How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

30 minutes ago, keas66 said:

I am curious how  encirclement occurs if you only remain on the roads ?

Clarification needed about who encircles who - seeing as how rear fuel convoys catch on fire daily

[kraze]

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

there are some signs of that already.  Part of the censorship push is probably motivated by this.  It will slow the response but eventually it will percolate through.  It isn't just that they are casualties, but that they even had a shooting war.  As with so many things about this war Russia did not prepare its population, in fact they lied as much to them as everyone else.

They prepared the population. Everybody believed Kyiv will fall in 2 days. Including putin himself. In fact russians mocked us for years that it will take 2 days tops.

Well ok, putin gave his troops an additional day to capture Kyiv for 3 days total - in case something would go horribly wrong.

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I lost the link, but there was an article about this whole mess that explained that NATO was trying to do the transfer quietly so they could have sneaked them into Ukraine.  Unfortunately, an element of Polish "populists" decided to crow abut it publicly to get themselves some more likes on Facebook.  There's one thing you can count on a populist politician doing... grabbing attention and damn the consequences are.  Doesn't mater what country, what period of history you look at this is a universal trait of populism.

Steve

That may be true. In that case it was done so quiet that apparently not even members of the German defense committee were informed. And correct, of course, populists not blaming others wouldn't be populists...

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mykolaiv oblast, Russian 2S19 fell in the irrigation canal and was abandoned

Seriously..W...T...F?!  How do pieces of Russian equipment that are right near the top of the JTL wind up being abandoned because they fell into a ditch?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

They prepared the population. Everybody believed Kyiv will fall in 2 days. Including putin himself. In fact russians mocked us for years that it will take 2 days tops.

Well ok, putin gave his troops an additional day to capture Kyiv for 3 days total - in case something would go horribly wrong.

lol exactly.  Maybe he should have checked first with Zelensky on how quickly Kiev would fall. 

[Thomm]

JTL = Joint Target List?!

[A Canadian Cat]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Painting MiG29s in Ukrainian colors and letting Ukrainian pilots fly them home isn't escalation, it's transfer of Ukrainian jets to Ukrainian airspace.

Sounds like a good way to make the transfer.

1 hour ago, kraze said:

If putin really wants to justify a fight with NATO - he doesn't need any real reason to. Just like he never needed one for every single russian invasion ever.

This. I get not actually attacking Russian forces inside Russia (which a no fly zone would necessitate) but NATO already shipped lethal aid to Ukraine so this is just more of the same. What @kraze said - Putin might decide tomorrow that sending food or helping refugees is an act of war or he'll make something up out of nothing at all. We might as well actually help Ukraine defeat this guy.

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I lost the link, but there was an article about this whole mess that explained that NATO was trying to do the transfer quietly so they could have sneaked them into Ukraine.  Unfortunately, an element of Polish "populists" decided to crow abut it publicly to get themselves some more likes on Facebook.  There's one thing you can count on a populist politician doing... grabbing attention and damn the consequences are.  Doesn't mater what country, what period of history you look at this is a universal trait of populism.

Steve

Can still hand them off quietly.

Could've pretended Luxembourg is giving us planes and see how Russia falls all over itself trying to somehow retaliate at a landlocked non-NATO member in the middle of Europe, surrounded by two nuclear NATO countries.

Edited March 9, 2022 by kraze

[Roter Stern]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course the news is so bad that he's going to try and obscure it as best he can, but the information will get out there.  And when it does...

Notice that so far the only "official" casualty report came from the Armed Forces (albeit very optimistic) and none from Rosgvardiya, MVD, FSB, and whoever else undoubtedly got thrown in.

 

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I lost the link, but there was an article about this whole mess that explained that NATO was trying to do the transfer quietly so they could have sneaked them into Ukraine. 

Genuine question here - how much use would those MiGs really be, given the current situation? Seems to me, that personnel-portable AA and AT weapons and UAVs stand to produce a much greater effect than a limited number of light fighters.

[DesertFox]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Trent has been the single best analyst of this war so far, but this post is not very good. Russia has forty BTGs left in the entire country. I don't think Putin can afford to commit his very last soldier to Ukraine with economy in free fall. There are no shortage of unhappy ethnic groups in Russia. If they noticed the nearest tank was a thousand miles away and not coming back anytime soon there would be consequences.

It is not Trent´s analysis. He only cites @CITeam_en, and the info presented there does look valid at first glance.

From the thread:

Quote

These roughly 40 battalion tactical groups represent the available reinforcements short of a mobilization in Russia, which would be politically costly but not unthinkable. We will be monitoring these developments closely.

I don´t want to speculate about mobilization, but with these trains on the move, the whole time I had to think about Rommel´s first days in Afrika and his initial parade to show his Korps to the world. As we know he had his tanks cycle a few times around the block to make the impression of a larger force. The russians know very well that all their military moves are observed by the west, so it could be that they try to show something to the west which actually isn´t there. Would fit with their lets say "potemkin military strategy".

I guess we will learn soon what it´s all about with these armour laden trains moving in Balarus and towards Ukraine.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Kraft said:

Besides the obvious worries of escalation NATO is reserving actions short of declaring war to be able to deter Putin from escalating his use of force in Ukraine.

Looking at Syria, the scale of civilian suffering has an almost unlimited ceiling, if all tricks are out of the hat there is little that would stop Russia from using chemical weapons and precisely targeting hospitals (ie not just collateral damage).

 

I have brought this up before to mixed reviews, but whatI call the flywheel of barbarity is spinning faster and faster.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In English this has long been called "Russification".  The Wikipedia definition of it is as follows (my bold):

"a form of cultural assimilation process during which non-Russian communities (whether involuntarily or voluntarily) give up their culture and language in favor of Russian culture. "

 

Kraze didn't mention another element of the Empire strategy, which was pushed by the Soviets in a massive way... relocation of ethnic Russians to non-Russian areas.  Russia knew for a long time that the best way to have a loyal base of operations in some distant non-Russian area was to put a bunch of Russians there.  The state could draw from this population to administer the non-Russians and ensure their domination by Russia.

Because of the friction between Russians and non-Russians, the transplanted Russian population would be more dependent on the Russian/Soviet state for defense than the local population around it.  A very logical and successful strategy.

This is *part* of the reason why there are so many ethnic Russians living outside of the traditional Russian borders.  Especially in Russia's far eastern regions where there was 0.0% Russians living there to start with, as opposed to places like Ukraine and the Baltics where Russians moved around in those areas for centuries.

Steve

This is also an enormous point of vulnerability, you have a ruling class of a different ethnicity, and different first language, that is viscously disliked by the majority of the population. This works as long as the majority is scared enough. It gets VERY dicey when the mailed fist that backs up that ruling class starts looking weak. Weak as in the riot police battalion is however many thousand miles away getting its #$% shot off, and nobody knows if it is coming home or when. Pretty much a textbook example, actually. 

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, Roter Stern said:

Genuine question here - how much use would those MiGs really be, given the current situation? Seems to me, that personnel-portable AA and AT weapons and UAVs stand to produce a much greater effect than a limited number of light fighters.

As mentioned earlier by akd, the simple threat of them intercepting Russian missions would significantly hinder the deployment of bombers and air assaults as Russia would have to move a lot more assets to keep it's weaker air units protected, in the form of CAP and mixed loadouts.

As an example those single Ka52s protecting supply convoys (as seen in a video some pages ago) would be more exposed and would require protection closeby themselfs, same with the bombing missions.

With the number of MiGs in question Ukraine could very much gain the upper hand locally and take out a number of Russian air units, especially with US/UK/.. intel.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Kraft

[LuckyDog]

Steve raised the question about what is the tipping point and when will we recognize it? At this point, the RU forces still have these simplistic options: 1) advance, 2) dig in, or 3) retreat. Which is the tipping point?

I don’t think while they can exercise option one, advancing, we are at the tipping point. Putin may believe that he can advance based on the information received. RU army/State exhibit a lack of psychological safety at all levels, resulting in poor decision-making. Leaders don’t get accurate information in unsafe environments – symptoms include padding of numbers at all levels, and a lack of critical thinking (no one challenges the leader’s ideas - someone mentioned groupthink many pages ago). Their false information traps the high command; the only option is to follow Putin’s unrealistic directives or face the consequences.

Does the RU army have any more serviceable kit to send to Ukraine? If you look at factors like the egg box ERA we have seen or civilian trucks, you have to wonder. If they could cannibalize equipment, they did, and this is the best they can do. Can they trust Xi enough to move their working equipment from the far east? They can certainly send more warm bodies, but morale is an issue. I think advancing shortens the time to the tipping point. It takes a lot of ammo, fuel, communication, and intel – and I’m not sure the RU forces have much of any of these. It also stretches their supply lines and makes them more vulnerable

When they stop moving, the RU army perception will change. The current UKR ambushes have left the RU army without a defined front line, which requires resource allocation from aggressive operations to a 360-degree defense - effectively moving the mindset from hunter to hunted. The lack of psychological safety is critical at a tactical level and is already demonstrable with the abandoned equipment. How long will enlisted soldiers risk their lives when they know their commanders don’t care about them, cannot provide leadership, and cannot provide the tools they need?

I know there is a lot more to this, but IMHO, the tipping point is when the RU army stops advancing. I think they will stay immobile until someone realizes that they don’t have the ability to exercise option three, retreat. Then things turn desperate for Putin, which is not a good place and won't lead to rational decisions.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously..W...T...F?!  How do pieces of Russian equipment that are right near the top of the JTL wind up being abandoned because they fell into a ditch?

The Russians just don't seem to have even a fraction of the infantry they need. A function army would have a platoon guard this until a recovery could get out there. As is the Russians don't have a platoon they trust to actually stay there, and it isn't clear they have the recovery vehicle either. So a farmer will set it on fire with a pint of gas and a cigarette. 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Those single Ka52s protecting a supply convoy (as seen in a video some pages ago) would suddenly be under threat and would need protection closeby themselfs

a few of those shot down with stingers might be more effective.

[danfrodo]

Yeah, The MIGs might never get near russian AD, they could contest airspace away from the battlefield, protecting force movement, supplies, infrastructure and displaced civilians on the move.

I just saw that Swedish AT4s have made it into the hands of UA units, with a total of 5000 being supplied.  What do y'all think of this?  Seems like another nice piece of gear for the infantry to knock out the roadbound russians.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, LuckyDog said:

Steve raised the question about what is the tipping point and when will we recognize it? At this point, the RU forces still have these simplistic options: 1) advance, 2) dig in, or 3) retreat. Which is the tipping point?

I don’t think while they can exercise option one, advancing, we are at the tipping point. Putin may believe that he can advance based on the information received. RU army/State exhibit a lack of psychological safety at all levels, resulting in poor decision-making. Leaders don’t get accurate information in unsafe environments – symptoms include padding of numbers at all levels, and a lack of critical thinking (no one challenges the leader’s ideas - someone mentioned groupthink many pages ago). Their false information traps the high command; the only option is to follow Putin’s unrealistic directives or face the consequences.

Does the RU army have any more serviceable kit to send to Ukraine? If you look at factors like the egg box ERA we have seen or civilian trucks, you have to wonder. If they could cannibalize equipment, they did, and this is the best they can do. Can they trust Xi enough to move their working equipment from the far east? They can certainly send more warm bodies, but morale is an issue. I think advancing shortens the time to the tipping point. It takes a lot of ammo, fuel, communication, and intel – and I’m not sure the RU forces have much of any of these. It also stretches their supply lines and makes them more vulnerable

When they stop moving, the RU army perception will change. The current UKR ambushes have left the RU army without a defined front line, which requires resource allocation from aggressive operations to a 360-degree defense - effectively moving the mindset from hunter to hunted. The lack of psychological safety is critical at a tactical level and is already demonstrable with the abandoned equipment. How long will enlisted soldiers risk their lives when they know their commanders don’t care about them, cannot provide leadership, and cannot provide the tools they need?

I know there is a lot more to this, but IMHO, the tipping point is when the RU army stops advancing. I think they will stay immobile until someone realizes that they don’t have the ability to exercise option three, retreat. Then things turn desperate for Putin, which is not a good place and won't lead to rational decisions.

Now that is a proper post.  Well planned and well executed, leaving the reader with a better understanding of the situation and likely outcomes.  Nicely done. 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 So a farmer will set it on fire with a pint of gas and a cigarette. 

Nope, there is always the JohnDeere option...

[Kraft]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

a few of those shot down with stingers might be more effective.

Its not about the Ka52 being shot down (which it will be regardless) but the resource drain forced on the Russians to prevent it from being easily shot down from the Air. Constant CAP protection around those assets that could also hold its own against a massed Ukrainian effort would require a lot more and would definelty limit the ability of the RuAF to send those choppers out

Edited March 9, 2022 by Kraft

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Its not about the Ka52 being shot down but the resource drain forced on the Russians to prevent it from being easily shot down from the Air. Constant CAP protection that could hold its own against a massed Ukrainian effort would require a lot more and would definelty limit the ability of the RuAF to send those choppers out

Having to have that chopper over the convoy in the first place is an enormous resource drain.

[Kraft]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Having to have that chopper over the convoy in the first place is an enormous resource drain.

Now imagine if Russia had to send an additional fighter section to protect the Ka52 that is protecting a dozen rusty trucks driving hundrets of KMs. I think they'd rather just order new trucks and find someone to drive it..

Thats atleast the main implication I see behind those MiGs, I do not think it would be wise to just throw them into the mix for a couple of days and mourn the Pilots.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Kraft

[danfrodo]

weather not looking great.  Warming in Kyiv and Kherson areas in a couple days, but Kharkiv remains at or below freezing.  No rain in the forecast for the next 7 days at least.  If gods could make it rain on Hitler, surely they could do that same for Putin? -- they dislike hubris.

 

 

[DesertFox]

He has an important point. Confirmation bias and being manipulated. We need to keep that in mind.

 

 

[sburke]

I am just waiting for Zelensky to post a request for tires for all those Russian vehicles they are capturing.  C'mon Goodyear, step up and make your contribution to the effort!

[John Kettler]

21 hours ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

DesertFox,

Since there are several pieces of ordnance called butterfly mines, I decided to clarify what mine was being talked about. Turns out it was the PFM-1 AP mine, and I'm delighted to report a way has been found to detect them from a drone so they can be removed.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/drones-used-to-find-toylike-butterfly-land-mines/
 

Also, there is now an upgraded version termed PFM-1S.
 

Regards,

John Kettler