Probus

If my hypothesis that these are distraction attacks in preparation for the main offensive is correct, then this is exactly the result the Ukrainians were hoping for. The more troops Russia sends this way, the easier the real offensive will be.

It cuts a multitude of ways. Prigozhin certainly would have Kremlin approved reasons for having GUR contacts. Prisoner exchange is the obvious one. Another would be to create provocations and transmit misdirection. But Prigozhin also is operating in a milieu in which such approvals aren't written down anywhere so that they can be turned against one at any time. In addition, he is in an elite power struggle in the Kremlin so it is entirely believable that he would attempt to negotiate a 'victory' in Bakhmut and embarrass his bete noirs, Gerasimov and Shoigu. It is a good example of a pawn imagining that he's a player. 
I don't rate his long term chances. 

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

Might be time for a "How Hot is Belarus Gonna get?" thread...

Might be time for a "How Hot is Belarus Gonna get?" thread...

And last I heard those training centers won't be available until June, when they will finally be done with the spring conscription cycle.

So, based on what I'm seeing, this is my prediction.
Limited objective Ukrainian counterattacks across the entire frontline will continue over the next few weeks, increasing in scale and tempo. This will force the Russians to think short-term, disperse whatever they have left in reserve, and increase panic among Russian soldiers. Shortly before the main offensive kicks off we are going to see smoking accidents in Russian ammo dumps and command centers all over Ukraine, throughout the entire depth of the Russian occupied territory (probably not limited to the intended area of the main offensive, unless Ukraine needs to closely husband a limited supply of Storm Shadows). I'm thinking the offensive itself could be on a broader front than I had previously imagined, possibly stretching from Melitopol to Mariupol. Once Ukrainian forces have cleared out the Russian air defenses between them and the coast (Storm Shadow is not immune to interception), the Kerch bridge has a series of smoking accidents until a sizeable section of it drops. As the Russians scramble to respond to the main offensive the pace of opportunistic attacks in Luhansk and Donetsk increase, carving out more and more territory, with the objectives becoming less and less limited. As the Russian frontline in Zaporizhia collapses, the Ukrainians get more aggressive with their bridgehead in Kherson, possibly pushing to beat as many Russian units as possible to the neck of Crimea. The offensive may temporarily stall at the neck of the Crimean peninsula. But without any reinforcements, and with Ukrainian pressure forcing the Russians to expend ammo faster than it can be sealifted in, resistance in Crimea collapses within another month. Another wave of emergency mobilization, the limited scale of the attacks in the region, and the fact that it will take time for Ukraine to reorient their main offensive forces, may allow the Russians to stabilize the situation in Luhansk and Donetsk. A follow up offensive later this year or early next year is needed to finish the Russians off.

On the one hand, this isn't super surprising. The US spends an arm and a leg maintaining up to date maps, and even then infrequently used ones can go a long time between refreshes. I once worked on a map update project where the most recent ones were from the 1960s. It's faster and easier now that there's abundant good open source mapping, but still time consuming and expensive.
That said, we did that map refresh because we thought we might have to intervene in a year or two in a particular country. The idea that you'd intentionally invade a country with thirty year old maps reveals a focus (like the IJN) on the cult of the shiny object, and not on the boring but essential things that make an army work.

Another reason why Battlefront needs to make CMSU. I really need these Ukrainian style Challenger 2s.

that was a rant?  It wasn't even a diatribe, or a sternly worded talking-to. 
So what are you suggesting will happen for May, and then June?
I think May is lots of shaping, misdirection, probing, and relatively small exploitation when opportunity arises, like 5-10km advance here & there.  Putin's head will be spinning and hopefully he'll overreact in one place leading to setback in another.  Then later June/early July UKR hits somewhere really, really hard.  Prolly in the south as you suggest.

*rant begins*  I think the UA offensive is right around the corner, prolly less than 7 days.  We won't know it until after it has happened, of course.  June will be a much different month than May.  Just watch.  Its all starting to fly together ready for a push.  I hope they can push 'em back all the way to the Black Sea at the very least.  Simply put, well applied Western firepower trumps the best the conscript Russians can bring to the table.
Just look at all the signs...  or the suspicious lack thereof in some cases.
My money is on an offensive from Melitopol through Mariupol. *rant ends*

It looks like M2 in Ukrainian service will be called „Kitty Cat” (I do not dare to suggest another name, commonly used for both cats and ladyparts). UA are really good with social media and I love witty videos they usually post - but this one is just too much 🤣😂
 

Pussy Galore would fit, as in 007 Goldfinger...both beautiful and deadly.

Good point, I didn't look closely at what had been shared until after I posted.  But going forward if you, Beleg, TheCapt & others could please restrict your comments to things that I want to hear instead of things that make sense it would be greatly appreciated.

It has fake written all over it. Who needs a daily update on which countries are in Nato? And a daily reminder of the number of SOF in Ukraine...
And the alleged photoshopping of casualty figures is likely only intended to make you believe that the original, "unphotoshopped" figures are true. Russia only lost around 40,000 KIA? I find that hard to believe after a year of total failwar.

A question about the argument: sending arms to Ukraine diminishes the ability of the US to fight China in Taiwan.
Given that a fight for Taiwan would mostly be a Navy & Air force thing (for the US) and the stuff sent to Ukraine is mostly for Army use - how is the above an argument? (that is really a question, not a backhand argument in itself ).

Ok to summarize:
- Ukrainian economy
- Russian Support kicking in (namely from China)
- Western support running out - materially, and glancing off of will.
Ergo - west is not providing enough support, should accelerate/double down in order to end this war before Ukraine runs out of time.  I think I got it all but jump in if I missed something.
Well first off it fails to recognize Russian trajectories, which are not pretty either militarily or economically.  Ukraine is not seeing shipments of M60s and Leo 1s, but Russia is shipping T62s.  This is evidence that as it relates to material Russia is running out of runway while there is no evidence the Western cupboard is bare.  
We do know there are production concerns as western inventories of forward edge munitions are starting to strain.  However, let’s keep a level head here on this.  I had a chance to virtually attend a RUSI conference last week on air power and let me say that military industry has seen the wind and is really leaning into it.  It is in their interests to accentuate production shortfalls and issues as in this environment they will equate directly to deep long term investment in their industry.  So the “truth” is likely somewhere in between.  We are seeing shortfalls in some areas because we were set up for short wars, but we also have some pretty deep war stocks.  I have seen no evidence that we are really anywhere near the bottom of the barrel, we will need to accept risk but welcome to warfare.
Ukrainian economy - well by this logic (ie saving the Ukrainian economy) then Ukraine should have likely sued for peace last Nov.  The economic return on the land they take back from here is not likely to pay for the costs of taking it back at this point.  Frankly if the West does not follow up this war with the largest reconstruction effort since the Second World War then we may as well pull out now - and the grown ups know this.  So listing this one as a forcing function doesn’t really line up because we are talking decades of investment if this thing ended today regardless.
So we are really down to western Will on one side.  Russian Will and Material on the other.  
Russian Material is a significant problem for them.  China would have to seriously invest, likely more than the entire western effort for Ukraine right now, to stop the current RA trajectory.  Will China go that far?  We do not know, but we are not seeing evidence that China is preparing to jump into this thing with both feet.  It is a single powerful nation with a lot of regional defence and security bills to pay, hemorrhaging that into Russia is a questionable strategy but we will see.  Russian Will appears startlingly robust, at least on the surface the signs of strain are there.  But I am betting it is also not infinite.
Time = Western Will, there is your forcing function.

You should try @IanL's Whose Turn is It:
https://www.lesliesoftware.com/products/WhoseTurnIsIt/index.html

Congratulations to @Free Whisky, @Lethaface, and gfs26.  Also props to @MeatEtr!
I can thank @Free Whisky, with an absolutely devastating 2nd round, for my 5th place finish. 😬 😉

A long, well written article about the lessons China is drawing from the Ukraine war. Primary lessons learned.
1) Putin waving the nuclear stick has been effective at keeping NATO from doing more in Ukraine. Waving the nuclear stick will be China's primary strategy to keep the U.S. from committing to defending Taiwan.
2) Starlink has been absolutely critical. They need their own version, and a way to take Starlink down.
3) They seem to be absorbing many of the lessons the board has discussed at length. Don't bleep up your supply lines, do have enough infantry, no such thing as too many drones, and so on.
My two main take aways.
1) A war over Taiwan will absolutely trash EVERYTHING in low earth orbit. There needs to be a plan to deal with that, a good well resourced program to deal with that. The economic damage will be vast too, but a war over Taiwan is going to trash the world economy regardless.
2) The U.S. needs to put a truly large military force on the ground in Taiwan. Large enough to reduce ambiguity to zero. I like the entire Marine division idea, but regardless it needs to big enough that their is no question that the U.S. is going to fight. Ambiguity is how Ukraine happened, if we make it absolutely clear attacking Taiwan is starting a war with the U.S. China might not do it. I have real doubts about anything less, barring a complete change in China's approach.
My two cents, worth what you paid.
 

Export only model.
Combined developmnet of Ukraine and Belgium for export. 
M113 or any armored car is not a starship. Western artillery systems also were properly mastered very quickly  

It was an attempt at space armour to protect the side of the tank from oblique fire. It may have some small merit, but apparently the plates fell off fairly easily and were a maintenance headache.

It would be nice to see some sort of coherency between infantry and armor when it came to advancing together. I've seen plenty of videos of infantry using a tank to cover them from small arms.

Friendly vehicles will block fire, but it is physics based and it is luck of the draw if the infantry will position themselves behind the vehicle or not

Vehicles will block small arms fire. In the various titles I generally want infantry to keep some distance from the armor. 1) If the infantry are leading they might get the drop on enemies with relatively short ranged AT rockets. 2) If the armored vehicle gets hit and blows up* the infantry doesn't get suppressed and killed.
H
*This is even more important with the modern titles and BMP3s. I am convinced that the BMP3 remains the best VBIED in the game.