rocketman

not to get too snarky, but I suppose if LePen were elected these weapons would've been sent to the Russians?  I thank all the gods she did not win, both for Ukraine and for the world.

Middle income traps...western world, to your own house look.  I am not sure where this leaves the west.  We have definitely united but the divisions are still there, just watch the news. 
I am almost convinced we are already in a version of a Cold War, but nothing like the last one.  Maybe more like pre-WWI competition to be honest.  The lines are definitely drawn and I do not think we come out of this "normal".
I think China is paying very close attention to this war, but are going to take away different conclusions other than "fear us".  My bet is that they will note how "not to" take on the west but also "how to better".  I too, do not believe China is an unstoppable power that is simply going to roll us over; however, their trajectory is as impressive as the global rise of the US during the end of the 19th century.  
I disagree on Chinese global power.  Not militarily but economically they are stretching out very far, the evidence on this is significant.  Further, I am not at all convinced that China was surprised by this, we have no idea what their intelligence apparatus really looks like or what they knew or did not.  Considering the US was pushing out so much, I doubt they did not have internal intel validation as well. 
So what? Well to be honest the one area that concerns me the most with respect to China's rise and this emerging conflict/competition - "confletition?", is that if all war is: vision/certainty, communication, negotiation, and sacrifice, who has the sacrifice advantage?  Based on the state of the west right now, I am coming to the uncomfortable conclusion that it is not us.  We talk about the middle-class trap in China, our western societies are so entitled right now that we are seeing mass protests on public health mandates, all the while if anyone gets sick at these things they had better have free healthcare to take care of them.  The west is at least 2 generations from having to actually fight for itself on the scope and scale we are seeing in Ukraine, maybe 3 and we have become highly entitled.  We will not willingly sacrifice much, even in the face of a global pandemic, let alone a greyish global power competition.  China, I strongly suspect, is playing on a different field entirely when it comes to what they are willing to sacrifice to continue to expand, and that is something to be very concerned about.
   

There is a seed of a very important point here - No, we cannot trust anything Russia is saying...because they are the enemy.  I am not sure it has sunk in yet within the western world but at some point -some argue from the very beginning- this whole thing has become a war between Russia and the Western Global Order.  If the May 9th things happens or not, we are already in an undeclared war between Russia, its allies, and the western world.  Ukraine gets the unfortunate distinction of being the battleground but this thing does not end if either Russia takes the entire nation, or is kicked out of the entire nation of Ukraine; this is a violent collision of irreconcilable certainties as to how the world will be ordered into the latter half of the 21st century.
I strongly suspect that we are seeing orders of magnitude proxy happening here.  Ukraine is one, Russia is the other.  And I am not going all "conspiracy theory" here but the other great world power is watching this all in the background and seeing a lot of wins as outcomes.  China is not only tacitly supporting Russia and, it is grabbing up all that US intel - a brilliant move to beat Russia to the punch, but risky in its exposure to China, a risk I am sure the US was aware of.  It could be argued that China is staying on the side lines because it has the most to gain in this collision, and it is likely in its interests to keep it going until Russia is burned out and pulled into its sphere further as a weakened and dependent partner.
This also sets up for further economic incursion into Europe as there is nothing illegal with Chinese owned oil and gas, coming out of Russian soil, being bought by Europe.  Our sanctions are against Russian corporations.  As this thing expands and intensifies, I am starting to see a Chinese long-game emerge as Russian and Western world drive whatever is left of Russia into the Eastern orbit.  I personally would have thought this impossible given culture and history but here we are.
As to the current fight, this is very much us vs them and will be long after the shooting stops in Ukraine itself.  Welcome to the Complicated War 1.
  

Supposed to.  Of course the state of their logistics is also in serious question.  Oryx is showing they are coming up on 900 logistics vehicles gone.  A quick scan of re-fuelers takes me to 95, and that is not counting the 285 vehicles so badly damaged they cannot be confirmed as what they were when they walk among the living.
A BTG looks like it has 2-3 re-fuelers per:
At 95 confirmed losses, we are talking roughly 30 BTGs worth of re-fuelers, that is 1/3 of the overall initial invasion force.  But that is ok cause that invasion force lost most of its tanks anyway.
And then this, plus Donetsk half-manned BTGs, leads to the large, awkward question - and I am talking "night-after surprise cousins" awkward - "Why would anyone try an operational pincer with a broken shoulder?!"
Look, before anyone wonders, I want Russia to lose and lose so bad that they either remove Putin and try to re-normalize, or we just accept Cold War 2.0 and they can become a Chinese gas station.  My assessment is that Russia is losing, to the point that they have lost this war and just haven't decided "how bad".  No, my issue here is one of professional disgust at this freakin amateur hour job; it is the worst the military profession can be, getting a lot of people killed for nothing.  We have like one supreme rule in this gig - get the job done as quickly and cleanly as possible.  The second a military is not trying to do this, they do not deserve the honor of the name "military" as they are essentially a heavily armed mob.
Throw in what is looking more like a culture of war crimes, and the Russian's can mobilize every fighting age person they have and they will still only have an undisciplined mob, not a fighting force.  

Heh... Good morning, mr.Horowitz . This law was passed two months ago. Many TD units already moved to the eastern and northern regions. 

During the war 2014-2015, especially during Debaltsevo battle radio operators of 128th mountain brigade from Transcarpatia spoke on own local dialect - crazy mix of Ukrainain, Russian, Hungarian and local dialectisms. The same did units from Western Ukraine - they also spoke on Halicia dialect, so Russians thought "the Polish merceneries fought against them"

Ensuring the Kherson Peoples Republic never comes to fruition is probably the most important goal. It will spook Crimea, be a decisive blow to Putin’s wargoals, empower further Ukrainian occupied resistance, and impart to all potential collaborators to not rise.

Hey LongLeft, I generally agree w your analysis here.  Except that it aint liberals who are the problem in the west when it comes to supporting democracy & freedom.  Biden & Obama haven't been kissing Putin's ass, that other feller and his enablers are the ones doing that.  I am sure there's some lefties calling for no war at all cost.  There's been a daily peace protest by a bunch of old hippies in front of the county courthouse in my town for years now, and I saw them the other day w signs about Ukraine, wanting to negotiate -- as if that's an option!  But those lefties are the fringe, not the mainstream.
So how about you think before you throw around these outdated tropes?  It's not the lefties that were trying to destroy NATO, wreck western partnerships,  and empower Putin for four recent long years.  The most popular nightly news commentary show on TV is so pro-Putin it'd be banned on this forum -- and its viewers are all righties, not lefties.
But overall, keep up the good work, I do really like your posts.

About drone usage, there was interesting interview of Aerorozvidka volunteer UAV unit commader. There is no need to give all text here in Ukrainan, so main things:
- Ukrainan units have huge advantage in tactical drones of close and average zone. He says in some moments about half-dozen of DJI or AUTEL drones can fly over battelfield. Russians have small drones like Granat and Zala, but only in special units like recons, when UKR units sometime have commercial drones even on the level of mech.platoon (but most usual of course are recons, AT-teams, HQs, mortars etc). In avarage class we are using Leleka-100, Furia and PD-1, they all have about 50-100 km of range and 1,5-2 hours of endurance.
- But the main problem - Russia has huge advantage in operative level drones. This is about Orlan-10. It can fly 16 hours and sneak up to 600 km in autonomous mode (120 km in guiding mode). It can carry various equipment - optic, thermal, ELINT, SIGINT, EW. New modification, which was adopted since 2017 alraedy has 5500 m of ceiling instead 5000 m, its control lines became more stable for EW, so UKR forces have minimal chances to shot down or to hijack new version of Orlan-10 if the weather is clear and Orlan flies over 5000 m. Even our newest EW systems often can't do nothing. Our commander said Orlans is hovering like a bees over battlefield and monitoring situation on battlefierld almost all 24 hours. This caused many problems on open terrain, because Russian HQs get information and transmit it to artillery
- TB2 Bayraktars became to use mostly for recon missions and don't approach to frontline too close. Since the war became more positional, Russians deployed many AD assets like TOR and Pantsyr, which dangerous for TB2. Today's operation near Zmiinyi island became possible only after destroying of Moskva cruiser (huge floating SAM platform) and destroying of AD assets on the island. But on the other hand TB2 already several times used for strikes against facilities on Russian territory. 2 or 3 TB2 were shot down. 
- Other problem the same both of UKR and RUS - low integration level of drones to weapon systems and information systems of battle control, especially for close zone drones. For example, only Furia can make targeting and automatic fire adjustment. Other drones can maintain only visual adjustment and if you need to know coordinates with better accuracy than "on eye" from the screen, you should return drone back, take a memory card and visually match the image with a map.     

It's really "terribly important". As a part of continent it allows to move our economic zome further to the sea - during contest with Romania for the shelf, reach of natural gas, we proved in Internatinal Arbitration that Zmiinyi (Snake) is a continent, not a rock, as Romania insisted - this allowed to achieve decision, wich kept most part of the claimed shelf as Ukrainain economical zone
Zmiinyi also situates nearby close to traffic routes to our ports and not only ours. So, whoever conrols Zmiinyi, controls shipping to the the Black Sea and Danube ports. Radar, AD/artillery assets, small base for patrol ships - all this can provide this island.  

Uups...
 
 

Looks like the Russians want to create a second Holodomor. The picture I get while reading the posts confirms that. Beginning to look like ethnic cleansing. All these massacres, deportations and other violence convinces me this is no ordinary war and we should stop thinking about it that way.

Appearently in Kherson region the Russians noticed unrest and a general lack of USSR nostalgica. A Lenin monument was errected in response some weeks ago.
Its good to know they act so efficiently on problems that matter

Way ahead of you ...

Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.

Finally something lighthearted, as an A-10 fanboy: 
 

If Russia defaults, bad things happen. How bad is hard to say. If they default once, theyll probably take a permanent hit to their credit rating and, even if they regain access to the world financial market, will find they have to pay higher interest on their new debts. More people will think Russian debt is junk or too risky, so fewer will buy, so Russia will have to pay more to sell its bonds, so ultimately Russia will have to issue more debt to raise the same amount of cash. If were talking a few percentage points that sucks, .1% on $1b is 1mil. Doesnt sound like much, but obv it adds up. Assuming Russia doesn't miss too many bond payments AND assuming it can actually pay for the debt at some point, not so bad. More like if you miss a credit card payment than miss default on your mortgage. 
But if Russia starts to miss lots of bond payments, if it spends its warchest on, well, the war and cannot pay back its creditors once it is able, or if once it gets back on the world credit market it decides that the USD is bull**** and it wants to only pay in Rubles, worse things can happen. An interest rate rise of 1% is rough. Of 10% or more is fatal, it would probably ruin the Russian state's finances for a decade or more. If their credit is seen as too dangerous or too risky they may also run into a lack of willing buyers. The people with the kind of capital a state needs to stay afloat are few and far between. If New York looks at a Russian bond issue and says "too risky for my blood" it doesn't matter what the Russian interest rate is. This is the 'sky is falling' outcome. In 1916 Russia was paying a massive interest on its debts, and of course was kept afloat by this huge and convoluted lending scheme in which money traveled from London banks, to the Treasure, to the French Treasury, to Paris banks, to Russian accounts, to the Russian state. And in 1917 this system broke down. Literally overnight the Tsar's bonds went from real things of financial value to very nice collectable art, and the market never recovered. If you held that bond, your value went from thousands or millions to whatever the going rate of TP was. International creditors will panic if they think this is the case, and screw Russia out of the market until some kind of stability is restored. 
In that case Russia has two solutions (one of which they have available now). First is China. Obviously they can borrow massive sums from China, and China would love to lend. But there are risks in borrowing from China. First the Yuan is a **** currency. Its exchange rate is pegged squarely on what China wants it to be, often keeping it artificially low to benefit exporters. To stave off economic disaster China has, in the past, just unilaterally changed the exchange rate. If you hold large quantities of Yuan, say if youre a sovereign country who is selling their bonds on the Chinese market in exchange for Yuan, well a big and sudden swing in the exchange rate could cost you no joke billions. Second, China is an untrustworthy lender. Their debt is far more expensive than Euro-American debt because London and New York just want cash for cash. But Beijing wants more. Maybe theyll give Russia a sweethart interest rate (cool!) but in exchange demand a portion of Gazprom is sold off to Chinese investors, diverting profits from oligarchs to.... well... Chinese oligarchs. You could see how this would be bad for Putin. And of course if you limit yourself to one source, you run the risk of getting trapped. Maybe today China is your friend. And maybe tomorrow a huge ball of oil is found under Vladivostok. Now China isn't so friendly, but you still need them for your bond issues. This is like the Germany Gas situation but 10 times worse. So the other solution? Go nuclear. Print money. Pay everything in useless Rubles. Default. Go through a massive period of deflation (which is the real killer). Try not to get shot in the prosses. You know just Weimar stuff. 

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx
 

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx
 

According to Polish state radio, Poland sent over 200 T-72s to Ukraine, as well as "several tens (dozens? no english term for it I think)" of BMP-1s. Apparently T-72s sent are mostly the unmodrnized ones, so basic M1s. If we are to give more, there still should be about 100 T-72M1Rs with thermals, and then 230 PT-91s, but we'd need some Abramses as replacements.
https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1223/Artykul/2948125,Polska-przekazala-Ukrainie-ponad-200-czolgow-To-niejedyne-wsparcie

I need to do a MSFS flyover around Lyman, terrain wise that look like and attackers nightmare.  I honestly expect the Russian advances to bog down at Slovyanks.  They might try a bypass from the northern axis but my money is on the Great Russian Donbas offensive grinding to halt on the outskirts of that town.

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx
 

and China (and the world) have learned a very important lesson:  Putin can not be trusted as a business partner.  If you become dependent on what he has, he will use as a device for extortion.  China might be fine getting some below market stuff, but would they ever make themselves dependent on Putin?  I sure wouldn't

It's actually Steve that said this but quoting the quote gets wonky 🙂
There were several times we got on planes and were not told, for security leak reasons, where we were going until we were on the planes and the engines were running. Actually more than several. Some training. A few real. Then the maps came out and planning started while we were in the air. (it was always far enough away for plenty of time)
The only time we ended up in a different place than briefed was on a jump right on Ft Bragg for training. We were supposed to be dropped (my 6 man team) on one of the sandy flights trips in the woods surrounded by tall pine trees. It was totally socked in. I was the first one in the door (only officer so that's what you do). Jumpmaster leans out, looks, leans back in, looks at me, leans out, leans back in "I can't see $h1t, sir"  All I could see was white out the door over his shoulder. (the Jumpmaster is supposed to verify the drop zone). Green light comes on. I tapped him on the shoulder, pointed to the green light and he yells "STANDINTHEDOORGO!!!" So I went. 
About 100 ft above the ground we finally came out of the clouds and I realized we were landing on the biggest drop zone on Fort Bragg - it's like 2.5 miles long and 3/4 mile wide, clear sand with just shrubs. Whew!! Thank God. And then "I hope someone told our driver"  They did.  Pilots didn't bother to let us know we were dropping 10 miles from where we were supposed to. But those flight strips are 500m long and about 50m wide surrounded by telephone pole pine trees. It would have been ugly.
OK. War stories over.
Dave

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx
 

Someone posted some great artwork in the "How hot is Ukraine gonna get"-thread and I decided to make a menu mod from one.

Not in line with the game timeline, but I've seen some "Z"-mods around so maybe not that wrong after all. In the spirit of "Glory to Ukraine".
Get it from link below for now and maybe @Bootie can put it up on CMMODS.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/tv1mmdga7mvqxz7efk0a4/h?dl=0&rlkey=xst5yo7ey3kagj3zu6no23zxx