dan/california Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 https://belarusdigest.com/story/how-many-divisions-does-lukashenka-have/ supporting info on Belarus. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://belarusdigest.com/story/how-many-divisions-does-lukashenka-have/ supporting info on Belarus. huh this article is dated march 6th..? Belarus Major General Resigns Instead Of Following Putin Orders (bipartisanreport.com) Edited March 21, 2022 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, sburke said: huh this article is dated march 6th..? Belarus Major General Resigns Instead Of Following Putin Orders (bipartisanreport.com) Putin has been trying to drag Belarus the rest of the way in since the beginning. Belarus military does NOT want to come out and play. Still crossing my fingers they will revolt instead. Which would wreck the Russian logistics around Kyiv, utterly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, dan/california said: Putin has been trying to drag Belarus the rest of the way in since the beginning. Belarus military does NOT want to come out and play. Still crossing my fingers they will revolt instead. Which would wreck the Russian logistics around Kyiv, utterly. yeah I just saw that headline from your post and damn near had an orgasm. Visions of Belarus falling apart and the Russian army being cutoff. You spoiled my wet dream... I'd say you owe me but .. well.. let's just not go there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 From NASA FIRMS via @OSINTtechnical: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1505766517249646594?s=20&t=F7q4CLsxqFhbza96Y8W0Fw Quite a few fires centered in the Bucha-Irpin area, and also east of Brovary. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 40 minutes ago, dan/california said: The "a couple thoughts" that Mr. Schlottman was offering are worth reading re: that map. I must say the map doesn't make a lot of sense from taking a look with Google Maps at how major roads are laid out. Not sure what's the weather been in the area, but the majority of routes crossing the border from the region south of Brest into Ukraine are unimproved dirt roads. Those will be good for the first couple tank/ifv platoons that roll down them, and a pigsty afterwards. There are only two all weather roads, one running parallel 3-4 kms from the Polish border, and another farther in, where the first big town/strong point is Kovel. I guess that's why there are two fat arrows on that map. Also, the only activity I can find of the Ukrainian-Polish-Lithuanian brigade dates back to 2016. Edited March 21, 2022 by BletchleyGeek 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THH149 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 29 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said: the majority of routes crossing the border from the region south of Brest into Ukraine are unimproved dirt roads. My sense: Its disinformation designed to keep Ukr forces shielding Lviv as the Beloruss is having a hard time prepping a BTG so the Ukr strip some northern forces and send them east. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: There is no way dug in Russians will put up the sort of fight that proved so costly to attacking US forces in both WW2 Pacific or Vietnam. Those situations required massive amounts of firepower to keep friendly casualties low. I don't see the Ukrainians having to do more than spray a bunch of small arms fire to get a positive result. But not just yet. I don't think we've arrived at this point. Close, but not quite there yet. Steve I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 I don't know anything about the Winter War but Commissars were part of the Soviet organisation and at different times throughout WWII the guys obviously made retreating difficult to the point that it could have seemed suicidal to the average soldier. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much. One very large difference is that the Ukrainians are bending over backwards to treat POWs well. WW2 eastern front the two best scenarios were fighting to the death, or being shot immediately, not joking. I think a few HUNDRED of the tens of thousands of Germans that surrendered at Stalingrad lived to return to Germany. The Germans were just as bad. The Ukrainians are trying encourage surrenders, so you get a cup of tea and a chance to call mom, might be the best deal in human history all things considered. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, dan/california said: One very large difference is that the Ukrainians are bending over backwards to treat POWs well. WW2 eastern front the two best scenarios were fighting to the death, or being shot immediately, not joking. I think a few HUNDRED of the tens of thousands of Germans that surrendered at Stalingrad lived to return to Germany. The Germans were just as bad. The Ukrainians are trying encourage surrenders, so you get a cup of tea and a chance to call mom, might be the best deal in human history all things considered. Finns treated Russian PoW's with modern western standards. (of course Russians didn't learn this until getting captured) Winter war was in 1939 before "eastern front". And the Finnish treatment of PoW continued through the continuation War to 1944. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Michael Kofman and Andrew Monaghan 6h ago. recording 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BletchleyGeek Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much. Unless extreme conditioning is in play - e.g. Imperial Japanese Army kind of conditioning - very few military forces ever fights to the last man and bullet when they are aware their LOC is cut. And usually out of necessity - like at Isandhlwana where the British didn't have many options - rather than conviction. I think Steve's master plan needs to play the tactical psychology card. That is 1) make an example that resistance is futile (everyone dies and little to no damage is done to the enemy), and 2) present an off ramp for enemy soldiers to flee or give up. The point is not to kill heaps of them, but to have them stop fighting. The Russian approach in Mariupol seems to take the exact opposite approach. Edited March 21, 2022 by BletchleyGeek 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Something from the economic „front“. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 And nice wording there from UK. Russia is in denial mode and still thinking that encircling Kyiv is an option for them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 1:58 PM, keas66 said: New Vehicle Signs appearing in field ? keas66, Ref the signs, suspect these may reflect a subset of the Belarus grouping, but what caught my attention is the armament atop the Tigr's roof. Isn't that the Arbalet exclusively on Russian SO vehicles? The only pic of one I've ever seen was on a badly damaged Tigr, badly damaged in the vehicle proper and the weapon mount. Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarjen Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Landing Ship is unloaded at port facilities. So no landing at Odesa? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 3 hours ago, THH149 said: My sense: Its disinformation designed to keep Ukr forces shielding Lviv as the Beloruss is having a hard time prepping a BTG so the Ukr strip some northern forces and send them east. Pretty sure any road in Ukraine can be checked out using Google maps. The real issue for an invader is that Polissya region (of which Volyn is a part) is quite swampy - which again can be checked out using Google maps. You can see how few roads there are and how much of the territory is a forested wetland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:15 PM, MikeyD said: Does anyone else find it odd the deputy of the regimental commander was flying active combat missions? I don't. If you look at the US Air Force, for example, Robin Olds, during his time as a pilot and CO in Vietnam was a full colonel in command of 8th Tactical Fighter Wing, during which he got the four MiG kills that made him a triple ace (16 kills total, 12 in WW II and 4 in Vietnam). Real leaders lead--in combat. Olds got the 8th TFW CO slot because his predecessor had flown a whole 12 missions in his entire time in command and was not a good leader at all. If memory serves, a fighter wing at the time was 72 planes, in three squadrons of 24 aircraft.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Olds By starkest of contrasts, the impressive sounding RuAF aviation regiment has a total strength of only 24 planes, a USAF squadron equivalent. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43603/face-off-over-donbas-how-russian-and-ukrainian-air-forces-stack-up Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 On 3/17/2022 at 2:37 PM, akd said: TOS being super sneaky: akd, They don't wish to star in the next Bayraktar TB2 successful strike video! Regards, John Kettler 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much. This isn't WW2 and Russia isn't USSR. Defending your own homeland and defending something you aggressively stole from others is two vastly different things. Soviet army had a lot of Belarusians and Ukrainians fighting for it. In fact Ukrainians suffered the heaviest casualties during WW2, which should explain a lot of things. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 General Jack Ripper, Believe this statement is a reach. The Russian Navy has free access to the Black Sea, which means they can conduct fire support and amphibious operations anywhere they want to at any time. Ukraine has shown exactly zero capability to effect this outcome, although something makes me think there are still existing defenses in some areas., because the Russian has not operated as aggressively as I would think he could. From what I've seen the UA has put up enough of a fight that it has caused at least one planned assault landing to be aborted. Wasn't there some sort of mutiny at the POE (Port Of Embarkation)? Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anders_1970 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said: I don't know. If we look at history in the winter war Soviet troops were extremely hard to dislodge when they got to some place and dug in. The morale was extremely low for the soviets but this didn't effect the defensive performance that much. Difference is they were on home turf in 1941 defending their motherland. The opposite is true today where the Russians are the aggressors fighting in a hostile environment. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, kraze said: This isn't WW2 and Russia isn't USSR. Defending your own homeland and defending something you aggressively stole from others is two vastly different things. Soviet army had a lot of Belarusians and Ukrainians fighting for it. In fact Ukrainians suffered the heaviest casualties during WW2, which should explain a lot of things. 1 minute ago, Anders_1970 said: Difference is they were on home turf in 1941 defending their motherland. The opposite is true today where the Russians are the aggressors fighting in a hostile environment. Winter war was totally comparable to current UKR situation. Only difference is 80 or so years. Soviets going for an unjustified attack with extremely low morale, unrealistic politically motivated operational plan, insufficient force and getting bogged down because of many factors like in Ukraine. Edited March 21, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Kettler Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 In case it got missed (have lots of catching up to do) wanted to point out there's apparently been a reassessment of the reported sinking by Grad fire of the modern corvette (5 years old) that was the pride of the Black Sea Fleet. The evidence this didn't happen is pretty persuasive.https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44797/the-case-of-russias-apparently-back-from-the-dead-black-sea-warship Regards, John Kettler 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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