Bulletpoint

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

Can we find accurate reliable numbers anymore? I doubt. This could be true in earlier stages but since the summer offensive Ukrainians are losing a lot too. 
Gliding bombs, drones etc have inflicted big damage to their forces, which repeatedly are being cut off in big cauldrons and get hammered until very last minute withdrawal. 
Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad. 
Lastly, they keep losing ground every day. Even the little gains of summer offensive in Zaporizhia front. There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely. 

easily said from the comfort of your couch here in the US.

My wife and I lived in England for several years. We watched ALL the episodes. 
Dave

Why without glide bombs? What would prevent russia from using glide bombs around Robotyne?

To me this looks more like desparation than sound military logic. Why throw a specialist assault unit into the fray after only a couple months rest to fend off long looming disaster at the last moment (and lose the fortress in the process), why throw in the 47th (basically already spent) right after the failed counter-offensive, why is a single brigade (110th) required to hold out in Avdiivka for 1.5yrs of war and 4 months of sustained assaults? If things were okayish, the 110th would have been pulled back sometime in October, replaced by the 111th and maybe later bolstered by the 112th (or whatever), both rested and fresh from the Belorussian border. Instead, UKR is force to pull one act of desparation after another. It almost looks as if they just don't have any strategic reserves, at all.
The underlying issue, at least to me, seems to be that RU has been running circles around UKR in terms of force generation for basically all of 2023 and ongoing. They may use these forces inefficently, but are able have brigade after brigade mauled while storming some fortress town, while UKR is forced to send the same couple of fire brigade units from hot spot to hot spot. The fact that UKR is basically cut off from foreign assistance and is likely going to be for the foreseeable future does not help in this matter, but their force generation issues seem to be a largely internal problem.

I completely agree, and I'm not German.

I believe we tested nukes in space. The EMP didn't fry absolutely everything. Just everything over roughly a continent-sized region, which is probably fine if your opponent is on the other side of the world. I believe the biggest problem with nukes in space is that it puts everyone on a hair trigger since the amount of time you have to respond to a nuclear attack is basically zero. Every time it passes overhead (which, in Low Earth Orbit, would be about once every 30 minutes) there is a chance that you could be facing a practically instantaneous first strike. Escalation risks skyrocket to the point that it just isn't a viable concept.

The ground conditions in fields western from Avdiivka
Summary from different UKR TGs about Avdiivka situation
 - 3rd brigade arrived in time - 110th brigade was completely exhausted and couldn't hold the line. Reinforcement allowed to stabilize situation from "catastrofical" to "very hard". Units of 110th brigade now are gradually withdrawing to the rear - first time for almost 1,5 years.
- Main effort of Russian on the north - to cut off coke plant ("AKXЗ" mark on the map) from the town, cut off urban area of Avdiivka with multystorey buildings (so called "9th quarter" or "Khimik"), capture fortified "Zenit" position on the south (former AD basem having underground bunkers and by rumors underground pass to coke plant). Now "Zenit" ("Зенит" on the map)is almost encircled

- Reportedly 3rd assault brigade could push back Russians from Industrial avenu in coke plant area and holds transport depo ("Avtobaza"). But due to opsec reasons there are no verified informations about 3rd brigade successs.
- Main trouble of our forces in Avdiivka are gliding bombs, which Russians don't spare. Each day they drop 35-40 heav bombs (including 1500 kg) on Avdiivka and villages in the rear - Lastochmkyne and Sieverne. AD here is very weak. Many criticism in adress of gen. Tarnavskyi and Air Force Command, which probably don't want to risk with Patriots of NASAMS for ambush actions, but infantry and logistic suffer hard under these strikes. 
On the video Russian bombs impact urban "9th quarter", coke plant is further on the backgrond
 

I'm new so forgive me if this has been discussed. It is a pain to organize and see the "big picture" of your artillery strikes, at least the way I'm doing it by going to a HQ or spotter unit and then clicking on each piece of artillery, then the "show spotter" function. Is there some way to show on the map ALL of your planned strikes (with the green lines back to the spotter) all at once? It would be aweome if you could do that, with a timer next to each area showing when the bombardment starts and finishes.

I had some fun and learnt a bit with QBs when I started. 
And then came the battle where I was confronted by 9 AI-selected Sherman flail tanks all clearing the road (with turrets turned to the rear) as they advanced towards my Jagdtiger and its friends.  That got messy very quickly 🫣 and I think I moved away from QBs shortly afterwards.

You *still* seem to be ignoring the rest of us here, who have been warning and pointing out developments, like debate rhetoric? Maybe better to understand that it is only human to filter out or dismiss what doesn’t fit your preferences. But heck, don’t take our word for it. Not sure where you obtain your political news but If you feel whiplashed, you definitely need to read more widely the massive reporting down there in the USA that has been a steady drumbeat about the end of democracy, the concerns about autocracy, the planning leaking from Trump’s team, the failure during four years to exact effective accountability, and the rock solid core support for not only Trump but for Trumpism despite everything. None of this guarantees the worst! But there darn sure has been a *consistent* substantive warning shout from the USA and a number of us here.  You do have to actually read them though. 
PS I’d appreciate you not putting words in our mouths and then mocking them. I never said “inevitable slide into civil war”. I suggest, point out, reference, and describe how what was unthinkable a few years ago *might* happen. But am NOT saying “inevitable”. And only you are saying an autocracy here would mean civil war. Doubtful, as many people wouldn’t either care, notice, or have any meaningful way to resist. As in the WashPost article I linked here a while ago. But read up in these for a start:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/us/politics/trump-rhetoric-fascism.html  https://time.com/6550686/trump-autocracy-dictator-polling/  https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/last-exit-trump-autocracy/616466/ https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-white-house-official-warns-of-a-us-autocracy-if-trump-wins-2nd-term-2021-11?op=1   
https://www.poynter.org/commentary/2023/how-to-report-trump-win-2024/ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2023-10-08/donald-trump-republican-party-autocratic-movement-dissent 
There are countless more. All you have to do is look.
 

Stalingrad Grain Silo, a must have map when dealing with Stalingrad.

Cheers bud

3rd assault going to "save" Adviivka? To me this is smelling like the unfortunate end of Bakhmut all over again.
In Finnish military thinking defense is supposed to be flexible and bend, like we saw at the start of the Ukrainian war. No point in "no step back" orders, when the situation is not advantageous in the current positions anymore. Then the ground is returned with a counterattack after the attacker has culminated.

But the Maginot line worked exactly as intended. It allowed France to man it's German border with lightly armed reservists and concentrate it's best troops against the actual location of the German attack. Their defeat in 1940 was due to other factors which we don't need to discuss in detail here.

CNN claims Russian recruited 15 000 Nepalians to Russian army: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/nepal-fighters-russia-ukraine-families-intl-cmd
The package included at least $2,000 salary a month and a fast-tracked process to obtain a Russian passport. 
After analyzing the TikTok profiles of 10 Nepali men who travelled to Russia to join the army, CNN used satellite imagery to geolocate them to the Avangard training center, a military academy outside of Moscow.
The soldier described his fellow academy cadets as coming from across the global south. He cited Afghan, Indian, Congolese and Egyptian classmates, among others. Class photos from Avangard posted on social media show dozens of what appear to be South Asian soldiers with native Russian instructors.
And here is likely "classmate" of Nepalians - the mercenery from Sierra-Leone was captured by UKR soldiers of 46th air-assault brigade on Maryinka direction
Except countries named above there were spotted a precense or were captured merceneries from next countries Somalia, Syria, Palestine, Myanma, Lybia, China, N.Korea (though they could be confused with other S.Asian nationality) 
 
 

I completely agree, but I think this was essentially what got Zeluzhny fired.
Now, with the new general, I expect to see a new and more brutal offensive by Ukraine in the spring. And this time, they won't call it off even when the casualties really start to mount.

1. WWI: was NOT just a war where armies slaughtered other armies from their trenches. This is a very simplistic, , western-front-centered  oversimplification. WWI was much more than the Western Front. In fact it was won by the Allies OUTSIDE the Western Front, by collapsing all other enemy fronts. It was also a war of movement indeed.
In 1914 it was a war of movement in the east and west. Russians broke the A-H front and took most of Galitzia in the East.Germans annihilated two Russian armies in East Prussia and Poland. It was also a war of movement in the west until the front got stabilized after the race to the sea. In 1915 Germans and Austrian broke the East Front in Gorlitze-Tarnow then advanced hundred of kilometers. Bulgaria entered the war, so Serbia was defeated and occupied. Turkey invaded the Sinai. In 1916, Russians launched the Brusilov offensive. In the best Russian tradition it was a incredible carnage, but there were larger advances and Austria-Hungary was on the verge of colapse. Romania entered the war on the Allied side. It was attacked and mostly occupied in a lighting campaign by the Central Powers.  In 1917 Russia collapsed and the Central Power armies advanced hundreds of kilometers inside Russia. The Caporetto offensive almost crushed the Italian Front, so Italy was on the verge of colapse. The Allied offensive captured Sinai and started the campaign which ended with the capture of Palestine and the final Turkish defeat. In 1918 the Italians won Vittorio Venetto battle, a general Allied advance in Italy started and A-H began its process to colapse. The Salonica front also collapsed leaving Bulgaria out of the war. Austria-Hungary had NO forces to cover the new fronts and the collapsing Italian front so eventually it surrendered. Then Germany, after Bulgaria, Turkey and A-H surrenders, had no forces to cover the Western Front and the whole Italian+Balkan front. 
In WWI case it was not exhaustion which made Germany surrender. All belligerent countries were as exhausted as Germany. Germany realized it was going to be check mated in three movements, so rather to fight to the grim end conceded defeat and signed an armistice. ALL countries were exhausted, including France, which had some mutinies in 1917, Italy and UK, not only Germany. 

2. At this point in the war I don't believe in a Russian colapse. Perhaps in three of four years, but I am not sure Ukraine will be able to wait for it and avoid collapsing itself. I am afraid that at present, time is more on the Russian side than the Ukrainian one. BTW I support Ukraine with no reservations. 

3. South Korea was a stalemate, not a South Korea-NATO victory indeed. SK survived, but North Korea survived too. Did both sides win? Did both sides lose? The fact is both countries are not even in peace yet. They have just signed an armistice.

4. Do are Stalingrad, Gettysburg and Waterloo examples of winning a campaign by just defending? First of all. They were BATTLES, no campaigns. The whole campaign including maneuvers where the side which took the offensive finally lost. If after those victories the defender had sit in his/her butt, doing nothing, but defending their defensive positions, there had been no results. In fact, in Gettysburg case there were no results. Meade didn't advance for weeks. Then finally, when it finally did it, it was too late, so it was defeated by Lee.

5. I already said an old Spanish saying "Quién no se consuela, es porque no quiere". which could be translated as "The person who does not console himself is because he does not want to do so". If there is no total, decisive victory, each side may claim they won in some degree. If Russia and Ukraine signed an armistice today,  Ukraine would survive as a nation. That would be a victory. However 20% of their territory and perhaps more population (including people who left the country and will not return) would be lost. That would be a defeat, wouldn't it?. Would it be 20% victory and 80% defeat, 80 victory and 20% defeat, or something in the middle?  I left it up to you. 
 

Isn’t the completely failed strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023 grounds for the dismissal of the commander-in-chief?
Let's look at 2023 from the perspective of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The loss of Bakhmut, the failure of the offensive in the Zaporozhye region. Underestimation of Russia's mobilization and industrial capabilities and, as a result, the encirclement and probable loss of the large fortified hub of Avdeevka.
To be honest, I don’t quite understand why Ukrainians idolize Zaluzhny so much? Although perhaps this is understandable. This is exactly the image of the victorious general in 2022 that was painted by Ukrainian and foreign media. Well, how can you not fall in love?
Let's look at Zelensky's culpability in the loss of foreign (American) support. Do you really think that Zelensky’s personality was the reason for blocking Ukrainian aid in the House of Representatives?
 
I believe this is just part of the Republicans' plan to take power. And it doesn’t matter who would be the current president of Ukraine: Poroshenko, Zaluzhny or Stepan Bandera, aid to Ukraine would still be blocked.
Perhaps you think that this influenced the blocking of borders by Polish or Slovak farmers? But I think that this also has nothing to do with Zelensky’s personality or politics

Once upon a time, they wasted infantry brigades all the way to Berlin.
in a war of attrition, and with little or no aid from the USA, the fog of war here is thick and heavy.

This is a misunderstanding of russia.
He was pulled *exactly* because everyone should see that putin is the big dog who can make people dissapear in foreign countries, remove them from ballots, or drop them out of windows. There was and is never any attempt at being subtle when you suicide reporters with several shots to the back of the head.
Making it fail because not reaching pathetic number of signatures just to drive home the point

Several days ago UKR social media shared scandal video, where servicemen of Dnipro city special purpose police regiment (former riot police "Berkut") rejected to execute an order, transferring them to National Police brigade "Liut' " ("Rage")
Moreover, personnel of the regiment became to speak typical pro-Russian stamps and insult the chief deputy of Dnipro police directorate, who came to them with the order, naming him "Maidan scum". Policemen cried "You have no right to dispose our lives!", "The law doesn't say we have to go at the war!", "We reject to execute this criminal order", We paid our debt to our state, when we defended it on Maidan under Molotov coctails!", "You can go at the war yourself!"
Acording to the law any force structure during martial law is a part of Defense Forces and have to execute orders as well participate in combat if this need. 
The video caused the tsunamy of the hate - police, like courts and prosecutors considered by Ukranian society as more corrupted structures, which defends not a law, but thoise who have a money.  By the way many servicemen in these special purpose police units (from 50-70 in the company to about 250-300 in regiment) are former "Berkut" servicemen, which were restored by court in service with support of former minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov. Most of these units continue to be a carriers of anti-Maidan moods. Also there are many conflicts between them and AFU servicemen on checkpoints in the rear. You can see on the photo - the servicemen are very tough bulls, not 50 y.o. tired riflemen in trenches. They in perfect physical conditions, but for them easily to show own strenght and power defending interersts of corrupted system and to chase granmas, trading apples near transport stops, than go at the war. Many of them consider themselves as untouched caste and many of new guys, who came to these units quicly become the same dumb buffalos. So, society returns them the same hate, like in 2014.   
Despite many policemen and retired policemen enlisted to volunteer police battalions and regimnets, which in 2023 were united in "Liut' " assault brigade, police have a reservation from sending to frontline to AFU. But they can be transferred to this brigade, subordinated to National Police.
Today leadership of National Police issued a reaction - Dnipro special purpose police regiment will be disbanded. All staff wiil be moved to "Liut' " brigade. Who will reject to transfer will be fired from police service and will receive mobilization summon to AFU. Let see how this ends. Many people believe these pro-Russian scum just will pay money to military medical commitee in order they "found" many deceases and recognized them unfit for service