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Combatintman

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  1. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Shadrach in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More boom, boom, boom from Ukrainian gunners.  Target is Russian troops in Sulyhivka.  The image below is Google Earth roughly oriented to the starting angle of camera:

    Footage:
    Google Earth placemark:
    Sulyhivka.kmz
    General Orientation Overview:

    Strapped for time so not much analysis I'm afraid - at least one tank and between at least half a dozen and dozen AFVs, some of which being MTLB variants.
  2. Upvote
    Combatintman reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Heavy fighting around Oskil, with RU side sources claiming 1000 UA troops 'trapped' against the Donets river.
    However, it appears the 81 Brigade withdrew.
    Oh, and note:  Sviatohyrsk, and that forested hill I keep rabbiting on about.... The brigade walked 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) Saturday, camouflaged in the woods and under crossfire, until their point of retreat at Sviatoguirsk.
    For a month, the 81st -- whose motto is "always first" -- battled to push back the Russian advance in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region where Moscow's troops move forward slowly, taking villages one by one... At the start of the war, they spent a month defending Izium, which fell on April 1, before joining the fighting around the village of Oleksandrivka.
    "Everyone understands that we must guard the line here, we cannot let the enemy move closer, we try to hold it with all our force," says lieutenant Yevgen Samoylov, anxious that the unit could be hit by Russian fire at any point.
    "As you can hear, the enemy is very, very near," he says, pointing to the sky. The line of Russian tanks is on the other side of a hill, around seven kilometres (4.3 miles) away.
    At 21 years old, Samoylov, an officer from the Odessa military academy, finds himself managing 130 conscripts, often twice his age.
    When the convoy passes a truck loaded with long-range missiles dashing to the front, the soldiers automatically make a "V" sign for victory with their fingers before fixing their gaze once more on their feet or the horizon in silence.
    Soldiers cannot use their phones on the front, and any application that requires geolocation is banned.
    Oh, and 5 days after entering it, the RA finally secures Yampil (SE of Lyman). For all the good it seems it will do them....
     
    I don't know this guy's sources very well yet, so... bread and salt.
  3. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from IICptMillerII in Benefits and risks of hull down battle positions   
    It is a matter of taste, perception and implementation.  The Hull Down command in CMx1 was apparently quite good, I don't remember the intricasies myself but it seemed to work pretty much as designed; however, CMx2 is a lot more detailed in its modelling which makes things like hunt and hull down more tricky to implement in a way that satisfied players.  Some very experienced and highly skilled players such as @Bil Hardenberger eschew the Hull Down command in favour of using a series of other commands to get their unit/vehicle to a point that they have identified is Hull Down in relation to the direction the unit/vehicle will face or hull down in relation to where the enemy might be pointing a day ruining weapon system.  I am not a good player and rarely play the game other than testing scenarios so my comments in relation to whether Hunt-Slow-Pause combinations work better than Hull Down should be taken in that context.  My preference is to use a combination system rather than Hull Down but. I have seen Hull Down do the job on many occasions.
    The sum of the parts is that it is not a case of coming up with a 'Don't Get Shot' (or whatever it is going to be called) command to replace Hull Down it is more one of deciding how much you are bothered by your troops getting zapped and working out whether Hull Down or another sequence of the available commands is the best solution to assuage your concerns.
  4. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.


    Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.
  5. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from MSBoxer in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In simple terms ... decidedly average.  Now that is a sweeping statement because the army is a broad church in which some jobs require more current knowledge than others but, if the professionals are gash then it is a fair assumption that the reservists will be totally gash.
  6. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'll pitch in on this debate but I'll be light on gunnery because we have some well-qualified people who should rightly be deferred to.  What prompted me to look was @TheVulture's remark about 'clutter' and I thought it was worth seeing if I could unpick it ... in short I couldn't.  However, what I have not seen in the debate are the observations below ...

    Going back to 'clutter' there is possibly at least one other vehicle in the rough area of my 'moving vehicle' annotation.
    To pitch in on the HQ piece ... if I had to set a brigade HQ up in that area ... I would put it about 1km away.

     
  7. Upvote
    Combatintman reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

    Random observations:
    The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
    The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
    Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
    Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
     


  8. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  9. Upvote
    Combatintman reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Life is hard, it is harder when stupid.  So we have been staring at this whole Izyum/Lyman front for weeks now and I can't figure out how they landed on this as the optimum front.    The terrain all along here is a nightmare coming from the east.  The North and West obviously swallow up formations the Russian did not have but even if they did achieve manoeuvre, the stuff coming from Kreminna is bottled up until you can take Slovyansk, as they have found out.
    This whole operation has a Rube Goldberg feel to it, with no aggressive recon phase, no operational pre-conditions (which frankly after two months of watching the Russians may as well be science fiction to them) and manoeuvre scheme built on hope, a thousand points of failure and weak logistics.  All over some of the worst terrain in the country, short of urban.
    The tactical shortcomings are there for everyone to see, and we have talked a lot about strategic; however, it is the operational level of warfare that is a complete train wreck for the RA in this war as well.
  10. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two BTGs in play pushing east and south if UAWarData is correct and looking at the size of both places they will culminate if the Ukrainians are still up there and defending them.

     
    Note I have ignored the BTG IVO Pasika because the report you quote makes no mention of Sosnove which is on any axis that would be used to come into Oleksandrivka from the south.  Bottom line any attempt to bridge at Sviatorhirsk, like most other possible operations in this part of Ukraine, is not within the capabilities of the forces available to the Russians if the Ukrainians choose to contest the ground.  I appreciate that this is a statement I make frequently so for context if we apply the three attackers to one defender ratio that most wargamers are familiar with when they are trying to maximise their chances of victory in a QB, it is blatantly obvious that a company each in Krymky and Oleksandrivka will render those two BTGs combat ineffective.  When you look at what's elsewhere on the graphic above and consider that Sviatohirsk, again defended by a company, will require at least two BTGs to cross then you can see what I mean.
    If we look at Sosnove, which is an important node en route to Sviatohirsk - it is more of a rail junction than anything else but is certainly not great manoeuvre terrain and again a Ukrainian company-sized unit could easily defeat/delay in the area.

  11. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two BTGs in play pushing east and south if UAWarData is correct and looking at the size of both places they will culminate if the Ukrainians are still up there and defending them.

     
    Note I have ignored the BTG IVO Pasika because the report you quote makes no mention of Sosnove which is on any axis that would be used to come into Oleksandrivka from the south.  Bottom line any attempt to bridge at Sviatorhirsk, like most other possible operations in this part of Ukraine, is not within the capabilities of the forces available to the Russians if the Ukrainians choose to contest the ground.  I appreciate that this is a statement I make frequently so for context if we apply the three attackers to one defender ratio that most wargamers are familiar with when they are trying to maximise their chances of victory in a QB, it is blatantly obvious that a company each in Krymky and Oleksandrivka will render those two BTGs combat ineffective.  When you look at what's elsewhere on the graphic above and consider that Sviatohirsk, again defended by a company, will require at least two BTGs to cross then you can see what I mean.
    If we look at Sosnove, which is an important node en route to Sviatohirsk - it is more of a rail junction than anything else but is certainly not great manoeuvre terrain and again a Ukrainian company-sized unit could easily defeat/delay in the area.

  12. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The bridge near the monastery, according to your other quoted graphic, remains intact and is a Class 60 plus bridge.  The Twitter image is confusing to the untrained eye because of the angle at which it is taken so the "I don't think it its intended for driving" comment is what I would politely call 'questionable.'  The confusion is due to the road deck of the bridge being obscured by the foreground bridge railing.


    Personally I think you're trying to take the Lord of the Rings thing (Orcs and caves) too far with this one.  It is a difficult river crossing in a place the Russians don't have to assault if the target is Slovyansk because there are already BTGs that can get there from positions west of that crossing.  Sure they could drive at it with the intent of trapping units that might be rattling around the Oleksandrivka area but there was some reporting a few days back that suggested that Ukraine's 57 Motorised Brigade, which had been previously consistently reported there, had already withdrawn.
  13. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Now if you turn on the BTGs in the Izyum salient area - you arrive at 16, which is a figure I recall assessing as a top end number of BTGs in the area quite a few days back.

    The question now being (well its always been the question) is it enough?  The assessment remains pretty much the same as my initial assessment - getting to Barvinkove is going to consume 2-3 BTGs and the fight for Barvinkove should consume about the same number.  If, as I assess, the intent is to hook east to flank Slovyansk, then there are enough towns/villages along that route to consume at least another 4-5 BTGs.  Going down the direct axis to Slovyansk will also likely consume 2-3 BTGs and taking Slovyansk at least 4-5 and I'm being generous to the Russians here.  From what I'm tracking, at least two and possibly three of those BTGs are probably incapable of offensive operations having suffered attrition during their recent push.
    Recent actions prove that every small town/village that is contested by the Ukrainians consumes one BTG and takes 2-3 days to clear.  There then seems to be a pause of 2-3 days before the ahem ... juggernaut resumes offensive operations.  As I've said earlier, blitzkrieg this ain't and 'Slovyansk by May 09' is not an achievable timeline assuming of course that the Ukrainians contest in the manner expected.  This is more bite, hold, reset, bite hold, reset.  In the reset periods, the Russian Air Force comes into play and watching what they're hitting seems to be a reasonable indicator of which town/village is next for 'de-nazification.'
  14. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Not sure I understand the question but the original map said that the intact bridges were the green shaded area which is slightly south of the actual bridges where there is a a mobility corridor marking in blue in the correct place for the bridges.  Hopefully this answers the question ...

  15. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.
    Location:
    Intact Bridges.kmz
    Satellite View:

    Oblique view looking SW-NE

  16. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Boche in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  17. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.
    Location:
    Intact Bridges.kmz
    Satellite View:

    Oblique view looking SW-NE

  18. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  19. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its why the games are without par.
  20. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Its why the games are without par.
  21. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  22. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from OldSarge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  23. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Sarjen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  24. Like
    Combatintman got a reaction from Phantom Captain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
  25. Upvote
    Combatintman got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Way ahead of you ...

    Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.
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