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Bearstronaut

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  1. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  2. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  3. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  4. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  5. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Yet in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  6. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Look at me" has been the main preoccupation of NK foreign policy for 60+ years. I don't see any alteration to the strategic situation that would change that barring mental illness on Kim's part. Even if Trump gets back in the WH, I wouldn't rate their chances.   
  7. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. 
    The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. 
    Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. 
    KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 
  8. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in Survey for future BattlePack projects   
    Maybe something to do with German counterattacks on OP Market-Garden? I know there is already a German campaign for MG but it's probably my least favorite of all the WW2 campaigns. 
    PS: I know you said no Italian campaign but I really wish someone would do campaigns for the Canadians, French, New Zealanders, and Brazilians. 
  9. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from pintere in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    How about far future? I wanna play Combat Mission: BattleTech.
  10. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from fry30 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm strongly leaning towards the latter. He seems mightily invested in pushing the "bow down before the might of the unstoppable Russian bear" line.
  11. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to Thewood1 in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    The comments about terrain are way over generalized as is the concept of battles in the Pacific and Korea.  Korea is mostly hilly open terrain, with a few areas of dense forests.  Korea was all about hills, rivers, and urban fighting.  The Pacific as a combat theater had a lot of non-jungle combat.  In fact, some of the largest US Army urban battles of WW2 were fought in more urban environments around Manila.  A large number of the island battles for the USMC were not in densely forested jungles.  The British fought large battles in Burma in urban and built up areas.  The Hurtgen forest and the Ardennes can be handled in CM so I would imagine it could handle jungles in a similar more abstracted fashion.
    If we could just combine units from Downfall with Red Thunder, you could do the majority of Korean battles today.
  12. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm strongly leaning towards the latter. He seems mightily invested in pushing the "bow down before the might of the unstoppable Russian bear" line.
  13. Upvote
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The French are a nuclear power. Even if all your doomsaying is correct and Europeans are woefully incapable of defeating the mighty Russian bear in a conventional conflict, there is no ****ing way the Russians are getting anywhere near the channel.
  14. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Blazing 88's in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm strongly leaning towards the latter. He seems mightily invested in pushing the "bow down before the might of the unstoppable Russian bear" line.
  15. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hopefully we'll get another person of reason and sound judgement who also thinks earth is 6000 years, amongst the many wise beliefs of mike johnston.  But maybe we'll get an improvement as the current speaker is somewhat flawed as he thinks the earth is round and goes around the sun.  
    American taliban.  
  16. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    How about far future? I wanna play Combat Mission: BattleTech.
  17. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Centurian52 in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    I doubt they'll ever do anything with equipment that doesn't already exist at the time of development, or at least isn't near enough over the horizon to have a good idea of its characteristics. That being said, that doesn't mean they won't eventually deliver some far-future content (from our current perspective). All we need is for them to still be around in the far future. They've managed to stick around for 25 years already, so what's another hundred? I'm sure the 2124 new year's bones thread will announce some exciting content!
  18. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to keas66 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You are clearly either delusional or this is just a deliberate campaign of mis- information - I'll be blocking you going forwards .
  19. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Gkenny in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    Now that we have so much late WW2 equipment, It doesn't seem so impossible that a CM Korean war title could be announced. Definitely has not been beaten to death and with the amount of nations that participated it could have quite the variety!
  20. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    🤣  yep any day now!
  21. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The generous response to this would be 'you are reading too much into the article - that's not what it says'.  In the UK we have a less generous, single-word response that I think is probably more appropriate, though.
     
    Fixed that for you.
     
    You do seem to spend a lot of your time intentionally 'interpreting' what people write in order to fit your 'all is lost' narrative.
    The point of the response you laughed off here was, I think, to ask what Ukraine's plan is?  For the first year or so, Ukraine were in panicky, dear-god-they're-invading-help-please-send-whatever-you-can mode.  Where is Ukraine now?  Two years in, what is Ukraine's strategy for winning this war?  Surely it's not to rely on free equipment sent in by foreign nations?  I mean, I think Ukraine can rely on US/EU providing as much support as they can (given the various other factors at play) but it would be idiotic to rely on that and make no other plans to defend your country, right?  Perhaps if we knew more from Ukraine about what they are trying to do then we could all offer more insightful opinions as to how the US/EU could help.
     
    Your apparent understanding of how Western European people think is frankly stunningly inaccurate.
    To be blunt, people in Western Europe don't give a solitary, flying **** about Russia.  They don't.  No-one talks about Russia, worries about Russia or even less considers Russia's strength when they go to the ballot box.  Ask people in the UK about Russia and they will talk about Salisbury, the World Cup and the ongoing war with Ukraine.  Some of them might remember 2014.  A few more will remember the Kursk tragedy because the Russians turned down British help to rescue the crew.  Beyond that it's probably all Yeltsin and pre-90s stuff.
    What you think seems to be a reflection of Russia's own internal propaganda line -  that the West spends all its time envying and plotting against the mighty Russian people.  It's just bollocks (oh, there we are - the one-word response made it into print after all).
  22. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Zeleban has had far more chances than he should have gotten in my opinion.  When someone openly admires NK, they belong in the outer darkness with the rest of the pro-Russian pushers we have had through here.
    I agree on your last point entirely.  The trick is defining what a Ukrainian MIC looks like.  If we assume they are producing MBTs and IFVs, then we are talking very large factories with complex supply chains that will be vulnerable...so why are we talking MBTs and IFVs?
    If Ukraine needs battlewagons or MRAPs that can still be done.  If they need UAS and ATGMs, a high tech MIC, that definitely can be done.  Small arms and ammo...again very doable.  Wean off western supply lines and Ukraine becomes far more resilient to western political turbulence.  Plan for a long war, because we are likely in one.
    This is going to have to be a gradual shift.  How this all got translated to "The US just declared abandon ship!!!  All is lost and it is all you faults!!!" is beyond me.
  23. Like
    Bearstronaut reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This.
    And this.  Just whose side are you on?
    Oh, wait I know this dance.  You are going to throw around Russian propaganda lines, anti-western sentiments, and general doom and gloom until Steve gets irritated.  Then you will post walls of translated useful stuff to take the heat off...wait a bit, and come back around for another pass.  You realize that is exactly the same Russia "useful idiot" tactic?
    So just to avoid all that for what must be the 5th or 6th time - your position in a nutshell:
    - All is lost.  Ukraine is losing its will to fight and will never get it back.  In fact they are going to gleefully switch sides after this war.
    - Russia is unstoppable and will roll on Poland and the Baltics once they are done with Ukraine.  With Ukrainian Divisions riding at the forefront.  And now you admire them for this...along with NK.
    - The US and West are weak and scared.  Our support is clearly plummeting (and with friends like you...) because we are not hopping too with another $100B by 4 Jan and several divisions of shiny new tanks, that will be turned into scrap metal in a few months anyway...because Ukrainian will etc (gets a little blurry here.)
    I was willing to write off the first few times as to war weariness but you are spending far too much effort and energy right now for someone who is burned out.
    So...whose side are you on exactly? 
  24. Like
    Bearstronaut got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
  25. Upvote
    Bearstronaut reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, to be extra fair, if you're referring to the Budapest Memorandum, no part of that sentence is accurate.
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