

June 16, 2014 Night inferno as refinery explodes in Russia - Achinsk refinery in Krasnoyarsk region

October 19, 2017 Refinery Explosion 4 Dead Norsi oil refinery in the Kstovsky district

November 2 2017 Yanos refinery fire in Yaroslavl

January 9, 2020 10-Hour Refinery Fire in Northeast Russia Injures 1

December 22, 2020 Fire at Rosneft refinery in Russia's Far East contained

January 25, 2021 Storage Tank Fire Reported at Ufaorgsintez Russian Refinery

October 8, 2021 A huge fire has broken out at the Amur Gas Processing Plant in Svobodny in the far east of Russia, just a few months after it was opened by president Vladimir Putin

January 4, 2022 Antipinsky oil refinery, Russia's largest independent oil-processing plant

January 5, 2022 Russia's Amur gas plant says a unit caught fire

 

Correct, and a bunch of pages back I pointed out that munitions dump explosions in Russia are not unusual either.  One big one every couple of years for the last 20 years or so.

However, there's also one or more parties that have the motivation to make these things happen.  For all we know Ukraine has had sleeper cells or newly inserted forces put in to do just that.

The issue with this fire is where and when it is happening.  It would be two coincidences that it is happening near the border and happening now.  And if it indeed seems to have more than one ignition point, then that's even more reason to think it's deliberate.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Probus said:

You may have missed something Steve. What if the blame is Putin's? If Putin is calling the shots like Stalin did then nobody wants to blame him. That's gonna make it more difficult for the army to change tactics too. 

That's my point.  If the policy is set at the very top there's no hope of change unless the person on top is replaced.  In a corporation the board of directors can finally get a clue and replace a failed CEO.  In Russia's case, the equivalent is the oligarchs with, perhaps, support of either the military or the intelligence services (unlikely both).  Either way, no change while Putin is in power.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Well, well a fuel dump and a arsenal? Very good for Ukraine. Wonder how the Russians feel about this strike deeper than last time. If it is Ukraine, it's notable how they are reaching deeper into Russia.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

@Battlefront.com your assault idea shares similarities in execution with the Chinese tactics in Korea, yes?

Obviously force composition is different, Chinese were much lighter, but strong similarities in using infiltration to induce panic, avoiding their mechanical mass and exploiting low morale and leadership.

It's a tried and true tactic.  In fact, I just finished watching an episode of Last Kingdom a few minutes ago that had the same exact thing.  It was an attack on a walled fortress.  While the gate was being bashed by a conventional attack, a small group penetrated and swarmed around the back of the defenders.  The defenders were surprised and distracted, which disrupted their ability to respond.  Neither attacking force stood a chance of success on its own, but the combined disruptive effect was successful.

In the case of Ukraine, the primary concept here is that nobody is happy to have their rear area turn into a warzone.  A platoon of light infantry can make a LOT of noise, especially if they tote along a bunch of NATO boom sticks.  Drones flying around give the platoon a good idea where to go and not to, but the drone's buzzing is also something that is bound to freak out the defenders too.

If there is no direct conventional attack against the front, then the defenders might be able to gather their wits about them and wipe out or otherwise defeat the marauding light infantry.  But the chances of that happening while also taking fire from artillery and direct fire decreases greatly.  If they concentrate on the front, their rear gets shot up and eventually they take fire from two sides.  If they concentrate on the rear, same thing.  Concentrating on both might not be feasible.

This sort of attack is totally sound from a tactical standpoint.  Especially with thin lines.  However, the primary reason it would work for Ukraine is their superior morale and demonstrated ability to successfully conduct small unit actions.  I don't think the Russians could mimic this at any scale.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Well, well a fuel dump and a arsenal? Very good for Ukraine. Wonder how the Russians feel about this strike deeper than last time. If it is Ukraine, it's notable how they are reaching deeper into Russia.

 

Well, I think we just had that question answered   Also explains why there seems to be two things burning at once.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

it is getting hard to write this stuff off as just Russian infrastructure failures.  Granted it could be viewer confirmation bias, but do we have any reports of normal Russian accident rates?  Be nice to know for sure that this is really above and beyond as opposed to..   oh yeah another drunk Russian smoking right under the "DANGER -flammable - no smoking" sign.  In this case apparently 2 drunk Russian smokers....

In 3 separate locations across town? That's quite the smoking habit, lol!

But Stalin was continuously shooting 'spies, saboteurs and wreckers.' Like, by the million. So maybe it's yet another of those dark gloomy Russian national quirks. Got to warm up those long winters.

Not like those decadent Uzbeks, who will never amount to much....

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

Something to consider, while we understand Russia using attacks on their soil and mobilizing, something else to consider is how much the propaganda is making it seem Ukraine is on the ropes, so a attack on a tank depot and a oil depot deep inside Russia is a indication the war is not going well, so maybe Russia wants to make it seem like a accident? Things like understating Russian casualties, would fall within that vein as well. 

It's interesting, for all the talk of defeating Nazis, Russia seems intent on keeping the war away from normal Russians as a legit war, with deaths spiralling high, attacks on home soil. You would think Russia would want to tout this as a reason for mobilization but with all the lies about how Ukraine is on the ropes, I suppose they can't easily back out of the falsehoods. 

Or maybe its too early to say, and the attack response is still developing. 

 

 

[FancyCat]

Oh how satellite widespread deployment changes the world....where once we were left to rely on governments who were privy to information like this, now anyone can see this, yes it's a NASA satellite but anyone can see the data it spits out.

 

 

[asurob]

I 100 percent believe this is a false flag.  Little Vlad knows he needs to fully mobilize in order to stand a chance of breaking Ukraine (I personally don't believe that even if he does Russia can win) and has ordered these attacks inside Russia to legitimize it.  He has done it before and he is doing it now.

Simply too many happening at once for it to be Russian resistance or Ukraine...

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Something to consider, while we understand Russia using attacks on their soil and mobilizing, something else to consider is how much the propaganda is making it seem Ukraine is on the ropes, so a attack on a tank depot and a oil depot deep inside Russia is a indication the war is not going well, so maybe Russia wants to make it seem like a accident? Things like understating Russian casualties, would fall within that vein as well. 

Russia is in a no-win situation with these fires.  If they are genuinely accidents, then the government is reinforcing the notion that it's not able to take care of people's safety.  If they acts of external aggression (Ukraine), then it shows Russia's defenses are porous and its ability defend the people questionable.  If the acts are of internal nature, then it demonstrates that there is some active opposition to Putin's rule that isn't intimidated by his obvious (to everybody) police state measures.

So... no matter what the cause is, Russia has an incentive to keep it as quiet as possible.

What about using these things as false flag attacks?  Definitely not.  Why?  Because a few shells or rockets lobbed over the border is fairly easy to explain even if Ukraine is supposedly about to be snuffed out.  Lone artillery unit gets within range, fires off some ammo, gets crushed by the might Russian Airforces.  Great story!  Now compare this with massive infrastructure damage deep into Russia and uncomfortably close to Moscow.  Where's the obvious ability to retaliate?  Does this mean more deep strikes are coming?  How is this sort of thing to be prevented in the future?   Nope, that would be a terrible option for false flag attacks, especially when so many better options exist.

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

It's interesting, for all the talk of defeating Nazis, Russia seems intent on keeping the war away from normal Russians as a legit war, with deaths spiralling high, attacks on home soil. You would think Russia would want to tout this as a reason for mobilization but with all the lies about how Ukraine is on the ropes, I suppose they can't easily back out of the falsehoods.

Any mobilization for any reason tips off the Russian population that the "operation" is not going well.  While some would say "OK then, let's do this right!" there's also a lot of people that will start asking uncomfortable questions like... why is mobilization needed?  Why are we fighting in Ukraine in the first place?  You say this is a war against NATO, but if that's true then why aren't we taking the Baltic countries back?  That sort of thing.

Steve

[womble]

3 minutes ago, asurob said:

I 100 percent believe this is a false flag.  Little Vlad knows he needs to fully mobilize in order to stand a chance of breaking Ukraine (I personally don't believe that even if he does Russia can win) and has ordered these attacks inside Russia to legitimize it.  He has done it before and he is doing it now.

Simply too many happening at once for it to be Russian resistance or Ukraine...

 

I disagree. If it was a false flag op, the official drum-beaters would be shrieking from the rooftops about Nazi atrocities on the sacrosanct soil of the Motherland. Since they're not trying to get everyone angry about being attacked, I reckon it's "enemy action" for real.

Additionally, Russia's attempts at false flag deceptions have tended to be direct attacks on their own civilian population, rather than on their own military and POL infrastructure. So much less degradation of their war effort, and so much easier to raise indignation and hatred; attacks on legitimate military targets are both unwelcome signs of vulnerability and harder to spin as "atrocities".

[FancyCat]

Looks like it wasn't the main base but a fuel, storage site south of the oil refinery.

Something to keep in mind, aside from fuel needed for the military, as we saw with the earlier fuel depot attack, it spurs civilian anxiety about shortages. So far, Ukraine has done admirably, (assuming it is Ukraine) with these targeted, infrequent attacks, spaced out enough to let Russians feel better over the prior attack, then get a nice surprise waking up. Fuel depots probably have lower amounts of people at risk vs military bases and they do burn very well. Anyone in the region will see the smoke.

 

[dan/california]

Russian reconnaissance element bypassed Dibrovne and pushed south. Ukrainian forces were able to stop the enemy movement near Pashkove. Russian troops have found a hole in Ukrainian defensive lines and are now threatening to cut the railway between Barvinkove and Slovyansk.

From Militaryland.net summary today, Some on the Russian side has found the tiniest bit of a clue, and maybe the ground is drying out a little bit. Going to get hotter in the kitchen it would seem

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, asurob said:

I 100 percent believe this is a false flag.  Little Vlad knows he needs to fully mobilize in order to stand a chance of breaking Ukraine (I personally don't believe that even if he does Russia can win) and has ordered these attacks inside Russia to legitimize it.  He has done it before and he is doing it now.

Simply too many happening at once for it to be Russian resistance or Ukraine...

 

Heh... we cross posted.  See my previous post, but here are some more thoughts.

Russia HAS done some false flag attacks on its own soil.  They were limited and nobody paid any attention to them, apparently not even in Russia.  So you'd think they would do something bigger, right?  Perhaps, but why would they be blowing up stuff they actually need to fight the war?  Why would they be blowing up things which Russians might at least think are legitimate military targets?

Think about it.  Russia says Ukrainians are a bunch of Nazis bent on destroying Russia.  Why not blow up a school with a bunch of children in it?  How about blowing up some sort of Russian national landmark?  Down an aircraft, perhaps.  You know, things that Nazi terrorists would do.  Since Russian special services have done these sorts of things before, including murdering Russian children, why wouldn't they do it again?

Steve

[womble]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61154066

Another reason for UKR to be keen to get rid of the Russians sooner rather than later.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Sure sounded like a rocket attack.

Steve

[asurob]

17 minutes ago, womble said:

I disagree. If it was a false flag op, the official drum-beaters would be shrieking from the rooftops about Nazi atrocities on the sacrosanct soil of the Motherland. Since they're not trying to get everyone angry about being attacked, I reckon it's "enemy action" for real.

Additionally, Russia's attempts at false flag deceptions have tended to be direct attacks on their own civilian population, rather than on their own military and POL infrastructure. So much less degradation of their war effort, and so much easier to raise indignation and hatred; attacks on legitimate military targets are both unwelcome signs of vulnerability and harder to spin as "atrocities".

Maybe.  Perhaps the bear is starting to learn and adjust his propaganda.  Recognizing that they need a big deal in order to get the mobilization they clearly need to push forward into Ukraine.  I don't know.  I'm certainly not a Russian expert (unless you count all the Clancy I read in my younger days), but this many "accidents" on Russian soil within a few days of each other plus the dead oligarchs in Spain (plus their families).  Maybe I'm just too locked into Putin would do anything to survive including attacking his own military to get the results he needs.  Or too much Clancy on my part.  This feels like a false flag.

[asurob]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh... we cross posted.  See my previous post, but here are some more thoughts.

Russia HAS done some false flag attacks on its own soil.  They were limited and nobody paid any attention to them, apparently not even in Russia.  So you'd think they would do something bigger, right?  Perhaps, but why would they be blowing up stuff they actually need to fight the war?  Why would they be blowing up things which Russians might at least think are legitimate military targets?

Think about it.  Russia says Ukrainians are a bunch of Nazis bent on destroying Russia.  Why not blow up a school with a bunch of children in it?  How about blowing up some sort of Russian national landmark?  Down an aircraft, perhaps.  You know, things that Nazi terrorists would do.  Since Russian special services have done these sorts of things before, including murdering Russian children, why wouldn't they do it again?

Steve

Truth.  (and we did cross post :P) Again I'm spitballing here.  No evidence or proof just a gut.  The previous attack on Russian soil really didn't even get the public to blink.  Attack a school or a hospital near Moscow might do it sure.  But maybe special services has declined...you know...it takes a cold bastard to murder a bunch of kids. (Vlad would but maybe down the chain of command they have that crazy morals thing) ..again I don't know and certainly have zero evidence or anything...this simply doesn't feel like an attack.   Just my gut.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, asurob said:

Maybe.  Perhaps the bear is starting to learn and adjust his propaganda.  Recognizing that they need a big deal in order to get the mobilization they clearly need to push forward into Ukraine.  I don't know.  I'm certainly not a Russian expert (unless you count all the Clancy I read in my younger days), but this many "accidents" on Russian soil within a few days of each other plus the dead oligarchs in Spain (plus their families).  Maybe I'm just too locked into Putin would do anything to survive including attacking his own military to get the results he needs.  Or too much Clancy on my part.  This feels like a false flag.

Russia would keep documenting the false flag attacks as they happened to build that narrative that you're talking about.  They would not keep each one out of the public eye until there was a bunch to present to people.

Mind you, I don't think anybody here is saying that Putin doesn't love a good false flag attack.  As I just mentioned, he's done quite a few nasty ones in his time and he's done plenty in this war already.  And every single one of them has been front and center in the Russian controlled media.  Because getting your people all fired up about something is really the point of a false flag attack.  Since it's not on state controlled media, it effectively doesn't exist for Russians.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, asurob said:

Truth.  (and we did cross post :P) Again I'm spitballing here.  No evidence or proof just a gut.  The previous attack on Russian soil really didn't even get the public to blink.  Attack a school or a hospital near Moscow might do it sure.  But maybe special services has declined...you know...it takes a cold bastard to murder a bunch of kids. (Vlad would but maybe down the chain of command they have that crazy morals thing) ..again I don't know and certainly have zero evidence or anything...this simply doesn't feel like an attack.   Just my gut.

Russian special services likely axe murdered a 4 year old and his mother in Spain and a shot to death a teenage daughter and her mother in Moscow all within the last week.  It doesn't get much more cold blooded than that.

So again, I'm not saying Russia isn't capable of it.  They are.  What I'm saying is they wouldn't keep it quiet.  Can't fire up the population if they don't know about it.

Steve

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, asurob said:

Truth.  (and we did cross post :P) Again I'm spitballing here.  No evidence or proof just a gut.  The previous attack on Russian soil really didn't even get the public to blink.  Attack a school or a hospital near Moscow might do it sure.  But maybe special services has declined...you know...it takes a cold bastard to murder a bunch of kids.

Wouldn't be the first time.  The Apartment bombings in 1999 killed 300 and injured 1,000.  The most likely suspects are the FSB.

[MikeyD]

The fires north of Moscow were also associated with rockets and missile development. If these attacks are at all linked I don't think Ukraine would have sufficient access to set the fires/bombs or whatever. That increases the likelihood of an inside job. FSB has not been particularly pleased with this war since day one and have been roughly handled by Putin. They'd possess the necessary spycraft to cause such mischief to demonstrate their displeasure.