gnarly

Russians at the morning launched about 60 surface-surface and air-surface missiles on Ukrainian territory. This is one of largest missile attacks for the last time. Most heavy was an attack on Zhytomyr oblast - 30 missiles form Belarus territory (ground launchers and aviation). 10 of them were intercepted by AD, but other struck some military objects. On this time theris a report 1 servoceman KIA, 1 WIA. 
20 missiles struk training center Desna in Chernihiv oblast. Also form ground launchers and aviation. Reportedly no casualties for present time, but infrastructure was significantly damaged. Previous missle strike on Desna center on 17th of May killed 87 servicemen. All they were crews being trained for western 155mm artillery. After previous missile strikes on barracks, which took away several hundreds of lives high command ordered to disperse personnel no more 20 servicemen in one group. But in that day all re-trained artillerists gathered to receive sertificates and celebtrating this. They stayed in barrack just on one night and Iskander struck it. After this reportedly Desna officer in the rank of colonel was arrested by SBU, because he was a traitor and gave information to Russian side about gathering of personnel in the building. 
Also about dozen missiles, probably Kalibr, were launched at Yavoriv training and logistic center in L'viv oblast.  Four missiles were intercepted (two over Khmelnitskyi oblast, two over L'viv oblast) but several hit own targets.
 
 

Non-professional?!  Bil,..ouch.  Unpaid maybe.  There is a lot of professionals from a lot of fields here, it is what makes this whole thing work in my opinion.  That and "the professionals" really haven't done much better as far as I can tell...and I am being kind in some examples.

Found interesting attempt of LDNR volunteers to publish first version of drone manual. I roughly translated it so you can get a snippet at LDNR drone operations. AFAIK originally it was UKR tactics but LDNR learned them and adopted. BTW as you can see, they started an unofficial program of training RU regulars. In square brackets my own comments.
@Battlefront.com FYI
 

Let's not go too far down that track - as I recall the M-113 owning side came second in that conflict.

Popped up in one of my feeds: 
 
 

https://silodrome.com/ford-gpw/#:~:text=The SAS made use of,by a Browning machine gun.

Nah, not much more than virtue signaling, they can pretend to support Ukraine at the same time as pretending to be doing something about gun crime. Gun buy-backs in the U.S. don't accomplish much - mostly they get great-grandad's rusty old rifle and other non-functional stuff, occasionally they get blocks of wood that look like guns. Once in a while they get a nice collector piece. At best  a buy-back only brings in on the order of 100-200 weapons, probably no more than 20% of that would be of any use to Ukraine.

What is his relationship to your neigbours?

There isn't a scenario with that name, it's just that most CM players associate Tiger with the WWII German tank, not the modern day Russian Tigr.

My second map project in CM, with maybe a scenario to follow. I wanted to explore the failed Russian river crossing near Bilohorivka and ended up creating this map based on satellite imagery and the various images and videos of that event. 

 

 

 

 
Currently just quick battle maps with no AI plan, so HTH only. I'll try to update this with AI plans when I get a chance.
Fording the Siverskyi Donets QB HVH Red Probe.btt Fording the Siverskyi Donets QB HVH Blue Attack.btt

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx
 

Javelin launch on BMP-3
Time-lapse photo of Javelin launch

No, the equipment successfully intercepted the rounds before they could hit the ground 🤣

note incoming artillery rounds were intercepted by the ground and successfully "destroyed".  🤣

@sburke @Kinophile
Major Yuri Borisov, Deputy Battalion Commander (for Armament), naval infantry battalion, 155th Guards Separate Naval Infantry Brigade:
An odd anecdote about fighting along Irpin River in piece on his death:
 

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel
 

@sburke @Kinophile
Lt.colonel (retired) Dmitriy Savchenko. Veteran of SOBR special police, participated in wars in Chechnya and Dagestan. Last place of the service before retirement - UFSNK (Directorate of Federal Service of drugs control).
Likely was a member of volunteer unit.
 

The other thing we need to be careful of is seeing this through our own lenses.  I have no doubt the Ukrainian government published these dramatic numbers in order to reinforce their very real continued need for support; however, they may have misjudged the western reaction because we see this war through a very different lens.
The West has been human security focused for about 30 years - and this does not matter which side of the political house you are within - it is the natural evolution of highly powerful (and entitled) societies, to value the security of the person as the highest priority.  And even though human security is a key consideration within this war (e.g. war crimes, displacement, food security) it is not the key consideration.  [Oh dear, I can hear the collective shudder in some circles.]  Definitely for the Ukraine, and in a lot of way for the West this war is about collective existence and is therefore existential collective security focused in nature. 
We must avoid our own Western baggage with respect to casualties and war because the framework we use to make those assessments does not apply here.  This is the Old Red God - many hoped had fallen asleep forever, which was naïve wishful thinking.  He has woken up groggy and angry and decided on the old-school option to shake out the cobwebs.  Ukrainians taking 500 causalities per day may seem shocking when looking through a human security lens, which we then project into "Ukraine is losing...human tragedy...they should negotiate!  However, in the annals of warfare this is solid 5/10 of intensity (e.g Jul 1st 1916 - 57k UK casualties and on average 6k per day in WWI -  http://www.100letprve.si/en/world_war_1/casualties/index.html).  
Existential wars are on an entirely different level and as such we should not focus on "500 casualties per day" but instead on what those 500 troops are buying for their side.  Is Ukraine upside down in expenditure of people for what it is gaining losing...based on Russian speed of advance I have to go with a "no".  Now, Russia is likely losing more than 500 per day on the basis that it is still the attacker - is it upside down on its cost-to-benefits?  Much more likely.  And why it is trying desperately to have a lot of other people doing the dying besides actual Russian's right now.  Russian is losing at the same or worst rate and gaining literally feet of ground of seriously questionable operational value. 
Finally back to a central premise of mine - who is spending lives for options right now?  Who's option spaces remain sustained or expanding while the other side is in a losing equation?  The calculus of an existential war is absent of drama.  I have seen a lot of western media playing up the human drama in this war and it is counter-productive.  We can unpack the drama of this war for decades after it is over - this is about colder harder metrics where the value of a human life is only relative to what it is doing to your opponent.  What is chilling about all this is that this is one thing the Russian's already know, and we are just finding out.  Anyone think that Putin is having trouble sleeping at night right now?  If he is, it is not over the "good boys lost at Severodonetsk". 
We need to accept and understand that we, the West, are invested in killing Russians right now...in fact we are part of the kill-chain to do so and we cannot rationalize our way out of it.  We also need to become more cold blooded and objective focused and a less human security focused (obviously within reason) because the cost of this war is already high.  If we want to ensure that the 500 teenagers who die/hurt today did so for a good reason then it is on us to finish this thing on our terms, definitively.   
 

So there is: what happened, what is happening and what will happen.  Everyone is interested in the last one and never spend enough time on the first two.  In reality good analysis should focus primarily on the first two and they are incredibly hard enough to get right. 
Resolution gets exponentially worse as you move left to right on this components - this is why right now we can only really make lo-resolution predictions.  We can say "Normalization between Russia and the West will likely take a generation after this war" with a level of confidence but we cannot say exactly when the RA is going to collapse.
The problem with a war, particularly one like this is that all analysts have are assumptions at the beginning of it.  These assumptions become the foundational what happened that they build their entire framework upon.  Then they tend to ignore counter-factuals as outliers and select information that supports their framework - I lost count how many times in Mar I heard "Ukrainians are putting up a spirited defence but this war is still going to end in Russian victory".  That is human nature, but one has to be aware it is happening.
The other problem I have seen in this war's analysis is a serious lack of expertise in those holding the microphones.  I have seen the gambit of western GOs, some with pretty impressive resumes, on mainstream news and then the slick haired "combat bros" who served in the SEALs/Green Berets/Marine Recon/Rangers pushing their "analysis" via social media.  The reality is that as legitimate as these people are, or are not, none of them have a clue about what they are talking about - none of us really do.  Why?  Because the people who actually would recognize this type of war, and they would even find some aspects very odd, are in their 80s-90s.  Even those are mostly in-the-trenches-soldiers because all of the more senior leadership from WW2 and Korea died years ago.  I don't care if you were a 4 star general at the tip of the spear in Iraq, or a Navy SEAL who shot OBL in the forehead - none of us have ever been in a war of this level of peer-intensity.  The last European industrial war was really Yugoslavia and it never got to this level of intensity - in fact I am stretching to find an outlier war of this intensity and duration in a standup peer-on-peer fight since Korea.
Finally, analysts are a social group whether they want to admit it or not.  As such, a lot of normalization and peer-pressure occurs that naturally suppresses outliers.  Steve would have been laughed out of the room of "serious military analysts" in early Feb, written off as some amateur enthusiast who clearly did not understand the deeper nuances of modern warfare.  The mainstream analysts are trapped in the same box as those they analyze for and outliers get filtered out all the time.  This creates a self-reinforcing loop of agreement as everyone references each other as the "collective expertise".  This forms an incredibly powerful collective "norm" where advising power as on outlier is very risky because the first hand raised is going to say "well that is not what I heard from {insert pundit rock-star of the day}".
 

TB-2 is significantly larger than those drones, so it is easier to shoot them down with air defences.
 
RKG-1600 is basically just an RKG-3 with 3D-printed fins, so 220 mm penetration shaped charge if it lands correctly.


 

More longer video with Russian helicopter, shot down near Rivnopil. 
They flew by pair, first was atatcked by MANPAD missile, but missile hit flare. The second tried to avoid missile on extreme low flight, but couldn't
 
 

Another friendly reminder that 99% of the internet is not a reliable source and anyone can write a caption. In the words of Sergeant Hamlet from the CM Discord, this is Shroedinger's Hind.

Never seen two blatantly contradictingly titled clips of the same footage pop up next to each other in the feed before.

Any more news on the Ukrainian advances  in Kherson and  Izyum ?  Really would like to see some more  Ukrainian  War   news on this thread  - but seems like the amount of  details getting out is shrinking ?

Interesting twitter thread on Switchblade 300. Auto-translated the content below so you don't have to:
"Switchblade kamikaze drones have been used in Ukraine for a long time. Today we will understand how they work and why they are not as effective as they might seem. And what is the best way to replace them. Short thread
The United States has supplied Ukraine with 700 Switchblade 300 kamikaze drones. This is a lightweight disposable low-power drone designed to destroy enemy soldiers. In fact, this is not even a drone, but loitering ammunition
The main advantage of the Switchblade 300 is its compactness. It is launched from a small pipe, like a mortar, using compressed air. The entire system can be carried and controlled by one soldier. It can be conveniently brought directly to the position.
The main disadvantage of Switchblade 300 is disposability. Even without a goal, he cannot sit down. Either a fall, probably without the possibility of a restart, or a safe detonation. This imposes a great responsibility on the operator.
The Switchblade 300 is a lightweight drone that carries the equivalent of a 40mm grenade grenade. In these frames we see the wreckage after the explosion. Judging by the state of preservation, the power of the explosion is close to that of a hand grenade. This means that they cannot destroy equipment.
Look at an example of using a drone. Everything happens literally like in a computer game. A huge advantage of the Switchblade 300 is a high-quality camera, which, among other things, allows you to conduct reconnaissance in search of targets.
But the Switchblade 300 cannot significantly strengthen the Ukrainian army and is generally not suitable for this type of conflict. All because of the high price. One drone (or kit) costs $6,000 dollars. Although Ukraine received them for free, we must take into account the price, because you can buy something else for it.
For example, the 700 Switchblade 300 is $4.2 million. With this you can buy an M777 howitzer ($3.7 million) and there will still be money left for ammunition!
Each launch costs a lot. In Afghanistan, the Switchblade 300 has been used to hunt down important militants, groups of bomb-planters for terrorist attacks. It was justified there, because a small drone allows you to attack from the air, while avoiding collateral casualties among civilians.
But in Ukraine there is a regular army of Russia, the strength of which (like any regular army) is in its mass character and interchangeability. The destruction of individual soldiers is of course useful. But at $6,000, it becomes too expensive.   A much more interesting option is a quadrocopter with hanging ammunition. The same 40-mm grenades from the AGS-17 grenade launcher. Ukrainians have learned how to equip mass-produced Mavic 3 drones with them by printing a bomb launcher and grenade stabilizers on a 3D printer.   Videos of successful discharges of such grenades come across regularly. Here is one of the relatively recent ones. Yes, compared to the Switchblade 300, the accuracy is much lower, the wind can interfere. However, only a grenade is spent. The price of which is hundreds of dollars (or free). Drone may return   Let's compare Switchblade 300 and Mavic 3. Range: 10 km (15 minutes) and 15 km (40 minutes) Ceiling: 150 m and 6000 m Price $6000 and $2000-$4000 (Amazon) At the same time, the Mavic 3 drone is a priori reusable if it is not shot down.   As a result, it turns out that for the same amount you can buy about 2 times more drones with comparable and even reusable weapons. I think the price of a VOG-17 grenade with refinement should not exceed a couple of hundred bucks.   At the same time, intelligence plays a much more important role than the destruction of individual Russian soldiers. And Mavic 3 drones (or equivalent) are better at scouting because they can stay in the air longer and have better cameras. And heavier drones can carry larger charges.   The powerful Switchblade 600 with a warhead from Javelin is quite another matter. He is able to destroy expensive equipment, even if he costs much more. However, the supply of such drones to Ukraine is still only being discussed.   Finally, another video of the Switchblade 300 launch in Ukraine. Still, it seems that launching a quadcopter is faster, quieter and safer for the operator, which means it can get much closer to the enemy"   Fits in line with my expectations for the Switchblade in Ukraine.

Speaking of casualties...
_____
"Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.
The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers.
Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia has been gradually gaining territory. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley was asked about the rate of Ukrainian casualties on Wednesday and said it was difficult to estimate but previous media reports of around 100 killed and up to 300 injured each day had been "in the ballpark of our assessments." He was not responding to the latest Ukrainian estimate. Milley also said Russia had taken "huge" losses and Ukraine was fighting effectively." _____