Vacillator Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Huba said: What I was wondering is if it is possible to achieve some surprise on this level. Let's say that the Russian northern group of forces around Izyum doesn't push south at all, instead going west trying to encircle Kharkiv (not saying that this particular scenario is realistic, just an example, probably on a lesser scale too). Does this kind of thinking make sense at all ? You're not asking on behalf of Vladimir are you? Just joking... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Huba said: In light of the discussion above it looks like it's hardly possible to hide your forces, but I'd think that until those start moving, you can't fully predict how are they going to be used and plan accordingly, you have to make some assumptions. What I was wondering is if it is possible to achieve some surprise on this level. Let's say that the Russian northern group of forces around Izyum doesn't push south at all, instead going west trying to encircle Kharkiv (not saying that this particular scenario is realistic, just an example, probably on a lesser scale too). Does this kind of thinking make sense at all ? Some, But especially this time of year any meaningful Russian force is completely road bound due weather/ground conditions. So it just isn't that hard to put blocking forces at all the significant road junctions in case they tried something like that. And the The Ukrainians essentially have interior lines all the way across the current front. So they don't have to move as far to block as the Russians do to attack. Again if the Russians actually thought about that they would just quit and go home. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Another drone dropped munition 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Take up the challenge of showing why Russia can survive this long term. Since you're so convinced of it, that really isn't too much to ask... is it? Steve Handbags. Dawn. First to make contact and not break a nail, Wins! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Vacillator said: You're not asking on behalf of Vladimir are you? Just joking... Busted! Seriously though: I have no military background, but I was always interested in history, especially of the military kind, even studied it at the Uni. After two decades of reading one can be tempted to think that he understands some basic principles. This kind of mental exercise is a way to put it to the test. I of course say this with all the humility of a layman. Edited April 12, 2022 by Huba 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/12/pentagon-ukraine-weapons/?utm_source=reddit.com I think whatever was left of the don't be too mean to the Russians faction in the Biden Administration has been conclusively routed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Cześć, Huba! Welcome to the PutinIsSoScrewedGodWeHopeSo thread! Edited April 12, 2022 by Kinophile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Just now, Kinophile said: Cesc, Huba! Welcome to the PutinIsSoScrewedGodWeHopeSo thread! Cześć! It is refreshing after spending time in the "Russia is restraining itself that's whay they didn't win already" bubble. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Pace the UKR's cyber infrastructure discussion: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/us/politics/ukraine-russian-cyberattack.html Edited April 12, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Huba said: Cześć! It is refreshing after spending time in the "Russia is restraining itself that's whay they didn't win already" bubble. Jeepers, where were you on, the CoD forums? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vacillator Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Huba said: Busted! No worries, you're not alone except some can add more decades ... anyway welcome. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, DesertFox said: They had time time to be afraid, which I would feel bad about if the Russians weren't in an atrocity contest with the SS. So I will just point out they can go home anytime. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Saberwander said: They are just not fighting this in a way that can achieve victory. Or they just destroy everything and ruin the economy. Cutting the Ukraine off from the Black Sea will complete the task. Ukraine will end up like Finland in the 60's of the last century. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acrashb Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) 58 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Pace the UKR's cyber infrastructure discussion: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/us/politics/ukraine-russian-cyberattack.html Thanks - luckily I know how to get through paywalls "It used a complex chain of malware, including some custom-built to control utility systems" - that's the OT I mentioned. "In recent weeks, American officials have warned that Russia could try to expand its cyberwarfare" - this is a correct statement, and is one of the reasons private companies have been hardening up. "The attackers may have broken into the electrical company’s systems as early as February" - so it could have been an APT, an "Advanced Persistent Threat", something that hangs around waiting to be activated. Nonetheless failed, maybe that's why (the article is not specific). Sometimes an APT is discovered because it disrupts normal activity patterns over time and the SIEM and/or human threat hunters notice. "since Russia’s invasion began,[...] three times as many attacks as it had tracked in the previous year" - this is consistent with my data feeds, but globally, not just in Ukraine. "Some analysts believed that Russia would back up its ground invasion with crippling cyberattacks and were puzzled when widespread hacking campaigns did not materialize during the early days of the war." - more like _every_ analyst. Further to my previous lengthy post, in addition to other speculations I'm wondering if the Russian cyber warfare groups are as borked as the kinetic warfare people. Someone pointed out earlier that NATO had threatened Article 5, but cyber warfare difficult to clearly attribute to a specific threat actor, and in any event the language used was “massive cyber attack”; we haven't even see significant pinpricks. You'd think that messing up air traffic control at one of the Polish airports taking in Western aid would be a priority, but nothing, at least not in the public domain. For those keeping track: 2022 Ukraine cyberattacks - Wikipedia Edited April 12, 2022 by acrashb 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Fenris said: Another drone dropped munition That one almost got away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, akd said: N/t I assumed this was trying to point out that the cages don't stop top attack missiles but looking at the picture I wasn't convinced it wasn't just a rock on top of the cage. I can't check the Twitter thread now so was this the conclusion? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Offshoot said: I assumed this was trying to point out that the cages don't stop top attack missiles but looking at the picture I wasn't convinced it wasn't just a rock on top of the cage. I can't check the Twitter thread now so was this the conclusion? Yeah, I checked the shadows again and what looked at first like a penetration hole through the cage was actually a clod of dirt sitting on top. Edited April 12, 2022 by akd 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 Quote Those who talk of a stalemate on the battlefield, perhaps lasting years, are likely making as big of an error as when they dismissed the possibility of effective Ukrainian resistance two months ago. Decisive action is urgently required to tip the balance between a costly success and a calamity. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/04/ukraine-russia-war-consequences/629541/ 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) Edited April 13, 2022 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Steppenwulf Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kinophile said: Handbags. Dawn. First to make contact and not break a nail, Wins! "Welcome to Thunderdome! Two men enter, one man leaves..." Edited April 13, 2022 by The Steppenwulf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 41 minutes ago, acrashb said: Thanks - luckily I know how to get through paywalls The NYT PW is a cookie-based joke. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 @acrashb I've a friend of a friend in cyber threat analysis. She's noted re the attack: Quote Sandworm team, revised Industroyer. Eset and Slovak CSIRT do a lot of work on them, released to CSIRT-network earlier. In broad terms, means RU have given up trying to preserve civilian infrastructure- their forces in north were dependant on the civvie grid for their comms and energy. New theatre commander has no illusions, and forces are better supplied. Kill the grid. Further: Quote [The] supply chain risk is one of the major worries on a wider scale. December 20 Solarwinds- RU (SVR) had unlimited access to 50k firms- they accessed about 28, and left the rest alone. Then they burned that access trying to see what Fireeye Mandiant had. So they were happy enough to burn access to 50k firms, on a thunderun. What other access did they have that they felt they could lose that access? And what they’ve used so far is old exploits and wipers - nothing major. So.... Either they're holding back the One Ring or...there is no One Ring, just a gilded hula-hoop. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted April 13, 2022 Share Posted April 13, 2022 "We must understand that not all Russian tanks are stuck in fields, not all enemy soldiers simply flee the battlefield and not all of them are conscripts who do not know how to hold weapons properly," he said. (Zelenskiy) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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