How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/skullduggery/id1333621434?i=1000558080864

DC media blob still doesn't get how bad the Russian military position is.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like Russia is getting ready for the big May 9th parade.  Either that or it's sending the parade forces into battle:

Earlier there was some discussion about this particular Twitter account and how it is not the real Igor Girkin.  I'm pretty sure this was set up for information warfare in 2014.  Girkin's name was certainly something people would search for.  If they searched they would find this Twitter account and think "I have found the guy!" and then they would be obligated to see truth instead of his lies.  Notice that the account still has a great video showing the lie that separatists were getting everything from captured Ukrainian Army.  It's a good video to watch even if you already know what it shows.

Steve

Some well timed sugar in the fuel tanks of the parade vehicles on the evening of May 8th would be the biggest propaganda coup in the history of mankind. I do wonder if the parade forces will be marched down to the Donbas on May 10th, or is this the Praetorian Guard that Putin can't let out of sight of Moscow. Obviosly if Putin had two working brain cells, and any of those vehicles have working guns, they would be in the Donbas now.

[Battlefront.com]

A glimpse at what the battlefield looks like with all this rain.  No idea where this was taken.  Note that they have ample AT weapons and the soldier at the end got pretty lucky by the looks of his helmet.

 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I do wonder if the parade forces will be marched down to the Donbas on May 10th, or is this the Praetorian Guard that Putin can't let out of sight of Moscow.

I hope so, you see that T-14 in the background? Lets get them into action! With any hope the transmission troubles will keep up and they'll become tractor fodder. 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I hope so, you see that T-14 in the background? Lets get them into action! With any hope the transmission troubles will keep up and they'll become tractor fodder. 

Nah, that's just a nicely primped T-72.  Putting aside the turret isn't right, it has 6 road wheels while a T-14 has 7.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Someone attempted to determine what % of the Russian equipment that entered Ukraine in February has been lost:

 

[dan/california]

 We see Ukr forces with NLAWS and Panzerfaust/RPG type weapons all the time. You see a lot less video of them even carrying Javelins. Are the Ukrainians holding the Javelins back for reaction forces to contain Russian breakthroughs, or otherwise issuing them only to specific units with specific jobs where the range really matters? Don't tell me if that is sensitive info.

[SteelRain]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

It is quite possible. And I hope Germans unscrew it all somehow. Clearly Scholz decisions aren't the most popular even back home.

 

1 hour ago, kraze said:

That gas will keep coming regardless. It's the only lifeline for russians. No gas sales = no money. That's why most EU countries don't care and give guns. It's either he is directly involved in gas money and cashes out - or he is too deep into Stasi->FSB connections just like Merkel is.

 

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

lol

Yeah, good luck with that.

(finding one, I mean)

I would like to know how many of our politicans are heavily invested into this nord stream ****, or eye for a nice retirement job in one of the involved companys. Maybe Scholz had a clandestine meeting with Schröder, who should be tarred and feathered for his failings and him calling putin a flawless democrat years ago...

Most of the politicians in Germany are rotten to the core, ambitious underachiever and see our democracy as a lousy self-service outlet.

Edited April 20, 2022 by SteelRain

[dan/california]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/04/20/germany-stopping-all-russian-oil-imports-by-end-of-2022-foreign-minister-says/?utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter&sh=5aec91c332aa

 

HUGE if true!

[BeondTheGrave]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nah, that's just a nicely primped T-72.  Putting aside the turret isn't right, it has 6 road wheels while a T-14 has 7.

Steve

Damn RIP my dreams.

Unless it means the -14s are already en route........

[Battlefront.com]

I approve of this message:

 

[Combatintman]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This matches Oryx.  I count a grand total of 8 BRM-1Ks, 1 x BDRM-2.  They also have MRAPS and the Italian "Rys" which could qualify as light recon vehicles in a pinch.  So not a lot of recon spotted in the KO lists.  So yea, really good and not gotten hit (very doubtful because...recce), they did not push them and just let the Inf Coys try and do the gig because they clearly have too much infantry, or they have been using non-specialized vehicles and they are just buried in the heap of dead IFVs and APC. 

Could explain why the Russian tactical units deeply resemble a blind dog trying to hump a football to death.  Just another weird oddity of this whole thing.

Had a closer look at this now - going back to old money Soviet formations and converting that into the 2017 Russian Way of War pamphlet, what we're seeing in that BTG construct is effectively the regimental reconnaissance company of an old school regiment task-organized to a BTG.  It explains why the low ballpark for the number of BTGs that each regiment/brigade can field is one.  Theoretically divisional assets, in this case the divisional reconnaissance battalion can also be task-organised downwards as well.  If the divisional reconnaissance battalion is at full-strength with contract regulars then it would give each division enough company-sized reconnaissance elements to task-organise to another three BTGs across the division.  Within a division of three regiments; therefore, theoretically it can generate enough recce for 6 x BTGs.  Conversely, given that the separate brigades only have a single recce coy then they are constrained to generating recce for 1 x BTG.

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 We see Ukr forces with NLAWS and Panzerfaust/RPG type weapons all the time. You see a lot less video of them even carrying Javelins. Are the Ukrainians holding the Javelins back for reaction forces to contain Russian breakthroughs, or otherwise issuing them only to specific units with specific jobs where the range really matters? Don't tell me if that is sensitive info.

Most of the videos are uploaded by territorial defence and irregulars, hence the simple stuff is visible. Things that take more training and require more care are with the regular army and they stick to OPSEC. That's how I heard it explained at least, seems believable. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I approve of this message:

 

Absolutely terrifying.  I love it.  Give those Russian soldiers all the more impetus to flee.  And for the collaborators.....

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is 54th mech.brigade (black chevron) and volunteer UAV combat group K-2, fighting long time in composition of this brigade (round camo chevron).

Thank you for that!  I thought it was the 54th, but I think I consulted a bad source that showed a similar (maybe older?) unit symbol.  Anyway, I am all set now

7 hours ago, Haiduk said:

The footage is from village Stepne, 15 km south from Maryinka, wich on the moment of filmilng was in neutral zone.

Here is full version

 

It is odd how many men came out of that one house after it was getting hit.

Steve

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

Most of the videos are uploaded by territorial defence and irregulars, hence the simple stuff is visible. Things that take more training and require more care are with the regular army and they stick to OPSEC. That's how I heard it explained at least, seems believable. 

Yes. The only kind of guys who have time/capability for that are either TD or just purely brass balled terminators of Azov. And there are no TD units in the East.

Edited April 20, 2022 by kraze

[Der Zeitgeist]

Watch out, defenders of Azovstal: Kadyrov is coming. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Had a closer look at this now - going back to old money Soviet formations and converting that into the 2017 Russian Way of War pamphlet, what we're seeing in that BTG construct is effectively the regimental reconnaissance company of an old school regiment task-organized to a BTG.  It explains why the low ballpark for the number of BTGs that each regiment/brigade can field is one.  Theoretically divisional assets, in this case the divisional reconnaissance battalion can also be task-organised downwards as well.  If the divisional reconnaissance battalion is at full-strength with contract regulars then it would give each division enough company-sized reconnaissance elements to task-organise to another three BTGs across the division.  Within a division of three regiments; therefore, theoretically it can generate enough recce for 6 x BTGs.  Conversely, given that the separate brigades only have a single recce coy then they are constrained to generating recce for 1 x BTG.

This is all making sense.

OK, so that "typical" BTG chart we're all familiar with is likely not typical.  It is the augmented 1st BTG (primary) for each Regiment. 2nd and 3rd BTGs would not have the recon element.  What else might be limited to the 1st BTG?

Steve

 

[Haiduk]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is odd how many men came out of that one house after it was getting hit.

I think, this was 120 mm mortar shell. Looks like building is of concrete, probably some railway facility and mortar shell exploded after hit the roof, so shock wave and fragments could be bring by two floors over the soldiers. But if this was 122 mm and especially 152 mm artillery shell, it could penetrate to ground floor.  

Edited April 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Watch out, defenders of Azovstal: Kadyrov is coming. 

 

Every time I see this guy and his TikTockers I realize how absolutely pathetic the traditional machismo mindset is.  Russians look at this crap and see strength?  Well, I look at this and see a guy with a very small penis.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, this was 120 mm mortar shell. Looks like building is of concrete, probably some railway facility and mortar shell exploded after hit the roof, so shock wave and fragments could be bring by two floors over the soldiers. But if this was 122 mm and especially 152 mm artillery shell, it could penetrate to ground floor.  

Oh, I meant the other video with the houses.  The guys ran out of the first house, around the gate, into the second house, and then ran out a few at a time.  I'm surprised they didn't try going all at once and then split up once they got outside.

Then again, we're talking about DPR guys.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Related to the poster I noted above:

Details of who this guy was and what happened:

https://vimbuzz.com/valery-kuleshov-blogger-ukraine-cause-of-death/

Steve

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every time I see this guy and his TikTockers I realize how absolutely pathetic the traditional machismo mindset is.  Russians look at this crap and see strength?  Well, I look at this and see a guy with a very small penis.

Steve

Maybe you prefer Vladimir Solovyov. He's been perfecting his casual WW3 threatening, menacing arms-crossed-with-Apple-Watch-style recently.

 

[Holman]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every time I see this guy and his TikTockers I realize how absolutely pathetic the traditional machismo mindset is.  Russians look at this crap and see strength?  Well, I look at this and see a guy with a very small penis.

Steve

I see someone who should be hanging from a lamp post.

[womble]

Do these people have no conception of how stupid they look and sound? Apparently not. Drank their own Kool-Aid, the lot of 'em. Just a shame they have to take so many people along for the ride.