How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maquisard manqué]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.

tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like  watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs. 

Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.

There’s likely more off camera, unless the BTR really is spraying & praying.

The arty at the end of the clip suggests it wasn’t a lone tank too. Although it doesn’t look as surgical as some things have - so could be less directed?

Edited April 5, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[c3k]

43 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

So basically what you did was change your position based upon information that you've since read in others posts which has outlined that it's not easy at all for Putin to just throw more troops into the grinder. Not easy at all! Let me remind you what you originally stated so we can all see the contrast:
 

If that were not enough, two additional points:

1. There is a very good reason this is called a 'Special Operation' and is not a 'war'. 
2. There is a very good reason Putin is resorting to desperate measures to use Chechens, Syrians, Georgians, mercenaries and just about anyone else he can find, employ, bribe or strongarm (quality unimportant).

Are these really "figments of the West's imagination"?

So I'm still waiting to hear from you why 1 and 2 above are really just trivial matters for Putin's manpower as you have  claimed they are. In your own words....

Everything that I have read about the Russian system and the conflict flies totally in the face of this statement that Putin can leverage his nation's manpower, it's simply not that easy without declaring war to justify it. But you asserted that Putin does not need to declare war, in your words:
 

Given that manpower is now already a make or break situation for the Russian war effort (I mean we can all see that), ask the question ..... why is he not doing this ^ already?

 

Sigh.

I did not change my position.

Putin is a dictator in all but name.

Putin controls Russia. There are some institutions left that have a semblance of independence, but if push came to shove, Putin would co-opt them, directly or indirectly.

Putin has the power (REAL power) to send conscripts into Ukraine. The law in Russia is a joke. If it affects Putin, then it becomes whatever he wants. If it does not affect him, then he doesn't care.

Figments of the West's imagination: that the rule of law matters in Russia.

Putin is calling it a "special operation". Is it that, or is it the invasion of one sovereign entity by another? 

To directly answer your question 1 is trivial. Putin can claim the "special operation" is an internal matter. That Ukraine is a breakaway republic subject to Russian laws and control. LOLz...  (This is the PRC view of Taiwan, so there is precedent.) if Putin does that, then ipso facto, the borders of Ukraine actually become the borders of Russia IN HIS VIEW. Thereby allowing him to use new conscripts "within" the borders of Russia, to defend against a guerilla war funded and supplied by the Hitlerite West. 

2. Putin is throwing everything he can at Donbas because he does not want to, nor can he afford to, lose face. When the Syrians, Chechens, and anything else he has FAILS to achieve that face-saving, then he will not hesitate to tell Russia that the Hitlerite West needs to be stopped in the breakaway republic of Ukriane (which he will sell to Russia that Ukraine is begging for Russia's help). Then he'll shove more bodies into the breach.

 

Why is he not doing this already? Because up until the withdrawal from Kyiv, he's been living in fantasy-land. Now, perhaps, he sees how bad it is going. 

 

I'm really not sure why you think I've changed my position about Putin being a dictator and having the ability to send Russian conscripts into battle in Ukraine.  Will there be difficulties with doing so? Of course. But he has the capability.

 

What am I missing that has you so put out by my comment?

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

At 0:40 the BTR firing aims in the tanks direction but then shifts back and fires another burst, as if it hadn't seen the damn thing. Panicky or damaged optics, maybe.

tbh I'm surprised the UKR tank is unsupported and alone. They seem to move a bit so seems functional. Also its odd seeing them miss, like  watching a WW2 film. I'm so used to m1A2s and their 1 shot/1 kill, esp at that range. An abrams would have slaughtered all those BTRs. 

Still, good work; thats a motivated and smart crew for sure.

Two U.S. heavy brigades could run the Russians out of Ukraine in three days If the fuel and ammo could keep up.

[Gpig]

from that drone footage of the single UA tank, this is the location

Edited April 5, 2022 by Gpig
You can see the landmarks in this google maps, satt pic

[Homo_Ferricus]

4 minutes ago, Gpig said:

from that drone footage of the single UA tank, this is the location

And this is in Chernihiv Oblast as Haiduk pointed out?

[Gpig]

2 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

And this is in Chernihiv Oblast as Haiduk pointed out?

50.56392636558975, 31.495402295067468

Yessir. 

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two U.S. heavy brigades could run the Russians out of Ukraine in three days If the fuel and ammo could keep up.

Prove it!

[sburke]

some discussion of Ukraine's possible use of laser designators and better drone technology.  @Haiduknot sure of his source accuracy, but he generally writes good stuff.

One Shot, One Kill: Ukrainian Gunners Fire Laser-Guided Shells At Russian Vehicles (msn.com)

[Aragorn2002]

20 minutes ago, sburke said:

It gets complicated.  Most relatively well-off countries have declining birth rates for a lot of different reasons.   Generally, what alters the demographics is immigration.  This can and has created a lot of social upheaval due to perceptions about cultural change.  Immigration increases diversity which can be perceived as a threat by other groups.  If you look at Japan for example, immigration has long been deterred and the result is a rapidly aging but generally uniform non diverse population.

In the US you have an increasingly diverse population that is aging more slowly, but with a lot of social issues due to that immigration.

US Aging Population Problems & Healthcare Issues (businessinsider.com)

Europe's population is aging rapidly. Here's how to turn that into an opportunity | CNN

Perhaps those Ukrainian refugees are a blessing in disguise. There's quite a lot of criticism (especially from my Afghan lady ) about the warm welcome Ukrainians get in Europe ccompared to Afghans and Syrians. I get that, but that also has to do with culture, I guess.

[danfrodo]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps those Ukrainian refugees are a blessing in disguise. There's quite a lot of criticism (especially from my Afghan lady ) about the warm welcome Ukrainians get in Europe ccompared to Afghans and Syrians. I get that, but that also has to do with culture, I guess.

Sounds like there's lots of Russian science & tech folks fleeing right now.  I think they'd make any country better. 

I've been on two business trips to Israel.  It was interesting how the Russian Jewish immigrants had changed Israel into a tech leader since so many of them were very highly educated engineers and scientists.  Most of the engineers I worked with had Russian names.  What a great bunch of folks!  And much better food than I think they would've had in Russia.  "Dan, have you tried the schnitzel, it's very good today!" 

So yes, best of Russia's most educated citizens -- please leave and come and enrich the the free world instead of being forced to make computer viruses by Putin.  Your children and grandchildren will thank you.

[Ts4EVER]

I'm a teacher in Germany and already have a few Ukrainian refugees in my classrooms. Sadly I mostly teach English and they don't learn that there, so basically they are at the utterly wrong level for my classes. So I mostly give them German as foreign language material or Ukrainian textbooks on an Ipad for self learning, but all of this is not really a satisfactory solution.

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

not sure of his source accuracy, but he generally writes good stuff.

Until I see real evidences or any confimations  that our artillery use our guided ammunition, I will consider that Western experts just can't believe that our artillery have such skills, gained for 8 years of practice, to hit the point target with 1-2 of usuaal shells   

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, Taranis said:

 

Russian army shelling Maryinka with MLRS GRAD (south of Donetsk)

Another pointless "I have a very big penis" video from the Russian side.  They seem to put these out very regularly to prove how well endowed they are, yet we know that most of their rocket fire is directed at civilians so it's not really militarily impressive.  Which means whenever I see a video like this I think, "the Russians are self-conscious about their penis size".

Steve

[Degsy]

Russian Embassy in Dublin about to run out of heating fuel.

The Embassy's heating runs on diesel but no-one is willing to sell to them. The Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, is asking the Irish Foreign Ministry to look into this into this "clearly discriminatory case". I wonder how much diesel the average diplomatic bag holds because I don't see them getting it any other way.

[Homo_Ferricus]

29 minutes ago, Gpig said:

50.56392636558975, 31.495402295067468

Yessir. 

Thanks. Not sure if it was pointed out already but that means this was video of the recent pullout. This column is getting shot up as it tries to leave the country.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Degsy said:

Russian Embassy in Dublin about to run out of heating fuel.

The Embassy's heating runs on diesel but no-one is willing to sell to them. The Russian Ambassador, Yuri Filatov, is asking the Irish Foreign Ministry to look into this into this "clearly discriminatory case". I wonder how much diesel the average diplomatic bag holds because I don't see them getting it any other way.

Interesting.  Kind of a global social shunning being practiced at a local level.  Russia you are a worldwide pariah!  Enjoy your new status.  Even your  'friendly' chinese are really only interested in taking your fossil fuels for very cheap.

[Battlefront.com]

Another really nice looking BTR captured by the Tractor Brigade:

 

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

Another really nice looking BTR captured by the Tractor Brigade:

 

It never gets boring, does it?

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting.  Kind of a global social shunning being practiced at a local level.  Russia you are a worldwide pariah!  Enjoy your new status.  Even your  'friendly' chinese are really only interested in taking your fossil fuels for very cheap.

"Tell you what.  We'll give you fuel to keep yourselves warm as soon as you do the same for Ukrainians".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Aragorn2002 said:

It never gets boring, does it?

No it does not!

[sburke]

Russia says it received $3.6 billion less than it forecast from March oil and gas sales, suggesting the Ukraine war and Western sanctions hit exports (msn.com)

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No it does not!

 i want one of those for my medal collection!

Edited April 5, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

This picture tells us a couple of things that might not be so obvious:

The tank was not likely pushed off as moving a tank sideways like that is almost impossible without special equipment.  So let's assume the tank drove off.

IMHO it looks like the tank was going too fast for the conditions, the driver made a small steering error (easily done in a tracked vehicle at speed), and found himself with his right track not lined up with the approaching bridge.  Because there is no shoulder on the right side of the bridge, and no margin of error, over he went.

This tells PROBABLY tells us this tank was in a hurry to go somewhere and the driver did not adjust speed to suit the conditions.  Based on the fact there is a smiling Ukrainian showing us this, I'd say the tank was likely withdrawing under pressure (perhaps even panic).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia says it received $3.6 billion less than it forecast from March oil and gas sales, suggesting the Ukraine war and Western sanctions hit exports (msn.com)

I read a quick analysis of Russia's ability to avoid defaulting on its sovereign debt.  Basically it stated that it made the last round of payments by the skin of its teeth and is going to have more and more problems meeting its obligations each passing month.  And that was before the decrease in national revenue was getting factored in.  So anybody want to take bets on if Russia is deemed in default this month or next?

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This picture tells us a couple of things that might not be so obvious:

I'd say the tank was likely withdrawing under pressure (perhaps even panic).

Steve

TC.  "hey is that a drone?"

Driver "yeeeaaahhhhhhhhh!!" Pedal to the metal baby!