How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 3:54 PM, General Jack Ripper said:

5) Yes, Russia is still winning. Until they are actually forced to go BACKWARDS they will continue winning. Key word: BACKWARDS. I'll say it again: UNTIL THEY GO BACKWARDS.

General Jack Ripper,

You mean like this?

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/31632/Ukrainian_Defenders_Push_Back_Russian_troops_70_Km_from_Kyiv#.YjhDGC2ZNT4

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 21, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 4:04 PM, BletchleyGeek said:

Artillery, SAM and C2/signals vehicles and equipment I think. They are literally man portable mini cruise missiles (the 300 model, not sure about the 600 model).

I wonder about target acquisition: probably the Ukrainian army will be getting a live feed from US remote reconnaissaince and observation assets.

Looks like a dandy SO weapon.
 

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 4:44 PM, Fenris said:

 

When I thought about this later a question I had about the Russian SPA's taking counter battery fire... Is the armour on those things thick enough to withstand near misses from long tube artillery?

It seems rather risky to move that far forward, into the open and be under observation.

 

Fenris,

Not even close. The US Army got quite a shock when, after pooh-poohing the Russian artillery norms for attacking tanks as ridiculously low, live fire tests found they were right; that tanks were highly vulnerable to artillery fire, with one notable incident  being when a 155. mm shell (standing in for then Soviet 152 mm) drove a large splinter clear into the side of an M60 turret, with a substantial amount coming into the turret proper. We had quite the discussion of this, including articles from ARMOR magazine with some eye-popping pics, but here is a brief summary of what was learned. In a nutshell, direct hits tend to kill outright, and near misses can kill or cause severe damage. Also, a tank can appear almost unscathed but actually be almost useless from such things as perforated gun barrel, sensors destroyed, radio antennas torn off. M-Kills are easily created, too. 

https://forums.eugensystems.com/viewtopic.php?t=59283

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 7:18 PM, sross112 said:

I also made myself giggle on the way home today. I live in the middle of nowhere upper great plains. As I was driving home thinking of this topic and thread I was looking out over the pastures and prairies. I started to think about how many Ukrainians would be in the same position this summer driving along through agricultural areas. Then as they are looking over the fields and pastures they spot the farmer dragging a feed wagon out to the cattle with an 8 wheeled pickup that they cut down from a BTR with an acetylene torch.  Say what you want but the Ukraine is kinda like the Texas of Europe so you know they have some redneck engineers that are already thinking about this sort of thing! 

WhenI was a boy, we drove through Nebraska and saw cutdown US WW II halftracks being used on the sprawling grain farms. There's a guy in Australia who has deturreted Matilda IIs as farm tractors. The application you suggest is nowhere nearly as crazy as some might think.

Regards,

John Kettler

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Pretty sure any road in Ukraine can be checked out using Google maps.

The real issue for an invader is that Polissya region (of which Volyn is a part) is quite swampy - which again can be checked out using Google maps.

You can see how few roads there are and how much of the territory is a forested wetland.

My knowledge of  Ukraine / Belarus is very poor, but is that that the famous Pripyat marches (Pripet?). I was under the impression from Bagration etc. in WW2 that those those marshes covered a fair bit of the border between the two countries. Is that about right?

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 7:50 PM, akd said:

Some more Amazon drone deliveries:

 

 

akd,

Did some digging on these new to me munitions and learned they were purpose built  (fin assembly added) conversions of repurposed RKG-3 antitank hand grenades, the worst of which penetrates 165 mm of RHA and the best 220 mm. The latter carries ~0.6 kg of TNT/RDX. Don't know if the drones could carry the added weight, but the addition of a frag sleeve (like what the Germans made for their Stielhandgranate during WW II) would make the RKG-1600 even more potent.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Probus]

9 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

WhenI was a boy, we drove through Nebraska and saw cutdown US WW II halftracks being used on the sprawling grain farms. There's a guy in Australia who has deturreted Matilda IIs as farm tractors. The application you suggest is nowhere nearly as crazy as some might think.

Regards,

John Kettler

Dang John! Keeping us going in the wee hours of the morning (here in the states). 
 

Interesting take on the farmers. Prolly get more on eBay.UKR?

[John Kettler]

On 3/17/2022 at 9:42 PM, akd said:

Firefight in woods:

 

akd,

Way too exciting, but it somehow ended well for a soldier who, but for the bullet striking a few millimeters higher, could've been easily killed.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 5:29 AM, The Steppenwulf said:

General Roman Gavrilov, deputy chief of Russia's Rosgvardia Unit, has been arrested - reasons for his imprisonment unclear.

Head of the Russian Central Bank. Elvira Nabiullina has resigned after arguing with Putin over the devastation on Russian economy caused by sanctions.

Early evidence that Putin's 'Special Operation' failure is now transmuting into a domestic crisis?
 

The Steppenwulf,

Would think having the lieutenant colonel in charge of SOBR move against Kviv being captured and publicly admitting what SOBR was going to do and apologizing publicly afterwards had a lot to do with Gavrilov's being sacked.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 6:21 AM, Haiduk said:

Not so 100 AT wow, like BMP-1! I was shure Russia already doesn't have it in service, only LDPR forces, but... This is already second captured BMP-1 on Kyiv diredction. There is motor-rifle units of Far East Military district involved (or Syberian... I forgot), Probably they have some old equipment among conpanies. Also two Russian, not DLPR, T-72A were spotted. 

Haiduk,

The T-12 Rapira is almost certainly from Category C (lowest readiness and worst equipped) unit stocks. After all, it was the last real ATG the Red Army used. It's no crazier than 1930s BT-7s which sat out the war (in the Far East) being used in AUGUST STORM.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[BletchleyGeek]

52 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Is that about right?

Yes, pretty much that's the country like along the Ukraine-Belarus borders, from the Polish border to the Dnepr. The Russian western pincer on Kyiv trusted everything to a few roads (two or three). And then they got hit by the most massive military traffic jam in the last 80 years or so.

Edited March 21, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 6:58 AM, db_zero said:

I see YouTube videos that say latest version of the Stinger can shoot down small drones and you see Marines in practice shooting down small drones the size of a RC aircraft.

The tiny hand size drones may be a different story.

There are now drones that are the size and look of insects. Who knows what the military has or DARPA has developed that we don’t know about but ready to use if the need arises. 
 

This is from over 5 years ago:

 

Swarm bots, eh? Had no idea they could be deployed from a jet fighter and not be ripped apart.

SPOILER ALERT

SPOILER ALERT

Sunday's episode of NCIS Los Angeles offered a disturbing look at drone swarms and the implications of their ability to learn.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 7:01 AM, Haiduk said:

Footage from Russian Ka-52, damaged during assault of Hostomel airfield 24th Feb. On 1:29 pilot says "Guys, I'm hit, keep control, emergency landing"

 

 

Haiduk,

Is this the one we saw that was forced down, showed considerable external damage but landed fine on its wheels?

Regards,

John Kettler

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

More Amazon deliveries

 

 

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 8:12 AM, Haiduk said:

US intelligence - Putin can threaten the West with nuclear weapon if war drags 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-17/putin-is-likely-to-make-nuclear-threats-if-war-drags-u-s-says?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

Haiduk,

Publicly declared Russian strategic doctrine explicitly recognizes the use of a nuclear strike or strikes to correct a negative CoF and restore the status quo, a positive CoF. Nowhere in that doctrine does it say the strike/s has/have to employ strategic nuclear weaponry, either. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 8:49 AM, Haiduk said:

Good thread why Ukraine didn't destroy Russian 40-miles supply convoy in first days of invasion and why this turned out as strategical victory

 

 

Haiduk,

Simply tremendous thread and convincingly explains what had utterly baffled me!

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

On 3/18/2022 at 12:18 PM, Battlefront.com said:

This was posted by one of our testers to our internal discussion.  I thought it was a good idea to post it here as it illustrates one of Russia's traditional means of showing public support for something... pay people to show up.  We saw a ton of this in the 2014 "unrest" in Ukraine where people were bussed in from Russia to various locations.  Some where there simply because they got paid to.

Steve

 

Steve,

An old established practice going clear back to the Bolsheviks. The Mensheviks and other rivals complained bitterly the Bolsheviks were paying people in gold (sent in by Germany in the sealed train that brought in Lenin) to attend their rallies, giving them an unfair competitive advantage in spreading their message.

Regards,

John Kettler

[DesertFox]

Are they already pulling the "hot stuff" from the depots? What´s next?

 

 

[Baneman]

Another of Putin/Russia's strategic goals met.
( I'm assuming that the plan was to stop selling oil and gas to Europe ... right ?   )

"BREAKING: Germany agrees to a long-term gas supply deal with Qatar"

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1505630820056563712?s=20&t=2m5ed8y8ZNiyc4wy_6AwdA

Edited March 21, 2022 by Baneman

[c3k]

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

    First off the Russian military has an enormous defensive problem, entirely of their own making.  By my rough measurements, by attacking along 4-5 separate operational axis of advance in an attempt to take the whole eastern part of the country, they now have a frontage of roughly 1400km+ to try and "defend".  That is roughly three times as long as the entire Western Front in WW1.  To make any areas they control even close to airtight, they are going to need hundreds of thousands of troops to do it.  Troops I am not sure they have, nor can equip, let alone conduct C2 for at this point.  If Russia is serious about Grab, Hold Bargain, they may have to simply wholesale abandon some axis and gains likely in the East in order to be able to create credible defensives and pressures.  We do know the UA has troops all along those 1300km frontage, they are either regular, hybrid, or resistance/territorial defence.  They know the ground intimately and are continuing to see a steady flow of weapons in from the west.  How the UA counter-offensive goes will be key to determining the actual situation of Russian forces.

 

 

 

^^^

That is the crucial part of your cogent analysis.  The pure length of the front the Russians have created is insane. They will, no doubt, try to smooth out the lines and reduce the linear distance...but that only changes the scale of the problem, not the problem itself.

[Bulletpoint]

Russia is achieving WW2-levels of accuracy in Ukraine.

Or maybe they have declared war on the earthworms now that the chickens were too much to handle.

In any case, this is apaprently a UKR position northeast of Kyiv - if you squint, you can see the trenches on either side of the road.

I haven't counted the number of craters in the fields.

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

  

Winter war was totally comparable to current UKR situation. Only difference is 80 or so years.

Soviets going for an unjustified attack with extremely low morale, unrealistic politically motivated operational plan, insufficient force and getting bogged down because of many factors like in Ukraine.

There are a lot of differences this time around that make me doubt Russia's ability to defend in place:

• As mentioned, there's nobody waiting to shoot them if they retreat or attempt to surrender (at least not yet!)
• Russia as a nation state viewed Finland as part of it, however there wasn't nearly 100 years of mass population swapping as with Ukraine.  This divides public opinion, and therefore the soldier's motivations, for being in Ukraine in the first place.  1930s Russians had no such concept
• Russians today are not as ignorant ad the Russians of the 1930s.  They are vastly more aware of their overall situation and even how badly the war is going for them.  They are also far more aware of the alternatives if they surrender or retreat.
• Finland didn't have the sort of ability to kill defending Russians in the way the Ukrainians can today.

There's likely others that are critical, but I think these are enough to make a difference.  A big difference.

The Ukrainians have an opportunity to do sorta "shock and awe" counter attacks that take a demoralized, questioning group of Russian soldiers and convince them that they have a choice between surrendering/retreating or dying in place.  Once Ukraine gets that sort of snowball rolling down hill, it will gain momentum.  Each attack will be easier than the last because the Russian defenders will have even less reason to defend than they did before. 

In fact, what is likely is that the defenders will talk amongst themselves and case out what they will do if/when a Ukrainian attack comes.  This is VERY DANGEROUS for the Russians because it could get to the point where soldiers that wish to continue fighting are preemptively "sorted out" by the majority that do not favor fighting.  If a higher up command learns of this, then there's the possibility of internal fighting or the "rot spreading".  And the more force that the higher ups use to keep the lower units fighting, the more chance it will backfire into an outright mutiny.

This is not novel theories of mine.  It's basic psychology of stress and sorting out self interests.  There's plenty of historical examples of this happening.

Steve

[DesertFox]

 

 

[cyrano01]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are a lot of differences this time around that make me doubt Russia's ability to defend in place:

• As mentioned, there's nobody waiting to shoot them if they retreat or attempt to surrender (at least not yet!)
• Russia as a nation state viewed Finland as part of it, however there wasn't nearly 100 years of mass population swapping as with Ukraine.  This divides public opinion, and therefore the soldier's motivations, for being in Ukraine in the first place.  1930s Russians had no such concept
• Russians today are not as ignorant ad the Russians of the 1930s.  They are vastly more aware of their overall situation and even how badly the war is going for them.  They are also far more aware of the alternatives if they surrender or retreat.
• Finland didn't have the sort of ability to kill defending Russians in the way the Ukrainians can today.

There's likely others that are critical, but I think these are enough to make a difference.  A big difference.

 

Also, this time out, there are plenty of anti-Russian neutrals happy to supply arms and equipment to Ukraine whereas potential supporters of Finland had other things going on in 1939-40, global demand for weaponry being rather high at the time!