How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

21 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

This has come up in other threads in other contexts, but I suspect in hindsight Donn Starry's claims about force ratios will prove to be accurate. Within the 3:1-1:3 bracket force ratios dont matter much, individual actions and tactical decisions on the spot are more important. I wouldn't be surprised if we hear stories in the next few months of a half dozen Zvika Greengolds who held the pass against Russian attacks. If that Twitter thread about fragmented Russian BCT operations is accurate, it seems to me like most of these units are going in without proper support and without an overwhelming numerical advantage. Two Ukrainian platoons would probably place them within the 3:1 ratio against a Coy (+) element of a BCT. 

The battle of Kiev will start soon. Than the massacre really starts. Let's hope it will be Putins Stalingrad. Hopefully the dutch Stingers will arrive on time to down as many Russian helicopters and jets as possible. 

Make them pay, Ukraine!

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Is he denying that they knew they were in Ukraine?  

 

No, he says "My task was to drive along UKR border. Why for you came to Ukraine? I don't know... Why for you shelled all around? I don't know...."

He is from 35th motor-rifle brigade, captain, Aleysk town, Altay, Central military district

[Battlefront.com]

Russian fuel problems is probably both strategic and tactical in nature.  First, the Russians have never been good at logistics.  Not in WW2, not since.  This was the #1 lesson Russia learned from its invasion of Georgia.  But change is very difficult, slow, and extremely expensive.  An autocrat doesn't intimidate his neighbors by driving a bunch of well organized fuel trucks around, so instead the money goes into tanks and other things with logistics bringing up the rear (pun intended!).

Tactically, even if the fuel is available it isn't easy to get it to where it needs to be when it is needed.  Timing is critically important.  If a tactical element needs fuel it needs it right then and there.  Not in a half hour or hour.  Momentum is lost, positions can be lost, enemy can strike back, etc.

If the tactical element doesn't know where it is, that's a problem.  If the logistics tail doesn't know where its tactical units are, that's a problem.  If one doesn't know how to connect with the other, that's a problem.  If a necessary route is blocked unexpectedly, that's a problem.  If the logistics get attacked, that's a problem.  If the logistics get to where they are needed, but the tactical unit moved across terrain trucks can't cross, that's a problem.  And a hundred other circumstances.

What I'm saying here is that at the strategic level there's inherent deficiencies which sets up conditions for failure at the tactical level even under training situations.  In a real battle environment, little things often mean big things.

I doubt there is no one thing causing the Russians problems.  It's a combination of all of the above resulting in the same observable outcome.

Steve

[Phantom Captain]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No, he says "My task was to drive along UKR border. Why for you came to Ukraine? I don't know... Why for you shelled all around? I don't know...."

He is from 35th motor-rifle brigade, captain, Aleysk town, Altay, Central military district

Disgusting and unreal.  Thank you for translating.  What is the crying Russian soldier saying in the other video?

[BeondTheGrave]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Currently the Ukrainians are estimating they've caused about 3000 KIA Russians.  This could be inflated, could actually be an under count.  Let's assume it is off by a factor of 2 and they have only killed 1500.  Roughly speaking, one can expect 3-4 times that number wounded.  Going with 3, that means about 4500 wounded.  Ad to the 1500 KIA and you have 6000, which is half way to the 12,000 tipping point.

TASS reported (in a now deleted tweet) the following casualty figures:

• 14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
• 8 helicopters
• 102 tanks
• 536 armored cars and APCs
• 15 artillery pieces
• 1 Buk air defense system
• 3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

If reported by the Russian state at all, I would suspect those numbers to be deflated and sanitized for public release. Own side always under reports casualties during hostilities if they can. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No, he says "My task was to drive along UKR border. Why for you came to Ukraine? I don't know... Why for you shelled all around? I don't know...."

He is from 35th motor-rifle brigade, captain, Aleysk town, Altay, Central military district

When regular Russian units invaded Ukraine in 2014 we heard the same thing from many of those captured and also from those who returned to Russia.  We've seen lots of this with captured Russians so far. 

Probably in part for OPSEC reasons, it seems Russia keeps the grunts in the dark about where they are going.  I also think that regular Russian troops had no more belief they would invade Ukraine than Ukrainians.  So yeah, they are a bit dumbstruck when they find themselves being shot at or being order to shoot at someone.

Steve

[akd]

1 minute ago, BeondTheGrave said:

TASS reported (in a now deleted tweet) the following casualty figures:

• 14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
• 8 helicopters
• 102 tanks
• 536 armored cars and APCs
• 15 artillery pieces
• 1 Buk air defense system
• 3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

If reported by the Russian state at all, I would suspect those numbers to be deflated and sanitized for public release. Own side always under reports casualties during hostilities if they can. 

Probably a hack.  Appears to be direct copy of Ukrainian claims.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

TASS reported (in a now deleted tweet) the following casualty figures:

• 14 aircraft (13 attackers (SU-25 and other CAS) and 1 IL-76)
• 8 helicopters
• 102 tanks
• 536 armored cars and APCs
• 15 artillery pieces
• 1 Buk air defense system
• 3500 soldiers (dead, captured, wounded)

If reported by the Russian state at all, I would suspect those numbers to be deflated and sanitized for public release. Own side always under reports casualties during hostilities if they can. 

Those numbers almost certainly came from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.  It's even in the same format as what they use.

Not surprised TASS pulled down the repost.  I'm guessing there's someone in the news business looking for a new job today.

(Ninja'd by AKD!)

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

Even Germany is going to send weapons. 

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First, the Russians have never been good at logistics.  Not in WW2, not since. 

Yet in WW2, the Russians were able to push back the Germans all the way from Moscow to Berlin (1608 km!). In a war that lasted years. In an age without GPS, even radio in many cases. Now, they can't even keep their trucks fuelled for three days just outside their border?

I'm not sure what I'm most shocked about... that they would attack in the first place, or their lack of competence once they did so.

[Battlefront.com]

Speaking of hacks... Ukrainian music is playing on Russian TV channels:

https://inforesist-org.translate.goog/leg-sajt-roskomnadzora-na-kanalah-rf-igraet-ukrainskaya-muzyka/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

(Translated for us Cyrillic Challenged Westerners!)

Steve

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Phantom Captain said:

Disgusting and unreal.  Thank you for translating.  What is the crying Russian soldier saying in the other video?

Nothing. The locals just scold him

[Haiduk]

UKR troops blew up all railroad nodes, which communicate Ukranian and Russian railroads. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Even Germany is going to send weapons. 

Not really. They only allow the Netherlands to hand over 300 Panzerfausts out of german production to Ukraine.

[borg]

Germany lifts block on sending weapons to Ukraine

Damian McGuiness

BBC News in Berlin

Germany has dropped its block on the delivery of German-made lethal weapons to Ukraine via third countries. 

The move means the Netherlands will be able to send German 400 rocket-propelled grenade launchers to Ukraine. 

It marks a major shift in German policy and could allow an increase of European military assistance to Ukraine as many weapons in Europe are at least partly German-manufactured, which means Berlin has a say on their use and export.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly referred to this policy in recent weeks when refusing to deliver lethal weapons to Ukraine.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Not really. They only allow the Netherlands to hand over 300 Panzerfausts out of german production to Ukraine.

Same difference. Germany is using us to send them. What's wrong with you Germans anyway? 

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Not really. They only allow the Netherlands to hand over 300 Panzerfausts out of german production to Ukraine.

What a strange thought, that German Panzerfausts will once again be fired in Ukraine.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yet in WW2, the Russians were able to push back the Germans all the way from Moscow to Berlin (1608 km!). In a war that lasted years. In an age without GPS, even radio in many cases. Now, they can't even keep their trucks fuelled for three days just outside their border?

I'm not sure what I'm most shocked about... that they would attack in the first place, or their lack of competence once they did so.

Yes, Soviet operational capabilities by the end of WW2 were indeed very impressive.  But everything was on a much larger scale.  And if a company sized force of T-34/85s ran out of fuel, would it even be noticed?

In WW2 the Soviets could pause for a half a day and refuel/reequip while another one took its place.  Entire battalions would be taken offline at one time.  Much easier to find a battalion than a platoon!

Contemporary warfare is now much smaller in scale and faster in pace.  Precision and speed matter a lot more than back in WW2.

Steve

[db_zero]

I saw another video where a out of gas AFV crew stranded on a road was asked where are you going and the response was "we don't know"

So much has been made of the "New and Improved Russian Army"

Does anyone know if enlisted men know how to read a map, use GPS? Are any NCO's or enlisted men even issued maps or GPS in the new Russian army?

 

Or is this still the old school Russian army where only officers have a general idea of what going on?

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

What a strange thought, that German Panzerfausts will once again be fired in Ukraine.

But this time they are fired for the freedom of Ukraine. Big difference!

Let's hope they arrive on time.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russian fuel problems is probably both strategic and tactical in nature.  First, the Russians have never been good at logistics.  Not in WW2, not since.  This was the #1 lesson Russia learned from its invasion of Georgia.  But change is very difficult, slow, and extremely expensive.  An autocrat doesn't intimidate his neighbors by driving a bunch of well organized fuel trucks around, so instead the money goes into tanks and other things with logistics bringing up the rear (pun intended!).

Tactically, even if the fuel is available it isn't easy to get it to where it needs to be when it is needed.  Timing is critically important.  If a tactical element needs fuel it needs it right then and there.  Not in a half hour or hour.  Momentum is lost, positions can be lost, enemy can strike back, etc.

If the tactical element doesn't know where it is, that's a problem.  If the logistics tail doesn't know where its tactical units are, that's a problem.  If one doesn't know how to connect with the other, that's a problem.  If a necessary route is blocked unexpectedly, that's a problem.  If the logistics get attacked, that's a problem.  If the logistics get to where they are needed, but the tactical unit moved across terrain trucks can't cross, that's a problem.  And a hundred other circumstances.

What I'm saying here is that at the strategic level there's inherent deficiencies which sets up conditions for failure at the tactical level even under training situations.  In a real battle environment, little things often mean big things.

I doubt there is no one thing causing the Russians problems.  It's a combination of all of the above resulting in the same observable outcome.

Steve

Add to this the fact that we really are not talking really long LOCs yet.  Based on the open source maps I can only see about 100km of penetration.  In order to take central Ukraine you are talking 3-4 times that distance in what seems to be pretty hostile territory.

I am honestly starting to think that the whole Russian plan was a 48-72 push to Kyiv, take capital and the Ukrainians surrender.  Tactical formations all carry about 3-4 DOS after that operational level needs to be clicking and at least in these isolated cases it appear to not be.  Now the Russians may be doubling down on success letting the "weak and failed" go without but that is high risk, if for the only reason the whole world is watching Russian units caught with their pants down.

Speaking of which, how/why does Ukraine still have internet and phone?

[TheVulture]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yet in WW2, the Russians were able to push back the Germans all the way from Moscow to Berlin (1608 km!). In a war that lasted years. In an age without GPS, even radio in many cases. Now, they can't even keep their trucks fuelled for three days just outside their border?

I'm not sure what I'm most shocked about... that they would attack in the first place, or their lack of competence once they did so.

In WWII the red army had several years of learning on the job (with Darwinian consequences),  so the people organising the logistics  had a lot of experience of exactly what was involved in maintaining combat efforts in the friction of war. 

And on average they were only moving a few km a day,  with a whole economy mobilised to support the effort. 

Today's logistics staff may have done this stuff on paper,  but how much experience do they have of doing it under real combat conditions. And possibly with inadequate stock piles in the first place.  And mechanised units able to move a hundred km or more in a day. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, Soviet operational capabilities by the end of WW2 were indeed very impressive.  But everything was on a much larger scale.  And if a company sized force of T-34/85s ran out of fuel, would it even be noticed?

In WW2 the Soviets could pause for a half a day and refuel/reequip while another one took its place.  Entire battalions would be taken offline at one time.  Much easier to find a battalion than a platoon!

Contemporary warfare is now much smaller in scale and faster in pace.  Precision and speed matter a lot more than back in WW2.

Steve

And they had 500.000 US trucks from Lend Lease.

[BeondTheGrave]

 

Quote

The Russian occupiers are throwing equipment away en masse. They run out of fuel, food, increased FEAR. WELCOME TO HELL !!! LET'S WIN TOGETHER! BEAT THE OCCUPIER!

The big surprise in all this is just how many MTLBs I have been seeing. I mean I guess theres nothing wrong with it per say, why get rid of them. But on the other hand thats some classic 1950s tech getting thrown in all over the place. 

[db_zero]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Speaking of which, how/why does Ukraine still have internet and phone?

Unless the Russians start jamming or knocking out satellites, cell towers and making sure all land lines are cut you'll be able to send and receive communication.

Or maybe someone didn't think of it

Also keep in mind cyber and information warfare is part of Russia's strategy so they need it as much as Ukraine.

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero