How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Maybe it's just me, but a infantry army that is roadbound and a mechanized army that is roadbound, the infantry army should still be outclassed but Ukraine is holding on.

Still, the biggest argument for the war is going poorly for Russia is the fact they abandoned the northern front.

Interesting you mention Kherson, a few Ukrainian officials fled at the beginning of the war, looks like those defections are directly related to the poor defense in the south.

Still, personally the reasoning for the withdrawa of the northern front is ridiculous. If you really wanted to give peace overtures, simply pausing artillery and missile fire onto cities is a sound way of conveying overtures.

[Battlefront.com]

A tiny companion video of the Ukrainian inside the T-72 and explaining what he saw (BTW, I've been inside a T-72 and it's TIGHT even for a fit average height European/American)

VERY interesting video of a hit-and-run attack's aftermath.  Looks like they blew up a culvert in the road and shot up two Russian trucks from both sides.  The ambushers are hastily scavenging weapons and ammo.  Note that they pay little attention to the larger supply truck as it apparently doesn't contain anything worth sticking around for.

The amount of JUNK that the first vehicle, and possibly the second vehicle, is toting around is amazing.

I don't see blood, I don't see bodies.  I'm going to guess there was another Ukraine truck present and they already departed with prisoners.

Weather and ground conditions look consistent with this being very recent footage.  Both trucks have later versions of the circle identifier, indicating these vehicles had been in the north.  Maybe Kharkiv area?

Steve

[dan/california]

Allow me to reiterate one point, if those M777s have to have Polish lead NCOs, and Lithuanian battery commanders to get in the fight in time, those people will be found, shoved in UA uniforms and rehearsed on the fact they grew up near the relevant border. More likely they have been standing around waiting on the guns for weeks. In case folks haven't noticed the Poles and the Czechs, and the Baltic states are all in on this little party. Because they REALLY don't want round 2 in front of Warsaw. The Lithuanians can be part of the "Belarusian Legion". 

[sburke]

50 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So, merely cuz lying orcs/RTtrolls, feeding the same 5 loons (Ritter, Helmer, MoonofAB, Saker, etc.) in turn cited endlessly by Western CT addicts at both ends of the political horseshoe.

...it necessarily follows that Ukraine cannot possibly be encountering critical shortages of: 

1. vehicles

2. fuels

3. ammo

4. skilled manpower?

....Hmm, talk about sticking one's head in the sand. And you're about the last person on here I expected to hear this from.

I am not asking anyone to prove a negative here. I am just trying to pierce the protective fog the UA has brilliantly wrapped around itself. 

Because I am deeply worried that letting the Russians get their breath back and dig in in place rather than continuing to keep them running around fighting fires over the next 60 days is *extremely* risky.  That's at a Sun Tzu level.  

UNLESS the ability of UA to sustain offensive operations is in fact a lot less than we believe.

err mot quite sure what to make of this, but my own personal concept of how I spend my time is to not waste it on folks who are clearly not working off facts and in opposition to them.    I mean geez how many wrecks does Russia have to leave on the battlefield before these folks realize they should be replacing Ukraine with Russia for most of that list.  I don't think that is a matter of me sticking my head in the sand, but rather not being willing to waste time on folks who just make sh1t up.  This was the sum of that entire list -

...it necessarily follows that Ukraine cannot possibly be encountering critical shortages of: 

shortages yes.  Critical shortages no.  Ukraine has the full weight of NATO behind it. Granted figuring out what is the best aid to send now versus future aid is a big discussion, but there is a crap load of military and nonmilitary aid flooding into Ukraine.  The UA isn't creating a protective fog.  They do practice good opsec while at the same time pushing real hard for more useful aid and not just lip service (see bozo from Germany's comments). 

 

I mean c'mon, statements like this

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

Really? Just because the Russians will sell off their fuel etc for booze doesn't mean the UKR is and what militias are they referring to?  This is just made-up nonsense.  Sadly I am sure they believe it.  Just like they probably believe the forces launched at Kiev were there just to batter the UKR army and have successfully completed their mission and some have been awarded "Guards" status as they now reorient for the real goal. 

[LongLeftFlank]

40 minutes ago, sburke said:

err mot quite sure what to make of this, but my own personal concept of how I spend my time is to not waste it on folks who are clearly not working off facts and in opposition to them.    I mean geez how many wrecks does Russia have to leave on the battlefield before these folks realize they should be replacing Ukraine with Russia for most of that list.  I don't think that is a matter of me sticking my head in the sand, but rather not being willing to waste time on folks who just make sh1t up.  This was the sum of that entire list -

...it necessarily follows that Ukraine cannot possibly be encountering critical shortages of: 

shortages yes.  Critical shortages no.  Ukraine has the full weight of NATO behind it. Granted figuring out what is the best aid to send now versus future aid is a big discussion, but there is a crap load of military and nonmilitary aid flooding into Ukraine.  The UA isn't creating a protective fog.  They do practice good opsec while at the same time pushing real hard for more useful aid and not just lip service (see bozo from Germany's comments). 

 

I mean c'mon, statements like this

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

Really? Just because the Russians will sell off their fuel etc for booze doesn't mean the UKR is and what militias are they referring to?  This is just made-up nonsense.  Sadly I am sure they believe it.  Just like they probably believe the forces launched at Kiev were there just to batter the UKR army and have successfully completed their mission and some have been awarded "Guards" status as they now reorient for the real goal. 

You know I love you, man!

1. And you, and the other refutations above, all make sense.

2. Which is why I continue to believe that once the Russian offensives between Izyum and Rubizhne are confirmed to be a fizzle, the UA needs to go over to the attack, hard. [Since I think we just all agreed it can!]

Now, not later.

3. IMHO (and I think @Battlefront.com identified the same sector), they should hit -- HARD --  along that lately static front between Zaphorizhe (Dniepr bend) and Donetsk. Which the UA can get large forces to and the Russians can't!

4. If they can hit within 2 weeks -- not 60 days! -- I could readily see those crappy RA regiments collapsing and fleeing in disorder. 2 months from now, not so sure.

5. While 'Stavka' struggles to rush in reinforcements or even air support. On the left, their Kherson army is bisected by the Dniepr. On the right, the Donbass 'republics' are bled white, an empty shell.

And the Azov sea is at their back.

6. So if they have the combat power, the UA can roll the muzhiks right back down to Azov and annihilate them. Whole units taken prisoner and miserably phoning their mommas in Saratov. Retake Mariupol and relieve the heroic defenders. That will be an earthquake felt in Moscow and right across Mother Russia....

My thesis.

Edited April 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Saw a report that Der Spiegel apparently ran a story yesterday that there is a possibility of a no-confidence vote for Scholz as early as next week.  The impetus is a proposal to override his arms policy which, if passed, would lay conditions for a no-confidence vote.

I didn't see anything about this in English media and my quick poke at Der Spiegel didn't turn up the article.

That should be interesting.

Steve

[edit] - I found it buried WAY down the page.  Unfortunately it is behind a paywall:

https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/friedrich-merz-versus-kanzler-olaf-scholz-wagt-die-union-das-projekt-kanzler-sturz-a-8782cd1b-9b16-4d1a-89e4-6f37065fc8fd?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

[Battlefront.com]

Another point of interest.  There has now been a second "murder suicide" of a Russian gas company executive, this time in Spain.  Like the previous one in Moscow, it looks really fishy.  Now that there's two, that's enough to indicate something is going on.  Oligarchs don't tend to kill their wives and kids with their own hands, and they certainly don't have much of a track record of suicide:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-oligarch-family-dead-spain-1699660

Steve

[BornGinger]

12 hours ago, Desertor said:

hand trembling Parkinson, and loss of mobility in half of the body stroke.

That sounds like one of those alcoholists who hasn't had their daily five bottles of wine.

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

You know I love you, man!

1. And you, and the other refutations above, all make sense.

2. Which is why I continue to believe that once the Russian offensives between Izyum and Rubizhne are confirmed to be a fizzle, the UA needs to go over to the attack, hard. [Since I think we just all agreed it can!]

Now, not later.

3. IMHO (and I think @Battlefront.com identified the same sector), they should hit -- HARD --  along that lately static front between Zaphorizhe (Dniepr bend) and Donetsk. Which the UA can get large forces to and the Russians can't!

4. If they can hit within 2 weeks -- not 60 days! -- I could readily see those crappy RA regiments collapsing and fleeing in disorder. 2 months from now, not so sure.

5. While 'Stavka' struggles to rush in reinforcements or even air support. On the left, their Kherson army is bisected by the Dniepr. On the right, the Donbass 'republics' are bled white, an empty shell.

And the Azov sea is at their back.

6. So if they have the combat power, the UA can roll the muzhiks right back down to Azov and annihilate them. Whole units taken prisoner and miserably phoning their mommas in Saratov. Retake Mariupol and relieve the heroic defenders. That will be an earthquake felt in Moscow and right across Mother Russia....

My thesis.

you make me blush  

Regarding offense, I'll be honest.  I am afraid to even guess what the UA will do as 

1.  I'm no military expert

2.  UA has shown an ability to be really creative and cognizant of their strengths and weaknesses.

3. Russia can still deal some hurt even if it does so at great cost so I am unsure how much the UA wants to give them targets they can actually hit versus the current RA strategy of simply targeting civilian infrastructure. The UA has on at least two occasions gotten complacent and allowed the RA to target barracks while still occupied.

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another point of interest.  There has now been a second "murder suicide" of a Russian gas company executive, this time in Spain.  Like the previous one in Moscow, it looks really fishy.  Now that there's two, that's enough to indicate something is going on.  Oligarchs don't tend to kill their wives and kids with their own hands, and they certainly don't have much of a track record of suicide:

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-oligarch-family-dead-spain-1699660

Steve

Seens it might be the 3rd suicide.

These two and there was another one in Surrey, England, age 58, who supposedly hanged himself 2 weeks ago in his $18 million custom mansion. Mikhail Watford was worth tens of billions and told his neighbor last year that he was on Putin's list.

Ukrainian oligarch Mikhail Watford found dead in UK mansion (nypost.com)

The father of three — who made his fortune in oil and gas after the demise of the Soviet Union — was found hanged in his garage,

[Taranis]

Ukraine, Donbass, towards Avdiivka. April 21, 2022. Here, on the right, Andriy Grigorich, 47, commander of the brigade. He comes from Zaporozhia. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

 

Andriy Grigorich, 47 years old and commander of the brigade, observes the Russian positions, towards Avdiïvka, in the Donbass, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

Ammunition stocks. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR “LE MONDE”

* 82mm shells

 

A soldier smokes in front of a stock of ammunition, on a Ukrainian military base, near Avdiïvka, in the Donbass, on April 21, 2022. LAURENCE GEAI / MYOP FOR "LE MONDE"

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

Russia can still deal some hurt even if it does so at great cost so I am unsure how much the UA wants to give them targets they can actually hit

Someone on here a while back was talking about how U.S. Grant or one of the Civil War generals suddenly realized the enemy commanders were as scared of him as he was of them.

At some point, the UA is going to need to take back their lost lands and eject the RA. There are always good reasons for waiting, but the other team isn't idle.

I disagree with the view that the Russian war machine gets notably weaker with the mere passage of time, bleeding out from sanctions and whatnot. I mean, even if it does at a macro level, that weakness will take some time to become meaningful on the battlefield. In the meantime, they are still humans; even Russians learn and improvise, especially when sheer survival is at stake.

At *this moment*, RA frontline combat power and C4I (or whatever it is now) is as shoddy, their vehicles, ammo stocks and ready reserves depleted, their air and missile forces overstrained, their troop morale as low as it is going to be in the foreseeable future.  A 60 day respite is a crucial breathing space that could make a UA attack far costlier.

Don't let them off the ropes, Ukraine! they are 4x as big a country. The stakes are existential.

[Alphaomega]

Now that we are living a cold war gone hot in Europe - something I had prepared for 1973-1983, I am deeply interested in any insights how a NATO/WP conflict may have gone based on lessons learned so far in this conflict. I know it's been 40 years, and NATO would be been fighting Ukraine, et. al. Are there any parallels, or has it been just too much time passed to make any comparisons?

[Taranis]

Russian troops attempted to advance near Trudolyubivka, Kherson region, but failed

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I disagree with the view that the Russian war machine gets notably weaker with the mere passage of time, bleeding out from sanctions and whatnot. I mean, even if it does at a macro level, that weakness will take some time to become meaningful on the battlefield. In the meantime, they are still humans; even Russians learn and improvise, especially when sheer survival is at stake.

Sitting around without Ukrainians picking them off, I agree that the force doesn't get significantly weaker (unless there's a revolt, of course).  But I don't see that happening. 

The calculations of what Russia has for forces available to put on defense is simply woefully inadequate for the job.  There are just too few of them, even with my generous numbers, to prevent the Ukrainians from selecting where/when/how to cause Russians pain.  Even if Ukraine is not capable of conducting a large scale offensive for a little while, small scale assaults here and there, artillery, and partisan activities should make life for Russians very difficult generally and perhaps significant worse at chosen spots.

Right now Russia is still probably losing 500 soldiers a day to KIA/WIA.  If it takes Ukraine 30 days to muster enough strength to make a significant counter attack, that's 15,000 less Russians that will stand in their way.  And if they don't overextend themselves, Ukraine might take as little as 1,500 friendly casualties in the process.

My concern about Ukrainian counter offensives is probably the same as theirs... not wanting to overextend themselves and give Russia an opportunity to strike a meaningful blow to Ukraine's offensive capabilities.  The problem with guessing what Ukraine can do and when has to do with the fact we don't really know what has for reserves as of, say, 2 weeks from now.  If things are further along and in better condition than they can attack sooner, otherwise they need to wait.

I've said since the very first day of this war (well, actually before the war) that time is on Ukraine's side.  That's been true right through today and I don't see any reason to feel that's changed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, sburke said:

Seens it might be the 3rd suicide.

These two and there was another one in Surrey, England, age 58, who supposedly hanged himself 2 weeks ago in his $18 million custom mansion. Mikhail Watford was worth tens of billions and told his neighbor last year that he was on Putin's list.

Ukrainian oligarch Mikhail Watford found dead in UK mansion (nypost.com)

The father of three — who made his fortune in oil and gas after the demise of the Soviet Union — was found hanged in his garage,

OK, so what the Hell is the connection?  Since they are all in the same business, maybe they were connected enough that they started plotting to oust Putin?  Or is this a case where these guys were kinda on the outs anyway and have a large amount of their fortune in Russian banks that can have access to them if they are dead?

I can't see this being a power play within the gas/oil industry.  Doesn't seem much benefit to murdering your own when times are tough.

Do me a favor, if you haven't already... please note dead oligarchs on your list.  It's not military related, obviously, but I'm curious if we can spot a pattern and tracking is necessary for that.

Please and thank you

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My concern about Ukrainian counter offensives is probably the same as theirs... not wanting to overextend themselves and give Russia an opportunity to strike a meaningful blow to Ukraine's offensive capabilities.

Steve

Yup. 

IV.1. The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy 

Edited April 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

The only reason we know this is a Deep Fake is it's posted before May 9.  If this were posted after I might think it was real footage:

 

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so what the Hell is the connection?  Since they are all in the same business, maybe they were connected enough that they started plotting to oust Putin?  Or is this a case where these guys were kinda on the outs anyway and have a large amount of their fortune in Russian banks that can have access to them if they are dead?

I can't see this being a power play within the gas/oil industry.  Doesn't seem much benefit to murdering your own when times are tough.

Do me a favor, if you haven't already... please note dead oligarchs on your list.  It's not military related, obviously, but I'm curious if we can spot a pattern and tracking is necessary for that.

Please and thank you

Steve

done  

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Russian troops attempted to advance near Trudolyubivka, Kherson region, but failed

Could be this:

 

[Machor]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva

 

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm curious about this. Is UA getting fresh deliveries? Its a very effective platform but certainly vulnerable.

I swear I read a tweet the Poles had allowed their TB2s in the assembly line to be fast-tracked for Ukraine, but I couldn't find it. The next best evidence I could find was this:

Erm, it shouldn't take six months to assemble a TB2.

Keep an eye on Antonov flights out of Çorlu in Turkey.

 

[Huba]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

I'm wondering if about week 2 all the staff geeks put forth a report on stuff like this and what we are seeing isn't a planned sequence of donations. I think most people look at it and see it as kind of random, but is it? I could see a couple plane loads of UA prior service reservists flying to Oklahoma 6 weeks ago for training on the M777's that are being delivered now. Those are advanced pieces with integrated computers and such so it isn't like you can just swap out the crew from an old D52. If we see a HIMARS fire within the next couple weeks then it would have had to have happened. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a substantial number on UA reservists in western nations being trained up on other things as well. I think someone said there was rumor of UA pilots in the UK doing work ups on the Eurofighter. Who knows what other weapon systems are going to be delivered over the course of the next weeks and months and the more high tech the more lead time is needed for crew training.

No likes left so analog +1 to this. I'm sure this is what is happening. They might not have it planned to a particular day or vehicle, but it's far from random. There's no point announcing really big ticket items like planes, AD etc at the very beginning of crews training, it's escalatory without being practically useful. 

I wonder to what degree Zelensky's pleas for help (somehow mostly directed at UE) are really political in nature, while in the longer term it is assured that materiel will be coming from the US. Granted, the Soviet type AFVs are useful and important now, but some MRAPs as in support package from Australia? Sure UA can use some, everything helps, but the political dimension is more important here I think.

[DesertFox]

Love this humour...

 

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so what the Hell is the connection?  Since they are all in the same business, maybe they were connected enough that they started plotting to oust Putin?  Or is this a case where these guys were kinda on the outs anyway and have a large amount of their fortune in Russian banks that can have access to them if they are dead?

I can't see this being a power play within the gas/oil industry.  Doesn't seem much benefit to murdering your own when times are tough.

Do me a favor, if you haven't already... please note dead oligarchs on your list.  It's not military related, obviously, but I'm curious if we can spot a pattern and tracking is necessary for that.

Please and thank you

Steve

It could be a preventive measure - take out few that had it coming anyway but are not useful, and the rest will lose  stupid ideas and get in line.

[DesertFox]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saw a report that Der Spiegel apparently ran a story yesterday that there is a possibility of a no-confidence vote for Scholz as early as next week.  The impetus is a proposal to override his arms policy which, if passed, would lay conditions for a no-confidence vote.

I didn't see anything about this in English media and my quick poke at Der Spiegel didn't turn up the article.

That should be interesting.

Steve

[edit] - I found it buried WAY down the page.  Unfortunately it is behind a paywall:

https://www-spiegel-de.translate.goog/politik/deutschland/friedrich-merz-versus-kanzler-olaf-scholz-wagt-die-union-das-projekt-kanzler-sturz-a-8782cd1b-9b16-4d1a-89e4-6f37065fc8fd?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Yeah that´s confirmed. Let´s see what the parliament has to say:

 

Translation via Google:

According to parliamentary group leader Johann Wadephul, there is a clear parliamentary majority in the Union for the delivery of heavy weapons to Ukraine. Now the CDU and CSU would like to urge the federal government to submit a request for delivery. With a motion in the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU parliamentary group wants to urge the federal government to move on the question of deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

Union faction Vice Johann Wadephul (CDU) said on Friday in the ZDF "Morgenmagazin" when asked whether the threat with the application and a roll-call vote was valid, the Union had decided to do so and bring the application. There is a clear parliamentary majority for the delivery of heavy weapons. The majority, if not all, of the Greens and the FDP are in favour, and there are also important voices in the SPD.

The Union has been supporting this for weeks. "Germany can deliver," emphasized Wadephul. That must be clarified in the Bundestag. If the question of compulsory vaccination was a decision of conscience, then this question was all the more so. Ukraine is exposed to a “terrible war of annihilation”. One experiences an “unparalleled breach of civilization”. That must be stopped. That's only possible with heavy weapons, said the CDU politician. Germany must be there and “effectively help” Ukraine.

The Union offers to talk about the text of the application. But the content must be clear: “Germany must deliver”. Mariupol continues to resist - feared mass grave with 9000 dead in Manhush Wadephul sees the ring exchange planned by the federal government - the delivery of heavy weapons to other countries, which in turn send heavy equipment to Ukraine - as insufficient. "It's one excuse after another. It's too little and too late," he said.

dpa/cvb

Edited April 22, 2022 by DesertFox