How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

15 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

As Steve said early on UKR only needs to "keep kill Russians".   And Putin looks like he's gonna keep sending worse and worse troops in.

Funny all this LOTR stuff.  I am on my 3rd re-read right now this time via audiobook, I do it every 10 years.  Currently in 3rd book w attack on Minas Tirith coming up.  I think the orcs et al have a better army than RU.  RU can't even seem to get Osgiliath (Mariupol).  They both lost badly at Helm's Deep (Kyiv).

Third reread? Amateur!I’ve reread LOTR every two or three years since 1966! It is probably my favorite novel ever. I apologize for straying from the thread, but with all the LOTR references, I couldn’t help myself!

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

As Steve said early on UKR only needs to "keep kill Russians".   And Putin looks like he's gonna keep sending worse and worse troops in.

Funny all this LOTR stuff.  I am on my 3rd re-read right now this time via audiobook, I do it every 10 years.  Currently in 3rd book w attack on Minas Tirith coming up.  I think the orcs et al have a better army than RU.  RU can't even seem to get Osgiliath (Mariupol).  They both lost badly at Helm's Deep (Kyiv).

Many in Ukraine call Russia as Mordor, but.. no. What a f....g Mordor? Putin too ugly and paltry to be compared with evil lord %) Putin's Russia is Numenor of Ar-Pharason times ) Cult of Melkor (like a temple of War in Russia), cultivating of hate to West and it Lords, opression of Faithfuls and offering them as sacrifice to Melkor, Great Armament, Great Invasion to Valinor and... if you read Silmarillion, you should know  If not, you should read it after LoTR 

PS. Before 7 years in medieval re-enactment I about 6 years was a Tolkien-fan, participated in LARPs etc, was an archer  

[sburke]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Many in Ukraine call Russia as Mordor, but.. no. What a f....g Mordor? Putin too ugly and paltry to be compared with evil lord %) Putin's Russia is Numenor of Ar-Pharason times ) Cult of Melkor (like a temple of War in Russia), cultivating of hate to West and it Lords, opression of Faithfuls and offering them as sacrifice to Melkor, Great Armament, Great Invasion to Valinor and... if you read Silmarillion, you should know  If not, you should read it after LoTR 

PS. Before 7 years in medieval re-enactment I about 6 years was a Tolkien-fan, participated in LARPs etc, was an archer  

LOL finally someone who's read the real book.  LOTR is just a small aside barely 6 pages or so.  Morgoth is the real deal.

[Kinophile]

Is he ever. The Fall of Gondolin is one of my favorite stories of all time. What a bastard.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

The guys in the third tank called it wrong. that was the time to abandon ship, not back up slowly in what clearly a kill zone. 

Also, i don't know if tanks are over, but tanks without GOOD APS are definitely over.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Putin had done 1/1000th as much honest and insightful discussion pre-war as we have done post-war he probably would not have invaded in the first place.  

He should just have played the bloody game.

Insta-NOPE.

[Battlefront.com]

A look at a volunteer unit on the march (2nd video).  Usual motley look, but overall they seem pretty well equipped.  I see a mix of small arms (at least a few LMG/SAW), various AT weapons (at least one NLAW), some body armor, and radios.  Not a lot of helmets, though.  They are reasonably spaced (could be better) and keeping up a good pace.  Obviously fighting spirit is high.

 

[Haiduk]

One more confirmation of ridiculos level of Russian intelligence. They really launch missiles at the targets, according to the Soviet time maps.

 

Translation - in Lozova (Kharkiv oblast), Russian fascists destroyed with a missile about of 100 000 $ the empty semi-ruined facility, where in USSR time ammunitions was stored. I will mot forget this. Like LOL of 100th level

[Haiduk]

Rubizhne, Luhansk oblast. Russians of LPR again hit a tank with nitric acid on territory of one of local factories. But the wind today was in their side

 

[DesertFox]

The intricacies of the russian Orlan-10 drone...

 

 

[akd]

Ouch:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Just stumbled upon this video uploaded about 3 weeks ago.  I haven't watched the whole thing yet, but I already found what I saw interesting.  It's a look from a Russian social media personality that shows a bit about the impacts of sanctions at the consumer level.  First on the ground footage I've seen so far.  Yes, it is from an educated Muscovite looking at the higher end of Russian consumer society, but that's OK.  We can assume that if things are tough for the well-to-do, then it's worse for everybody else.

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

One more confirmation of ridiculos level of Russian intelligence. They really launch missiles at the targets, according to the Soviet time maps.

 

Translation - in Lozova (Kharkiv oblast), Russian fascists destroyed with a missile about of 100 000 $ the empty semi-ruined facility, where in USSR time ammunitions was stored. I will mot forget this. Like LOL of 100th level

At first I was surprised by this.  Russia has had years to identify all the key places to hit if there's a war.  At least 1 year since planning for this war was started.  Spying is something Russia is supposed to be good at!

Then I remembered all the stories of KGB agents in cushy western countries filing false reports, false expenses, false agents, etc. so that they seemed to be doing their job when in fact they were just living well off of all the money sent by the Kremlin for the things they weren't really doing.  I wonder how much of that is still going on.

Steve

[DesertFox]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The guys in the third tank called it wrong. that was the time to abandon ship, not back up slowly in what clearly a kill zone. 

Also, i don't know if tanks are over, but tanks without GOOD APS are definitely over.

Appears to be that not all are arty hits in this clip. See posts in the thread. Anyways, yes armor alone in the open, bunching up and not moving tactically is doomed with or without APS.

 

 

[akd]

Interesting.  Think I’ve seen some imagery of Russian troops moving around with these also:

 

[Desertor]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Maybe the U.K.?

Uk is NW from my position, those planes are W bounded...

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

 

[acrashb]

52 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The intricacies of the russian Orlan-10 drone...

COTS-type products on military hardware is just an example of smart, frugal engineering.  If a common bottle lid meets the specs, have at it.

Kind of like the choice between developing a ball-point pen that will write in zero gravity vs. just using a pencil.

 

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Maquisard manqué said:

+ the fellowship of the ring/volunteers?

[Hapless]

34 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Kind of like the choice between developing a ball-point pen that will write in zero gravity vs. just using a pencil.

That might be a pretty good analogy for the Russian army actually:

Contemplating a decaying orbit in a malfunctioning spacecraft short-circuited by the free-floating graphite shards of a broken pencil point; trying desperately to solve the problem by sharpening the pencil some more and adding to the cloud of pencil shavings clogging the instruments.

Should have invested in a pen guys! Or, you know... not gone to space.

(Not to say that COTS products and components aren't a good idea, providing they're being used because they work and not because Ivan found it in the bin and it happens to fit.)

[Kinophile]

Just to briefly call back to that UK ASM talking point.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512837866258419713?t=dHFviqY_y8YLe5CUL4oUmA&s=19

(Not sure if already posted)

And the Battle of Mariupol has now lasted longer that the 2nd Battle of Fallujah. And Hue.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[womble]

3 hours ago, sross112 said:

It is so hard for me to wrap my mind around Russia. They want to strut around and tell everyone how tough they are and how their military is so formidable, then say they are scared of Ukraine invading them. They have to attack Ukraine for their own security? But, I thought you had a strong military so you should be able to defend yourself if you were attacked. The circles of their logic makes my head hurt. 

 

This. So very much. They've been spouting it for years. I think they're training to be Electric Monks, able to sincerely believe three mutually contradictory things simultaneously. They're at a good two, now; they just need someone to think of what contradicts both those world views so they can get working on the third.

[womble]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

COTS-type products on military hardware is just an example of smart, frugal engineering.  If a common bottle lid meets the specs, have at it.

Kind of like the choice between developing a ball-point pen that will write in zero gravity vs. just using a pencil.

 

'Cept pencils shed graphite powder. Having conductive powder floating around a habitat that relies on sensitive electrics to maintain a survivable environment is... bold.