Sandokan

I loved seeing that guy pop out of the hatch with his phone in hand - I was imagining he's looking up a YouTube video on how to start the tank. Because of course there'd be a YouTube video for that !

Not my graphic work, but just seen it and I could caption it Steve and his wife in Bed?
But it could equally apply to me and everyone else on this thread...
Please don't put me on a vacation....🥺

The function of dictators is to make democratic countries look good. 

Ooh I've seen this behavior before. His tac Ai is telling him to go around and use the back door.

In my goody box in the CMRT section is the new mod and the first scenario CSIR PRIMO SANGUE...briefing at the bottom.
NOTE FOR Z FOLDER ISSUES: This mod has a folder that should only be in the z folder WHEN you play the scenario, otherwise your script file is hosed up. There is also a new introduction song in Italian, a real toe tapper called "The legend of Piave" (a WW1 battle song) and a splash screen and UI mods. Stuff you don't want in there UNLESS playing the CMRT Italy Mod. If you have lots of extra voices in German, you will probably still hear them. I did mod all stock voices to be Italian. I tried to cover the stock number of slots for helmets and uniforms. So again, if you have extra stuff in your z, then you might see some oddities. If you can, pull that stuff out and keep it outside z safe until AFTER you play this new battle.
Viva Italia!

^
CSIR PRIMO SANGUE <First Blood>
...late morning on the heights west of the River Bug. 10 August 1941. The sky is overcast, the wind is light from the east. The ground is slightly damp from recent rains.
^
You are Capitano D'Carlo of the CC.NN. "Camicie Nere" (Blackshirts). Your Blackshirt company is assigned to attack on the Battalion's right flank towards Prybuzhany. Taking Prybuzhany will support crossing the Bug River. The men are jubilant to FINALLY encounter some action after the long trip from Italy.
^
The Soviet rearguards are expected to offer short but intense resistance. They may hold until killed or captured. -OR- They may pull back and try to cross the river themselves. 
^
The Company Sergente Maggiore has brought up ammo crates for each squadra (squad) <in your 2 plotone (platoon) binary  organization>. Carefully top off the small arms ammo as necessary before commencing the attack. 1 of your 2 plotoni (platoons) has staged down by the wheat fields and should sweep forward and swing out to the right to clear the fields and houses as it moves toward Prybuzhany as your "right hook". Your other plotone is in reserve but is covering your left flank. At about 10 to 15 minutes, they will arrive by the road to provide cover fire for your final assault, or to join the assault. The Battalion has attached 1 HMG and a team of assault engineers to assist you in accomplishing your mission. You have your own section of three light mortars to also support your assault. Mortar ammunition should be conserved as best you can...
^
You have 30 minutes Capitano! Points are awarded for destroying enemy units and occupying the terrain objectives. There are also two parameter bonuses: 1) keep your casualties very low below 10%. 2) destroy most of the enemy, more than 75%.

 

All countries are artificial. The belief in a natural nation state of a pure people is the kind of thing Putin believes in.
If you want to be on the winning side of history stick with the artificial agglomerates (Unites States of..., Eur...Union)

So I think a lot of people (including some experts) are wrestling with this concept of what a Ukrainian victory might look like.  The simplest answer is "existence".  If, after all this Ukraine is still a functioning independent nation (even with redrawn borders) able to decide and chart its own fate, and recognized within the global community as such...they "win".
Further, as in most wars the Ukrainians win if Russian "lose" and the definition of that is widening by the min; however, the Russians also have the added spin of the reality that they can "win" in Ukraine and still "lose", this is an added complication that invading militaries all face. 
Russia could pound a half a dozen Ukrainian cities into dust, massive civilian casualties and eventually the Ukrainian government resolve may fracture, it is highly likely that the resolve of the Ukrainian people, at least in some circles will outlast the resolve of the government, that is a the seed of an insurgency.  Technically, if the Ukrainian government falls and an insurgency doesn't happen, it is still a Russian "loss".  The reason, that level of blunt use of force, human suffering and likely war crimes will ensure that the sanctions we are seeing will stick for a very long time, to the point that Russia will not be "Russia" in a few years. Further domestic support in Russia is very likely going to crack and internal security issues are almost guaranteed.
Looking at the strategic options space, Ukraine has many roads to victory left to it right now.  They can lose Kyiv and major cities in the east but can create governments in exile and deny western Ukraine, at least, with resistance for a generation. There are options and off-ramps for them all along the way from here to there. 
The Russian strategic options space is compressing quickly and painfully. Right now, the only Russian "win" is to keep the pressure up and win at the negotiation table. If they do it early and reasonably the west may lose interest in sanctions in a year or two.  They may get the Crimea (but man it cost them) and some concessions but these are very big maybes right now.  Russian credibility has been burned for a generation on the world stage, it is done, they do not get that back. 
All other options available to Russia are worse that that option.  They double down and do the medieval game, and they are a third world nation or satellite of China in less than a decade. Or the Russian population votes with violence, we are looking at destabilization of Russia in the short term and possibility of a Russian Civil war in the longer.  I think it much more likely that Putin is retired well before this happens. 
In short, doubling down on kinetic sieges is akin to finding your arm stuck in a hornets nest and deciding to start smashing it with your face.  Sure you will break the hive and if given enough time you will kill a lot of hornets, but you sure as hell won't be going out dancing anytime soon.  And to make matters worse, you are guaranteed to have that on YouTube with a billion hits. 

Please don't tempt fate! They will be accurate within ~5 years!

It's better call than call from the administrative HQ.

I too hope he is treated well (seems like it) and can go home soon, because that will mean the war is over soon

the older I get, the younger they look.

Ukraine could end up with more tanks after the war, than they had before the war 😄

Man that hurts,,,,

War on the Rocks podcast: A pretty fair review of the opening few days, and a warning that Russia may have had setbacks but still has considerable reserves and is likely to adapt etc. Also seem to be winning in the south.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/interpreting-the-first-few-days-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

Hi everyone. Nikita here.
I'm still in Crimea. I have to be careful with every word, especially after being detained on 24th by police and FSB, so I will be brief. I am literally shaking as I type due to adrenaline, but we all need to be strong these days.
1) Ukraine will be free. The bastards will fail. I can clearly see it.
2) We witness an insane amount of heroism. Which is truly inspiring.
3) Thanks to Steve and other people from here who were kind to me in the past and took time and patience to communicate with me. It made a lot of difference in the end and made me a person who I am today.

Wow, what a crazy weekend!
So I figure I might be able to add to the discussion on the whole state of things, people normally have to pay for this but I like you guys so much you can have it gratis.  
We are currently in a human social singularity and have been since the beginning of the pandemic.  Historians may very well point out that 1991 to 2022 was one big singularity.  By that I mean the coin is literally in the air and there is no real way to tell how it will land.  So here we are all spinning in a massive uncertainty and trying to cling onto certainty, very human.  The best we can honestly do right now is enhance our strategic agility and collective resilience because no one really knows how this thing will unfold (trust me). Predictive assessment and projections are about as accurate as throwing dice in these situations so I really encourage everyone to avoid getting to attached to any one version of reality.
So that all said, here is what we can say:
War, all war, is a human social activity that is defined by a collision of certainties.  It is a theory with primary components of: a version of reality, communication, negotiation and sacrifice, all laid overtop a foundation of culture/identity and power.  Right now this is a three way war (at least): Russia, Ukraine and the West (for want of a better word).  I include the West not only for the material and volunteer fighters but the incredible amount of information warfare being waged all pretty much in the direction of Russia.  Further the West also has a vision of reality and certainty stake in all this.
So what?  Well the versions of reality by all parties is pretty clear by now, Russia's is a still a little vague but it is hard not to see an overall aim here.  Communication is literally happening live on YouTube and Twitter in all its forms. Negotiation is ongoing in so many dimensions it would be impossible to see them all.  Sacrifice, which is more than the obvious tragedy of loss of life it is what each side is willing to lose in order to win, is largely unknown outside of some really big rocks (e.g. The west is not willing to sacrifice New York for Kyiv).  This war is definitely existential for Ukraine, maybe for Russian and very impactful for the western based view of the world order.  In summary this system is still in collision and it is almost impossible to tell where it will land; if you want to know how a war ends, you have to fight it first. 
So what can we tell so far?  Well for that I take a look at the deeper power frameworks:
If we take Power as Will, Strength, Relationships and Opportunity (there are other models but this one works):
- Opportunity.  The options spaces for a short sharp war, which probably served Russian ends, is pretty much closed.  And here I mean for all sides.  Ukraine has dug in and I am not sure they would listen at a local level if the Ukrainian government begged them to put down arms.  Russian military operations have not gone according to plan.  There is too much evidence of stalls, logistical screw ups and frankly disturbing losses (mins/dis information caveats accepted - some of this equipment being towed by Ukrainian tractors are Div level assets).  The Russian quick definitive war options spaces have likely collapsed unless they are willing to escalate to the WMD level.  The West has swung the other way, dramatically.  Soft support and kinda weak signals have been galvanized in a manner I find shocking to be honest.  This, and the fourth party in this fight, the people of the global community, is also something I am not sure anyone was ready for.  So what?  Opportunity-wise Russia is facing one of two spheres of options: negotiate a "just enough win" or dig in for a long hard grind.  Ukraine is looking to "just lose enough" or pretty much "hey Russia go f#ck yourself" and wage a hybrid war for the history books (we are talking Iberian Peninsula "war to the knife" type stuff).  There have been zero signs of regional Ukrainian splits beyond the Donbas (and even there), so while Balkanization is likely on the table there is a lot of space between initial bargaining positions.
- Relationships.  This could not have gone better for Ukraine if they actually sat down and workshopped it as a movie script.  Russia is isolated and villainized to a point I am not sure even the most optimistic western planner could hope for.  China and India are basically staying out of this as far as I can see, while Russia's allies are Belarus and...?  I mean if its true, the freakin Chechens (modern day Cossacks) said "no thank you".  Only the most delusional Russophile could describe this as anything but a total relationship disaster for Russia and enormous victory for Ukraine, at least so far.
- Strength.  Well this is a deep rabbit hole but I am pretty sure most experts will (and are) saying that Russia still has an enormous military advantage (even subtracting the nuclear equation).  Their economy is crashing a lot faster than many thought so unless those "military contractors" on the Russian side are being paid in USD, it is going to hurt eventually.  But Russia is a big machine that will take a long time to choke out economically - at least that is the theory, I am beginning to wonder.  So if this turns into a long grinding war we will likely see urban sieges (wow that takes me back) and a brutal insurgency that is really not good for anyone.  Russians will bleed, heavily and Ukraine will take decades to recover.  In the end, neither side is showing an inability to muster and project military power, at least for now.
- Will, the church of warfare, and it definitely applies here. Whose will break first?  Not the West, our stakes are much lower and we are pretty much all in for the little guy, plus we are not hurting.  Putin really has only one option space wrt to western Will and that is nuclear war; however, he will likely suffer a 9mm headache if he tries to go that far.  Ukrainian Will, well one can only go on online video and open source here but it seems pretty clear that Ukrainian will to fight has escalated in the last 5 days, not diminished.  Compare the Ukraine to the Afghan National Army vs Taliban last Aug if one wants a stark contrast of the concept of Will.  
Russia, hoo buddy, lets sit down and have a conversation.  So things have definitely not gone according to any sane plan.  The Ukrainians are really pissed off and are digging in hard, they own the ground and are being supplied by the best the west can give them and that cheque is pretty close to blank.  So, how bad do you really want the Ukraine? I mean really want it?  This is making that little misadventure to Afghanistan back in 79 look pretty benign.  You can probably "win" this militarily but it may very well break your nation trying to do it.  Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side.  I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for a months long siege of Kyiv (In 16-17, it took 115k Iraqis with western support and all the airspace 9 months to take Mosul from about 12k ISIL fighters), so what does next Christmas look like for Russians, cause I suspect Ukrainians are already planning for it. 
Anyway, just keep watching but I do recommend that we take mental health breaks too because this is still got room to be one crazy ride.  Oh and remember while you are at it that there are those, even on this forum, who cannot take mental health breaks, this is not theoretical for them so try and keep that in mind too.
 
 

So this thread has been really good for following the WAR in Ukraine and seeing peoples views on tactics and operational options etc.  However I would say that last couple of pages have turned into theological semantic back and forth bulls**t.  He stole my toy first back in 19th century whatever.  These arguments have a time and place but for me not on this thread.  You want to discuss conspiracy theories, who has the moral high ground etc, then open your own thread and have at it, cause if you dont I can see this interesting thread with its wealth of information getting shutdown.  Plus I cant be bothered wading through all that drivel.
 
Thanks in advance.

🤣💀🤣
Apparently, if we look at Russian results so far from video, traffic bunching and jamming on roads ala CM is also, indeed, 100% accurate.

There are sporadic clashes in Kyiv with diversion groups. Many groups managed to detain without a shooting, but they are mostly locals, Russians as a rule armed and resist. The one policeman was killed today, when tried to chek the documents. 
Total curfew declared from 17-00 Friday until 8-00 Monday. Any, who will be on the street witjout special document will be concider like potential diversant. 
Not far from my house on important road there are two fotified chekpoints established, which controlled by territorial defense troopers and armed volunteers. They are now together with police secure the city inside, when all army, National Guard and even SBU special forces Alfa involved in outer perimetr defense. 
Firing of Pions not far from my house looks like brought results - enemy field ammunition depot in Hostomel are make big boom (on the photo) 
Reportedly SBU Alfa with support of Army mopped up again Hostomel airfield and captured many Chechens.
Russians shelled large building of children clinic almost in the center of Kyiv. Not far from of it a Ground Forces Command building is deployed. I havn't info what kind of weapon was used and direction, just reportedly 1 child was killed, 2 more wounded as well as 2 of clinic personnel

So it is about 11 pm in Kyiv so let's summarize day 3 of this nasty bit of business.  If I miss anything feel free to jump in. [aside: people will recall when Iran shot down that Ukrainian airliner (just weird) how a bunch of internet nerds figured out where the shooter were before western intel did, well this little thread is doing one bang up job of intel analysis so I wanna try and capture that].
Caveat - this assessment is based on unclassified open source intelligence, much of it unverified or unverifiable at this time.
Strategic Level:  While the strategic causes of this military action by Russia remain vague and unconfirmed (i.e. I still have not seen a reason "why now" beyond "why not"), the overall most likely strategic objective is the total defeat of Ukraine as a nation, followed by installation of a puppet regime as a demonstration to NATO and western powers of Russian power in the region. 
The overall Russian strategy in this action was to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces quickly with a knockout blow aimed at Kyiv designed to break the will of Ukrainian resistance.  It appears that this objective was in a 48-72 hour window, other strategic objectives are largely unknow at this time (?).  One of the biggest strategic unknowns at this time is the overall will of the Russian people to continue to prosecute this war, current Russian leadership likely remain fully committed and short of a regime change will not likely voluntarily pull out.
Over the last 72 hours Europe and the West appear to have solidified their stance on this war with respect to increasing sanctions and military support to the Ukraine.  China and India remain two global powers who have not engaged in punitive measures against Russia, nor have they provided direct support to Ukraine. Another unknown at this time is whether Turkey will close the Black Sea to additional Russian maritime forces.  
It is clear that outside Russia, at least, Russia has not managed to control the strategic narrative for this war nor have dis/mis information campaigns been effective widening divisions in Western responses.  In fact the opposite appear to be true as this action has created unity in NATO and the European community, at least in the short term.
Operational Level:
- As of 72 hours into the war there is evidence that Russia has not achieved air superiority, information/cyber superiority, decision superiority or effectively eroded the Ukrainian infrastructure (military or civilian) or power centers of gravity at the operational or tactical level.  Russian advances on a multi-pronged assault have made modest gains however it appears that some lines of advance may have stalled. 
- Russian casualties are likely high (again very hard to get specifics) or at least higher than expected.
- There are indications that Russian logistical systems have failed in some locations, whether this is an indicator of isolated issues or a broader issue remains unknown.  Evidence of fuel shortages has been presented suggesting disruption in operational LOCs
- Russian forces are currently of questionable quality along some axis of advance at least based on captured POWs.  Further based on largely anecdotal evidence, it appears that Russia has not employed a form of Mission Command, nor really provided any detailed SA to some Russian tactical units (again based on POW interviews).
- Latest reports are that heavy concentrations of artillery are forming one the outskirts of Kyiv, which could signal a shift in strategy from a "knock out maneuver" toward a more "shock and awe" approach, or the Russians have essentially opted for an attritional approach to Kyiv at least. 
- Ukrainian forces have demonstrated a level of lethality and coordination beyond expectations of open source analysts and likely Russian planners.  How much of this is do to outside support and how much is due to Russian setback remains unclear.  
Tactical:
- Ukrainian forces have broadcast examples of both ambush and deep strike, the role of specific military capability remains vague.   The effectiveness next gen ATGM systems and MANPADs remains unknown but reported high armored vehicle casualties indicate they have been effective.
Overall Summary:  As of the first 72 hours of the war, it appears that the Russian military has overestimated its own capabilities and/or the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance and has not likely met the timelines it had set during pre-war planning.  The assessment is that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in the outcome of this war and if Russian forces are not about to take Kyiv and inflict some serious damage to the Ukrainian people's will, their own strategic center of gravity will become more vulnerable. 
Did I miss anything?  Seriously, jump in.

So I get up, US west coast time, do big dog walk in the woods, some chores, and then sit down to the most informative and clear thinking Ukraine war coverage available -- this thread! 
Y'all are really something.  Thanks much! 

I believe we are in the state known as Schroedinger's Straits. The Straits are neither open nor closed until examined by an observer. 
Kidding aside I posted that info because it seems to me like attacks on neutral shipping in the Black Sea have changed Ankara's calculus. At the beginning of the conflict the answer seemed to be a "hard no." Today, for Zelensky to have misunderstood Ankara's position means that the answer isn't as cut and dry as it was before. Seems to suggest a very real chance that the straits could indeed be shut. 

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 
All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

Gents a gentle prod we are keeping this thread open by talking about Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine 🇺🇦 

I am ashamed of the actions of my government, I hoped to the last that there would be no war and this is just a bluff. Now anti-war rallies are taking place all over Russia, no one supports this war, there are a bunch of idiots who support it, but I assure you that the majority of the population is AGAINST THIS WAR. 
I honestly empathize with Ukrainians, but in no case will I rejoice at the death of our Russian soldiers! Young guys who could live a long life and do so much good in life, and not die for the sake of crazy ideas. 
 


 

 

 


 

Hear, hear! These posts are the best proof of the international community here in the Battlefront, regardless of some who seem to be intent on just sowing discord.