How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I can remember about 20 years ago people talking about the totally illuminated battlefield, we all rolled our eyes and then spent 20 years hunting a##holes in the sand.  Time to find the facepaint.

Didn't the US admit to pushing ISR to the UA?  Or is that a rumor?  I would put money on the bar it is happening.

If you can wade through the crisis actor bull****, John posted a link about ISR a couple days ago. I have also seen other reporting on the issue though I cannot now recall form which outlet. Last, we know US aircraft have been running racetrack on the far side of the Polish/Belarus/Ukraine border a month now, 100% those planes are ISR. Wouldn't be surprised if the whole area is saturated with ground search radar. I would think your bet that this intel is being passed along is a very safe one.

[akd]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I almost wonder if that was some APFSDS. You see the impact point and then a long rooster tail as the round passes through and the debris it carries with it impact the ground. 

I mean it could also be some kind of ATGM doing a nice little through and through, but that velocity!

 

HEAT-formed penetrator passing through, same as in earlier footage of BMP.

[Thomm]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I almost wonder if that was some APFSDS. You see the impact point and then a long rooster tail as the round passes through and the debris it carries with it impact the ground.

The launch point is made clearly visible by a small smoke plume.

Best regards,
Thomm

[Kinophile]

14 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

Man, you just believe everything you read on the internet don’t you?

I mean,they don't let just anyone have a website, right!

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

31 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 

 

The Russian army is on fire in a Ukrainian swamp, all the other people they have been beating down for more or less forever are quite aware of this. Azerbaijan won't be the last one that decides it is a great time for some payback.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Daaamn, that is impressive and worse.  Not much you can do with that.  Is it just me or is hiding on the modern battlefield getting really hard?

I've been struck by this for most of the war.  A few pages ago I posted my observations that even the most basic commercial drone can effectively spot and identify vehicles under heavy tree cover.  There goes 100 years of strategy for keeping prying eyes in the sky from spotting you.

Steve

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

I've been thinking a lot about the old '70s army maxim (maybe it dates to earlier?) "Concentrate to fight, disperse to live." I am getting an increasingly strong feeling that Russia has not fought flexibly and has tried, in classic Soviet fashion, to pound forward with a maximum amount of force along the leading edge. But, correct me if I'm wrong, highly dispersed units would be much easier to hide no? Less distinctive radio transmissions, fewer positions within the aperture of a drone lens (but what can you do against a satellite? Nothing problem, outside of shooting it down.) And of course this then invites roving AT teams or drone launched not-Hellfires to come and introduce themselves, violently. A drone can always cover x amount of terrain, but missiles can only fly so far. If they hit 1st platoon and 2nd platoon is out of the way, perhaps still undetected, thats better than watch all of A Coy go under, right? 

I wonder if a potential solution to this is just a much more fluid battlefield, much more rapid movements (even if it creates a sort of 'frontless' sea-saw) and an increasingly shorter OODA loop. 

Just thinking outloud here, not something I have a strong answer to. But a though I've been having. 

This one has been bugging me as well.  Disperse, get cut to pieces one at a time, concentrate and die together.  There is an old saying here in the old country -"fog eats the snow".  The UA looks and feels like fog, while the Russians are snow.  I am not sure if it matters if they are a snowbank or a snowball the result is the same.

Now if what if you have two forces with the same ISR capability now everyone can see everything.  You accept it and entirely lose the principle of surprise, which then pretty much kills a some of the other principles like concentration of force and possibly offence itself.  Or you basically have an entire phase of trying to achieve ISR superiority while denying the same to an opponent - a war of Sense.

The fact we are even questioning the principles of warfare is a good sign that something is afoot.  Of course if some are outdated, then what are the new ones? 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

In Finnish defense forces this frontage would be allocated to one platoon (this is very crowded for a company). At least 3 fighting positions for each tank with safe passage between them. And also safe locations for the tanks when not needed at battle positions.

The safe locations would be such that they could not be seen from the air. Finland camouflage net + dense forest. But here probably inside houses.

Not to take anything away from you Finns, but I think your forces are going to find these things don't work as well any more.

Drones can get too close, loiter too easily, check from different angles (including very low ones), and zoom in on suspected areas for visuals clues for there to be much hope of hiding.

The only hope of not getting spotted by a drone is to not have a drone in the area looking for you.  If the enemy has even an inkling that there might be something hidden, it will be found with a drone.

That said, digging single positions that are exposed to aerial observation, putting your AFVs in the positions, and leaving them there is dumb.  Just dumb.

Steve

[Hapless]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Back to my main question, how does one hide on the modern battlefield?

Maybe not too far to say you don't. Grossly simplified, but fighting takes place between EW-AD snowdomes: when a snowdome is pierced and collapses, the assets inside are quickly destroyed unless they can flee to another. We kinda already see that from an Air Force perspective (ie. SEAD -> DEAD -> Open Season), the prevalence of drone-artillery recon-strike is pretty much the same thing but for ground forces. Except with a crazy distributed OODA loop.

Then again, it's not like deception is dead. For all the talk of UGVs, I don't think anyone's mentioned their potential use as decoys yet.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been struck by this for most of the war.  A few pages ago I posted my observations that even the most basic commercial drone can effectively spot and identify vehicles under heavy tree cover.  There goes 100 years of strategy for keeping prying eyes in the sky from spotting you.

Steve

I think this might be one of the key take aways from this war to be honest, the entire loss of an ability to surprise. It may be at the heart of what killed, or at least severely wounded Russian mass.  I think our ability to process all this ISR data may have also caught up with our ability to collect it, or perhaps the UA distributed approach is one way to deal with it.

We have been focusing on ATGMs/UAV strikes but these are just the end of the kill-chain.  What may have crippled the Russian military here is the simple fact that they could not mass without being detected and hit...along with a healthy does of just plain old incompetency.  I am getting a whole "they were ready for the last war" vibe.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one has been bugging me as well.  Disperse, get cut to pieces one at a time, concentrate and die together.  There is an old saying here in the old country -"fog eats the snow".  The UA looks and feels like fog, while the Russians are snow.  I am not sure if it matters if they are a snowbank or a snowball the result is the same.

Now if what if you have two forces with the same ISR capability now everyone can see everything.  You accept it and entirely lose the principle of surprise, which then pretty much kills a some of the other principles like concentration of force and possibly offence itself.  Or you basically have an entire phase of trying to achieve ISR superiority while denying the same to an opponent - a war of Sense.

The fact we are even questioning the principles of warfare is a good sign that something is afoot.  Of course if some are outdated, then what are the new ones? 

A real peer to peer fight would involve literal clouds of drones, loitering, munitions and sensor platforms shredding each other until one side runs out of assets to fight with. The side that loses this fight might as well surrender. Because if the opposition has ISR and you don't they will just start with longest range systems, and then work down the list of your ranged assets with a snowballing advantage in fires. Losing the ISR battle means losing the war now, period.

[Kinophile]

On the other hand it's not really just about the isr platforms themselves is it? 

It really comes back to good old fashioned air dominance, right? Even a crummy little WW1 biplane could spot formations and identify artillery - if it was on molested in the air. 

I expect we're in the era of different layers of air dominance - you could have operational air dominance (with enemy fighters unable to freely operate) yet the ground forces at that same enemy could have tactical air dominance, giving them tactical ISR that your operational air war apparatus fundamentally cannot affect.

This implies that in the next major war (or if this goes on long enough) that we will see proper drone swarm v. drone swarm tactical level air wars.

Each battalion will have its own organic drone wing, not just little teams - but a bona fide vital line item, on par with organic mortars/SPA in the Batt's OOB.

 

EDIT @dan/california we're reading the same hymn sheet...

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

UKR commercial drone destroyed Russian SP-howitzer (2S3 of 2S19) with RKG-1600 bombs. The first bomb didn't explode, the second hit the target. Looks like this is night acion with thermal camera and probably light EW interference (unstable transmittion of video)

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Hapless said:

Maybe not too far to say you don't. Grossly simplified, but fighting takes place between EW-AD snowdomes: when a snowdome is pierced and collapses, the assets inside are quickly destroyed unless they can flee to another. We kinda already see that from an Air Force perspective (ie. SEAD -> DEAD -> Open Season), the prevalence of drone-artillery recon-strike is pretty much the same thing but for ground forces. Except with a crazy distributed OODA loop.

Then again, it's not like deception is dead. For all the talk of UGVs, I don't think anyone's mentioned their potential use as decoys yet.

Someone write this down: "March 26th 2022, Slightly cloudy, chance of rain.  Hapless kills all the contemporary theories of war."

[DesertFox]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been struck by this for most of the war.  A few pages ago I posted my observations that even the most basic commercial drone can effectively spot and identify vehicles under heavy tree cover.  There goes 100 years of strategy for keeping prying eyes in the sky from spotting you.

Steve

Just wait a few years and all these drones will have thermal imaging. We already enjoyed that on our Leos in the 80s and I really wonder what takes them so long to have that implemented in drones. There will be no hiding anymore. If you can see it you can kill it.

[db_zero]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I don't think I have seen this posted yet, apologize if it was.  Pretty even handed:

 

Informative video. Expect to see more and more coming out.

One part I don’t agree with is the contention that they can ramp up production easily.

As mentioned above there is a microchip issue. Car production was delayed and manufactures were shipped cars with old style instruments that didn’t require microchips due to the shortage.

Now with Covid ramping back up the possibility of more disruption to the production and supply chain is possible.

Neon gas used in lasers to cut silicon wafers is also in danger of becoming scarce.

Taiwan produces the vast majority of microchips-a reason why the US would contest any attempt of China to take the island.

Recently ground was broken in Arizona for a new microchip factory but it will be a while before it’s in operation.

All these smart weapons need microchips as well as other exotic materials.

another is tank dead video. 
 

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by db_zero

[akd]

300 visually confirmed Russian tank losses. 

 

[BeondTheGrave]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This one has been bugging me as well.  Disperse, get cut to pieces one at a time, concentrate and die together.  There is an old saying here in the old country -"fog eats the snow".  The UA looks and feels like fog, while the Russians are snow.  I am not sure if it matters if they are a snowbank or a snowball the result is the same.

Now if what if you have two forces with the same ISR capability now everyone can see everything.  You accept it and entirely lose the principle of surprise, which then pretty much kills a some of the other principles like concentration of force and possibly offence itself.  Or you basically have an entire phase of trying to achieve ISR superiority while denying the same to an opponent - a war of Sense.

The fact we are even questioning the principles of warfare is a good sign that something is afoot.  Of course if some are outdated, then what are the new ones? 

Perhaps ISR superiority will become what air superiority proved to be in '91. Could you imagine the US fighting in a contested airspace today? Let alone enemy air superiority. More importantly, can the US Army imagine what its like to fight in a state of contested airspace or enemy superiority? Im not as plugged into things these days, but I suspect not. 

Maybe ISR superiority will roll into the pre-offensive strike packages that set the conditions for attack. Kill the powerplants, the radars, command and control, crater runways, hit POL stores. OH! and make sure you JDAM those drone control trailers. And get tiktok to point their MW laser pointers at Chinese satellites. 

[BeondTheGrave]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Someone write this down: "March 26th 2022, Slightly cloudy, chance of rain.  Hapless kills all the contemporary theories of war."

Perhaps. If I understand @Hapless correctly though, doesn't this actually restore the traditional conception of operational/tactical success? EW becomes an asset that has to be wielded with precision and appropriate mass like with air power or ground power. BUT if you do so many of the same principles reassert themselves. 

UA C-EW punctures Russian EW. Strikes on command posts and EW assets widen the gap. Then fast-kill assets move in like wolves. On the other hand if Russia keeps its EW snowdome, to use Hap's language, it can move forward traditionally under an electronic safety blanket while the UA, by comparison, is vulnerable. 

One could draw another comparison to the '73 Egyptian AD network. After that war, a precondition for offensive operations became the ability to craft a plan to puncture the enemy net, use that puncture to wedge the 'door' open, then wield superiority (perhaps temporarily) in support of ground operations. No serious air force would now consider attacking another country without a plan for neutralizing the AD net as a precondition for the offensive. Even Russia had one for day one. It was bad, but thats another matter. 

In addition to SEAD->DEAD->EXPLOIT the lesson may be Win EW->Win ISR->EXPLOIT

Edited March 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, db_zero said:

 

As mentioned above there is a microchip issue. Car production was delayed and manufactures were shipped cars with old style instruments that didn’t require microchips due to the shortage.

 

 

War efforts always finds a way. Cars are not the best example as they are a profit driven, highest bidder wins acquisition process (yes yes I know I know military industrial complex is even worse yadda yadda) - but urgent national military priorities trump commercial priorities so chips end up being produced for military needs (missiles down the enemy's throat) instead of domestic wants.

Essentially, if the US needs to rapidly replenish it's ATGM stocks you can be to your bottom dollar they'll find the chips to do it. 

Russia, on the other hand...well, Russia's ****ed.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Ukr artillery hit Russian tanks column. On the video Russian tank approached to the railroad aside other disabled vehcicls, but close (or direct?) hit forced the driver turn on reverse.

Results of strike

[TheVulture]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

In addition to SEAD->DEAD->EXPLOIT the lesson may be Win EW->Win ISR->EXPLOIT

"Win EW" is also going to include winning control of various space domains too to destroy enemy satellites and (hopefully) attempt to defend your own from destruction - both for intelligence gathering and for communications.

Countries are also going to need to develop backup systems if their satellite comms get taken out - such as a network of high altitude drone access points that can talk to each other creating a damage-resistant web much like the internet.

[akd]

More Chechening in Mariupol:

 

[BlackMoria]

It will be interesting what the developing field of optical / adaptive camouflage brings to the party.  May not be effective against thermal systems but visual systems which is the dominate domain of most drone sensor systems and a fair amount of middle / low tech combat sighting systems.   Think the 'Predator' movie adaptive camouflage of the Predator.  That is in development and I recall seeing a video of a demonstration of a infantry man system that appeared to be quite effective.  Mind you, testing lab to the actual battlefield is the challenge.  And upscaling it for vehicles would likewise be quite the challenge.  I don't know how any adaptive/optical system would still work once said vehicle drove through a field of mud and is covered with it.   Still, stealth tech for everyone is the potential.  But I am not sure it will survive the wear and tear of the battlefield to be force multiplier or to cloak your army.  Still, development is ongoing for these systems.

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

but close (or direct?) hit

Looks like direct hit to turret cheek: