How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, keas66 said:

One of things listed in the latest shopping list was 1000 remote drone systems  . There was some suggestion these would be the  portable kamikaze  systems  for taking out light vehicles .  1000 does not seem like enough  !

Here's the list of what's included in the $800m aid package announcement by Biden today:

• 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
• 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles
• 1,000 light anti-armor weapons
• 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor weapons
• 100 drones, reportedly Switchblade “kamikazes”
• 100 grenade launchers
• 5,000 rifles
• 1,000 pistols
• 400 machine guns
• 400 shotguns
• More than 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition, as well as grenade launcher and mortar rounds
• 25,000 sets of body armor
• 25,000 helmets

Steve

[LukeFF]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Abandoned T-90A with... hm...

 

I see a business opportunity for furniture makers here.

[Fenris]

double post

Edited March 16, 2022 by Fenris

[Fenris]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

Havocs doing the flying MLRS thing:

 

The term in-discriminant fire comes to mind.  They won't hit anything smaller than a city block like that.  Maybe they want to report mission success but don't want to get too close.

[akd]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

100 drones, reportedly Switchblade “kamikazes”

That’s not going to cut it.

[Panserjeger]

Things are happening in Belarussia apparently:

 

[akd]

2 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

Things are happening in Belarussia apparently:

 

He is an exiled opposition member.

[TheVulture]

 

 

[Fenris]

Yeah I saw this scanning the feeds just now, mostly speculation, was waiting to hear more

 

[Panserjeger]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

He is an exiled opposition member.

Ahh, thank you @akd, easy to get carried away by the Twitter storms

Edited March 16, 2022 by Panserjeger

[keas66]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

That’s not going to cut it.

Yeah I thought even 1000 was too little . Maybe these 100 Systems are something a little more durable than switchblades ... I guess time will tell .

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I disagree, squared.

If you're going to attack a bunch of scared men with guns, in a civilian street, you better 1) finish the job, 2)not get yet more of your people killed.

He did finish the job, it's just not the job you had in mind.  I don't think you're in a position to judge the circumstances or his rationale for doing what he did and how he did it.  For all you know buddies did the same thing in 3 other points along that route.  Or maybe he had 5 guys with him at the last ambush and he's the only one left to carry out the fight?  There's a lot we don't know, so I don't think it is appropriate to judge this against some sort of theoretical action from someone who isn't there.

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

If the aim was sap morale, that's a pretty wasteful, unprofessional and teenage-level opportunistic way of doing it.

I disagree.  I see this as being quite skilled.  He drove until he established enough distance ahead of the intended target.  He pulled off the road, fully, and positioned the car for an easy get away without risking getting shot at.  The guys in the truck likely had absolutely no idea who hit them, especially because the guys who would have eyes on his car are likely dead. 

After parking he got out and successfully timed his attack, something that isn't as easy to do as you might think.  Instead of targeting the rear of the truck he targeted the front, which ensure one less truck in the Russian inventory instead of a functional truck with a hole in the cargo area.  And he probably injured several in back, perhaps killed.

And yes, it was opportunistic.  That's a positive, not a negative.

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Why go on your own/w 1 mate? That's dangerous and dumb. Why let the truck get that far after hit and not hit it again?

Maybe he only had one rocket?  And I don't think hitting and running is "dumb".  In fact, there is a stronger argument to make that sticking around and potentially being engaged by others is "dumb".

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Dangerous and dumb. Why use only the AT4 (?) and no follow on my fire/AGS? Dangerous and dumb. The only reason he's alive is because those troops are such low quality and had no escort.

No, he's alive because he was smart enough to pick an isolated target and to not linger around long enough for the situation to become unfavorable for his survival.

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

He runs away, great. Now, the Ivan's could easily turn psycho and attack the surrounding civilian houses. Easily. Allowing that is very selfish and again, dumb.

Right, so you're saying that if he killed all those guys in that truck that the next truck that came along wouldn't start killing civilians all over the place?  Sorry, that's really illogical thinking.  ANY partisan attack runs this sort of risk.  So unless you think it's possible for a partisan attack to kill 100% of all Russians in Ukraine at one time, then by your logic any partisan attack is "dumb" and "selfish".

8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Which is fine, but still - work smart, not hard. Dumb is hard.

In my opinion, which includes having studied partisan warfare in detail, I think this was a "smart" attack.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Panserjeger said:

Things are happening in Belarussia apparently:

 

 

This is the other reason Zelensky should keep playing for time with the negotiations.  If Belarus collapses, well... that would significantly improve his leverage to put it mildly

 

One of the first things that would happen if Belarus fell into chaos is all activities aimed at Kiev would stop immediately.  The Russian forces there would be effectively cut off and that would give them the option of trying to escape (which might not be possible) or forced to surrender before getting slaughtered.

 

I have a feeling that if Belarus goes belly up the Russian soldiers there and in Ukraine aren't going to have an easy time getting out.  I wouldn't rule out an open fight between Belorussian and Russian forces, though I don't view it as highly likely.  Could be they let the Russians bugger out like the Finns (largely) did for the Germans in 1944.  Or it could be that there's more going on to cause them to fight than we know about.

 

Whatever the case is, Belarus doing anything other than sitting back and letting Russia do its thing is going to have a strategic impact on Russia's ability to wage war.  Ukraine needs to give this time to play out.

 

Steve

[riptides]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sorry, coming a bit late to the discussion.

It seems that Russia's negotiations are finally showing evidence they know they've lost the war.  But obviously Putin is still looking to have something to show for this fiasco.  I think Ukraine can definitely get better terms very soon if they keep fighting.

If I were in Zelensky's shoes I would keep the war going if my military commanders were confident of victory.  Russia stole two big chunks of territory and killed at least 14,000 Ukrainians the last time and Putin still came back for more.  This won't end until Russia is in turmoil so badly that it questions ever fighting Ukraine ever again.  It should already be clear, but I think Ukraine needs to press home that point more than it already has.

In any case, for sure The_Capt's point a few pages ago that Zelensky has to weigh a lot of very tough decisions.  In particular the amount of suffering of citizens and infrastructure.  This is the primary reason Ukraine agreed to Minsk 1 and 2, and for the most part Ukraine got what it wanted out of it short term.  But long term... it got this war.

Let's keep in mind that what's being discussed between Russia and Ukraine is a cease fire, as far as I can tell, and not a peace deal.  The two are not necessarily the same thing.

Steve

Zelensky and the Ukrainian people are fighting for their children's future. I think they know the sacrifices they are making now set the tone for generations. 

[db_zero]

Seeing report that Russians are slowing inching way forward towards Kyiv with fighting concentrated around a couple of regions on the outskirts.

It been suggested that Russia wants to get closer to get their self propelled 152mm artillery in range of city center so they can reduce the city in a week or 2. 

[Vet 0369]

16 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

 

 

It’s obvious isn’t it? Ukraine has attacked Belarus. Now Belarus must fight back in Ukraine. Sarcasm!!

 It’s either a false flag or the military in Belarus has become fed up with the “Pretender.”

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, db_zero said:

Seeing report that Russians are slowing inching way forward towards Kyiv with fighting concentrated around a couple of regions on the outskirts.

It been suggested that Russia wants to get closer to get their self propelled 152mm artillery in range of city center so they can reduce the city in a week or 2. 

That might be their plan, but wow... what a bad plan.  They NEVER had a chance of taking Kiev in any real sense.  Now?  Even though it is not technically possible to have a less than never chance, I think the Russians are going to prove that wrong!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another late breaking follow up to the Belarus reports:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/few-facts-much-speculation-as-explosions-heard-in-belarus/

There might be two separate things going on simultaneously.

Who here has read the original Starship Troopers (i.e. not the movie book)?  Remember what the Humans did to the Skinnies?

Steve

[riptides]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Actually, saying so strongly that no NATO country is going to put forces into NATO has been quite helpful IMHO.  Took a lot of possible wind out of Putin's propaganda sails.  Imagine his people having video of a White House Briefing where someone was asked "will we deploy our troops into Ukraine now that Russia has attacked?"  Any answer other than "No, that's not going to happen" would be spun into "yes, we're going to do exactly that".

It also is needed to reassure the domestic population that we're not going to actively tempt WW3.  That allows the domestic Western population to instead focus on REAL help to Ukraine instead of worrying about it spiraling out of control.

I also think Putin went into this war assuming NATO would not put forces into Ukraine.  It is the logical thing for him to conclude with good reason.

Don't bluff if you're not willing to be called on it.  That's the lesson here.

Steve

Very astute.

[rocketman]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

I might be mistaken here, but don’t winds in Ukraine mostly blow from west/north west to east/south east as they do in most of the northern hemisphere? If Russia nuked Ukraine, where would most of the initial fallout be deposited? Not north in Poland, or anywhere east, unless they chose that specific wind direction.

The opposite winds was present when Chernobyl blew its lid. Sweden was one of the first countries sounding the alarm that something bad had happened.

[akd]

“Explosions” may be jets going transonic.

[db_zero]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That might be their plan, but wow... what a bad plan.  They NEVER had a chance of taking Kiev in any real sense.  Now?  Even though it is not technically possible to have a less than never chance, I think the Russians are going to prove that wrong!

Steve

Judging from what I’ve seen Russia stand no chance, but I’m also seeing reports that the fog of war, western medias cutoff of Russian media and dominance of social media is giving a skewed picture of the war and people are scared to post any evidence of Russian successes because they will be labeled as pro-Russia, even if they are trying to be objective.

One report even suggested that in the South the Russians did have some success and captured a large amount of Javelin’s that will be used against Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, akd said:

“Explosions” may be jets going transonic.

As someone who used to be in the flight path of the Concord before the FAA told them to "keep that boom stuff for the ocean!", could very well be.  However, if that's the case then we should see some more impacts in Ukraine within the same timeframe as I doubt the Russians would be flying around like that without attacking something.  And I'll include "doing some sonic booms over potentially mutinous Belorussian army units in order to scare them" as part of that definition.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Who here has read the original Starship Troopers (i.e. not the movie book)?  Remember what the Humans did to the Skinnies?

I have. As far as I remember, the humans launched a tactical nuke at the Skinnies' water supply so it would be irradiated for 10,000 years. Hopefully that's not what's going on in Belarus, but I think you might be remembering some other incident of the book? It's a long time since I read it.

Edited March 16, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Judging from what I’ve seen Russia stand no chance, but I’m also seeing reports that the fog of war, western medias cutoff of Russian media and dominance of social media is giving a skewed picture of the war and people are scared to post any evidence of Russian successes because they will be labeled as pro-Russia, even if they are trying to be objective.

I have no doubt that Ukraine is taking losses.  But for 2+ weeks now the Russians have definitely not cleared out the area around Kiev by a long shot.  The thought of them storming a city of Kiev's size without doing that, not to mention their crap resupply history, is not going to work.

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

One report even suggested that in the South the Russians did have some success and captured a large amount of Javelin’s that will be used against Ukraine.

I don't doubt they've captured quite a bit of war booty.  But what good does that do Russia?  Even 100 Javelins doesn't begin to compensate for all the stuff they've lost in the past couple of weeks.

The evidence of systemic Russian failure is plain enough to see and we know Ukraine has tens of thousands of fighters yet to be introduced into war.  Not seeing Ukraine's losses doesn't change the basic equation.

Steve