How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Actually Tochka-U is old missile and can be relativly easy intercepted even by ground forces AD assets. Our Tochkas are also often intercepеpted by Russian AD. 

But you would expect that at least that close to the frontline, Russian SEAD would be effective enough so that your air defence wouldn't be able to shoot those down. Seems that Russians suck at it too  

[DesertFox]

Sacked...Do we track that?

 

 

[Combatintman]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

But you would expect that at least that close to the frontline, Russian SEAD would be effective enough so that your air defence wouldn't be able to shoot those down. Seems that Russians suck at it too  

To be fair to the Russians - there is only one military that is any good at SEAD and that is the US.  It pioneered the techniques and spent a lot of effort in acquiring the means to do it competently.  Nobody else spends enough money to properly resource the capability.  A jamming pod and an anti-radiation missile strapped to a fast jet (which is pretty much the extent of every other nation bar the US's capability) do not a SEAD capability make.

[Combatintman]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sacked...Do we track that?

 

 

At least he won't have to bull his boots, Sam Browne and brasses for the 09 May parade ... he's probably pretty chuffed.

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Will be looking for more confirmation on this one. This would essentially almost decapitate the Russian forces in Kherson if true.

I guess there is some truth to this:

 

 

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I think there were some interim steps in there but that pretty much captures it.  I guess it comes down to "want vs reality" and this is all Putin negotiating with Putin while thousands die...yep, checks out based on historical references.

There is a breaking point for the Russians here, the question is "where is it?"

What's going to be interesting (read 'super dangerous') is how Putin reacts when that breakpoint is reached. 

[Battlefront.com]

42 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Thread regarding the loss of the chemical plant due to fire, sabotage is a much more likely reason considering the essential nature of this complex to Russian industry, war and civilian.

https://twitter.com/Spoonamore/status/1517510440598843394?t=AwOU57emZn6uU4leyOGkzQ&s=19

Basically a Schweinfurt situation, but with chemicals.  Interesting.  The guy seems to know what he's talking about, but we'll just have to see.  What he said about many of these chemicals being of the VOC variety certainly complicates things for industrial needs.  The point he made about how difficult it is to find new sources on short notice is something I've been harping about being the primary reason Russia can't fight a long war.  Sanctions cut them off from alternative sources of supply and losing a domestic supplier, no matter what the reason, is going to be highly problematic.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, CivE said:

Finally, a (minor) topic where my water resources engineering experience may be relevant to this thread. Checking out this dam on google maps, I would say that it would be a poor target for sabotage. It appears to function to maintain local river depth for navigation and for diversion to agriculture. It would have very little flood control function, and would be more likely to be damaged by a flood than to cause one by failing. A quick look around finds several similar structures in the region that would have a higher potential for economic or infrastructure damage if they failed. If this was a target, it was probably a target of opportunity, not choice. Given the background rate of accidental infrastructure failure, I would hesitate to read too much into it.

The unrelated flooding pictured in the tweet, with the church on the hill, appears to be the Desna River in Bryansk, no where near the dam pictured on the Kuban river.

But mostly I registered (after lurking since the CMBO demo) to say thank you to everyone participating in this discussion. For what it's worth, I think the updates, analysis, and debate here are as good or better than anything I'm reading or listening to from professional news outfits and think-tanks. Thank you for being here and doing what you do.

Thank you for taking the time to log in with this info and glad to see another CMBO fan from days of yor saying hello

We must always keep in mind how HUGE Rusia is and how under funded its infrastructure is.  On any given day I'm sure something significant breaks, fails, burns, etc.  Now people are specifically looking for evidence of this sort of stuff, which means we're likely going to have a lot more Tweets about things which are more probably routine than sabotage.  Thank you CivE for helping us remember that.

The chemical factory burning down is another example of caution.  Aging infrastructure and shoddy internal processes when combined with increased pressure to produce (I'm assuming this plant increased production to make up for foreign shortages) is likely to result in accidents.  Could be that is all this one is.  Could be that another big factory burns down tomorrow for entirely different accidental reasons, which is the start of a pattern BUT could be a pattern of neglect and incompetence rather than deliberate attacks.

Still, I think there is something deliberate going on.  It "feels right".  But it's just a hunch.

Steve

[db_zero]

30 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

To be fair to the Russians - there is only one military that is any good at SEAD and that is the US.  It pioneered the techniques and spent a lot of effort in acquiring the means to do it competently.  Nobody else spends enough money to properly resource the capability.  A jamming pod and an anti-radiation missile strapped to a fast jet (which is pretty much the extent of every other nation bar the US's capability) do not a SEAD capability make.

To add to this-the US has squadrons specifically designed to do this task and train extensively to do SEAD. CAS is also another specialty the US has dedicated resources assigned. There is a pipeline for personnel and a very rigorous selection process for personnel who are going to be calling in air support. There is a shortage and the military is offering substantial bonuses to fill slots. 

Really a lot of the "back-end" specialties requires resources and highly skilled personnel to make it work. That requires motivated and educated people to make it all work. Setting up a secured computer network, communication network and other non-combat, but vital jobs is not for the non motivated and non educated or trainable sort of people.

The Russians with their conscripted army is not up to the tasks and they probably spent too much time, money and effort on the teeth of their military and not enough on the non glamorous, but vital tail element.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

What's going to be interesting (read 'super dangerous') is how Putin reacts when that breakpoint is reached. 

Yup.

I see Putin going out more like Hitler rather than Yanukovych.  A typical path for a dictator in exile is for a nation to accept a new "special" resident with the blessing of the international community.  The concept being that going quietly might be in everybody's interests, so make it happen.

However, Putin now is looking to be on too many Most Wanted lists for prosecution.  That puts him more in the company of Milošević where he was so toxic that quiet retirement wasn't an option.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting re-interpretation of the Russian announcement of war aims.  This is from today's ISW report:

Quote

Minnekaev stated that Russian control of southern Ukraine provides Russia a future capability to conduct an offensive toward Transnistria, rather than announcing an imminent Russian offensive toward Moldova. Minnekaev said Russian control of southern Ukraine will provide “another way out to Transnistria,” the illegally Russian-occupied strip of territory in Moldova, where he falsely claimed ”there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” We do not read this as a statement of intent to conduct a major offensive operation toward Moldova. An offensive toward Moldova would likely have been phrased around securing a “land corridor” [сухопутный коридор] to Moldova, much like the Russian land corridor to Crimea. Even if Russian forces did seek to resume major offensive operations toward Mykolaiv and on to Odesa, they are highly unlikely to have the capability to do so.

This confirms what we already sussed out... Russia isn't seriously saying they intend to advance towards Moldova any time soon, rather it's just tossed out there to get people upset.  Ineffective in the West, so probably there for domestic consumption.

The rest of the report confirms my thoughts from yesterday.  The big offensive (sweeping attacks, north and south pincers) is not on the table any more.  If it ever was.  Could be they planned on a singular attack from and around Izyum southward right from the start and the days of shelling and failed attacks elsewhere were just distractions.  Very costly distractions, so I'm not sure that was their original intent.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another home made bomber.  This one looks like the grenade wound up detonating over the driver's area, with hatch possibly open.  The commander and gunner got out, but driver not seen exiting.

 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, db_zero said:

To add to this-the US has squadrons specifically designed to do this task and train extensively to do SEAD. CAS is also another specialty the US has dedicated resources assigned. There is a pipeline for personnel and a very rigorous selection process for personnel who are going to be calling in air support. There is a shortage and the military is offering substantial bonuses to fill slots. 

Really a lot of the "back-end" specialties requires resources and highly skilled personnel to make it work. That requires motivated and educated people to make it all work. Setting up a secured computer network, communication network and other non-combat, but vital jobs is not for the non motivated and non educated or trainable sort of people.

The Russians with their conscripted army is not up to the tasks and they probably spent too much time, money and effort on the teeth of their military and not enough on the non glamorous, but vital tail element.

It is apparent to anyone looking that Russians are unwilling to fly strike packages deeper inside Ukraine (at least we don't get to see it). This is obviously because of Ukrainian AD deterring them. Now I'd think that at least around the frontline Russians would be able get enough air presence that any radar that starts working is attacked by ARMs. That's a bare minimum to be able to do useful CAS. The fact that they apparently can't achieve even this is baffling.

In light of that, I wonder how much of an obstacle will RU AF be when Ukraine finally takes to offensive. S300 is a relatively mobile system that maybe should be able to keep up with the attacking forces, especially in combination with Buks and low level AD ( new Stormer/ Starstreak, TORs etc). This sounds really quite optimistic.

 

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting re-interpretation of the Russian announcement of war aims.  This is from today's ISW report:

This confirms what we already sussed out... Russia isn't seriously saying they intend to advance towards Moldova any time soon, rather it's just tossed out there to get people upset.  Ineffective in the West, so probably there for domestic consumption.

The rest of the report confirms my thoughts from yesterday.  The big offensive (sweeping attacks, north and south pincers) is not on the table any more.  If it ever was.  Could be they planned on a singular attack from and around Izyum southward right from the start and the days of shelling and failed attacks elsewhere were just distractions.  Very costly distractions, so I'm not sure that was their original intent.

Steve

I interpret it as mostly sabre-rattling directed at Moldova. The country took quite an unexpected turn towards EU in months leading to the war and there isn't much that Russia can do with it at the moment. Ejecting Russian peacekeepers in case of Ukrainians getting an upper hand in the war is on the cards.  I can't see any prospect of Russia moving towards Odessa, but words cost nothing.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[BeondTheGrave]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

It is apparent to anyone looking that Russians are unwilling to fly strike packages deeper inside Ukraine (at least we don't get to see it). This is obviously because of Ukrainian AD deterring them. Now I'd think that at least around the frontline Russians would be able get enough air presence that any radar that starts working is attacked by ARMs. That's a bare minimum to be able to do useful CAS. The fact that they apparently can't achieve even this is baffling.

In light of that, I wonder how much of an obstacle will RU AF be when Ukraine finally takes to offensive. S300 is a relatively mobile system that maybe should be able to keep up with the attacking forces, especially in combination with Buks and low level AD ( new Stormer/ Starstreak, TORs etc). This sounds really quite optimistic.

 

Even without PGMs, CAS can start iron bombing several KM away from the front line. Even longer if they have trained on how to 'loft' their bombs. With speed and altitude you'd be surprised how far a bomb would fly. Now, speed and altitude also make bombing pretty inaccurate. IDK if Russian CAS are still using unguided rockets, but theyre obviously short range too. Add to it, Ukrainian AD is probably not that close to the front lines. I mean MANPADs sure, but you would want to avoid siting valuable assets in range of Russian artillery. A couple 152mm shells or an MLRS attack would cause significant problems to an SA-11 battery. 

Which is all to say there is probably a zone by which Russia can toss out some bombs and scoot away without too much risk to life and airframe. Is it accurate? Will it to much to break up Ukrainian positions? Absolutely not. But you could do it without establishing consistent SEAD and with only taking a few losses to enemy fire. And if the higher ups just want to see you flying sorties and coming home with empty racks, does it matter if youre helping the ground pounders or not? 

[MikeyD]

What did that chart a couple days back on the thread state? That of the fixed wing aircraft initially deployed for the invasion Russia has lost something like 50%. That's staggering number even if, in theory, there are hundreds of aircraft available to replace them.

[InterestedCivilian]

Hi all,

i appreciate all of the expertise on this forum and possess none myself.  So here’s a question about Putin’s next move.  The consensus here seems to be that Russia lost much more in men and equipment than it gained in territory over the past 5 days.  Meanwhile, Putin has signaled a new openness to talks, maybe including a cease-fire, with the UN Sec-Gen.  Is this a gambit to either gain an operational pause when Russia needs it most (their army is near spent, Ukraine is finally ready for serious couter-attacks)?  And if Ukraine declines to pause, then it risks losing support from wobbly NATO allies who are always in favor of “peace”?

 

 

 

 

 

[Probus]

Closing in on 600 pages! I just wanted to thank everyone for the extremely great content you guys have been posting and the really in depth analysis offered. I stay riveted to this thread, let me tell ya. It's so great my wife even quotes to me from it!  Now that's saying somethin'!

[DesertFox]

 

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Sacked...Do we track that?

 

 

thanks yes we are tracking,  Kisel was dumped a few weeks back but this other dude is a new entry.

[FancyCat]

Belgium is looking into supplying M109A4BE SPGs to Ukraine. Very lovely, Zelensky has sounded a note of approval regarding allied shipments of requested arms in his daily communications.

 

 

[keas66]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

Well that's an inconvenient and unpleasant looking truth now isn't it . Maybe one step above still importing Natural Gas . One wonders how one  would argue this out now as the German Chancellor ? Exporting Weapons to Pre-War Russia  - Good -  Sending Needed Arms to a Besieged Ukraine Bad ?  It's all very icky .

[DesertFox]

 

 

Edited April 23, 2022 by DesertFox

[DesertFox]

LOL!

 

[dan/california]

As Steve has previously mentioned, the Russians are losing a battle group per day, and depending on the how that damage is distributed that could be two or three battle groups combat ineffective. They can't do this very for long.