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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians shot down our Mi-8, which flew from Mariupol with injured soldiers onboard. The crash site is near Rybatske village in 5 km from SW outskirt of Mariupol. 

Judging on Azov's Telegram there were several successfull routes, but probably Russians inelligence uncover theses flights and helicopter was ambushed

Зображення

Julian Röpcke is reporting this was one of four helicopters in the evacuation and that it was carrying Azov leaders (though he later tweeted he believes Kalina's death is faked):

 

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19 minutes ago, Machor said:

Julian Röpcke is reporting this was one of four helicopters in the evacuation and that it was carrying Azov leaders (though he later tweeted he believes Kalina's death is faked):

 

Don't know how he idiotically jumped to the conclusion that "most of the Azov leadership was killed" other than just straight up reporting Russian propaganda without even thinking about it?  Quite a reporter there...

Edited by akd
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26 minutes ago, akd said:

Don't know how he idiotically jumped to the conclusion that "most of the Azov leadership was killed" other than just straight up reporting Russian propaganda without even thinking about it?  Quite a reporter there...

He works for the BILD newspaper, a rag which is equivalent to the Sun in the UK. 90% of what they publish can be dismissed as sensationalist or provocative nonsense, if not outright lies/twists of the truth.

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37 minutes ago, akd said:

Don't know how he idiotically jumped to the conclusion that "most of the Azov leadership was killed" other than just straight up reporting Russian propaganda without even thinking about it?  Quite a reporter there...

Well, the Russians SHOOT honest reporters, or worse than that. The fact this guy is still alive is all you need to know.

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Two volunteer battalions claim to have cleared all the villages along the T-25-27 from Staryi/Novyi Bykiv (just east of Nova Basan) up to Svitanok, which is a pretty significant change in the control picture if true (40km of road):

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Edited by akd
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I'm glad to see UKR regaining territory.  I understood the RF is redeploying it's northern forces to the south, so more gains in this area north and east of Kyiv should be expected, correct?  Or have I misread the situation?

Edited by Fenris
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2 hours ago, akd said:

Don't know how he idiotically jumped to the conclusion that "most of the Azov leadership was killed" other than just straight up reporting Russian propaganda without even thinking about it?  Quite a reporter there...

Don't be too quick to disregard it entirely though.

Nighttime Helo lifts out of Mariupol are a *very* high risk operation and the UA knows it. I am a little skeptical that it would be done purely to evacuate wounded. Possible, but not likely.

So a pullout of key Azov cadre who 'know too much' to be let fall into enemy hands seems militarily plausible.

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With this helo story I think there are a lot of conclusions being drawn without knowing the facts. I don't know the facts either but earlier Haiduk advised that these helo ops were news to everyone. Makes sense as if you are running clandestine supplies in and medevacs out you probably don't want that on twitter for the RA to find. 

Legitimate question: Do you really think the Azoz command group would abandon ship? I don't know so I'm curious what people think. Unless it is about to collapse and even then I'd be surprised if the whole command group bolted. Just seems like too much passion, emotion and commitment to the cause for that. If the whole or majority of the defending remnants were attempting to extract I could see it but not just the command group.  

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20 minutes ago, sross112 said:

With this helo story I think there are a lot of conclusions being drawn without knowing the facts. I don't know the facts either but earlier Haiduk advised that these helo ops were news to everyone. Makes sense as if you are running clandestine supplies in and medevacs out you probably don't want that on twitter for the RA to find. 

Legitimate question: Do you really think the Azoz command group would abandon ship? I don't know so I'm curious what people think. Unless it is about to collapse and even then I'd be surprised if the whole command group bolted. Just seems like too much passion, emotion and commitment to the cause for that. If the whole or majority of the defending remnants were attempting to extract I could see it but not just the command group.  

Every single Ukrainian soldier In Mariupol has proven themselves to be suicidally brave, bleep me they had proven it two weeks ago. If a member of the command group was too badly wounded to be useful in a last stand, though, I could see the extraction attempt.  We also don't know how many flights they have gotten in and out.  It. could be they been getting a trickle of supplies in and wounded out all the way thru. that might explain how they have held out so long.

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9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Don't know how accurate this is but could make for a new Shield of Kiev campaign

Ukraine’s Best Tank Brigade Has Won The Battle For Chernihiv (msn.com)

I am running out of words to describe how brave these people are, and how competent. A month straight of high intensity mechanized warfare, and some of them are still alive!!!!!!

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A detailed explanation about how it is that 300 soldiers went from South Ossetia to Ukraine and back again.

I can't speak to the accuracy of the details, but it does ring true.  And as explained in the Tweet thread, until recently (2017) these guys were part of a more-or-less independent military unit similar to DLPR.  And also like DLPR, their motivation was to defend their "homeland".  The problem for Russia is, and has always been, that their definition of "homeland" isn't the concept of Russia.  It's much more local than that.  So yanking these guys out of their homes sticking them in Ukraine was never going to go well.

Another quote from the above Tweet that caught my eye is this...

Quote

5.1 This triggered Ossetians to come up with a tense theory: “They want to have as many people from Caucasus slaughtered in this senseless bloodbath as possible”. (Interestingly enough, there is a disproportionate number of casualties from Dagestan and North Ossetia per capita).

There is some truth to this, I'm sure.  The Russian leadership incompetence and desperation certainly applies to all forces in the field (i.e. ethnic Russians aren't getting much better treatment), however if more senior leadership had a choice between throwing away an ethnic Russian unit or one from South Ossetia... well... I'd be surprised if he went with the Russian unit.

Steve

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10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

"They want to have as many people from Caucasus slaughtered in this senseless bloodbath as possible”

That's an ideal way of promoting national unity, too, once Russia is "properly reconstituted." Nothing like old conflicts to foster feelings of community. Not that Putin or his little wizards really have head space for thinking that far into the future right now...

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Not much confirmation of what happened yet, but this source says it was a Ukrainian helicopter.  That could very well be because of the height the missiles were fired from.  And ground based rockets wouldn't have flat trajectories:

https://www.teletrader.com/russian-fuel-storage-unit-hit-in-ukraine-missile-attack-gov/news/details/57607309?ts=1648789030560

This will be very interesting to see how it plays out.  Ukraine must be feeling pretty confident to conduct airstrikes pretty deep into Russian airspace.

Steve

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Ukrainians have solid brass $%^$ the size of cannon balls. Also can't adequately describe how bad the Russians are at this war thing. Do we think they pulled the IFF transponder off of a downed Russian heli? Or just figured on the Russian radar operators paying more attention to a vodka bottle. The real history of this thing is going to be amazing. I wonder if they will visit an airbase on the way home?

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