Probus

RU claims that Pansir and Tor can intercept MLRS rockets. The issue is RU claims are not very reliable. 

Strong incel energy here.
Probus is right. Don't feed the trolls.

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

New video from Perun addressing some of the fake news and also general situation.

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

- Don't feed the trolls -
@BFCElvis

I just wish it was for a happier subject Bill. 

This is the first time I've seen a thread with over 1 million views.  Amazing conversation, amazing and insightful contributors.  Must be the best non-professional source on the war online.

Javelin launch on BMP-3
Time-lapse photo of Javelin launch

"Yesterday our soldiers successfully used their bodies to intercept thousands of bullets."

Our sincerest regrets for your application for the lawn maintenance crew.  Unfortunately, your ability to predict effects would we feel have an unfortunate impact on our field.  We really don't feel crabgrass makes for a good outfield. For the record our current hiring practice requires at least a .005 average.
-signed the management.

I don´t think it has much to do with Trump. My theory is that the pull of the allied forces from Afghanistan and Kabul in 08/2021 was the trigger which was interpreted by Putin as a sign of weakness of the west and made him think he could get through with an invasion of Ukraine without the west significantly supporting Ukraine. Anyways it´s just my theory. Putin is a madman, so I could be totally off with my assessment.

RU tactical aviation cannot operate anywhere UKR dug in and because UKR dug everywhere RU Tac Air is weak everywhere.
When Tac Air cannot support Land Forces the drone support is of critical importance.
AZER Forces destroyed ARMEN Arty with drones (implying it was war winning tactics). ARMEN Soviet AA made AZER Air ineffective, but AZER drones got arty (implying ARMEN Soviet AA could not deal with AZER drones).[AFAIR it was RU-based AA, it looks like Girkin just do not want to admit RU AA have difficulty with Drones)
RU extremely lacks recon drones.
Very few strike drones (but more than they have recon drones but not by much).
RU uses Caliber missile to do what US does with long range drones.
It looks like sone Tochka U will be used in masses due to lack of other PGMs (may be exaggeration as Girkin got emotional)
No comment regarding UKR shopping list - they look like they do not know what to say.
There are some preparation for mobilization but it means nothing as there is no guaranty mobilization will be called.
There is secret partial mobilization to make up losses. New formations are being made but there are too few of them. It is not a strategic reserve.
For 1 Army HQ (there are around 11 armies deployed) there are 1.2 classical division as per number BTG/battalions.
100,000 additional soldiers will allow only match UKR numbers.
RU RPO-A flamethrower (rocket propelled one) has real range about 100 meters due to accuracy. Still needs skilled shooter.
Main fight happens with Arty and mortars. everything short ranges is more or less irrelevant.
A RU general at Kharkiv asked his forces why they are running and not hitting UKR back with RPO-A (implying it happened during that famous RU collapse). They replied we are being hit with arty with much longer range. [Anecdote to show military incompetence and strange RU believe in magic of RU flame weapons)
Girkin used to shoot with RPO-A once. Missed from 50 meters. Claims he could hit standing man target with underslung launcher from 50 meters.
TOS difficult to use due to short range - lightly armoured, kills crew when hit even with mortar round.
They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck]
Girkin fuming that de facto there is no Flying Zone over UKR. He is claiming foreign planes deliver weapons directly to UKR. Claims there is conspiracy of sort.
LDNR tries to block RU volunteers from joining LDNR forces. Probably to block spread of information that LDNR forces are poor and poorly controlled cannon fodder.
RU grabing anybody they can for contract soldier but do not recall reserve officers - probably believe they have enough. They have enough regular officers and reserve officers could be politically unreliable. Ru main concern loyalty and not merit.
There is not enough modern weapons.
Kremlin is afraid of forming Ukrainian formations due to their questionable loyalty.
They believe West will exterminate RU that why they must destroy Ukraine to stop being used by West to kill RU. [No comments]
Operations take that long time because with current forces it is impossible to win (implying they are just prolonging the war).
Lack of drones is because nobody cares in MOD and other GovDepts.[Where Girkin was last 20 years? On a different planet?]
Girkin believe in due time UKR will start striking Crimea but he is not sure.
RU did not surround Severodonets area before assault due to lack of forces. UKR are fighting back hard.
When RU cut Artemovsk-Lisichans road UKR counter-attacked and pushed them back. Road is currently under RU fire only.
UKR terrain is flat terrain cut by recess with rivers and creeks and there are a lot of agricultural roads around. In dry season very easy to put bridges over these rivers and creeks to make another fully usable road to bypass dangerous part. Because of that the supply of UKR group is not cut.
Because supply is not cut UKR is not retreating from Zolotoe and Gorskoe to Lisichansk.
Because of that the only way is to frontally assault them.
Not enough forces to assault Slavynsk - tough defenses. It is large city agglomeration which needs to be assault from everywhere (implying not enough forces)
RU offence continues not because they hope for success but because they need to show activity. [Remember I talked about Pressure Cooker?] Also because they try to fix UKR forces. Finally if it stops UKR from getting initiative (implying RU will go totally defensive if stops)
Everybody already realized that current RU offensive cannot destroy UKR donbas group.[It looks like RU forces have to go defensive but cannot accept that and advancing where they can advance due to previous preparations. They simply cannot advance everywhere else even if it will yield better results)
They do believe that RU is not fighting seriously due to Kremlin conspiracy
They claim Brigadisation of RU army was to improve rebellion suppression capabilities of the Army. After some time it was canceled but they could not in time create enough proper divisions (Army HQ - divisions ratio above)
It was better to advance toward Kharkiv. Had better chance of success with much worse moral effect for UKR.
Current RU offensive did not give RU any strategic advantages except  [Victory] reports on TV.
They hope Slavyansk would not be attacked at all due to expected heavy losses.
Without general cleansing of top RU command and government war cannot be won.
But they will win anyway with or without Putin.
I am off to bed. Write if you need to clarify anything. If i have time tomorrow I will check it. 

At the end of the day, it's a combination of two things:
1) China doesn't gain anything helping Russia in their Ukrainian debacle militarily. What is Russia going to do? Cut off oil exports to China, their largest remaining export partner? China doesn't want a strong Russia on its borders. A weakened Russia perfectly suits them, as they pretty much see Russia as a cheap resource extraction site, and the weaker they are, the more China can dictate terms. They already buy oil at a very substantial discount from Russia.
2) Even limited Western sanctions against China would be very hurtful, especially while they are still battling Covid and their economy has been battered by the lockdowns. China needs the Western markets much more than the West needs China, and they know this.

These factors mean that there is nothing for them to gain providing military help to Russia, or even trying to bail out the Russian economy. Even sanction busting is risky for them, and doesn't provide much gain. The only real gain for them is political, and Russia is already pretty much forced to cozy up to China. Who else are they going to turn to? India? Brazil? Nicaragua? Iran? Venezuela? Cuba?
It doesn't matter much to the Chinese politically whether they help Russia or not, and they don't gain anything providing anything more substantial than words of support. They are no different from the British Foreign Office in Yes, Prime Minister
 



 

Hey all,
I just wanted to bring attention to this.  My Grandfather was one of the 200 original Merrill's Marauders who made it out alive and walking on his own power.  He had both dysentery and malaria and was affected with PTSD his entire life.  He was one of that generation that did what they had to do, bore it and never talked about it after.  However, at the end of his life, he talked to me a ton and told me all his stories as he knew I was one who really appreciated it and wanted his knowledge and experiences to save them.
https://www.ausa.org/news/merrills-marauders-recognized-gold-medal?fbclid=IwAR0o4M6oXxhFzpBmpWbgMsAlBXGpPUAjs4ayrBKOjUhG7CX5HMiHKVZvpug
He was only a private, fought on Guadalcanal first and then volunteered for the "secret mission" that became the Marauder's campaign.  They were all heroes and deserve this and it makes me sad only two of them are left alive to receive the honor.  He spent 29 months in the Army during the war.
See my sig.  RIP Grampa.  
Here is a just released documentary about the unit and what they did if you are unaware or interested.  The 75th Ranger Regt. of today traces its lineage directly back to the Marauders.
https://video.kpbs.org/video/they-volunteered-for-this-merrills-marauders-Ty6ODM/?fbclid=IwAR0gx9DGIbIC04z_O63lFgU6Dpmb6g1FwAp7mm3-CQzMnAwRbfiVJpIRH_Y

on current US admin, I'd say two somewhat contradictory things are true at the same time:
1.  The US is not providing enough of what UKR needs and could/should provide a lot more
2.  The US is providing ~10X more than any other nation
So folks can choose which of these to ignore or accept, but they are both true.  I accept both of these so I am glad and  mad at the same time. 

@Battlefront.comSteve,
  I created a quick battle to just play a bit of what is currently going on.  Some things I noticed we need to add to CMBS DLC pack:
Ukrainian drones. Varied western AT weapons for Ukraine. Varied western MANPADS. Captured Russian equipment. Heavier personal armor. Ukrainian irregulars. UKR Foreign Legion with light and heavy weapons. Russian "V", "Z", "O" etc... markings (that would make a good mod). Trucks that immobilize themselves because of Chinese tires. Equipment that either randomly break during the game or start out with down systems. Engine Updates?:
Remote firing SKIF (if doable in the engine). New advance command whilst reversing. Farmer's tractors?   Also Many new "Road" or convoy based maps/scenarios.
Just to name a few...