How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

37 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, the de-nazification of Germany could only happen because 1) Germany was utterly defeated all the way to Berlin, and 2) Germany was occupied by troops that literally could force locals out to take a look at the camps.

Neither of these things are set to happen in the current war.

I'm worried that this war might end more like WW1.. an economically devastated and empoverished nation free to brew up new "stab in the back" legends and elect even worse leaders than before.

I second this. The aftermath of a possible Putins loss could be a russian weimar republic. Possibly they will emerge opposite forces in Russia, like the communists vs nazis in the 20s and what if a more radical leader takes over in Kremlin? Germanys hatred towards the world was mainly built from isolation, national humliation, and ultimately poverty, and I'm already seeing Russia taking that route. That's why West must be careful how to handle a defeated Russia. Since you can't kill it and you can't cage a wild animal forever, you have to somehow pet it. But maybe things will be more straightforward, although the first attempt in 1990s after the collapse of Soviet union didn't go very well judging from today's unprecedented crisis. 

[keas66]

5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I second this. The aftermath of a possible Putins loss could be a russian weimar republic. Possibly they will emerge opposite forces in Russia, like the communists vs nazis in the 20s and what if a more radical leader takes over in Kremlin? Germanys hatred towards the world was mainly built from isolation, national humliation, and ultimately poverty, and I'm already seeing Russia taking that route. That's why West must be careful how to handle a defeated Russia. Since you can't kill it and you can't cage a wild animal forever, you have to somehow pet it. But maybe things will be more straightforward, although the first attempt in 1990s after the collapse of Soviet union didn't go very well judging from today's unprecedented crisis. 

Let the Chinese own them

[Blazing 88's]

3 hours ago, Probus said:

How does anyone survive that, let alone run aftwards!

If you check the later post that is from youtube (a couple of posts down). The last frame before the vid stops you see what sure looks to be a singed figure come out of the smoke plume. Crazy to have "survived" if so.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Blazing 88's

[keas66]

Elements of the  1st ABCT arriving in Mannheim  ?

 

[BletchleyGeek]

26 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I hope our Neptuns survived 24th Feb.

Given the prudence of the Russian Black Sea fleet seems that the naval command in Sevastopol (?) isn't sure of their destruction either.

I had assumed wrongly that all UKR had was refurbished Soviet era cruise missiles.

Very little data on those missile systems - naturally - but if Indonesia wanted to buy some they must be quite good value for money.

[Kinophile]

33 minutes ago, womble said:

No, not really. Plausible, that is. Which is, inherently the single most unreal root of Russia's "fear" of NATO. Doesn't matter what NATO's intentions are, or might become, the capacity simply doesn't exist to prosecute an offensive war to the heart of Russia, even from the Federation borders as they currently are. And that's without the prospect of a Russia facing an existential threat bringing out the Nukes, be they battlefield or city-buster.

 

As mentioned before, anyone crosses the RUS border, gets nuked. No question. And especially if the RUS army is shelled out from a previous war.

[Cogust]

I saw this unconfirmed footage of  Russian column retreating from Kherson toward Crimea, a wargamer friend of mine living in Kherson confirmed that there has been a lot of vehicles moving East along the highway as well as distant explosions near the highway. The first units pulling out according to him was a rocket artillery unit. 

He also heard the Ukraininan attack on the airport, so things seems to be moving here.
 

, 

[Ts4EVER]

Isn't that the one city they actually took? Big if true.

[Homo_Ferricus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Mariupol. Russian tank shot with main gun at civilian, which stood and didn't move to show he is unarmed...

 

 

Tanks barrel isn't pointed in quite the right direction, and it does not appear to fire at the moment of explosion. Could be another tank, could be a mortar, could be an ATGM missing the tank? Very hard to say.

[Cogust]

Yes, Kherson is the biggest city the Russians managed to capture. But I guess they decided that they don't have enough resources to hold it any more.

I have seen several reports indicating that the Russians have pulled back from Mykolaiv, but this indicates that they are pulling back over the Dnieper as well.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Cogust

[TheVulture]

Kherson is the only district capitol they've taken (not sure what the Ukrainian's call those cities), and for bonus points is their main bridgehead across the Dneipr. Recapturing Kherson would be a big win for Ukraine.  Although I can't imagine the Russians would abandon it easily unless they are really in the crap: it will cost them dear if they ever try to force their way back to the west of the Dneipr if they give it up now. 

[Ts4EVER]

Maybe they have decided it is finally free of Nazis...

[Vet 0369]

48 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Great snippets, all of them very interesting @Haiduk.

The perceived redeployment in the south perhaps is best understood in the context of the apparent move of the Black Sea Fleet to menace Odessa. Whether is that just a feint to keep UKR forces pinned down to Odessa, or the long awaited amphibious operation, I guess we will see. If UKR had anything like Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles I don't think we would get to see that naval ballet.

It could be a simple matter of Russia realizing they have lost, and are redeploying their troops to the originally controlled areas of the Crimean peninsula, DNR, and LNR to be under the protective guns and missiles of Russia and the Russian Navy in preparation of a cease-fire agreement. I wouldn’t be surprised to see other fronts doing the same.

[Cogust]

It could also be some kind of pre-condition for further peace talks, who knows.

Edited March 15, 2022 by Cogust

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, keas66 said:

Elements of the  1st ABCT arriving in Mannheim  ?

I have my doubts that the vid is legit.

US troops left Mannheim and Heidelberg area in 2011 and the M1 on the train look a lot like the 105mm version to me.

[edit] Addendum: After looking deeper into this I need to correct myself. Apparently 1st ABCT is in the process of being activated and material which was stored in Coleman worksite (which had been reactivated 2015), Mannheim is being shipped to Grafenwoehr Training ground. So those M1s in the vid could very well be M1A2s with 120mm Smoothbore. Vid is too unsharp to really see that.

Bundeswehr tests new heavy equipment transporters, helps deliver Army Preposition Stocks-2 | Article | The United States Army

US Army lädt zum Besuch auf Coleman ein | Mannheim.de

Edited March 15, 2022 by DesertFox

[Maquisard manqué]

Interesting that people finaly got out of Mariupol too.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60746557?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6230ed9a980bea49f4b7caec%26Almost 30%2C000 evacuated from cities today - Ukrainian official%262022-03-15T20%3A14%3A11.224Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:85cf1cd6-92f9-4d12-91ca-cd72d7a05e33&pinned_post_asset_id=6230ed9a980bea49f4b7caec&pinned_post_type=share

[Vet 0369]

43 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I second this. The aftermath of a possible Putins loss could be a russian weimar republic. Possibly they will emerge opposite forces in Russia, like the communists vs nazis in the 20s and what if a more radical leader takes over in Kremlin? Germanys hatred towards the world was mainly built from isolation, national humliation, and ultimately poverty, and I'm already seeing Russia taking that route. That's why West must be careful how to handle a defeated Russia. Since you can't kill it and you can't cage a wild animal forever, you have to somehow pet it. But maybe things will be more straightforward, although the first attempt in 1990s after the collapse of Soviet union didn't go very well judging from today's unprecedented crisis. 

This is exactly why I would argue against massive reparations against Russia for starting this. After WWI,even though U.S. President Wilson argued against them, the UK and France insisted on them to “punish” Germany and make sure they wouldn’t have a viable military again. Well, we all know how that worked out. “Vengeance is Mine say that the lord,” meaning we have no place exacting it.

[keas66]

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

This is exactly why I would argue against massive reparations against Russia for starting this. After WWI,even though U.S. President Wilson argued against them, the UK and France insisted on them to “punish” Germany and make sure they wouldn’t have a viable military again. Well, we all know how that worked out. “Vengeance is Mine say that the lord,” meaning we have no place exacting it.

A different Era maybe ?   The Allies dropped the ball completely after WW1 and nobody wanted anything to do with any more wars . Armies were cut back , defenses weakened meanwhile the Axis  rearmed .  Maybe a better lesson to take from this is punish them hard and then keep your boot on their throat rather than taking it off .

[Kraft]

There seems to have been quite an uptick in frontline activity today, atleast I am seeing lots more equipment / personnel losses being posted than usual over the last days.

Below is the first "properly equipped" weapon on Rus combat troops I've seen.

I wonder if the Invader parted with it willingly 

Edited March 15, 2022 by Kraft

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

What strike, when and with what? Whatever it was, looks like some real damage was done. Appears to be multiple POL type fires.

Likely MLRS or atillery. Today. 

[Haiduk]

EW asset Leer-3 (GSM SIGINT/jamming) captured in Mykolaiv oblast

 

[Vet 0369]

4 minutes ago, keas66 said:

A different Era maybe ?   The Allies dropped the ball completely after WW1 and nobody wanted anything to do with any more wars . Armies were cut back , defenses weakened meanwhile the Axis  rearmed .  Maybe a better lesson to take from this is punish them hard and then keep your boot on their throat rather than taking it off .

And this is a prime example of “if we fail to learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.” We learned a lesson from the WWI vengeance reparations, and not only didn’t impose massive reparations on Germany after WWII, as far as I know, but we implemented the “Marshal Plan” to help rebuild BOTH Germany and Japan. Seems to me that those policies had MUCH better results than “vengeance based reparations.” Vengeance is also what has continued the millennium long blood feuds that still exist in many countries.

[Haiduk]

One more burned BTR-82A

[keas66]

14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

And this is a prime example of “if we fail to learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it.” We learned a lesson from the WWI vengeance reparations, and not only didn’t impose massive reparations on Germany after WWII, as far as I know, but we implemented the “Marshal Plan” to help rebuild BOTH Germany and Japan. Seems to me that those policies had MUCH better results than “vengeance based reparations.” Vengeance is also what has continued the millennium long blood feuds that still exist in many countries.

Do you think we will ever be in a position to remake Russia as we were with Germany  or Japan  ?  I don't . I think Putin is going to be festering  on the Edge of NATO until someone removes him ... and likely his replacement's  will carry on in the same way .

Maybe we should offer up our Treasuries to Putin after this Special Operation comes to an end  . Lift the sanctions and let the Russians back into our Financial/ trading systems again ... because the  punishment  should never fit the crime right ?

Edited March 15, 2022 by keas66

[db_zero]

Like many dictators who turned out to be less than brilliant military leaders, Putin could demonstrate the ability to stay in power.

Even if he is replaced who’s to say they won’t be a more capable administrator with the ability to actually be effective at reforming the Russian military and rooting out corruption.

This is a disaster for the Russians and the junior leaders experiencing the current disaster will eventually be the mid and senior level leaders.

The Israelis manhandled the Arab armies in 67 but saw a much different force in 73.

The junior US leaders in the Vietnam War were the ones who vowed never again and built the war machine that crushed Iraq in 1991.

Remains to be seen how Russia handles this latest clusterf***

What I would not want to see is Russia and China joint up and reforming their militaries and start emulating Western concepts like the NTC and Redflag. There are some cultural and other factors that might inhibit this but not completely out of the realm.

Edited March 15, 2022 by db_zero