How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Man könnte kotzen...

 

 

Scholz doesn't strike me as someone who takes such decisions without a good reason. What could that be?

[Battlefront.com]

The same lack of BMP-3s on the list pairs with the lack of T-90s.  It could be that these units are ones deployed along the Baltic border or they are being held back "in case of emergency" around Moscow.  There is also the possibility that the units with this equipment performed better in Ukraine than others and therefore retained more.  Personally, I don't buy that.  Performance across the board has not shown any unit capable of limiting its losses.

Steve

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Scholz doesn't strike me as someone who takes such decisions without a good reason. What could that be?

Fear of Putin shutting down gas and oil. German economy would go tits up in a heartbeat.

[womble]

Re: the journos and the cat.

1. The cat was probably there for 10 minutes, certainly the correspondents couldn't expect it to hang around. So as an interlude from the horror, it was probably welcome. The horror was going to still be there once the cat left.
2. Many people like cats. Some people like cats a lot. Cats make stories people read. Good stories keep people engaged with the affairs that are being reported as "cat-related". Is this a bad thing? I don't think it is.
3. All hail our feline overlords.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Fear of Putin shutting down gas and oil. German economy would go tits up in a heartbeat.

Yes, well, that is something to consider of course. 

[womble]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Fear of Putin shutting down gas and oil. German economy would go tits up in a heartbeat.

How did the "you gotta pay in rubles" shenanigans pan out in the end? Last I saw, there was some timing delay that let the RF row back on the demand.

[G.I. Joe]

4 minutes ago, Pelican Pal said:

Troop comfort seems tied pretty tightly to economic power so I'm not entirely sure how important it is on its own. During WW2 the USN had entire ships dedicated to ice cream production. Did the U.S. win the war in the Pacific because it cared more about its troops or because it had so much excess economic power that it could just dedicated an entire ship/crew to ice cream production?

 

Fair point, and I would agree that it doesn't win wars on its own and ties in strongly with economics. But, I think it is probably fair to say there was a tangible difference between the Wehrmacht and Commonwealth forces, and in that instance ideology probably is the more salient factor. And in today's world there are plenty of small militaries with tight budgets that still take a "western" attitude to troop comfort (of course many of them are in relatively prosperous countries that just don't spend a lot on defence).

The economic dimension is the main reason I did not make the argument that that you could apply such a distinction on a much smaller scale between U.S. and Commonwealth forces. Although, a more top-down cultural attitude probably was at least sometimes as much a factor as the Commonwealth countries having more limited resources... Case in point - the Royal Canadian Navy had a definite culture shift postwar after a string of lower deck "mutinies" (protests might be a better word) in the late 40s, and the RCN admiralty in the 50s showed a definite split between pro-Royal Navy traditionalists and reformers turning to the USN as a model.

That also raises the related point that troop comfort is often as much or more a matter of how people are treated as how they are provisioned...

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Very interesting article here, explaining the development of military culture in Russia and Ukraine, and how it influenced their battlefield performance in this war.

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

This article makes me wonder whether Putin wasn't realizing that in a couple of years the Ukrainian army would be completely unbeatable. Combined with a NATO that started to re-arm again in the past years may explain him taking such a gamble. Bit like Hitler before Barbarossa. 

[TheVulture]

Russia talking up the "terrorist threat level" in Voronezh oblast (neighbouring Luhansk), Krasnodar Krai (on the Black Sea coast) and Crimea. Could be either scaremongering or worrying about Ukraine special forces ops.

[womble]

31 minutes ago, Pelican Pal said:

Troop comfort seems tied pretty tightly to economic power so I'm not entirely sure how important it is on its own.

A potential example of a combat advantage... I can't say how accurate the article is, but it rings at least somewhat true. Wikipedia's article on the boiling vessel is a little more sober.

[womble]

Just now, TheVulture said:

Russia talking up the "terrorist threat level" in Voronezh oblast (neighbouring Luhansk), Krasnodar Krai (on the Black Sea coast) and Crimea. Could be either scaremongering or worrying about Ukraine special forces ops.

Or "laying the groundwork" for a false flag op.

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, womble said:

How did the "you gotta pay in rubles" shenanigans pan out in the end? Last I saw, there was some timing delay that let the RF row back on the demand.

I expect this to be sheer bluff. The Russians practically live from this money now and one billion per day for as long as it lasts is a lot of money for them.

[acrashb]

26 minutes ago, womble said:

And there's a strong suspicion that the defenses of Kherson were compromised by treachery, so even that example of apparent competence may flatter.

I understand, from posts here, that the regional commander, Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych is suspected of handing over regional defence plans to the Russians.  He was dismissed March 31.

If accurate, no doubt Oleksandrovych expected a comfy Russian-backed position in Ukraine after a short war.  Poor choice at all levels.

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, womble said:

How did the "you gotta pay in rubles" shenanigans pan out in the end? Last I saw, there was some timing delay that let the RF row back on the demand.

The germans are paying them in EUR to a russian bank which hasn´t been excluded from SWIFT. Don´t know exactly how the other 26 countries handle it.

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

He chucked some dykes.

No, Kinophile is on to something. There were sheeps involved, but I promised Chuckdyke not to talk about that.  plenty of sheeps in Australia too.

P.s. Just kidding of course, Chuckdyke, hope you can laugh about it too.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[G.I. Joe]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

A potential example of a combat advantage... I can't say how accurate the article is, but it rings at least somewhat true. Wikipedia's article on the boiling vessel is a little more sober.

Excellent example... I would have to check, but I doubt if the Tiger II had a boiling vessel.

Edited April 11, 2022 by G.I. Joe
Late war innovation, so changed Tiger to Tiger II.

[Haiduk]

58 minutes ago, slysniper said:

OK, looking at Russian losses, I see large amounts of T72's of all versions that have been lost so far within the war. a decent amount of T80's

But so far, only 17 T90A's

what is the possible reasons for this.

What units have these tanks and where are they presently located?

 

Is there still well equipped units that have not been committed to the fighting?

 

 

I can recall two units of 58th CAA - 136th separate motor-rifle brigade (tank battalion with T-90A, participated in invasion on Donbas in 2014). 

19th motor-rifle division. It had T-90A, when it was a brigade in tank battalion, but I havn't info about current T-90A number and sharing among MR regiments - this division hasn't tank regiment.  

All BTGs of 58th CAA are Zaporizhzhia and east axis

1st tank regiment of 2nd Guard MRD has at least one battalion on T-90A and even first party of T-90M, but I don't know either this battalion participated in invasion or not.

Also T-90A were in 20th Guard MRD. Division has separate tank battalion instead tank regiment, but again there is no information about their T-90A in Ukraine. 

[danfrodo]

47 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Scholz doesn't strike me as someone who takes such decisions without a good reason. What could that be?

At first I was upset at this.  Then I took a step back and pictured German gov't officials going to Ukraine to decry war crimes -- that is a really really bad idea given the history of german war crimes in Ukraine back in WW2.  It is ripe for outrage and is excellent propaganda for Russia: "Nazis come to UKR to bolster Nazi cause!"

There's plenty of history-neutral folks who can go there and bear witness.

[Der Zeitgeist]

51 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Scholz doesn't strike me as someone who takes such decisions without a good reason. What could that be?

It's the illusion in his party (SPD) that there still has to be some dialogue with Putin and that hardening the German position, especially in relation to shipments of heavy weapons, would cut off that relationship with Putin.

I think Scholz is still counting on the status quo in relations with Russia to eventually prevail, and he hasn't yet fully embraced the "Zeitenwende" he himself announced in his Bundestag speech right after the war started. There are also some rumours that his foreign-policy advisor in the chancellery, Jens Plötner, is driving this position. Plötner was also an architect on the German Russia-policy in the past, when he held high positions in the German Foreign Office.

Still, I expect the position of Scholz will soon change, because both the Green and FDP parties in the coalition have now firmly come out in favor of heavy weapons shipments.

[DesertFox]

Wonderful. Every russian ammo depot should look like this...

 

 

[acrashb]

39 minutes ago, womble said:

A potential example of a combat advantage... I can't say how accurate the article is, but it rings at least somewhat true. Wikipedia's article on the boiling vessel is a little more sober.

"A study done after the war found that 37 percent of all armor unit casualties occurred when the crew member was outside of the vehicle."

Which is a good reason to keep the crew inside - either with the British tea, or the Russian toilet (T-14).

Overall creature comforts provide some temporary relief from boredom and hardship, raising morale, which is "three times more important than the type of ATGM used" - according to Napolean (not his exact words  )

[Pelican Pal]

RE: Troop Comfort

I don't disagree that troop comfort can be beneficial to combat.  But my point is more that if you find yourself in a military where comfort is considered you are likely in one that is relatively well funded and relatively professional.  So the troop comfort is a low level representation of the quality of the force. If you have a water heater in your tank your officers are probably competent and you probably have other good equipment.

If you gave the Russians troops outside Kyiv heaters in their tanks they wouldn't have done any better because the Russian army is not professional and not well supplied.

----

Troop comfort is a symptom of professionalism and economic input and both of those are beneficial to military success.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Pelican Pal

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It's the illusion in his party (SPD) that there still has to be some dialogue with Putin and that hardening the German position, especially in relation to shipments of heavy weapons, would cut off that relationship with Putin.

I think Scholz is still counting on the status quo in relations with Russia to eventually prevail, and he hasn't yet fully embraced the "Zeitenwende" he himself announced in his Bundestag speech right after the war started. There are also some rumours that his foreign-policy advisor in the chancellery, Jens Plötner, is driving this position. Plötner was also an architect on the German Russia-policy in the past, when he held high positions in the German Foreign Office.

Still, I expect the position of Scholz will soon change, because both the Green and FDP parties in the coalition have now firmly come out in favor of heavy weapons shipments.

Scholz is a friend of Steinmeier, I've read, so yes, he may be behind this.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

It's the illusion in his party (SPD) that there still has to be some dialogue with Putin and that hardening the German position, especially in relation to shipments of heavy weapons, would cut off that relationship with Putin.

I think Scholz is still counting on the status quo in relations with Russia to eventually prevail, and he hasn't yet fully embraced the "Zeitenwende" he himself announced in his Bundestag speech right after the war started. There are also some rumours that his foreign-policy advisor in the chancellery, Jens Plötner, is driving this position. Plötner was also an architect on the German Russia-policy in the past, when he held high positions in the German Foreign Office.

Still, I expect the position of Scholz will soon change, because both the Green and FDP parties in the coalition have now firmly come out in favor of heavy weapons shipments.

Scholz is a risk averse nonentity that would have made perfectly adequate if invisible Chancellor if Putin hadn't lost his mind. Putin did lose his mind and Scholz is failing the test. So SEVERAL German politicians are trying to plan out their trips to Kyiv, and their attempts to make themselves Chancellor. It is always a messy process. Churchill's assumption of the PMs office wasn't exactly neat and tidy. It is the saving grace of parliamentary systems that they can change horses when they really need to.

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

At first I was upset at this.  Then I took a step back and pictured German gov't officials going to Ukraine to decry war crimes -- that is a really really bad idea given the history of german war crimes in Ukraine back in WW2.  It is ripe for outrage and is excellent propaganda for Russia: "Nazis come to UKR to bolster Nazi cause!"

There's plenty of history-neutral folks who can go there and bear witness.

Good point, Dan. Wouldn't be surprised if Scholz is thinking along these lines too.