How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

There are many cuts.  Just showing effective rounds.

Sure, or the jump cut to not have the 1 minute adjust and flight time boring the Hell out of us I'm sure there were plenty of ineffective impacts cut out, but that's not all that's going on.

Clearly these rounds are being fired selectively.  There's probably 100 shell impacts, so maybe those are from a rocket barrage at some earlier time.  What we're seeing is not directly connected.

Then there's the track marks.  Way more than just a few vehicles having pulled into their positions once or twice.  These guys have been in and out a lot.  The engineered positions, including a huge berm to their rear, shows these positions have been "well loved".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

Kremlin Dodges Questions on Missing Moskva Warship Crew (msn.com)

He said he’d been told directly by commanders that his son was listed as missing without a trace.

“A conscript who is not supposed to be taking part in the war is listed as missing without a trace. You guys, he disappeared without a trace in the open sea?”!!!

“Why are you, the officers, still alive, and my son, a conscript soldier, has died?” he wrote.

“I will devote the rest of my life to making sure the truth will prevail in this story,” he wrote in the since-deleted post.

His wife, Yegor Shkrebets’ mother, told The Insider that she and her husband had visited a military hospital in search of their son and seen about 200 wounded servicemen being treated there.

She said her husband had asked a military commander where their son was, to which he replied: “Well, in the sea somewhere.”

 

Interesting to think about the differences between the Army and Navy in terms of conscripts.  Not as easy to send a ship into a warzone without conscripts than a ground unit.

Steve

[sross112]

7 hours ago, db_zero said:

Lets look at what we do know:

Now we decide to give Ukraine more advanced tanks-M1's, Leopard 2. Even if its 6 months 12 months, what does that do? You've now transformed the Ukrainian armored formations into a significant over match compared to Russia, that is now capable of undertaking rapid and violent offensive actions into regions already occupied by Russia and if you take the worst case (something that planners for better or worse always do), Russia itself.

How do you react if your Russia? One possible reaction is to start basing nuclear weapons in the Crimea and Donbass. Your conventional forces that you know can't match Ukraine with its new found offensive weapons become just a trip wire. You justify basing nukes based on "NATO hostile offensive arming of a mortal threat"

A lot of smart people have been chiming in on the "what and how much do we give" discussion and why. The timing is pretty important I think. As above it would be 6 or more months before the training cycle was done to field the top tier equipment effectively and I would think that would be with lots of training at all levels and using your experienced regular brigades for the transition. Not something you can really do while fighting a war. I doubt there will be any huge overhaul of totally re-equipping entire formations during this conflict.

With that being said, hopefully within 6 months the RA is pushed out of Ukraine and a stagnant front develops along the border. I don't think the UA is going to take Moscow and I don't believe Putin is going to throw in the towel. Luckily the RA will be shot out and will take a very long time to become threatening again. That is the time to start a total re-equip of the UA. Yes with first line M1's, Bradley's, HIMARs, etc. Switch every weapon system they have over to a western one. Lots of lend lease and it could be accomplished well before the RA was built back to even it's pre-invasion levels.

That pretty much ends the conflict. With the UA armed up to that level the RA would have to build to at least parity and they couldn't do that before the invasion so there is no hope for it afterwards. The big goal is deterrence of further aggression and that is how you do it. If the west continues to only send the old stuff or soviet based stuff then the RA is able to reach parity again at some point. 

Give them what they need for real security. In the end the security of Ukraine equals the security of Europe as a whole.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

@The_Capt

you need to factor this into the information war.  

Tracking The Enemy: How Ukrainians Are Using Russian Troops’ Greed Against Them (msn.com)

That is just too funny!  The number of ways for Russian to screw up OPSEC continues to grow.

Steve

[Vic4]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Important reporting on the Russian crimes in and around Bogdanivka:

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/04/18/i-can-do-whatever-i-want-to-you

Reposting this article. There are no words in the English language to adequately describe how horrific and despicable the contents are, but imho it should be read by everyone following this thread. Compounded by the fact that this is being perpetrated exponentially en masse as we speak is sickening. It will eradicate any remaining vestige of compassion you might have for the RA. At least it did for me.. Russia can go to h*ll.

Glory to Ukraine

[kohlenklau]

Ukraine Vodka. From the Foster Brooks School of International Diplomacy...every drop of support helps. And the new grain crop must be planted soon!

I also remembered that my old Grandpa Alex was from Eastern Hungary "Szurte in Ung County" but after 1945 Stalin said that is now Western Ukraine town of Syurte so maybe I have some relatives over there?

Slava Ukraini

 

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a quick flowchart of what I suggest Ukrainian logic should be regarding offers of military support:

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like this area has seen a lot of repeated action (reportedly Kharkiv area).  Look at all the huge quantity of tracks in the fields.  Also looks like they had a different fighting position behind the one that got attacked.  Much of this front has been static for the last 6 months, so that explains it.

The artillery directed right on the fortified woods seems to be pretty accurate.  Single shells being fired, landing right near or on the positions.

Steve

Was the same battery firing ground and air burst? Or maybe mortars and 152mm at the same time? It really looked like there were two different kinds of shells going off.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

“I will devote the rest of my life to making sure the truth will prevail in this story,” he wrote in the since-deleted post.... She said her husband had asked a military commander where their son was, to which he replied: “Well, in the sea somewhere.”

"If only Stalin knew!"

Alas, though, those grieving mothers will continue to give Good Tsar Vlad a pass, while blaming the 'corrupt boyars' (including military commanders) for any and all misfortunes. There's only so much Truth they can handle, it seems.

It's those very same boyars, though, who will need to end this.

Taking it back down from the political realm to 'war aims': 

1.  for even that kind of reckoning to occur, I think the military defeat is going to need to be total. That includes more or less full destruction of the Russian ground armies in South Ukraine and Donbass -- their vehicles, artillery and officer cadre. It remains to be seen how the Ukrainian forces can accomplish that in their current mode.

2. As well as a substantial winnowing of their air forces, on top of the attrition that is already occurring from shortages.  Which likely requires some fairly advanced though thinly deniable kit from the West. Yes, I'm talking about Patriots -- or at least their tracking systems -- but maybe also bigger drones that can hit their bases in Russia and destroy aircraft in numbers on the ground. Or at least force them to fly more, until they drop.

3. Conclusion: I just don't think rolling the invaders back to the Feb 2022 frontiers will cut it tbh. Because given a respite and the usual pattern of Western ADD, I fear the next move by the wounded bear could take us a lot closer to Armageddon than we are today.

4.  Specifically, an uprising in Belarus. If that happens now, it will be very helpful. If it happens later -- with Russia in a position to respond -- it lights the fuse to Doomsday.

Edited April 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

55 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

Reposting this article. There are no words in the English language to adequately describe how horrific and despicable the contents are, but imho it should be read by everyone following this thread. Compounded by the fact that this is being perpetrated exponentially en masse as we speak is sickening. It will eradicate any remaining vestige of compassion you might have for the RA. At least it did for me.. Russia can go to h*ll.

Glory to Ukraine

The Telegram does a good podcast about Ukraine every weekday. They had one that was entirely about the horror stories. I couldn't listen to all of it, just.... no words , as you said. I did come to the firm conclusion that every Russian soldier in Ukraine needed to die or start running home, preferably they should be on fire either way.

 

I posted it however many pages back, honestly I WOULDN"T recommend listening to it, unless your unsure about which side is in the right. In which case it will clear you right up.

Edited April 20, 2022 by dan/california
added detail

[Battlefront.com]

Has this been posted yet?  I've seen a meme going around, but found out more:

There's a video interview with him in the Washington Examiner article.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More aid from Finland announced today, though not specified what it will be.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3461985-finland-to-provide-another-batch-of-military-aid-to-ukraine.html

Not surprisingly, the images of Russians dragging away large agricultural equipment from the south of Ukraine have been spotted in Chechnya for sale by a company with ties to Kadyrov:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/19/7340733/

Steve

[dan/california]

Somewhat more usefully, i also think the awful atrocities are are part of the reason Ukraine shouldn't try to get Crimea, and the DLPR back. The Ukrainians are going to have an unimaginable amount of grief and anger to deal with. I am more than a little concerned some things might happen that would be .......unfortunate. 

[Battlefront.com]

The folks over at ISW are pros through and through, but you can't help but wonder sometimes how hard they have to try to not just come right out and say "Russia sucks at war".  I bolded and underlined the passage I'm talking about:

Quote

Russian forces appear to be attempting to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along axes from Izyum to the southeast and from Donetsk City to the north even as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Russian ground offensives in the last 24 hours occurred around Izyum, Kreminna (north of Severodonetsk), and from Donetsk City toward Avdiivka. Only the advance to and possibly through Kreminna made significant progress. An encirclement on this scale would likely take considerable time to complete against Ukrainian resistance. Even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.
The Russians may alternatively try to complete several smaller encirclements simultaneously, each trapping fewer Ukrainian forces and therefore taking less time to complete and then reduce. Coordinating such operations is complicated and beyond the planning and execution capacities the Russian army has demonstrated in the conflict thus far.

 

[Kinophile]

LOL, oh man I was just thinking the same thing. How hard must it be for them to keep their descriptions so clean and dry. They seem so frustrated to be repeatedly describing repeated stupidity in detail, even though its a good thing for Ukraine.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-win-battle-eastern-ukraine

Just a short take, but it seems to anticipate current realities. 

- Early UKR spoiling attacks on the flanks of Izyum, drawing away (some) combat power and beginning the eating-through of the offensive's LOCs.

- Constant UKR localized attacks on the flanks of the offensive itself.

These tactics are, I believe(?), similar to German responses to Soviet offensives in 42/43. Same problem, same solution.

[FancyCat]

If they are still doing the grand encirclements, then Putin and co. are still not acknowledging the reality of the Russian position in Ukraine. Perhaps some of it is the military lying to Putin, lying to themselves, I would bet they still cling to the idea that caused them to underestimate Ukraine in the first place. What is certain, if their expectations are unrealistic, so will be their goals, Putin still desires to take the majority of Ukraine soon. A grinding attrition in eastern Ukraine while the Russian army reorganizes and regroups for the rest of the year does not fulfill the goal of taking Ukraine. Tho I wonder if this is even possible anymore, with sanctions sapping their ability to replace losses, could it be that their ability to undertake offensive action will simply decline as time passes vs Ukraine’s increasing ability to mobilize, train and equip their forces (with Western aid)?

or maybe they are just stupid and refusing to accept temporary defeat.

[Kinophile]

On 4/14/2022 at 2:55 PM, Kinophile said:

Just look at this!

160 strikes on Feb 24.

40 on April 12

[...]

They could easily be stockpiling for the supposedly coming Donbass campaign, which is not great - UKR would get hit by a serious surge, possibly double the Wk 1 numbers, which is bad. But after that, if UKR can weather than initial storm, then RUS PGMs will be virtually non-existent.

TL/DR: Rus PGM pipeline is garbage, cannot keep up with demand with existing lines and is unable to expand production. They're stockpiling now for an offensive but will burn through that in the first week. After that, they're empty.

and today:

Look how long they had to stockpile to get to 130 for the opening day of this campaign. 

It'll be interesting to see how many they fire over the next 3-5 days. I By D3/D4 I'm expecting a heavy drop, followed by  a surge on Monday April 25th, then another steady decline.

UKR needs to get through this weekend and then they'll be far less hassled by missile (not just PGM, my bad) strikes.

This a canary-in-the-coalmine indicator of the zombification of the Russian weapons manufacturing base.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

Kamil Galeev is very interesting, if probably getting a lot wrong, his insight into Russia from a perspective of a minority born and raised in Russia offers a lot vs a western visitor or scholar’s perspective.

[The_MonkeyKing]

What is this?

[Kinophile]

What is himars, you mean?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS

Last version of the missile had a range of 300km.

Put these babies south of Mykolaiv and you can hit Sebastapol.

Or keep them East of Dnipro and you can cover the entire Dnipro-Kharkiv-Donetsk AO.

 

[Fenris]

Interview with the UKR SPA gunner from that tik-Tok clip a few days back

 

[Combatintman]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Are the BTGs strengths accurate on that second one?  I see 10 BTGs in that bulge west of Izyum, is that right?

Simple answer is I don't know.  The consistent figure across the reporting is 22 x BTGs up there.  Both Jomini and UAWar appear consistent about the formations up there.  A lot I think depends on which 22 x BTGs are being counted - if you track from Verbivka to Sievierdonetsk you arrive at 22 x BTGs.  If you look at the formations and work on the widely held view that that a regiment/brigade is capable of generating 1-2 BTGs then the 8 x regts/bdes in the area Verbivka-Pidlyman translates into eight to 16 x BTGs maximum there.  Given the information that people are working from I would say that what we're seeing on the UAWar overlay is as accurate is its going to get accepting that the numbers are going to be out by one or two here or there.

Given that Russia seems to be trying to expand that bridgehead to the west and concurrently push south to Dibrovne and Slovyansk it is trying to do too much with too little and dissipating its combat power.  Whatever launches out of Izyum seems doomed to fail unless the Ukrainian Army up there decides to have a 'let's fight like Russia day.'

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, Kinophile said:

What is himars, you mean?

I am seeing this information starting to spread somewhat without official confirmation. Wondering about it being true or not.

Very familiar with the system. Potential to be a pivotal capability for the Ukrainians. Also one reason why I am very skeptical this being send. Would west have the balls...

[sross112]

It is good. Gives the UA the long range PGM capability they need. I was hoping for these after a reference to rocket arty from the US 2 or 3 weeks ago and then hadn't heard anything else. Counter battery game changer.

Maybe one of those systems that is viewed as being a possible escalation so it hasn't been publicly acknowledged. Then again it could be old footage from somewhere else. Those are definitely European trucks. If someone could identify a license plate from Ukraine that would be confirmation, any other NATO country probably not.

Edited April 20, 2022 by sross112