How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Note, they had to kill soldiers. Not arrest, browbeat or cajole. To end the mutiny they had to fight the soldiers. At some point the soldiers will fight back, properly, and the Chechens will cease to be useful battlefield enforcers.

[Huba]

Waiting for confirmation on HIMARS, altough it may not come, same as with Grads from PL and CZ. This is mostly for GMLRS I'd think, airlifting ammo should be easy. Now for some of those ATACMS.. 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Note, they had to kill soldiers. Not arrest, browbeat or cajole. To end the mutiny they had to fight the soldiers. At some point the soldiers will fight back, properly, and the Chechens will cease to be useful battlefield enforcers.

Some major wtf if Russian soldiers are getting no pay. Either the top or middle is skimming it or some messup, or the Russian state has gone truly mad but definitely if this can't get resolved it's gonna spread and cause just as much chaos as the supply shortages.

[Fenris]

Was a story a few days (weeks?) back - something to do with the sanctions coming in and they don't have enough to pay the troops.  It's mentioned and discussed in this thread somewhere.

[Huba]

I can't imagine they don't have roubles to physically pass to the soldiers, just print some FFS. This story sounds like UA PsyOps to me to be honest. 

[Kinophile]

The lack of pay, yes previously noted. And verified by ISW.

Actual mutiny and killing soldiers is new, I believe.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[chrisl]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

I can't imagine they don't have roubles to physically pass to the soldiers, just print some FFS. This story sounds like UA PsyOps to me to be honest. 

Maybe they can't get paper to print on, either...

[Combatintman]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

Another example of very well targeted artillery being not being instantly fatal, no clue how many didn't make it out. But a bunch of them had time to decide the building was a bad bet and make it to the trees. Although one guy got hit by something else, or busted his ankle crossing the railroad tracks. Video ends with him pretty clearly regretting his choices in life.

So running from buildings that are being shelled is actually a RL thing ... Lots of people and threads on this forum  appear to have disagreed with this notion in the past ... 

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I am seeing this information starting to spread somewhat without official confirmation. Wondering about it being true or not.

Very familiar with the system. Potential to be a pivotal capability for the Ukrainians. Also one reason why I am very skeptical this being send. Would west have the balls...

Dunno... it's on YouTube, it's got to be true!

Looks like mixed footage.  There are vehicles that are solid OG color and some with US Army camo.  The solid OG is how they were shipped to the Romanian Army last year.  I don't know if they kept the paint colors or not.

This is either footage of something recent, but pre-war, or it is what it seems to be.

We know there's a lot of stuff the US is sending to Ukraine we haven't heard about, so... possible?

I have no idea how quickly they will be able to operate these even with unofficial trainers.

Steve

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dunno... it's on YouTube, it's got to be true!

Looks like mixed footage.  There are vehicles that are solid OG color and some with US Army camo.  The solid OG is how they were shipped to the Romanian Army last year.  I don't know if they kept the paint colors or not.

This is either footage of something recent, but pre-war, or it is what it seems to be.

We know there's a lot of stuff the US is sending to Ukraine we haven't heard about, so... possible?

I have no idea how quickly they will be able to operate these even with unofficial trainers.

Steve

Probably stating the obvious here, but I was wondering how much time passes between actual decision and announcing of these weapons packages, I assume there's a considerable lead on those things. Incoming weapon shipments start to look more and more like a coordinated effort even based on open sources we have access to. Next stages that we discussed here yesterday must be already being prepared too. 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[Homo_Ferricus]

58 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Note, they had to kill soldiers. Not arrest, browbeat or cajole. To end the mutiny they had to fight the soldiers. At some point the soldiers will fight back, properly, and the Chechens will cease to be useful battlefield enforcers.

Source is as biased as they come, highly likely to be PsyOps. Though I very much believe that many Russian soldiers are  becoming more disgruntled as their special mission goes on. Would be interesting to see more evidence emerge.

[Battlefront.com]

55 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Simple answer is I don't know.  The consistent figure across the reporting is 22 x BTGs up there.  Both Jomini and UAWar appear consistent about the formations up there.  A lot I think depends on which 22 x BTGs are being counted - if you track from Verbivka to Sievierdonetsk you arrive at 22 x BTGs.  If you look at the formations and work on the widely held view that that a regiment/brigade is capable of generating 1-2 BTGs then the 8 x regts/bdes in the area Verbivka-Pidlyman translates into eight to 16 x BTGs maximum there.  Given the information that people are working from I would say that what we're seeing on the UAWar overlay is as accurate is its going to get accepting that the numbers are going to be out by one or two here or there.

Given that Russia seems to be trying to expand that bridgehead to the west and concurrently push south to Dibrovne and Slovyansk it is trying to do too much with too little and dissipating its combat power.  Whatever launches out of Izyum seems doomed to fail unless the Ukrainian Army up there decides to have a 'let's fight like Russia day.'

I'm more interested in what the strengths of these BTGs is.  They could have 1000 BTGs in the mix, but if they only have 3 guys each it's not that threatening

I have two theories about how they reorganized their forces to get 22 BTGs.  First is they have 10 Regiments each with 2x BTGs made up from a previous 3.  The other theory is that they have 7 Regiments and each have 3x that were reconstituted by tossing random warm bodies in to fill vacancies.

Looking at Jomini's map, it looks like they went with the second option.  Can I just say that doesn't inspire in me a lot of confidence in their abilities?  Well, too late, I said it.

These BTGs probably took, on average, about 20% personnel losses KIA/WIA/POW.  On average that means 20% of these BTGs are staffed by people that have never fought with the unit before, probably don't even had time to memorize each others' names.

And that is assuming they managed to get that many warm bodies into the mix.  Could be these units started down 20%, suffered 30% and only got 15% replacements for all we know.  It's almost as bad if they were down 20%, lost 30%, and gained 50% replacements.  More bodies, but holy crap that's a bad recipe for success.

I really hope the Ukrainians leave enough Russians alive to document this stuff so we can get a definitive answer after the war is over.  I am bursting with curiosity!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Possible update on Muskova losses:

There were reports of up to 200 wounded/burned that were not present at the parade ceremony.  I think that's rather too high to have rescued that many wounded.

https://www-currenttime-tv.translate.goog/a/nastoyaschee-vremya-pogovorilo-s-materyu-propavshego-moryaka/31811372.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

[Taranis]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Possible update on Muskova losses:

There were reports of up to 200 wounded/burned that were not present at the parade ceremony.  I think that's rather too high to have rescued that many wounded.

https://www-currenttime-tv.translate.goog/a/nastoyaschee-vremya-pogovorilo-s-materyu-propavshego-moryaka/31811372.html?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

Yes I think too that 200 wounded is too much. They can probably come from other navy units (naval infantry as well?)

[Taranis]

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm more interested in what the strengths of these BTGs is.  They could have 1000 BTGs in the mix, but if they only have 3 guys each it's not that threatening

I have two theories about how they reorganized their forces to get 22 BTGs.  First is they have 10 Regiments each with 2x BTGs made up from a previous 3.  The other theory is that they have 7 Regiments and each have 3x that were reconstituted by tossing random warm bodies in to fill vacancies.

Looking at Jomini's map, it looks like they went with the second option.  Can I just say that doesn't inspire in me a lot of confidence in their abilities?  Well, too late, I said it.

These BTGs probably took, on average, about 20% personnel losses KIA/WIA/POW.  On average that means 20% of these BTGs are staffed by people that have never fought with the unit before, probably don't even had time to memorize each others' names.

And that is assuming they managed to get that many warm bodies into the mix.  Could be these units started down 20%, suffered 30% and only got 15% replacements for all we know.  It's almost as bad if they were down 20%, lost 30%, and gained 50% replacements.  More bodies, but holy crap that's a bad recipe for success.

I really hope the Ukrainians leave enough Russians alive to document this stuff so we can get a definitive answer after the war is over.  I am bursting with curiosity!

Steve

Let's not forget the passion of the Soviet era where it was preferable to have many understrength units than to have only a few fully reconstituted units. What I mean by that is that I wouldn't be surprised that on the 22x BTGs, their real power is only 50-70%. We would then only have a real strength of about 11-15x BTG (max). 22, It always looks better for propaganda! It avoids that we announce the dissolution of units and Putler sees a map with lots of flags everywhere. As you stated before, their BTG only came from not having enough good gear to equip everything and being forced to group everything together but that fusion ability ends there I think. I don't think the BTGs merge with each other but only within the BTG itself (merging companies) giving BTGs with probably a single company. I don't have any proof of that but I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of a Russian commander who still thinks he's in the Soviet Union in his head, who is corrupt and afraid of getting his knuckles slapped... 2 cents opinion  

[Ts4EVER]

According to German media, defenders of Mariupol requested evacuation to a neutral nation, any more known here?

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

According to German media, defenders of Mariupol requested evacuation to a neutral nation, any more known here?

 

[DesertFox]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

UKR needs to get through this weekend and then they'll be far less hassled by missile (not just PGM, my bad) strikes.

I really hope this is true.

[Combatintman]

18 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Let's not forget the passion of the Soviet era where it was preferable to have many understrength units than to have only a few fully reconstituted units. What I mean by that is that I wouldn't be surprised that on the 22x BTGs, their real power is only 50-70%. We would then only have a real strength of about 11-15x BTG (max). 22, It always looks better for propaganda! It avoids that we announce the dissolution of units and Putler sees a map with lots of flags everywhere. As you stated before, their BTG only came from not having enough good gear to equip everything and being forced to group everything together but that fusion ability ends there I think. I don't think the BTGs merge with each other but only within the BTG itself (merging companies) giving BTGs with probably a single company. I don't have any proof of that but I'm just trying to put myself in the shoes of a Russian commander who still thinks he's in the Soviet Union in his head, who is corrupt and afraid of getting his knuckles slapped... 2 cents opinion  

Not disputing the general thrust of what you're saying but the 22 x BTG figure, according to Jomini, is sourced from Ukrainian and Western/NATO intelligence so this is not a case of Russians adding 'HQ flags' to Putin's Kremlin bunker map.  

[kraze]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Kremlin Dodges Questions on Missing Moskva Warship Crew (msn.com)

He said he’d been told directly by commanders that his son was listed as missing without a trace.

“A conscript who is not supposed to be taking part in the war is listed as missing without a trace. You guys, he disappeared without a trace in the open sea?”!!!

“Why are you, the officers, still alive, and my son, a conscript soldier, has died?” he wrote.

“I will devote the rest of my life to making sure the truth will prevail in this story,” he wrote in the since-deleted post.

His wife, Yegor Shkrebets’ mother, told The Insider that she and her husband had visited a military hospital in search of their son and seen about 200 wounded servicemen being treated there.

She said her husband had asked a military commander where their son was, to which he replied: “Well, in the sea somewhere.”

 

That Shkrebets dude wrote this just a few years back on his social media page: "Ukraine is a country that shouldn't exist".

There you go.

Edited April 20, 2022 by kraze

[Taranis]

25 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Not disputing the general thrust of what you're saying but the 22 x BTG figure, according to Jomini, is sourced from Ukrainian and Western/NATO intelligence so this is not a case of Russians adding 'HQ flags' to Putin's Kremlin bunker map.  

Yes, you are right, but I assume that NATO intelligence statements are based on radio taps or captured documents mentioning unit IDs/numbers. What unit commanders let their superiors see. You can thus have 3 BTG because 3 different identifiers but does not show their status in actual strength. It seems to me that you had been in the intelligence, you probably know better than me

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Kamil Galeev is very interesting, if probably getting a lot wrong, his insight into Russia from a perspective of a minority born and raised in Russia offers a lot vs a western visitor or scholar’s perspective.

On pure military matters, there's no better info than here, of course. Yay us.

Kamil grew up in Moscow's elite circles and is a history professor. Obviously, if there are other good Russian sources not spewing RT agitprop, please do suggest them. I try to read around.

Archvillain "Strelkov" (Igor Girkin*), in his depths of despair, seems to occasionally tell a home truth or two in his various commentaries, but noise to signal is too high to follow him regularly.

And Dmitry Orlov, who used to pull few punches on anyone, has sadly gone into the: "We Know The Imperial USA Is The Root Of All Evil So Therefore Its Enemies Must Be the Good Guys" fever swamp.

* There's a Russian language Twitter feed in this name, although there's no way it's him, which posts feeds from both sides (including retweets of the various soldier funeral shots with the same creepy stock photo of the Holy Tsar on the right. In case anybody forgot what this war was about.)

Edited April 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Combatintman]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

Yes, you are right, but I assume that NATO intelligence statements are based on radio taps or captured documents mentioning unit IDs/numbers. What unit commanders let their superiors see. You can thus have 3 BTG because 3 different identifiers but does not show their status in actual strength. It seems to me that you had been in the intelligence, you probably know better than me

I suspect it would be an IMINT/SIGINT/ELINT lashup.  SIGINT will tell you what callsigns are speaking to each other and which nets are active.  As a simple illustration, if you have three callsigns on a regimental net - one will be the RHQ and the other two will be subordinate battalions/BTGs.  Easier if you're getting the raw voice transcript.  ELINT will be able to geolocate the transmitters which then allows you to cue up your IMINT sensor to collect at the geolocated areas.  Your IMINT will tell you what is physically there.

[kraze]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

those grieving mothers

There is a phone call intercept where a son tries to explain to his mother that they are killing civilians and children and his mother says "no, stop it, you are killing nazis".

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

There is a phone call intercept where a son tries to explain to his mother that they are killing civilians and children and his mother says "no, stop it, you are killing nazis".

Yep, de-nazification of Russia is necessary. As was de-nazification of Germany after 1945.