THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM

[Sublime]

18 hours ago, sburke said:

when dumbasses lead the charge

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/dr-oz-now-says-covid-154850565.html

We waste a lot of time and end up back where we should have started - with the guy who actually knows something.

On Wednesday’s Fox & Friends, Oz said, “I think there is so much data coming from so many places, we are better off waiting for the randomized trials Dr. Fauci has been asking for. Otherwise, we keep reacting back and forth for studies that show an opposite result.”

no I didnt mean someone pro 2nd amendment. you know exactly the type. the ones saying walmart garden centers are fema holding cells made for when they take ARS the types who formed militias, post online they hope for a civil war, helped the oregon gop evade arrest..

same extremeists with other groups

and yes antifa et al make the left look bad

BUT trump will refuse to disavow white supremacists. the left WILL disavow antifa

[kevinkin]

9 hours ago, 37mm said:

Why do UK citizens get 80% of their salary paid whilst you lot get a measly $1200 tax rebate thing?

Sorry for the delay ... crazy morning. We don't qualify for the $1200 stimulus money. I heard it helps to a degree. More to pay bills than simulate anything. In my state they have grace periods on certain utilities and insurance. That helps to a point. Do you know the name of the 80% program in the UK? It's intriguing to me; how it's financed. We have payroll deductions in the US to pay for unemployment insurance that pays for a set period of time which can be extended under emergency situations. It's at the state level i.e. not a national program. There is a large number who work in jobs where deductions are not made however. Not sure how much it pays. It might pay 80% up to a certain limit e.g. not 80% on an income of a million. 

Kevin

Edit: was interested and in NJ the max benefit would be 80% of a annual income of 42K USD. The average income in NJ is 80K USD. So that amounts to 43% at that income level. Is that comparable to the one set up in the UK? It must be capped to some degree.  

Edited April 24, 2020 by kevinkin

[37mm]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

We don't qualify for the $1200 stimulus money. I heard it helps to a degree.

This is the real issue... your Government is asking you to stay at home but not providing you the means to do so.

"Do you know the name of the 80% program in the UK? It's intriguing to me; how it's financed."

No idea about jargon or terminology... I imagine it's "financed" like every other government program... by someone typing a few zero's & pressing enter.

Serious question: When a bank or a mega-corporation asks for (and inevitably recieves) a bail-out, do you think they ever ask themselves or care how it is "financed"?

 

@sburke

Forgive my "cut the Gordian knot" style... I have little spare time myself & forget many of you are probably bored.

It is true you did not explicitly advocate against a bail out for the people... however I think if someone is (justifiably) worried about the economy then they may respond better to a direct discussion on that topic.

 

PS

I'm not prepared to discuss scenes from some TV movie about North Korea I haven't seen... but I imagine the movie doesn't really change the real life facts.

 

[sburke]

33 minutes ago, 37mm said:

Forgive my "cut the Gordian knot" style... I have little spare time myself & forget many of you are probably bored.

It is true you did not explicitly advocate against a bail out for the people... however I think if someone is (justifiably) worried about the economy then they may respond better to a direct discussion on that topic.

 

PS

I'm not prepared to discuss scenes from some TV movie about North Korea I haven't seen... but I imagine the movie doesn't really change the real life facts.

Just a quip, no movie I know of.  Was just recalling his shooting his Uncle with an AA gun.  Bored no.  Just didn't quite get the gist of where you were going.  My fault not yours.  I am taking a day off work and still hadn't had coffee.  

Regarding "stimulus" money etc.  It is weird here admittedly.  The $1200 doesn't go far depending on where you live and of course that is not adjusted by area.  In my area that won't cover 2 weeks of rent for a 2 bedroom apt.  In my view that is a sop from our political leaders (dem and rep) that is like bread given out in the Roman forum.  We do have a program as Kevin noted for unemployment which can help more.  Compensation levels vary though and the systems are utterly clogged with the sheer volume of folks applying. In addition depending on your occupation and self employment status you may not even be eligible. And that doesn't even scratch the health care issue where Trump refused to reopen sign up for Affordable Care Act programs.   Americans in general suffer from the lack of a safety net and during something like this it becomes even more evident than usual.  Many folks in the lower income brackets are still digging out from the 2008 financial crisis.  I was reading an article a few days ago on a town in West VA. Lot of different individual stories but one in particular stuck with me. This guy is getting laid off and they are cutting off his healthcare at the end of the month and said if he pays $299 he can extend his healthcare another month.  The poor guy doesn't have it.  This isn't some 19 year old worker flipping burgers at McDonalds. I have worked all my life gradually acquiring skills, moving both physically around the country and between jobs.  When I was 25 I was a bike courier in Wash DC.  Even then coming up with $299 was not beyond my reach.  Right now I am pretty secure.  I can't imagine what that guy is going through and he is just one case among millions.

Unfortunately our political craziness intrudes even into this arena where Trump is complaining about supporting the blue states and McConnell is advocating letting states go bankrupt (which isn't even allowed by law).  McConnell is now complaining about the debt level when they didn't express the slightest concern about debt when they gave that huge tax break for the wealthy.  I am not optimistic about a quick turn around in business.  Even if the virus disappeared tomorrow, our economy isn't going to jump start.  Folks have acquired debt and are not going to be in a spending mood.  Without that consumer spending drive there is no way we are going back to Feb. And that doesn't even touch on the oil market collapse.  People are not going to just start traveling at previous levels.  My company does an extreme amount of traveling and the discussions we have are about how do we take the lessons of this experience and try to apply them after- in other words how to we continue to do business and not travel so much.  That decision has a knock on affect in the airline and hotel industry.  Tourism will take time to recover, lord knows if the cruise ship business even will.   Fauci and the CDC are both talking about the second wave to come.  That isn't hype just a normal aspect of flu season with a deadlier virus with no vaccine yet.

We need a long haul plan to lift the economy back.  Maybe that can be worked on in an infrastructure program we so badly need.  In the meantime we need some kind of financial safety net and we need to secure the healthcare system. I don't think anyone yet has an answer on that.  We need a financial package and we need one that makes sense.  Right now I feel like they are just throwing buckets of money at the problem without really making sure it is targeted to provide the most relief to those who really need it.

How long do you think the UK can sustain your 80% salaries?

[37mm]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

How long do you think the UK can sustain your 80% salaries?

Presumably as long as they can find someone to keep typing the zero's... heck they could train a dog to do it (they're immune right?).

The lockdowns obviously won't last forever but our governments, OUR governments, should provide us enough of OUR money to tide us over.

They have no problem bailing out their penthouse friends (again and again and again and again)... why not us for a change?

I understand our lives are not as valuable... but feel they should at least try to avoid rubbing our faces in that fact.

[Erwin]

23 minutes ago, 37mm said:

They have no problem bailing out their penthouse friends (again and again and again and again)... why not us for a change?

+1   At least this time the money seems aimed at Main St rather than Wall Street aholes (altho' none of the journalists has asked if there are any banking fees for servicing all this).  Also, as mentioned previously how many businesses with more than 500 employees have cut the excess workforce to qualify for the money?  

And we all know that it is easy for the mint to simply print more money.  So long as all countries are doing that, no problem!  

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, 37mm said:

This is the real issue... your Government is asking you to stay at home but not providing you the means to do so.

No, we have the means to stay home and survive with food, heat and hot water etc. through various public programs. But the funding has a finite limit. I was just curious how generous the programs are in the UK. Just so you know in the US "Married couples with no children earning $150,000 or less will receive a total of $2,400."  They get less and less as their family income increases. As was said above, the payments were not adjusted for the cost of living where you live nor how your income has changed in the first quarter of 2020 vs 2018 or 2019. It is worth a lot more in West Virginia than in high cost city like LA. Someone in Washington came up with the one size fits all $150,000 figure and $2,400. I have not seen it explained. Pretty sure it was based on some metric and they wanted to get it out fast rather than taylor it to exact family situations which would be more complicated and time consuming to implement. 

Kevin 

Edited April 24, 2020 by kevinkin

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Erwin said:

And we all know that it is easy for the mint to simply print more money.  So long as all countries are doing that, no problem!  

Honey, I need to go buy a loaf of bread, where is the wheel barrow wallet?  

[kevinkin]

12 hours ago, Holien said:

I think we can all agree that is if no lockdown was put in place there would be more deaths than has been the case? Do you agree with that Kevinkin?

Sorry for the delay since you are asking a question for the history books. Just a crazy day for us. 

Are you asking if the possibility of saving one life worth job losses now over 20 million in the US? Is one life worth thousands of new business owner's dreams ruined. I think the answer is no. But then the question becomes how many lives saved would justify that magnitude of job losses and impact on the economy? I don't think we will see a Gallup poll on that question since the question touches a raw nerve. But I could see state referendums if this goes into the summer. Referendums on opening up and to what degree. There is no easy answer since it involves how a life is defined and how it's valued. Does a father jump into a rip tide to save an unknown senior risking his own life downing and then not being able to provide for his family for the next 25 years? Would you expect the same father to swim the rip tide to feed his family. Yes. The situation we face is not the same as that, but similar. And magnified a billion times. Many moms and dads are looking at their kids across the table and know they are their primary responsibility. With just enough government money coming in to live on, their kids future looks bleak. Deaths in New York are pretty vague to someone in rural America where the chance of dying is extremely low. This is a cruel situation. It pits the haves vs the have nots; rural vs urban; young vs old; public vs private. I even heard domestic violence calls to 911 are up. 

Technically, I question the efficacy of closing America 100% except in high density areas. We have been told that distancing and masks are good enough to go to the food store or Home Depot. Gee the liquor stores never had it so good. How about the same practices in furniture stores, a car wash and (dare I say) a barber shop? I think our states should look at their local situation and open up their economies with safeguards in place. We need to learn what society can do safely and not do safely while the virus runs through the population. We can’t do this by sitting on the couch day in and day out. I would like to get this process started ASAP state by state. The virus has to run through the population eventually. Our southern states are trailblazers and I really hope they are successful. I think we all do. Testing and tracing is coming on line. We will never know what volume is sufficient if we don’t open up to some degree in select areas. It’s a judgment call and will always be based on incomplete information. We can’t wait for every piece of the puzzle to come together. If we don’t start to open up the world’s economy soon, there will be nothing left to live for anyway. Looks like the curve is flat in New York. As Todd Beamer said on 9-11: "Are you ready? Okay. Let's roll."

Kevin

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by kevinkin

[sburke]

Have to admit I have this vision of Edward Scissorhands for the barber shop.  I have no idea how one manages safe social distancing there.

[kevinkin]

21 hours ago, sburke said:

Read that last line again.   I'll spell it out.  There is nothing to say that the 13.9% or 212% are folks who have developed immunity.

The purpose of the post was to highlight the encouraging news on the mortality rate. The build-up of anti-bodies and subsequent immunity is related to the problem we face for sure.  But let's not detract from the lower mortality rate that is now, according the epicenter's lead elected official, an order of magnitude lower than previously thought. If this is not good news what is? More good news is the Comfort is setting sail and the Javits center of closing ops at the end of May.

Kevin

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/04/23/navy-comfort-westchester-county-center-coronavirus/3010754001/

https://wcbs880.radio.com/articles/news/usns-comfort-to-leave-nyc-javits-center-hospital-closing

[kevinkin]

34 minutes ago, sburke said:

I have no idea how one manages safe social distancing there.

Well distancing, hand washing and masks have been a part of modern surgery for a long time now. In my state, barber shops are inspected for hygiene and their business licence will be taken away upon a failed inspection. I very much doubt even a complex lobotomy would pass the China virus to the next chair if the rules are followed. I had an early theory that lock downs will end when enough women can't get their hair colored. I still stand by that. 

Kevin

Edited April 25, 2020 by kevinkin

[sburke]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Well distancing, hand washing and masks have been a part of modern surgery for a long time now. In my state, barber shops are inspected for hygiene and their business licence will be taken away upon a failed inspection. I very much doubt even a complex lobotomy would pass the China virus to the next chair if the rules are followed. I had an early theory that lock downs will end when enough women can't get their hair colored. I still stand by that. 

Kevin

Umm.... yeah I know I should just walk away from this one, but I just can't.  

The doctors and nurses working around people possibly infected with a virus tend to wear N95 masks, not just your standard garden variety mask we wear to the grocery store.  In fact there are nurses fighting with hospitals now about being asked to work without proper gear, but somehow a beautician wearing a standard mask and working with multiple people all day long in close contact is okay.  Apparently the Gov in Georgia agrees with you about what constitutes an essential service. 

All I can say is best of luck to those folks and I wish them well.

[kevinkin]

I wish them well too. If both the client and beautician and the entire shop are practicing proper hygiene and wearing masks of any type, there is little chance of cross contamination. If there is significant contamination under those conditions we need to know yesterday. We need to know how to deal with the China virus, it's going to be with us a long while. In the end, everyone is going to contact the virus. We are just trying to slow the rate of contact. The wife and I came down with symptoms just after the New Year. Yep, we were in NYC to shop and see the Christmas tree at Rockefeller just 2 weeks before. I am pretty sure it was not the China virus due to the overall timing detailed in the news. But they are starting to push back the entry date into the US via nucleotide testing. We are curious and will get tested for antibodies. If we don't have them I hope we get infected soon to get the whole thing over with. We still have corticosteroid left over from January. Good to go. 

Kevin

[sburke]

Well there actually is significant chance of contamination which is why they are recommending 6 feet for social distance and we knew that not just yesterday but for the past 2 months.  It has been hyped all over the news over and over and over.  This is where my concern originates.  The masks help but only so much.  The distance is a critical part of that equation. 

The timing of the virus and arrival in US is still unknown, getting checked seems sensible.  The first death now appears to have been in Santa Clara county (my freakin county) Feb 6th - 3 weeks before the Wash State deaths.  This may be the oddest feeling thing I have ever wished anyone but (assuming having had the infection does mean immunity) I hope you had it as well.  If both things turn out to be true I may even call you a lucky lucky bastard

 

[kevinkin]

Masks are ordered in some states when 6 feet can't be avoided like in food stores and Home Depot. And now in a few states in salons. Seems to me you want to give the public the opportunity to have their hair done in a controlled situation regulated by the board of health. By people who are inspected and have that little certificate on the wall. Otherwise speakeasy salons are going to pop up all over having no controls other than a bit of common sense. BTW, in NJ they have popped up. Vanity is a powerful thing. There is no way that many women (and some men) are going to put up with unprofessional grooming for months. It is not practical. We have to learn how to provide that service safely in a way that keeps the infection rate to a manageable level within the context of the local health care's capabilities. One reason liquor stores are open is to prevent unregulated speakeasy formation where no guidelines would be practiced. This is not about opening the LA coliseum. It's a short on on one interaction with masks on. If that's going to kill us let's party like it's 1999. 

Kevin

[37mm]

10 hours ago, kevinkin said:

But the funding has a finite limit.

Probably... but that rarely seems to detract Banks or mega-corporations. The Fed has purchased one and a half trillion dollars worth of stocket assets already (and, obviously, will purchase a lot more)... it seems to me that some small business relief would be far less than that.

As an aside I always find it odd how people only become "Fiscally Conservative" when discussing helping the middle/working class.

 

As to the "wheelbarrows of doom", no-one is advocating that a foreign power defeats the US in a war & steals the US gold reserves... well okay some are... but very few.

 

Either way, somebody has to unlock their country first & conduct a mass-experiment with re-infection & viral loads & HIV-like spikes and mysterious strokes/heart attacks & all the other stuff we don't understand yet.

If the US wants to do that first... I'm kinda okay with that (at the very least it appears the US strain is less dangerous the European one).

 

Edited April 25, 2020 by 37mm

[Holien]

Ultimately I  think we can open up when everyone has one of these to wear

https://www.uhs.nhs.uk/AboutTheTrust/Newsandpublications/Latestnews/2020/April/Hospital-trust-becomes-first-to-introduce-pioneering-respirator-hoods-for-staff-treating-coronavirus-patients.aspx

I can see the new norm with factories and work places giving staff these hoods.

That or testing is sorted so we know if we are infectious or not.

Until then it will continue to spread and kill. 

[akd]

On 4/23/2020 at 7:19 PM, Erwin said:

The point is that the vast majority of voters are not in those categories but are regular folks.  Denigrating them is one way of guaranteeing that they will vote for Trump. 

Hmmm...  Maybe the folks who denigrate are part of the secret 5th column of Trump supporters?    Never mind then...  

 

And regular Republicans in Wisconsin now believe that the Civil War was about states rights.

Quote

"Ok folks, I implore you, please leave Confederate flags and/or AR15s, AK47s, or any other long guns at home," Brian Westrate wrote in a private Facebook group, The New York Times reported. "I well understand that the Confederacy was more about states rights than slavery. But that does not change the truth of how we should try to control the optics during the event."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/politics/wisconsin-coronavirus-protests.html

[z1812]

I have been reading a fair bit about the 1918 pandemic concerning social distancing, and the economy. I eventually read the following article that seemed to sum up most of what I had read.

The paragraph in italics below is the last in the article but I suggest you read the full article, link below.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/31/21199874/coronavirus-spanish-flu-social-distancing

VSL ( the value of a statistical life ) is sometimes attacked from the left as craven, a reductio ad absurdum of economistic reasoning trampling over everything, including the value of human life itself. But coronavirus helps illustrate how VSL can work in the opposite direction. Human life is so valuable in these terms that social distancing would have to force a 33 percent drop in US GDP before you could start to plausibly argue that the cure is worse than the disease. That social distancing likely won’t cause a reduction in GDP relative to a scenario where there’s a multimillion-person death toll, as indicated by the 1918 flu paper, makes the case for distancing policies that much stronger.

I was thinking that considering the 1918 pandemic lasted 3 years, taking us to 1921, the Stock Market crash was only 8 years later. It has me wondering what the link may be, if there is any, from one to the other. 

[Holien]

1 hour ago, akd said:

And regular Republicans in Wisconsin now believe that the Civil War was about states rights.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/us/politics/wisconsin-coronavirus-protests.html

Thanks AKD reading that article now starts to make sense in how the Virus is being weaponised in the American Election.

Link the democrats to the stay at home orders and they become the bad cop that  the Republican supporters can turn against, they generate mass support because people have lost jobs so drag in a wider support base...

The Democrats ruined the economy, the Republicans would have saved the economy but ohh those evil Democrats want to destroy your freedom to infect folk...

Joy....

And there I was thinking it was about saving lives and based upon past experience then protecting the economy as you have more people alive to generate and create the economy.

[para]

8 hours ago, 37mm said:

Probably... but that rarely seems to detract Banks or mega-corporations. The Fed has purchased one and a half trillion dollars worth of stocket assets already (and, obviously, will purchase a lot more)... it seems to me that some small business relief would be far less than that.

As an aside I always find it odd how people only become "Fiscally Conservative" when discussing helping the middle/working class.

 

As to the "wheelbarrows of doom", no-one is advocating that a foreign power defeats the US in a war & steals the US gold reserves... well okay some are... but very few.

 

Either way, somebody has to unlock their country first & conduct a mass-experiment with re-infection & viral loads & HIV-like spikes and mysterious strokes/heart attacks & all the other stuff we don't understand yet.

If the US wants to do that first... I'm kinda okay with that (at the very least it appears the US strain is less dangerous the European one).

 

Yeah im all for the US being the world's guinae pig and so would Trump and his cohorts.

Edited April 25, 2020 by para

[sburke]

2 hours ago, z1812 said:

I was thinking that considering the 1918 pandemic lasted 3 years, taking us to 1921, the Stock Market crash was only 8 years later. It has me wondering what the link may be, if there is any, from one to the other. 

not much if any.  Crashes were a regular cyclical thing back in the late 1800s early 1900s 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_economic_crises

This is at root the basis of calls for regulation. Business at heart is generally about balancing risk.  Unfortunately the more money at stake and the risks go up.  Put some people in control of that risk who have a vested interest in not being transparent and you set the whole house of cards in motion. 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/singapores-oil-traders-at-risk-of-collapse/

[sburke]

1 hour ago, para said:

Yeah im all for the US being the world's guinae pig and so would Trump and his cohorts.

Well apparently we are going to be and it seems the logic is based on fear of an underground movement of speakeasy hair salons.  of all things.....  there simply are no words.  I think I'll go gargle some disinfectant and shove a UV light up my arse.  Science is dead.

[SimpleSimon]

The issue is that US food production is in danger of price explosions and localized shortages which will, literally and immediately, place lower income families in mortal danger. That the US is apparently unable to make use of the rationing and control mechanisms of 1941-45 to me anymore is parts amusing and other parts humiliating. We're literally just unable to deal with anything in this country because the last 30 years of stealth austerity has totally disarmed any capability of widespread crisis response. It's a free-for-all of state governments saddled with enormous demobilized work forces cueing up on food bank lines while other states literally have farmers dumping milk down the drain and slaughtering animals because they can't reach markets for their produce. Someone hook FDR up to a generator because I bet he's turning in his grave so fast right now you'd need a tachometer, he could power a city.