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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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Un militaire ukrainien se tient dans une rue du village de Loukianivka, à l’est de Kiev, Ukraine, dimanche 27 mars 2022.

I don't own CMBS or any modern titles. Too intense for me. Plus I have no knowledge of the equipment vs "learning" about WW2 from long long ago <since age 5???>. I have active duty kids and right or wrong some part of my brain shudders away from modern warfare. I hope this hell ends soon. 

Anyway, the above photo made me want to make a mod for you fellows who play CMBS to consider using. I suppose the file nomenclature would have this be for the CMBS UI "portrait ukrainian armor.bmp"...? Please rename if I am incorrect.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sshijv6ox3gpjy8/portrait ukrainian armor.bmp?dl=0

p55GwVR.png

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1 hour ago, Fernando said:

And here (00:04 time)  the flash seems too big, as if firing a blank image.thumb.png.eb1c94245095ba5b04801e47a060a14f.png

Please! Can we not have the discussion of these pictures!! Of prisoners of war! Real, or not!! No POW´s Should be filmed according to the Geneva convention!

Edited by Armorgunner
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1 hour ago, Gpig said:

Those videos DO pass the sniff test. It's understandable to not want to believe it.

Yes, number 3 guy you can see the involuntary reflex of his foot as he is shot, and the debris in front of his knee from possible bullet ricochet on ground. So yeah AK bullet to popliteal artery, time is limited.

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8 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Please! Can we not have the discussion of these pictures!! Of prisoners of war! Real, or not!!

You are not wrong to say that.  If it were just about the POW situation that would be one thing, but this is a bigger issue.

Still, I do not think any more of this should be posted.  Summaries of what others have come up with should be sufficient to keep us informed.

Steve

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1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are not wrong to say that.  If it were just about the POW situation that would be one thing, but this is a bigger issue.

Still, I do not think any more of this should be posted.  Summaries of what others have come up with should be sufficient to keep us informed.

Steve

Thanks

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8 minutes ago, akd said:

I think the warhead failed to function.  NLAW is probably not designed for that attack geometry / distance.

Yes, I didn't think the hit seemed as intended.

The NLAW is a strange missile.  It is always designed to attack at a right angle to its flight path.  At this steep of an angle that would not be ideal at all.

This is one of the major differences between NLAW and Javelin.  Javelin has a traditional warhead in the nose, which means you can fire straight at a target (in LOS Mode).  NLAW's downward directed blast means it is not designed to directly impact anything.

Steve

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20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You are not wrong to say that.  If it were just about the POW situation that would be one thing, but this is a bigger issue.

Still, I do not think any more of this should be posted.  Summaries of what others have come up with should be sufficient to keep us informed.

Steve

I just want to show that we from the West. Are so totally morally superior. And will show that we! Stand up, and still hold on to. What we decided together with Russia, at the 1949 Geneva Convention!

Edited by Armorgunner
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1 minute ago, Armorgunner said:

I just want to show that we from the West. Are so totally morally superior. And shows that we!!! Stand up, and still hold on. What we decided together with Russia, at the 1949 Geneva Convention!

The irony is that Russia's actions make it so much harder on the rest of the world to follow the rules.  But it is true, the Geneva Convention does not say "eye for an eye" or "do onto others as they do onto you".  I very much hope, and expect, that Ukraine follows the rules of war better than the Russians.  However, I do not expect Ukraine will be perfect.

Steve

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26 minutes ago, Pilaf said:

Yes, number 3 guy you can see the involuntary reflex of his foot as he is shot, and the debris in front of his knee from possible bullet ricochet on ground. So yeah AK bullet to popliteal artery, time is limited.

The other POWs in the video have been given western tourniquets. I dont think they'd waste time with that if they were going to dump them in a ditch.

 

On the point of validity, yes the Russian leaked documents causes doubt but I believe that to be coincidence.

Mistreatment and abuse (besides filming, which is pretty tame and common practice in every war, ever, since the invention of phones) has increased a lot during the last couple of days with stripping, beating and kicking.

What makes me esp. believe it is that this does not seem like the failed propaganda Russia has put out so far, if they were to fake it why not go all the way? Why show the common soldier that only the artillery officers get their knees capped and not the grunts who do the loading etc.

I think simplest explanation is as always that this was not directed by a ruskie film studio close to Kyiv but rather angry blokes releasing their anger much like the videos from previous days. I do hope the Officers find out who was doing that and get this sorted as their emotions hurt the war effort more than those russians did.

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Still, I do not think any more of this should be posted.  Summaries of what others have come up with should be sufficient to keep us informed.

Steve

 Whoops my bad, that got posted while I was still typing.

Edited by Kraft
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2 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The other POWs in the video have been given western tourniquets. I dont think they'd waste time with that if they were going to dump them in a ditch.

 

On the point of validity, yes the Russian leaked documents causes doubt but I believe that to be coincidence.

Mistreatment and abuse (besides filming, which is pretty tame and common practice in every war, ever, since the invention of phones) has increased a lot during the last couple of days with stripping, beating and kicking.

What makes me esp. believe it is that this does not seem like the failed propaganda Russia has put out so far, if they were to fake it why not go all the way? Why show the common soldier that only the artillery officers get their knees capped and not the grunts who do the loading etc.

I think simplest explanation is as always that this was not directed by a ruskie film studio close to Kyiv but rather angry blokes releasing their anger much like the videos from previous days. I do hope the Officers find out who was doing that and get this sorted as their emotions hurt the war effort more than those russians did.

 Whoops my bad, that got posted while I was still typing.

No problem with discussion.  In fact, I welcome it.  I was speaking specifically of graphic images/videos.  That is what we should stay away from.

Steve

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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Right!?  I mean the majority of their "combat veterans" are likely dead at this point.  The effort to RSOMI 100k troops is enormous.

They do this, or something like it, every year. There are about 200k conscripts, with each serving for 2 years = 100k intake each year. The bigger question is whether they conduct a stop-loss or release /previous/ year's draft on schedule.

If they do release, then it's going to be ... 2 months? before the new 100k are even moderately useful, meaning a BIG dip in operations between 1 Apr and early-mid June (which, coincidentally means high summer and firm ground)

If they don't release, then it's still early-mid June before the newbies get used, but the dip in ops between now and then will be lower. On the other hand, I imagine that the guys due to be released aren't going to be super happy about being held in uniform for another year. Also makes it even harder to maintain that whole "limited operation" bizzo with the public.

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5 minutes ago, JonS said:

They do this, or something like it, every year. There are about 200k conscripts, with each serving for 2 years = 100k intake each year. The bigger question is whether they conduct a stop-loss or release /previous/ year's draft on schedule.

If they do release, then it's going to be ... 2 months? before the new 100k are even moderately useful, meaning a BIG dip in operations between 1 Apr and early-mid June (which, coincidentally means high summer and firm ground)

If they don't release, then it's still early-mid June before the newbies get used, but the dip in ops between now and then will be lower. On the other hand, I imagine that the guys due to be released aren't going to be super happy about being held in uniform for another year. Also makes it even harder to maintain that whole "limited operation" bizzo with the public.

(waves hello in a southwestward direction)

The other thing to keep in mind is that Ukraine got started on their mobilizations a month ago.  And unlike the "trained" conscripts that Russia has to draw from, Ukraine has 8 years of veterans to draw from.

Using your timeframe, when Russia is ready with its 100,000 they might have to invade Ukraine from scratch as there might not be much to reinforce by then.  And what does Putin expect them to got into Ukraine with aside from their disposable bodies?  By all accounts Russia doesn't have stocks of 1st line anything lying around in any quantity.  Body armor?  Forget about it for sure.  They'll be lucky if they don't get marched into Ukraine with the expectation that the guy behind picks up the gun from the guy in front because they don't have enough to go around.  Russia's "been there, done that" before.

Steve

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21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The irony is that Russia's actions make it so much harder on the rest of the world to follow the rules.  But it is true, the Geneva Convention does not say "eye for an eye" or "do onto others as they do onto you".  I very much hope, and expect, that Ukraine follows the rules of war better than the Russians.  However, I do not expect Ukraine will be perfect.

Steve

I dont hold anyone from Ukraine responsible for anything. The big criminals are on the Russian leader side!! But I dont like to see POW on film. It can lead to retaliations, against family members of the POW´s.

Edited by Armorgunner
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