How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, kraze said:

I completely agree and I won't say that West isn't helping. The help is great and makes a real difference.

However in retrospective the likes of Merkel aren't blameless for what's happening today as German government, for example, was saving Russia in 2014 from worse punishment and heavily downplaying the 2014 invasion and occupation, not to mention trying to hinder any military help to Ukraine over the past 8 years.

Absolutely. Never been a fan of Merkel to be honest. 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

You and Michael are getting close to each other by the day. (Michael doing most of the moving)

Heh, thanks for that.  Michael's latest is a really good read.  He has a way of boiling this stuff down to the main points.

The one thing I wish he would address, in some way, is that Russia's mobilization problem isn't just with warm bodies in uniforms, but also the basics needed for those guys to fight.  I have no evidence of what Russia has for stocks of body armor, but I'd bet a pretty good sized pile of money that they don't have enough to outfit the new conscripts.  Not to mention things like NVGs.  Russian spending priorities and corruption makes me think that whatever Russia has is largely deployed already.

Aside from personal kit likely being insufficient in quantity, what about serviceable vehicles?  There's some evidence that Russia is struggling to come up with replacements for the current field units.  Even when it does find something to pull out of storage that works, it's older stuff.  I highly doubt there are T-72B3 or B3M sitting around ready to go.  I also wonder how much VDV specific vehicles are still available.

On top of this, what about the expensive high profile stuff like air defenses, C2 posts, EW, etc.?

Anyway, just me saying that I think there's even more to the story than Kaufman has discussed.

Steve

[SteelRain]

7 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nope you have your information wrong. Alot of them were put out of action 2020, when the Batallions received their Pumas.

This is the article i was referring to, released on 19.08.2014. Sadly in German only

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article131363979/Der-Ort-an-dem-36-Tonnen-Panzer-zerlegt-werden.html

The Puma deliveries were stretched over the last 8 years or so and in that period most of the marders were already gone. 

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I think with the exception of far left and far right the majority of polititians and population agree with that. Even still, majority think sanctions and weapon supplies do not go far enough today.

My opinion: politicians have kept major supplies like tanks off the table in the first weeks to have cards to play in reaction to foreseeable war crimes like the current ones. Otherwise they would have no response besides we cant risk own boots on the ground, which would be bad PR.

I don't think there was any smart thinking like that. Remember - Ukraine was given from "a few hours" to "48 hours" before it stops existing - as an excuse to not help.

I think some even hoped they won't need to bother because it will be over quickly and business will go on as usual.

Europe was taken by surprise just like Russia. The sole fact that first sanctions weren't even realistically considered and had to be put together for a week kinda proves that.

as a side note - Germans finally sending us 5000 helmets they were promising to send us a month before the escalation and stalling up until a week after Feb 24th.- when everybody already was sending us a wild assortment of fun shooty-killy things - became an ironic Fifth Element pool ball meme here for a while (until panzerfausts came)

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nah, see my earlier answer above. We are not talking about those old ones. 100 vehicles which mostly stem from the switch to Puma and are still in NATO reserve. Those are also deemed to be destroyed but were used until 2020.

The Puma is a far superior vehicle, but the Marder can still be used as a stop gap in case of emergency. 

[Fernando]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have a theory about the Bucha road murders.  I think this was Russia's way of compensating for the inability to beat Ukraine on the battlefield.  March a bunch of citizens out onto the road, murder them so they are easy found, then withdraw with a "see, we showed you!" attitude.

I don't know from how far up the chain of command this concept came from, but I'd say it was at least company level though likely higher.  I doubt a platoon would do this sort of thing on its own accord.

Note, I am talking only about the specific action of Russian troops deliberately putting bodies out on the road and/or killing them on the spot.  The murders, torture, rape, and other things going on are likely being done for different reasons.  More than one, I'm sure. 

However, the common element here is that Russian units are inherently murderous to an extent completely alien to us in the West.  What would be a horrible exception in a Western armed force is routine in the Russian.  What would be the actions of a few individuals in the West is most likely being done under orders of at least a junior officer in the Russian armed forces.  Then we add the FSB into the mix who are an instrument of terror and inhumanity in their own country against their own people... not difficult to explain their behavior towards foreigners.

Steve

The reason for mass murdering Ukrainian men I think is that Ukraine has mobilized all men between 16 and 60, if I remember correctly. Ukrainian men in the captured territories could not directly take up arms, but once the Russian soldiers leave, they can be conscripted into the Ukrainian army or become volunteers. For the Russians it is better to kill Ukrainians now than to find them later armed and organized into Ucranian military units.

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

This is the article i was referring to, released on 19.08.2014. Sadly in German only

https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article131363979/Der-Ort-an-dem-36-Tonnen-Panzer-zerlegt-werden.html

The Puma deliveries were stretched over the last 8 years or so and in that period most of the marders were already gone. 

Yeah. Now look up PzBrig 12 and PzGrenBtls 112 and 122 when they replaced their Marders with Pumas.

Panzergrenadierbataillon 112 in Vorbereitung auf VJTF (bundeswehr.de)

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

I don't think there was any smart thinking like that. Remember - Ukraine was given from "a few hours" to "48 hours" before it stops existing - as an excuse to not help.

I think some even hoped they won't need to bother because it will be over quickly and business will go on as usual.

Europe was taken by surprise just like Russia. The sole fact that first sanctions weren't even realistically considered and had to be put together for a week kinda proves that.

as a side note - Germans finally sending us 5000 helmets they were promising to send us a month before the escalation and stalling up until a week after Feb 24th.- when everybody already was sending us a wild assortment of fun shooty-killy things - became an ironic Fifth Element pool ball meme here for a while (until panzerfausts came)

The German relationship with Russia is a very complicated one. If interested this is a good book:

Germany's Russia problem: The struggle for balance in Europe

 

[Sarjen]

11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Nah, see my earlier answer above. We are not talking about those old ones. 100 vehicles which mostly stem from the switch to Puma and are still in NATO reserve. Those are also deemed to be destroyed but were used until 2020.

So Trent used an old photo…

Anyhow. The German MoD send a list to Ukraine so they can easily tick of some entries to „shop“. Yes, you can call it a shopping list. Germany will buy it from weapons industries and send it to Ukraine. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Sarjen

[DMS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Assuming you do not believe Russian forces are willingly murdering civilians, including children, just for fun, what do you think are the reasons for the obvious war crimes of the Russian forces in Ukraine?  I am not asking you for any other reason than wanting to hear your opinion.  You are Russian, you served in the Russian Army, therefore you might have insights that we do not.

I didn't serve in Russian army.
This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As a strategic matter, it's entirely idiotic. Already, the word is that these war crimes show that Russia must be defanged in a definitive way which bluntly put means that Western support for a long war in the east of Ukraine just ramped up considerably and pressure from some to get Ukraine to take a bad deal has virtually evaporated. Putin's raising the costs on Russia both in this war and for long after for no appreciable gain. 

Strategically it was moronic for Ukrainians to upload videos of torturing and even killing unarmed POWs.  US service personnel torturing and humiliating Iraqis on video wasn't smart either.  Yet they did it because they have their own perspective and aren't strategic thinkers.

Russia has yet to be held accountable for overt criminal actions (MH-17, Skripal poisonings, phosphorous bombing of Alepo, etc.), so why should these guys fear repercussions for themselves or their nation?

Steve

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, DMS said:

but because this is completely illogical.

I think we are well past looking at the "logical" thing.  Heck the entire war doesn't seem logical, and yet Putin ordered it.  The brutality is commonplace.  They have openly mistreated people including firing on protestors against the occupation in other Ukrainian cities, bombing hospitals clearly marked as civilian refuge places.  While I am angered by the crimes displayed in Bucha, I am not surprised. It is one with the behavior exhibited by the Russian army in the rest of this war, by its activities in Syria and its actions against its own dissidents.

As Maya Angelou said When people show you who they are, believe them the first time.

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, DMS said:

I didn't serve in Russian army.
This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

No surprises there.

[akd]

10 minutes ago, DMS said:

I didn't serve in Russian army.
This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, DMS said:

I didn't serve in Russian army.

Ah, my mistake.

Thanks for responding.  I think it is good to get other viewpoints.

15 minutes ago, DMS said:

This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

Just because it doesn't make sense to you doesn't mean it didn't make sense to the people that were there.  From a certain perspective it DOES make sense to murder some civilians and litter the road with their bodies.  It could be to send a message, as I stated.  It could be that there was a crowd to tell them to f'off back to Russia and they instead shot them.  It could be that these people were rounded up as suspects in providing intel to Ukraine that led to the deaths of their comrades, then shot as a final act of revenge. 

There's a whole bunch of RATIONAL reasons to explain this that are far, far, far more believable than Ukraine faking things.

I will also point out that you had great difficulty believing what Russia was doing in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015.  The evidence was continuous and consistent, but you kept insisting that Russia had nothing to do with any of it.  Hopefully you have changed your mind since then because the "they are armed with captured Ukrainian stuff" was laughable from the start, but 8 years later would indicate some sort of cognitive problem.  I do not think you have such a problem, so I expect that you now understand how wrong you were.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

22 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah. Now look up PzBrig 12 and PzGrenBtls 112 and 122 when they replaced their Marders with Pumas.

Panzergrenadierbataillon 112 in Vorbereitung auf VJTF (bundeswehr.de)

Besides when BMP vehicles from the DDR can still be made serviceable, we can safely assume so can these Marders.

[Saberwander]

  

On 4/1/2022 at 5:53 PM, akd said:

Something appears to be methodically destroying all these Russian vehicles with high precision:

 

I'm a lurker following this very interesting and illuminating discussion. I just wanted to point out one thing about this video (you've had a discussion whether it was guided or not).

At about 33-34 second mark in this video you can see what appears to be a dot move across the ground - looks like a laser to me. I'm not sure how do the laser designators look from a drone but I'm sure there are people here who will be able to tell if that's a laser. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Saberwander

[akd]

Just now, Saberwander said:

I'm a lurker following this very interesting and illuminating discussion. I just wanted to point out one thing about this video (you've had a discussion whether it was guided or not).

At about 37 second mark in this video you can see what appears to be a dot move across the ground - looks like a laser to me. I'm not sure how do the laser designators look from a drone but I'm sure there are people here who will be able to tell if that's a laser. 

They are IR, so you wouldn’t see them in normal video like above.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

According to Azov defenders are already low on everything from water to food and ammo.

With the significant ukrainian losses being posted on pro russian telegrams and territorial losses geo located I am less optimistic but I hope history will prove me wrong.

Sure hope so, but perhaps the improved situation around Kiev, will allow the Ukrainian army to send more reinforcements South. 

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, I will point out that the people here concluded that the video of Ukrainians shooting Russian POWs in the legs was probably real, not a Russian false flag operation.  Why?  Because it is more probable that it was what it looked like.  The same thing with the bodies on the Bucha road.  Far more likely Russians shot and killed civilians than Ukraine put out a highly sophisticated false flag operation.

Also, ask yourself DMS... why would Ukraine need to fake something like this?  The evidence of Russian warcrimes and brutality towards civilians is already clearly established.  Why would it need to go out of its way to fake something to show Russia is a brutal aggressor when the flattened cities are ample evidence of this?  The well documented footage of Russian tank crews killing civilians and then the seizure of the evidence is enough, isn't it?  How about the missile that hit the city offices during work hours in Mykolaiv?  Not to mention the documented warcrimes in Ukraine over the last 8 years, Syria, Chechnya, and everywhere else Russian military goes.

If you think that we should dismiss something that is illogical, then clearly we must dismiss your false flag theory because it is illogical to an extreme degree.

Steve

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, DMS said:

I didn't serve in Russian army.
This narrative is irrational, hard to believe and contradicts to typical behaviour of soldiers we looked before (well, if they are so mad - they would openly beat and kick civilians all the time). People are killed just before filming, their clothes are clean, blood is still red. On this photo skin is... Like alive person's. Unfortunately I watched a lot of videos with dead people last month, they don't look like that already after few hours. So, that unit retreats from Bucha. Last rear guard. And so, they go and execute civilians to leave dead bodies for VSU? Just go to street and shoot and random people? Really? Hidden SBU agents in Russian ranks? They are retreating, their unit can be cut, they can easily become POWs. And they go and make street shooting for fun. I understand your point, ok, you got me - I "deny obvious war crime in Bucha", if you want. I sincerely can't believe in this story, not because Russian army is saint and can't do something bad (they do sometimes), but because this is completely illogical.

Clearly all the dead people are SBU plants with ketchup from nearby store for blood, destroyed cities are bad CGI, stolen washing machines and wedding rings are a sign of russian wealth and I'm "racist" - because that's logical.

[akd]

On the specific nonsense of the bodies being too “fresh” (and I seriously doubt the expertise needed to judge from photos is present here), here is an independent journalist on the ground there:

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Saberwander said:

  

I'm a lurker following this very interesting and illuminating discussion. I just wanted to point out one thing about this video (you've had a discussion whether it was guided or not).

At about 33-34 second mark in this video you can see what appears to be a dot move across the ground - looks like a laser to me. I'm not sure how do the laser designators look from a drone but I'm sure there are people here who will be able to tell if that's a laser. 

First of all, thank you for taking the time to register on the Forum to make this post.  All contributions are welcome!

YOU ARE CORRECT!!!!  That is a laser.  I'd bet tonight's dinner that is exactly what you saw.  Very good eyes in your head

However, it might not be a designator.  It could be a range finder.  The two are different beasts.  One is designed to guide a munition, the other is to determine location.  Designators have to be more powerful than range finders.  Here is a simple explanation about the differences:

https://pointerclicker.com/laser-pointer-vs-laser-designator/

I don't know if designators show up as red or use a different spectrum.

Steve

[Lethaface]

15 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Besides when BMP vehicles from the DDR can still be made serviceable, we can safely assume so can these Marders.

The effort is better spend producing more new vehicles. 

[kraze]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, I will point out that the people here concluded that the video of Ukrainians shooting Russian POWs in the legs was probably real, not a Russian false flag operation.  Why?  Because it is more probable that it was what it looked like.  The same thing with the bodies on the Bucha road.  Far more likely Russians shot and killed civilians than Ukraine put out a highly sophisticated false flag operation.

Also, ask yourself DMS... why would Ukraine need to fake something like this?  The evidence of Russian warcrimes and brutality towards civilians is already clearly established.  Why would it need to go out of its way to fake something to show Russia is a brutal aggressor when the flattened cities are ample evidence of this?  The well documented footage of Russian tank crews killing civilians and then the seizure of the evidence is enough, isn't it?  How about the missile that hit the city offices during work hours in Mykolaiv?  Not to mention the documented warcrimes in Ukraine over the last 8 years, Syria, Chechnya, and everywhere else Russian military goes.

If you think that we should dismiss something that is illogical, then clearly we must dismiss your false flag theory because it is illogical to an extreme degree.

Steve

I'm pretty sure DMS knows full well it's a real war crime done by his army. And is ok with it.

I talked to a lot of russians and hear them talk a lot in the last 8 years to know about this classic "let's act naїve" act. It's almost like a group mentality in relation to standing up for holiness of their country where they consciously deny every obvious fact until they can't anymore. Then they go "well Ukrainians deserved it anyway, whatcha gonna do about it?".