How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

2 hours ago, melm said:

Yeah. Your words perfectly explained why Lukashenko chose to side with Putin this time.

Nah. Lukashenko and his thugs always had to side with their fellow gangster, because he has no idea how to play nice in civilised company. Hence his population needing to be rendered black and blue and dead to keep them from removing him from power. He's a bandit in a smart suit. Another insecure narcissist who doesn't give a fig about anyone else.

[arkhangelsk2021]

21 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

And yet, here you are, advising the Ukrainians with your 'moral vibe' to 'get this done quickly', comparing the Ukrainian army with the Belgian army of 1914.

In terms of "sob-storyness", Belgium actually has Ukraine beat. For one thing, in relative terms the gap between Ukraine and Russia is a lot smaller than Belgium and Germany. For another thing, Belgium really was trying to remain neutral, as opposed to Ukraine's constant aspirations to ally with NATO. For a third thing, Belgium never crossed Germany in the way Ukraine did, or if it happened I'm not aware of it.

I know it's hard to remember in 2022, but from 1991 to 2013, Moscow respected Ukraine's sovereignty despite Ukraine actually being rather stabby, and the West in essence condones Ukraine's behavior. In contrast, Washington works hard to guide Korea (for example, Korea cannot build missiles exceeding a certain range) and Japan in directions that won't be too provocative against China. 
The first time I really noticed Ukraine was around 2004 when they had their Orange Revolution, thus putting themselves, for the moment, in an anti-Russian camp. Russia reacted with no more than to say that Ukraine will have to pay regular price (not extra, REGULAR price) for gas now that it's not a friend. Ukraine reacted by embezzling gas entrusted to their pipelines. In their Russophobia, the West blamed Russia for "coercing" Ukraine (oh god, making them pay regular price is now coercion...) and was extremely forgiving to Ukraine despite it being THEM that's being objectively deprived of gas they need for their own homes.

In 2010, Yakunovich won an election, fair and square, at least in the opinion of the monitors. The Ukrainians reacted by tossing him out, because he made ONE pro-Russian decision. Putin has said that Ukraine lacks traditions of statehood, and frankly that instance demonstrates this. The people of a more mature state than Ukraine would realize that Yakunovich made a realist decision, and even if they disagree well they can vote him out next year. But no, they kicked him out, and of course, they've only gotten more anti-Russian since. It's one thing to argue that that's still no excuse to attack Ukraine, but in essence to Russia it's like Canada as a whole suddenly becoming extremely anti-US. Plus if you are using only the law as your shield, well then you have to stick to it, and the Ukrainians could not even do that. If the West was fair-minded, sure they can condemn the Maidan shootings, sure, but they should have acknowledged the illegality of that throw out. But no, Russophobia rules the day.

Like I said, Belgium is really much more of a sob story than Ukraine is, but we don't lose our shirts when we discuss Germany invading Belgium. It is possible to understand Germany's need to attack Belgium while still on balance condemning it. No one would advocate torture just to "show the Germans". So what's the difference here? Is it really Russophobia at work?

[borg]

Just outside of Kyiv…. Irpin..

Seems the RUS got it bad. Very bad . By the TDF.

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

In terms of "sob-storyness", Belgium actually has Ukraine beat. For one thing, in relative terms the gap between Ukraine and Russia is a lot smaller than Belgium and Germany. For another thing, Belgium really was trying to remain neutral, as opposed to Ukraine's constant aspirations to ally with NATO. For a third thing, Belgium never crossed Germany in the way Ukraine did, or if it happened I'm not aware of it.

I know it's hard to remember in 2022, but from 1991 to 2013, Moscow respected Ukraine's sovereignty despite Ukraine actually being rather stabby, and the West in essence condones Ukraine's behavior. In contrast, Washington works hard to guide Korea (for example, Korea cannot build missiles exceeding a certain range) and Japan in directions that won't be too provocative against China. 
The first time I really noticed Ukraine was around 2004 when they had their Orange Revolution, thus putting themselves, for the moment, in an anti-Russian camp. Russia reacted with no more than to say that Ukraine will have to pay regular price (not extra, REGULAR price) for gas now that it's not a friend. Ukraine reacted by embezzling gas entrusted to their pipelines. In their Russophobia, the West blamed Russia for "coercing" Ukraine (oh god, making them pay regular price is now coercion...) and was extremely forgiving to Ukraine despite it being THEM that's being objectively deprived of gas they need for their own homes.

In 2010, Yakunovich won an election, fair and square, at least in the opinion of the monitors. The Ukrainians reacted by tossing him out, because he made ONE pro-Russian decision. Putin has said that Ukraine lacks traditions of statehood, and frankly that instance demonstrates this. The people of a more mature state than Ukraine would realize that Yakunovich made a realist decision, and even if they disagree well they can vote him out next year. But no, they kicked him out, and of course, they've only gotten more anti-Russian since. It's one thing to argue that that's still no excuse to attack Ukraine, but in essence to Russia it's like Canada as a whole suddenly becoming extremely anti-US. Plus if you are using only the law as your shield, well then you have to stick to it, and the Ukrainians could not even do that. If the West was fair-minded, sure they can condemn the Maidan shootings, sure, but they should have acknowledged the illegality of that throw out. But no, Russophobia rules the day.

Like I said, Belgium is really much more of a sob story than Ukraine is, but we don't lose our shirts when we discuss Germany invading Belgium. It is possible to understand Germany's need to attack Belgium while still on balance condemning it. No one would advocate torture just to "show the Germans". So what's the difference here? Is it really Russophobia at work?

Hell yes!

[CHEqTRO]

More about the lack of Russian air superiority:

The Ukranians are still being able to use helicopters around Kyiv, and now we have the first confirmation of TB2 drones striking rear supply convoys

[arkhangelsk2021]

  

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And why do you think that is?  Good planning?  Good execution of that plan?

Physical impossibility would be my honest answer. How much time (and munitions) did it take NATO to crush the Serbian Air Defenses, or to consider themselves satisfied working over Iraq. Much more than the less than a day that Russia used. Why do you think the Russians would feel they can outkill NATO?

APPEND: Perhaps I should make it clear, I'm not saying the Russians didn't make mistakes that might have made them suppress less than they could have. Just that given the time and by extension ammo they used, even with a "realistic perfect" execution they aren't going to get everything.

Edited February 27, 2022 by arkhangelsk2021
Add clarifier

[borg]

That’s it - Irpin heavy assault by RUS has been repelled , and the footage ….. it’s not nice . My god. War is hell. 
 

why the hell , did they do this ? Russia must stop this . It’s an annihilation. 

[John Kettler]

Sarjen,

Much appreciate that link. Have opened a separate tab for it. Man, are those comments a lot to wade through!  Per one comment, this kind of tally Oryx is doing is something he's done for a bunch of other conflicts, too. 

All,

If situation maps and such are your thing, then you need to know about this great open source incident map.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/follow-the-russia-ukraine-monitor-map/

Bellingcat has produced a video documenting Russian false flag propaganda used by them to "justify" the coming war. Have not embedded it because it has a Graphic Content warning.

Euromaidan Press@EuromaidanPress·2hAs of 6:00AM on 27 February - General Staff:
Russian occupiers reduced the tempo of offensive
Russian troops face problems with fuel and ammunition, stop on the roads & cities
Majority of occupiers are young conscripts, have low morale

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

3h

 

07:35 EET Oleh Synehubov, head of Kharkiv Oblast Administration, wrote on FB that there was a breakthrough of Russian light equipment in Kharkiv, including its central part. He asked civilians to stay at home as the Ukrainian Army was eliminating the enemy.

 

Steve,

3 hours ago Euromaidan Press posted a video of Tigrs and Russian tracks rushing through Kharkiv. They sport the boxed Z. Video wouldn't copy.

All,

Remember what I said about RADHAZ? No tac nukes needed for this one!

About 01:20 EET, Russian shells hit the radioactive waste storage facility of the Kyiv branch of the Radon Association, according to Ukraine's State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine.

 

8:02 PM · Feb 26, 2022·Twitter Web App

 

7h

 

Replying to

@EuromaidanPress

The Agency says the enterprise's personnel reported it by phone from the shelter amid the ongoing shelling and having no possibility to assess the scale of destruction and the radiation levels.

 

Euromaidan Press

 

@EuromaidanPress

·

7h

 

The automated radiation monitoring system failed, but surveillance cameras recorded the shell impacts. Preliminarily, there's no threat outside the sanitary protection zone. The radiation situation will be assessed after the shelling is over.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cisco Bhoy

 

@CiscoBhoy

·

7h

 

Replying to

@EuromaidanPress

Verified that this facility does exist. They treat a wide range of hazardous waste. Need more info to know the potential risk but the intent is clear. This is global terrorism. https://youcontrol.com.ua/en/catalog/company_details/43068161/

 

Rep

 

 

On a separate RADHAZ note, apparently vehicle movements through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone threw up lots of radioactive dust, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, Zveroboy1 said:

Regarding Belarus, it must have caused a bit of a headache for Ukrainian military planners. I imagine that border wasn't left undefended before and the Russian troop build up and military exercises there gave them ample warning, yet that made their task more complicated for sure. And it doesn't sound too far fetched that Ukraine had to divert and redeploy troops as a result. Could it have weakened the defenses elsewhere in a significant way?

Zveroboy1,

Per a BBC article I read, this is why there's been fighting at Chernobyl, since it's the quickest route for a force entering from Belarus.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

The squad of 92nd brigade (BTR-4 on first cadres) fights with Russians in Kharkiv

Captured Russian ammunition in Kharkiv

Captured Russians. On first video Russian soldier says he is from 25th Guard motor-rifle brigade (Luga, Leningrad oblast, Western military district), machinegunner. They entered to the city with 4 Tigrs to secure some circle road. I think, this is recon battalion of brigade.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Captured Russian ammunition in Kharkiv

Bet they're glad they hadn't switched to NATO small arms, now

[Quick173]

Thanks for keeping this thread open.  As a non-professional reader of military history and wargamer, in addition to wishing the best for Ukraine, I am following like you all seem to be, what I can of the tactics, equipment and strategy employed.  It does appear that the Russian military has not achieved the quick and easy victory it appears to have thought it could achieve.  It also appears the Ukrainians are fighting hard and inflicting significant casualties.

As many of you I am sure have read, all this is happening in places with familiar names and geography from WW2s battles on the Eastern Front.  The fourth battle of Kharkov appears to be unfolding in front of us.  I recall from reading on this WW2 theater that battles, especially the breakthrough phase of an offensive, can go slowly for the attacker at first.  There are several lines of defense for the attacker assault before an operationally significant breakthrough is achieved.  That said, I have no idea if the Ukrainian military was prepared for the assault with prepared defensive positions. Though I assume that during these first couple of days the Russians are facing the best that Ukraine can throw at them.  Might a breakthrough occur as these units are worn down? 

Also, senior leadership, Hitler and Stalin in WW2, can play a significant role in forcing a military to stand and fight when military logic would argue a retreat to better lines.  Ukrainian forces are doing well, they have not allowed a deep penetration into their territory.  But I assume their forces are massed in the east fighting in Kharkov and near Donetsk as well as in the north.  What happens if a breakthrough does occur?  Will the Ukrainian military pull back, or will political leadership insist on holding at all costs?

We don't necessarily see this happening here.  But I wonder about Ukraine's forces in the east as the southern offensive moves north, particularly if it gains steam.  I am also curious about the Ukrainian military's ability to sustain the defense it has been putting up.  Do they have reserves to replace units that have been attrited in defensive combat, can they move ammo to resupply once on hand stocks are depleted.  I'd be also very interested to know whether they can incorporate reserve soldiers, and mobilized civilians, into their combat units or put them under some sort of command and control to incorporate them into the defense.

I look forward to reading all of your continued comments on this thread.

 

 

[Haiduk]

Who asked where is BMD-3 ? Here. Mykolaiv oblast. Abandoned

NLAW at Russian tank. Probably Kharkiv or Kharkiv oblast

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[arkhangelsk2021]

Russians may be almost reaching the southwestern edge of Kharkov.

[CHEqTRO]

A new iron curtain draws over Europe... for the Russian aviation . Despite the map, Kaliningrad would not be cut off, unless they also close their ADIZs.

Edited February 27, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[John Kettler]

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Who asked where is BMD-3 ? Here. Mykolaiv oblast. Abandoned

NLAW at Russian tank. Probably Kharkiv or Kharkiv oblast

 

Haiduk,

Great stuff! I don't speak Russian or Ukrainian, but I know enough to say the last two words on the NLAW kill were "Russian whores". Am sure UK MoD and the manufacturer alike will be pleased to see the donated NLAWs are being used and work great--at least, from the flank. I also like that scene where we return to the old days of passing one loaded musket after another to the shooter, but this time it's an RPG. Have seen lots of MOUT footage, but this approach is a new one to me.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited February 27, 2022 by John Kettler

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:

A new iron curtain draws over Europe... for the Russian aviation . Dont know what they are going to do with Kalingrad thought, its completely cut off.

Well ... actually ... no. I think this chart is confusing ADIZ for actual airspace. Actual airspace that you can deny access to is your own soil + 12 miles offshore, and it's clear that those red blocks well exceed that. Russian flights into Kaliningrad will have to avoid intruding into anyone's actual airspace and fly over the Baltic rather than straight lines to St. Petersburg, so it'd be inconvenient. but not quite cut off.

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You mean something like "Airborne Platoons only cost 245 points and I have 10,000 to spend on the battle.

Make sure your C2 is communicating properly, they don't have the luxury of a puppet master clicking to mouse. 

[CHEqTRO]

6 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Well ... actually ... no. I think this chart is confusing ADIZ for actual airspace. Actual airspace that you can deny access to is your own soil + 12 miles offshore, and it's clear that those red blocks well exceed that. Russian flights into Kaliningrad will have to avoid intruding into anyone's actual airspace and fly over the Baltic rather than straight lines to St. Petersburg, so it'd be inconvenient. but not quite cut off.

Suppossedly they are being banned from the totality of their airspaces, not only their ground one. That would include the regions on the sea.

Edited February 27, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[arkhangelsk2021]

1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:

Suppossedly they are benig banned from the totality of their airspaces, not only their ground airspace. That would include the regions on the sea.

The problem is that their jurisdiction does not extend over the sea. It simply isn't "their airspace", for example, in the center of the Denmarks Straits. If they actually try to do that, it'll be their turn to be the international law rulebreakers.

[CHEqTRO]

Just now, arkhangelsk2021 said:

The problem is that their jurisdiction does not extend over the sea. It simply isn't "their airspace", for example, in the center of the Denmarks Straits. If they actually try to do that, it'll be their turn to be the international law rulebreakers.

https://www.gc.noaa.gov/pdfs/Airspace above the Territorial Sea 10-16-18.pdf

There is no international rule being broken here

[CHEqTRO]

Also, the first T90 I have seen till now, abandoned near Sumy:

 

[arkhangelsk2021]

Just now, CHEqTRO said:

https://www.gc.noaa.gov/pdfs/Airspace above the Territorial Sea 10-16-18.pdf

There is no international rule being broken here

Yes, and do you know exactly what the "territorial seas" cover and do not cover? It's just 12 miles off the coast, and the Baltic Sea for example is more than 12 miles wide on each side.

[CHEqTRO]

4 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Yes, and do you know exactly what the "territorial seas" cover and do not cover? It's just 12 miles off the coast, and the Baltic Sea for example is more than 12 miles wide on each side.

It seems you are right on this. I thought they were closing the totality of their ADIZs.

[arkhangelsk2021]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/27-february-ukraine-has-submitted-its-application-against

Quote

Ukraine has submitted its application against Russia to the ICJ. Russia must be held accountable for manipulating the notion of genocide to justify aggression

Interesting idea. I support it, and not only because Bellingcat actually was convincing about those being fakes. Because even taking them at face value, they just fall far short of anything that can reasonably be called Genocide.