How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BletchleyGeek]

Some folks figured out that you can get a reasonably good idea of military activity in Ukraine using NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System

On the thread a link is provided to the NASA web app, so you guys can take a look too.

 

[sross112]

I sure appreciate all the information and expert insight this community has put together here. Thank you and hopefully some of you can answer some questions that I've had.

Doing cursory internet research on the Ukrainian forces and their weaponry, I see that most of their heavy stuff is Russian, but they seem to be producing their own infantry small arms and support weapons. Did the Ukraine plan to replace all their old stuff with locally produced weapons? Are they starting with the smaller weapons systems and planning on working their way up and away from all Russian weapon systems eventually? I can imagine that will take a long time and significant investment, but probably the best choice. Why not buy the heavier systems from the west? Didn't have enough time/money or did they try and get blocked for some political reason?

Or did their logistics and procurement people decide that it was best to have their people trained on Russian gear and just buy new John Deere's for the farmers for procurement? Sorry, had to throw that one in with the serious questions.  

Way earlier in this thread there was a little back and forth about the lack of infantry use in the leg role by the Russians. I experience a dichotomy of emotions watching the videos. The old CM'r in me cringes, but I'm happy for the Ukrainians that the invaders are so tactically inept. Anyway, I started looking at several western armies in Europe and it seems almost nobody has much leg infantry anymore. I get the big tanks and guns are sexy and cool and chicks dig 'em,  but shouldn't modern armies have a sizable component of good ole grunt infantry to take and hold rough/urban/mountainous terrain? Not to mention it being cheaper to form/maintain as well as a smaller logistical footprint. I think most of the conflicts we've seen over the past 2-3 decades the heavies have been great for the initial assault and then the long term heavy lifting has been shouldered by the infantry. Do you guys think that this conflict as well as the others that have come and gone will influence an increase back to basic light formations or is wheeled/tracked mobility so crucial that their era is gone? The Ukrainian Army and TD forces have shown the worth of motivated foot mobile warriors in inclement weather and difficult terrain, or is the success more due to their invader's incompetent use of forces?

Also there has been several references to whether or not heavy formations are still viable and this conflict will be studied a lot. My take is that not much will change with the heavy force compositions. I think they still have a place and can still be decisive. I believe the invaders have grossly mishandled their assets from top to bottom. I do want to clarify that I am not trying to diminish the success of the Ukrainian defenders, they have done a magnificent job and I fully expect in the end they will triumph. The question is, if the forces committed to the invasion were competently handled, supplied and led would the UA have been able to withstand the assault? Would have their regular armed forces been defeated and this already transitioned into a war of resistance or would the outcome have been the same?

Thanks in advance and for the uninitiated, No. 11 Chicken and Rice with copious tabasco was the only way to go.

 

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah... going to have to see some evidence of this before I believe it.  But I don't need to see evidence to know that I want to believe it

Seriously though, civilians can be quit crafty.  I had a great uncle that was in the Danish underground in WW2 and he told me a couple of stories.  First was that they took German marching songs, changed the lyrics to profoundly offensive anti-Nazi stuff, then song them in Danish right in front of German troops.  They recognized the tunes and though all was well.  heh.

Another one he told me was right out of Hollywood.  Girls bicycling around with violin cases with Stens in them.  They'd flirt a bit with the German checkpoints and zip... off they went.

Given the creativity I've seen with Ukrainian civilians so far, I think they are going to have a lot of stories to tell their grand children.

Steve

I have a friend whose grandmother was nicknamed "le Pigeon" in the the French resistance. The stories are wild.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, keas66 said:

One question I would have in light  of the apparent appalling state of the Russian Army ...is how much do the NATO  aligned intelligence services know ? How  has this been kept a secret  ? . Are there other branches of the Russian Federation  Armed Forces in the same state - "faking" it .  Exactly how functional are those nuclear assets they keep threatening the West with ?

Kofman has made the argument that you can't really know until you see a military in action. Think that's spot on.

[Homo_Ferricus]

56 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Pretty informative look at the slat armor on the roofs of T-72s:

 

 

 

Russian crews all over Ukraine after watching this video:

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I have a friend whose grandmother was nicknamed "le Pigeon" in the the French resistance. The stories are wild.

Ever see Battle of Algiers?  One of the few war movies where both sides say it is pretty authentic.  

The Battle of Algiers (imdb.com)

I was in Algiers a few years ago and got to talking with the cab driver who proceeded to take us on a mini tour of some of the locations that appear in the story.  It is very brutal and tragic but an unvarnished look at an insurgency campaign.  The Milk bar cafe, a target if the beginning of the FLN bombing campaign, is still there.

[dan/california]

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-belarus-morgue-soldiers/31750455.html

I would file this under Putin not winning.

 

[John Kettler]

Steve,

Thought the video was pretty good and absolutely was well presented, but I have yet to see one such Javelin cage equipped T-anything (since I'm not sure the cages are confined solely to T-72B3s) that's been hit by a Javelin in the cage, let alone anything beyond that ref the shaped charge jet's hitting hitting the turret roof or the ERA covering part of it. Also, there are quite a few different overhead protection systems in use, making it, I think, unwise to make sweeping statements while analyzing only one overhead defensive scheme. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 13, 2022 by John Kettler

[dan/california]

Marching like men who expect to win

Edited March 13, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Zveroboy1]

Ukrainian soldiers are the new Finns of ww2. All they need now is a new Simo Häyhä.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

The Russians complete lack of secure coms is getting REALLY expensive.

There must be more to it than that.

Western Intel must be complementing UKR work, with airborne/space surveillance providing realtime location to UKRVSF command.

Their decapitation strikes have been far above what a Tier 1 v Tier 2 conflict should permit. Basic tactical security for RUS command groups should be able to deal with headhunter attacks. The guys getting killed are dying because they can't escape the kill plan, which itself must therefore be robust enough, layered enough and informed enough identify them, geolocate, rapidly coordinate the kill teams and describe escape routes/options, to quickly hit, trap and kill them.

They're getting hit because UKR has correctly identified C4 as critical to disjointing RUS operations, but they're actually dying consistently due to real time Western ISR.

One or two lucky kills I could see. But this current campaign of nobz-killin is systematic, rigorous, carefully selective and relentlessly successful. Western hallmarks.

[Kinophile]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Marching like men who expect to win

That was LITERALLY the words in my head.

Just something about their stride seems so determined, energized. Motivated.

 

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[CAZmaj]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Marching like men who expect to win

Ukranian? I don't think so. No yellow armbands!?

 

[Cobetco]

Kraze and Haiduk will correct me if i'm wrong, as I have been in the past. But I thought the yellow arm bands where emblematic of the territorial units, not the army. the BTR is interesting however, no big stupid Z, but it looks like an 82, I was under the impression Ukraine didn't operate those (unless its a capture)

[Offshoot]

At 5 seconds there is a yellowish armband. A reply in the Twitter thread says they are Chechens and I remember seeing a video of Chechens with what looks like high-vis tape armbands

Edited to remove direct link to Russian propaganda

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Offshoot

[Cobetco]

considering the BTR that sounds more correct. also this reeks of being a propaganda film.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Cobetco

[kraze]

Those are russian troops, they wear russian camo and we don't use BTR82 although we now have a few.

Those aren't yellow but white armbands with what looks to be yellowish lining - that video compression blows up, but you can see them clearly in close ups.

Ukrainians wear yellow and blue, russians wear white and red.

[Doc844]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

There must be more to it than that.

Western Intel must be complementing UKR work, with airborne/space surveillance providing realtime location to UKRVSF command.

Their decapitation strikes have been far above what a Tier 1 v Tier 2 conflict should permit. Basic tactical security for RUS command groups should be able to deal with headhunter attacks. The guys getting killed are dying because they can't escape the kill plan, which itself must therefore be robust enough, layered enough and informed enough identify them, geolocate, rapidly coordinate the kill teams and describe escape routes/options, to quickly hit, trap and kill them.

They're getting hit because UKR has correctly identified C4 as critical to disjointing RUS operations, but they're actually dying consistently due to real time Western ISR.

One or two lucky kills I could see. But this current campaign of nobz-killin is systematic, rigorous, carefully selective and relentlessly successful. Western hallmarks.

Yes, this is what I was saying a couple of pages back.

[kraze]

mountaineers found an EW gift

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Marching like men who expect to win

Sorry for getting it wrong.

 

[dan/california]

Anybody got a primer on the different uniforms?

[Sir Lancelot]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

At 5 seconds there is a yellowish armband. Another thread says they are Chechens and I remember seeing a video of Chechens with what looks like high-vis tape armbands

 

BTR-82A, AK-74M, men with beard, these probably are Chechens.

Edited March 13, 2022 by Sir Lancelot

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, Doc844 said:

With all these command and control centres and high ranking commanders getting taken out I'm starting to suspect that NATO/US are ELINT snooping and sending the co-ordinates to the Ukrainians.  I cant believe that the Ukranians have either A, the assets to do this or B, blind luck taking out so many in a short space of time, to much of a coincidence for me.

I think, US, of course shares some information, but you some underestimate our EW and SIGINT capabilities. We have own developments in this brach, which not worth than western examples and they already several years in service. We have own EW and SIGINT/ELINT units subordinated to Operative Commands as well as such units on brigade level, in recon battalions, recon companies etc. 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[laribe]

If a No-Fly zone is out how would a anti missile barrier from the Polish border go down ie: Patriot missiles

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, sross112 said:

Doing cursory internet research on the Ukrainian forces and their weaponry, I see that most of their heavy stuff is Russian, but they seem to be producing their own infantry small arms and support weapons. Did the Ukraine plan to replace all their old stuff with locally produced weapons?

T-64 tank was developed in Soviet times in Kharkiv, so we can say this lineage of Soviet tank is our and we can produce and upgrade it as well as T-84 -> BM Oplot -> perspective tank

We have own developments in combat vehicles BTR-4, BTR-3DA and light armored cars - Kozak-2/2M series, Varta, Novator

BMPs, some big number of BTRs still Soviet types or upgrading like BRDM-2, which became main vehicle for new-formed motorized infantry brigades.

Small-arms also still mostly Soviet or upgraded like AK-TK. Own production of PKM clones (KM-7.62) exists, but it can't supply all needs. Bullpups like Vulkan-M (other name Maliuk) is only for SOF and some recon units, also not mass weapon. UAR-10 rifles, based on Zbroyar-10 (AR-10 based) now in most cases substituted old Soviet SVD

ATGMs. NLAWs and Javelins are very useful, but we have own heavy Stugna-P and light Korsar, which alredy are in enought quantity

Artillery still all Soviet, but its capability significantly increased by adopting of digital integrated reckon&targeting system, developed by civil vilunteers. Also there is some developments in heavy MLRS guided rockets (Vilkha/Vilkha-M) - analogue of HIMARS.    

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk