dan/california Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 "Russian and Ukrainian forces are now pitted in fierce street fighting in the suburban towns around the capital. Russian forces greatly outnumber the Ukrainian Army, but the Ukrainians have been ambushing them with Javelin anti-tank missiles supplied by NATO and the United States." Above is from the New York Times, which I usually like, usually. The mainstream press simply has not been able to absorb the math on the manpower situation. Assuming if you are reading this you have already read Steves excellent analysis. The media/press/conventional wisdom blob just has this wrong, and no amount of proof seems to be getting through. So they will be surprised all over again. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Vic4 said: Given the extreme material losses that the Russians are sustaining, do we know if the Russian military industry is fully mobilized (i.e. cranking out T-14’s, BMP-3’s and training personnel etc. as fast as possible)? Do they have the material resources to keep producing sophisticated equipment or were they stockpiled previously in anticipation of the sanctions? How long can/will Russia sustain a conventional conflict with significant losses until only the “rabid animal in a cage with nukes” option is all that is left…? T-14s aint gonna save Putin's ass. They're supposedly entering serial production this year. And they're not gonna be rushing it off the conveyor belts into battle - these are complex, pretty cutting edge vehicles. The T14 is no T34. Missiles could be mass produced relatively quickly but therein lies the rub - relatively. If UKR can weather the coming Russian re-offensive's initial stage, where I suspect they'll go bananas with every damn stand-off/long range weapon they can get their hands on - if UKR can survive that and counter attacks then the well will be dry and the RUS army in UKR will collapse. UKR can kill Russians quicker than the Russians can kill Ukrainians and, as Steve said, there's WAYYYYYYyyyy more Ukrainian fighters. Ukraine has passed through the first fire, yet a greater inferno awaits. But that test, if passed, will determine the war in their favour. Edited March 14, 2022 by Kinophile 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, sburke said: given the world supply chain issues with chips to the point my buddy has been waiting for a year for the pickup he ordered I'd say the likelihood of Russia turning out masses of electronics hungry vehicles is low. I am curious even how that impacts everyone but a Jav or NLAW needs a lot less than an armored vehicle/SAM unit/EW unit etc. I heard a report about this the other day. Total NATO stocks have many thousands in surplus to send to Ukraine before they have to compromise their own direct needs. Production of Javelins is something like 2500 a year at the current peacetime run rate. Which means there are plenty more AT weapons to send to the Ukrainians to take out the exiting Russian vehicles, not to mention the dribble of new production that might leave the factory floor. 4 minutes ago, sburke said: Steve you forgot all those guys from the VDV who came in on aircraft.. and those couple downed transport aircraft. I'd be curious to see how the more highly trained units have suffered. Throwing in poorly trained conscripts to replace their more highly trained units is.. well not a good plan. I had not forgotten them I sorta lumped them into the "aircraft" number of 500. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 T-14 is also an unproven system. Tell me, dear readers out there in virtual land, what brand new Russian or Soviet system has ever been fielded without there being significant problems that diverge the produced vehicle from the technical specifications? Plus what Russian or Soviet system has ever performed as well as the government says it will? Seriously though, T-14 was supposed to be fielded in large numbers by now. It hasn't been, so that should tell you something right there. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) @Battlefront.com@KinophileSorry, the T14 was a sarcastic citation. Really just asking if Russia's military industry is mobilized; producing whatever "battle ready" hardware and corresponding personnel as fast as bloody possible and if they are committed to a "conventional" approach rather than a chicken little meets dr. evil doomsday solution... Edited March 14, 2022 by Vic4 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 I took it as sarcasm, but it still was fun to kick the T-14 in the teeth. I had to put up with a lot of trolls back in 2014 that said that soon NATO would be outclassed and we should all just surrender. Non-trolls told them they were all nuts for x, y, and z reasons. Nice to be able to definitively be able to say "we told you so". Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Haha copy that... But seriously, would totally appreciate if you took a swing at the question; can they keep this going without crazy time escalation? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 If true, and it does seem to be, more indications that Russia's ability to wage war AT ALL (not to mention incompetently) is showing signs of strain. 80 Russian Marines refused to go back to Ukraine after returning to Crimea to lick their wounds at Kherson: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/12/7330820/ Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Copy. Truly hope that incompetence, corruption and insubordination extends to their nuclear division... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Vic4 said: Copy. Truly hope that incompetence, corruption and insubordination extends to their nuclear division... insubordination yes. I would hope though that they aren't too incompetent or corrupt. We have already done enough over the years cleaning up Russia's nuclear mess. Submarine Dismantlement Assistance - The Nuclear Threat Initiative (nti.org) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 Chechens are also approaching Mariupol. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evilcommie Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: I heard a report about this the other day. Total NATO stocks have many thousands in surplus to send to Ukraine before they have to compromise their own direct needs. Production of Javelins is something like 2500 a year at the current peacetime run rate. Which means there are plenty more AT weapons to send to the Ukrainians to take out the exiting Russian vehicles, not to mention the dribble of new production that might leave the factory floor. I had not forgotten them I sorta lumped them into the "aircraft" number of 500. Steve I suspect many NATO countries would want to donate their stockpile of munitions, especially ones close to their “best used before date” so they can justify getting newer stuff. It’s probably cheaper donating them than having to responsiblely recycle them following current environmental guidelines. Those East german Strella Manpads ….. Edited March 14, 2022 by evilcommie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homo_Ferricus Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, sburke said: Steve you forgot all those guys from the VDV who came in on aircraft.. and those couple downed transport aircraft. Can we stop bringing up the "shot down" transport aircraft loaded with VDV until at least THE FIRST piece of evidence that this actually happened is turned over? Seriously I'm all for being proven wrong--show me the evidence--but I resolutely believe in observing some simple standards about this sort of parroting. Haven't seen any video/pics, remains, flight radar data to support it, obituaries, corroborating witnesses... anything, except for a claim by the group(s) that would stand to gain the most from such a morale victory, particularly in the opening hours of war. Would love to get to the bottom of this "big if true" claim. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Russia simply can't win a war of numbers. Which is why I, and lots of other people, over the past few years have said a full on Russian war against Ukraine would be a national suicide mission. Steve Yeah I agree. This has been my opinion also and caused me to be quite shocked that this even started. As I posted on another forum, even to me, a half-arsed gamer with a bit of historical knowledge on the other side of the world, invading UKR seemed to be a lose-lose situation. Doesn't make sense. My one real hope is that Putin will lose his skin for all the misery he's unleashed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: T-14 is also an unproven system. Tell me, dear readers out there in virtual land, what brand new Russian or Soviet system has ever been fielded without there being significant problems that diverge the produced vehicle from the technical specifications? Plus what Russian or Soviet system has ever performed as well as the government says it will? Seriously though, T-14 was supposed to be fielded in large numbers by now. It hasn't been, so that should tell you something right there. Steve I bet it heavily relies on western technology (as literally every single thing in Russia down to the toilet paper) and they were supposed to go into the mass production in 2014 but then Russia invaded us, its military sector got screwed and there is only their government claim that a whopping 20 TEST units were delivered to the army in October of last year. Not to mention that sending T-14 in here with a high chance of it getting snatched by the tractor and suddenly offloaded somewhere in the US is a bad bad idea. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 2500 Javelins a year needs a zero added to it. Because when there are 10,000 to 20,000 javelins, and 10,000 to 20,000 stingers/starstreaks on Taiwan, the island is uncrackable, at least to get in any state where there would be a point in taking it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kraze Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 something something russian getting ambushed 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strykr45 Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) “Every Battle Is Won Before It Is Ever Fought” (Sun Tzu) Unless you believe twitter. Edited March 14, 2022 by Strykr45 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 How would this fit into CM:BS? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
melm Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 A pickup maybe? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 The bumper sticker says "Russian warship, **** off". A nice mod there for someone. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 (edited) Uups. scratch that. @Kraze was faster. Edited March 14, 2022 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Vic4 said: Copy. Truly hope that incompetence, corruption and insubordination extends to their nuclear division... It surely does, but unfortunately we don´t know the extent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted March 14, 2022 Share Posted March 14, 2022 16 hours ago, The_Capt said: @Haiduk Do we have any indications the Russians are actually conducting this door-to-door control in occupied regions effectively? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.