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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The same can say about UKR infantry. But this is not sign of cowardice. The armor, especially in attack gives a confidence to infantry. The losses of armor reduce confidence, thus reduce motivation, especailly if this conscript/green troops with motivation low than avarage and their commander w/o any strong abilities ) 
    In the warfare of 2014-2015 both sides often stopped own attacks after the loss of several armored vehciles. 
  2. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry but this makes very little sense from a couple perspectives.  I am not sure why so many people need to somehow find a dark genius in Putin's actions and strategy.  I guess some have invested so much in making him the boogey-man that their own interests are at stake here while others sound like they are on the Russian payroll.
    So internally, starting a war and then losing it has never been a smart path to reinforcing internal control.  The worse one loses the more internal (not less) internal tension it creates.  This reinforces the idea that a quick war may have solved some of those internal issues.  Why try and suppress free press when they are crowing a quick victory parade in Kyiv?  So the idea that this was all a clever ploy to get a better domestic grip does not make a lot of sense unless you can get a quick win, which did not happen.  Every day Russia bleeds in Ukraine makes things worse, not better.
    Resource grab.  Well first off, if this was the aim they missed it:

    https://www.flandersinvestmentandtrade.com/export/sites/trade/files/market_studies/Ukrainian Energy Market_0.pdf
    Russia already had the Crimea.  It might have grabbed that thin sliver in the south and took a few nibbles from that big eastern field but the majority of that field is still in Ukrainian hands.  This might have been a goal on the initial invasion but the debacle we have seen unfold for a month now does not support an oil and gas grab strategy.
    Further, resource-wise this makes little sense.  Russia is sitting on 4.8% (ish - number swings around depending where you look), while Ukraine has a whopping .06%.  Gas is even crazier with Russia at 25% and Ukraine at .6% (https://www.worldometers.info/gas/#:~:text=There are 6%2C923 trillion cubic,levels and excluding unproven reserves).
    Why on earth would Putin risk the massive sanctions, which further exacerbate his domestic troubles, in order to try and grab a fraction of a ridiculously small share of oil and gas?  There are significant Black Sea reserves (https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/02/28/as-russia-closes-in-on-crimeas-energy-resources-what-is-next-for-ukraine/?sh=5ef9b6d829cd) but why wage a freakin land war all over the place if all you want to do is exploit offshore gas in a region where you already have vast naval superiority?
    Finally, how exactly has Putin achieved any of these strategic aims thus far?  He has to try and keep a lid on over 10k dead (and times-3 wounded) to avoid domestic pressures, increasing economic failure due to sanctions - leading to domestic pressure, and zero to show for it in "black gold", that you can only sell to China - who is going to gut you price-wise - thanks to said sanctions.  
    There is no master plan here, or at least not anymore.  Being an ex-KGB autocrat, Putin demonstrate acumen at subversion strategies; however, on this one he tried to "go loud" and is likely suffering from Dunning-Kruger shock right now as he slowly realizes that he is nowhere near as smart as his cronies have been telling him. 
     
  3. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Reportedly they dug trenches in so called Red forest and lived there about month. This place still deadly dangerous to this time. Even if you take a tour in Chernobyl or Prypyat', the guide track you, that you didn't go in the places when to this time enough high level of radoactive pollution.   
  4. Thanks
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I honestly do not know.  Ukraine is in a tricky situation right now. Unless they want this thing to drag on for months they need Russia to have an out (as in "get  the hell out") but at the same time they need to keep up the pressure so that Russia does not get too comfortable.
    Second to this I am not sure about UA offensive combat power.  This hybrid/crowd sourced warfare worked very well in basically integrating a bunch of local defence into a living nightmare for invading forces.  If they can somehow point that at something and get it moving we then have to see how it does against conventional troops dug in WW1 style.  My honest bet is this will look like steady chewing until they see an opportunity for an operational move (if they see one).  But again too large a gesture and Russia might dig in a choose the hard way.
    UA will definitely pursue c-moves, my bet would be around Kyiv as top priority and then any other major urban centers they can to get the guns out of range.  Then once they do that then it will depend what the political level want to demonstrate.  I am not sure the UA can do large scale offensive actions, it will be Xmas morning if they can take their current approach on the road in a big way.
    Donbas (DR/LR) are definitely in play, but I gotta tell you I honestly think Crimea is off the table.  The West was ready to basically live with it, I am sure Ukraine is still pissed but we are talking Sevastopol and the Russians are not going to give that up.  As you point out the Russians might just play the race card and declare it an attack on the homeland, which not only means mobilization but we might still get a chance to see them WMDs we were all worried about.  And I am not sure the West would see a tac nuke on a UA offensive in the Crimea in the same light.  We were definitely not cool with killing civilians but UA conventional troops advancing on Russian soil makes this really awkward and weird because every nuclear power has pretty much declared they will do the same thing.  It probably also explains why we have not seen deep attacks into Belarus and Russia before now, all those railyards are actually in drone range.
    So stay strapped in cause it could still get wackier.
  5. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Chief of the staff is a main deputy of unit commander (battalion and higher). There is deputy of commander exists, but he has more administrative and training process organization duties.
    Chief of the staff is a "brain" of unit. He receives all information from battlefield area, establishes control over subordinated units, analyzes information and gives recommendations to the unit comamnder, on the basis of which the latter assumes decisions 
    In Soviet/Russian army chief of the staff had/has own deputy.
    In Ukrainian army deputy of chief of the staff (on battalion level) is a chief of combat control group, which consists of several officers.    
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just stay out of the topic if you're going to post something like that here. 
  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Knee capping itself won't mean they will die of their wounds, but they won't be walking home.  It was a common practice for the IRA dealing with drug dealers. It is wrong, but I can't find it in me to condemn when you have this stuff going on. 
    'We Will Not Be Silent': MP Speaks Out Amid Claims Russian Soldiers Are Raping Ukrainian Women (msn.com)
    With the BS coming out of the Kremlin I doubt that incident will have that much impact as I am sure their leadership is telling them worse.
     
    Meanwhile
    'Caught them by surprise': Ukraine troops take Kharkiv village (msn.com)
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    At the rate Russia is wrecking it's army and economy I think Monaco will qualify.  
  9. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, this is a village Lukyanivka in 45 km from eastern Kyiv city limit  
    There is a male name Lukyan, from which derived both names - a village (and many other villages with the same name) and historiacal name of the part of Kyiv.
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  11. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just seen this as an enhancement to help students understand the countries in Europe. 
    Made me smile.
     

  12. Upvote
    Holien reacted to George MC in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Same issue another take on effect of western sanctions  
     
  13. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Commanderski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just seen this as an enhancement to help students understand the countries in Europe. 
    Made me smile.
     

  14. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 😉
  15. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Bearstronaut in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    John IMO you are being a useful Russian stooge once again...
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/10/twitter-deletes-russian-embassys-posts-calling-an-apparent-pregnant-ukraine-hospital-victim-a-crisis-actor/?sh=6e323ee73c2b
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60589965
    As Womble politely asked you please engage what critical thought process you have
    The truth is out there..... (Just not on certain US TV channels...)
     
  16. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    John IMO you are being a useful Russian stooge once again...
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/03/10/twitter-deletes-russian-embassys-posts-calling-an-apparent-pregnant-ukraine-hospital-victim-a-crisis-actor/?sh=6e323ee73c2b
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60589965
    As Womble politely asked you please engage what critical thought process you have
    The truth is out there..... (Just not on certain US TV channels...)
     
  17. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  18. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  19. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  20. Like
    Holien got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  21. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Baneman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    May 9 will be fun.
     

  22. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from kraze in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  23. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from BletchleyGeek in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  24. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok just seen this and it made me smile.
     

  25. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Erwin I think you need to really engage your critical analysis process and understand what has been happening and as Steve says read this thread and understand. (I suspect too much time watching certain TV news stations who once again have egg on their face pushing lies)
    IMO you are soo far from the ballpark that it is embarrassing.
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