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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Just now, Bulletpoint said:

Alright, I was guessing it was something to do with that. I think the ones leaving these mines on the road did not have time to do anything like that.

Also I'm guessing that the reason they push the mines aside is to avoid triggering any anti-lifting fuzes.

Splinty probably has more direct experience with this 😐, but the idea is you can burn a small deep hole in tarmac much faster and less obviously than by digging/picking and then plant a bouncing betty or just a hand grenade under the AT mine.

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15 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Splinty probably has more direct experience with this 😐, but the idea is you can burn a small deep hole in tarmac much faster and less obviously than by digging/picking and then plant a bouncing betty or just a hand grenade under the AT mine.

They liked to bury 82mm mortar bombs with the fuses pointing up. 

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@Combatintman all respect, but what about the intelligence of the UKR unit planning/executing this?

It was a dicey operation, and taking a real chance of giving Putin a propaganda coup - potentially downed helos, captured air crew, nazis captured attacking homeland and all that crap.

I'd personally trust that they're not going to waste helos, NATO ISR, critical crew, public narrrative...on civilian fuel.

OTH I totally could see RUS handling things like that, because, well, they ve been...

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Looks like it's not just "civilian" fuel that's burning.

Russian social networks are full of rage over Belgorod. They are all like "we were told those damn village khohols are done for but they are bombing our cities now WHAT IS THIS".

Those poor good anti-war russians.

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3 minutes ago, Splinty said:

They liked to bury 82mm mortar bombs with the fuses pointing up. 

If you need anything, just nod....

You know, that old movie is starting to seem like a documentary, not fiction.

There's only one way out of this valley, back through that pass you came through.

Or....

You know our standing orders: Out of commission, become a bunker; out of ammo, become a pillbox; out of time, become heroes....

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4 minutes ago, kraze said:

Looks like it's not just "civilian" fuel that's burning.

Russian social networks are full of rage over Belgorod. They are all like "we were told those damn village khohols are done for but they are bombing our cities now WHAT IS THIS".

Those poor good anti-war russians.

THIS IS WAR !

The enemy crosses the gates and brings fire & destruction in the motherland, That is really a Will Smith style slap in the face to Poo Tin!

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21 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Isn't the fuze only activated when the shell is fired out of the mortar?

They were using old school impact fuzes as far as I know. I never saw one of those mortat IEDs explode personally. But one Humvee from my battalion did run over one and lost a wheel and took a bunch of shrapnel damage. Fortunately the crew only received minor injuries. Uparmored Humvees are pretty tough

 

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26 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Isn't the fuze only activated when the shell is fired out of the mortar?

It could depend on fuze used. For example, 12 years ago WW1 fuze (can't remember the name sorry, something like "Mle 1918") for 120mm mortar still existed. This one haven't any safety. By the way, because it was dangerous, it was never fired/distributed in the 2010's by my unit in exercise or in mission. 
I don't know russian fuzes but honestly, I don't think they really care of it contrary to Western armies...
Moreover, I don't think Irak, Afghanistan or LPDR had generally modern stuff...

Edited by Taranis
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2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

So to summarize, you still don't know then.  Here's a bonus question for you - which facility is it?

This was "Belgorodnefteprodukt" oil depot, the largest one in Belgorod oblast. It belongs to Rosneft company, control stake of which owns state Rosneftegaz company. 

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13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This was "Belgorodnefteprodukt" oil depot, the largest one in Belgorod oblast. It belongs to Rosneft company, control stake of which owns state Rosneftegaz company. 

Anything that hurts Rosneft is good, I reckon.

As to whether it'll hurt the invasion's logistics, that does depend on a lot of things. I think most of the Russian ground vehicles run on plain ole' diesel, and that's probably the majority fuel used for all automotion in Russia, so it will depend on the proportion of the tankage hit that actually holds diesel, how much other diesel tankage there is, and how well the military can requisition supplies for its use over and above civilian provision. If there's an ocean of diesel being stored in various locations, and the RA can consistently remain at the front of the queue, it won't have much effect. If that facility is all there was, and civilian supply contracts are permitted to retain priority, there could be fewer military tankers polling down roads to be killed.

The pictures of queues at a gas station don't speak to very much other than the perennial reaction of populations to perceived threat of potential shortage.

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Izium is abandoned by Ukrainan troops. Russians tried to advance further to Mala Kamyshuvakha, but were repelled. From Izium to Sloviansk 50 km. Reportedly Russians try to advance to this city from two directions - from Izium and from the area north from Sloviansk - form villages Terny and Yampolivka

Russians and LDPR forces also conducted heavy shellings and fierce assault actions in Siveroidonetsk, Rubizhne, Popasna of Luhansk oblast and launched offensive near Velyka Novoselivka, west of Donetsk oblast toward the group attacking from the north

 

Edited by Haiduk
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/risks-russian-ceasefire-offer

Don't think this has been posted yet.  Some very good points, the main one being that we in the west need to rethink the algorithms of this war in terms of what it really is, and not the lens we normally have viewed this thing thru.  In the west "ceasefire" is a prelude to peace...for Russia, not so much.  Of course I have zero doubt that the Ukrainian government does not already know this.

The concept of a ceasefire in this war is not really between Ukraine and Russia, it is really between Russian and the West.

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3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Izium is abandoned by Ukrainan troops. Russians tried to advance further to Mala Kamyshuvakha, but were repelled. From Izium to Sloviansk 50 km. 

 

I read that too but preferred waiting confirmation by better informed persons like you. That's not a good news. Hope the bridgehead could be erased in the coming days/weeks or at least contained. I read that the fighting are really stiff in the area. Since the last days I was hoping there is some UKR brigade reserve behind the saliant of Donetsk to be ready to crush any breakthrough in the nothern or southern flank.
But, to reassure us, I am convinced that the excellent Ukrainian army is at least preparing a defense in depth. RA does not like stretched and harassed logistics lines

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1 hour ago, Panserjeger said:

Map of recaptured settlements and possible Russian pockets:

 

This is all starting to look very much like @The_Capt's (and/or Steve's) point several hundred pages back:  when one side is roadbound then who's 'encircling' whom, really? And what do those blobs of red and blue on maps honestly signify in terms of 'control'?

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSDKFnwokxYpNOx5P74pVm

Forget the fuel LOCs. Russians are fast running out of time to get their shinola together and field their own leg infantry kill squads to screen their various hedgehog positions. But do their line infantry have the mojo, still less the kit, to get down and dirty in the steppes? with Ukrainian snipers going to work on them, day and night (with NVG)....

Elsewise, this is going to be the UA eating the proverbial elephant... one bite at a time.

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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