Incredible Footage

[Schmoly War]

Last Grozny assault -

The Russian army in the last assault had used a trick, Russian headquarters inculcate misinformation about massive assault, and terrorists have put forward a major force in the line of fire, after that Russian army opened heavy artillery fire and terrorist lost 50% of they strength. I want to know how Assad's army use artillery.

Is there a translation of that clip you posted? Id be very interested in having one.

[Saferight]

Agusto there no any rebels, maybe 10%, but 90% it is just Islamite mercenaries, same people which kill Russian soldiers in Chechnya, they all terrorists! If you think they are rebels and victims of bloody Asad Regime, welcome to Russia, come and speak with Russian veterans of Chechen war! This kind of people cutoff heads of Russian soldiers and western journalist!

Heads of British engineers in Chechnya, this do by hands of peaceful rebels and freedom fighters.

http://youtu.be/1_z6KozvJDg

i have nothing to say for the conduct of Russian Federal Forces and the Russian Government in the north caucasus since 1991 the history is very clear an can speak for itself, if you can accept the truth. I think most honest human beings can find it disgusting what was done by the most militant sections of the resistance in the north caucasus an the Russian forces. Except for that fact an maybe weaponry and tactics it has no place being brought up with whats happening in Syria.

[baron Jacquinot]

Is there a translation of that clip you posted? Id be very interested in having one.

No, I don't know about translation of this clip, but the main point is that Russian commanders had to leave civilians out of Grozny, which, in turn, actively use artillery to suppress defense lines and pockets of resistance. The assault lasted 3 days, and on all town cleaning out a month. Russian losses amounted to 120 killed and 380 wounded, terrorist lost 1700 - 3700 killed.

[Lanzfeld]

That city is completely trashed.

[Schmoly War]

Syria - FSA tank destroyed by SAA in Daraa 9/3

(graphic)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEgCWaz0ju8

Upgraded T-72M1 of Syrian Army. The Second Interview. (English subtitles). The AA gun doesnt seem to be operable from the inside.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=udH9uveEQOY

[agusto]

T-72 destroyed by RPG-7, shooters perspective:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VM_ckeeV_o&list=PL063D5Uzz1ZTGkxPjmXdhe_VHF54xanFN

The most deadly missile of the FSA:

[baron Jacquinot]

T-72 destroyed by RPG-7, shooters perspective:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VM_ckeeV_o&list=PL063D5Uzz1ZTGkxPjmXdhe_VHF54xanFN

The most deadly missile of the FSA:

I can't recognize what is it, but looks like T-55 or something old.

[Vanir Ausf B]

It's old, but it is a T-72M1. The distinctive 7 smoke grenade dischargers visible on the left side of the turret are the giveaway.

[baron Jacquinot]

It's old, but it is a T-72M1. The distinctive 7 smoke grenade dischargers visible on the left side of the turret are the giveaway.

Anyway I don't saw any reactive armor on it.

[black_prince]

SAA tank hit with ATGM, youtube title say's it's a T-72 hit by a Metis. Crewman bails.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LgwkXtGEABQ

Video title says this is a 'Free Tank' destroying another tank. Is the tank firing a T-62?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vSHDzZdWY-8

[Vanir Ausf B]

Video title says this is a 'Free Tank' destroying another tank. Is the tank firing a T-62?

Yep.

T-55: 5 road wheels with a gap between the 1st and 2nd. Bore evacuator on muzzle.

T-62: 5 road wheels, the front 3 more closely spaced than the rear 2. Bore evacuator 2/3 up the barrel.

6 road wheels = T-72

The tank in the first video looks like a T-72 with ERA blocks on the turret.

[Schmoly War]

FPS Syria: Episode 3! Tanks in ambush. (English subtitles)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQGMFCj4QBo

[Nidan1]

And again no infantry around, they want shot all terrorist from tanks? I can't understand.

I'm sure you have realized that 99% of these videos show action in urban locations.

There are no battles going on in open country, which I am sure is the majority of Syria's geography.

Urban battles are meatgrinders, i.e Stalingrad, Sevatopol, Kharkov, Aachen, Berlin to name a few in WW2. More recently Grozny and Fallujah. I'm sure that Syrian Army leaders have enough smarts not to deploy infantry heavy units in these large cities. They would be inviting heavy casualties.

What they are trying to accomplish, I think, is to maintain a hold, however small, on the cities to deny them to the rebels. Pound the towns and cities to rubble, and along with that any safe havens for the rebels.

[Erwin]

Sounds liike the Assad regime is really screwed up if they've resorted to destroying their cities to "deny them to the rebels".

The guy and his family/cronies coulda left with the billions I am sure they've stashed away all over the world. But, no... Hubris and arrogance and they may all go to execution at this rate.

Wouldn't it be great to be a fly on the wall of Assad's bunker. Just to understand how they see interpret what is going on in their world. I wonder if they're being told BS and like Hitler, live in a fantasy world.

[agusto]

The guy and his family/cronies coulda left with the billions I am sure they've stashed away all over the world. But, no... Hubris and arrogance and they may all go to execution at this rate.

Well i guess you get used to power over the years and its hard to give it up. Besides that they could still leave the country and seek refugee somwhere (Russia? Iran?).

[LongLeftFlank]

My prediction, FWIW, is that the Assad clan and the Alawite population will decamp to a new state in the Syrian Levant -- the non-Sunni majority coastlands between Lebanon and Turkey. Protected by the Antitaurus mountains, a defensible natural barrier, and possessing the entire Syrian arsenal as well as the country's best farmland and its only ports, and joined by most of the Christians, Druse and educated Sunnis, this new state will be backed by Iran, Russia, and Greece but also (ironically) by Israel and Turkey. These relationships will defeat any Western sanctions relating to war crimes indictments and brutal ethnic cleansing. Those sanctions will dissolve over time as the division becomes established fact, and the new state may eventually gain widespread formal recognition and a UN seat. Because this state will be multisectarian and the Assads are generally secular in outlook, Iranian influence will fade over time in favour of more practical new alliances with neighbours, including the despised "Zionist entity".

Israel, in fact, could find its regional position somewhat strengthened, as a coastal alliance of Levantine mini-states emerges ("Assadistan", Lebanon, Israel), all feeling mortally threatened by Sunni Arab Salafism, and seeking to develop into modern, high tech economies.

Sanctions notwithstanding, this new, secular state may actually prosper economically in spite of Assad clan corruption and crony capitalism, ongoing warfare and the need to resettle millions of former residents of Damascus, Homs and other Syrian cities. On the other hand, there will be no more need to support a poor, exploding Sunni population so the vestiges of Ba'ath socialism will be abandoned.

The remainder of Syria will become a landlocked Islamic Republic, inevitably dominated by anti-Western Sunni Salafis. However, in practice their radicalism will be hamstrung by tribal factionalism plus the total ruin of their economy by the war. Crude sharia law will be imposed on the population, but local gangsterism and militia rule will defeat all attempts at effective central government. Plus, with the middle classes fleeing hand over fist (taking their capital and knowhow with them), the devastated nation will be completely dependent on subsidies from the Arab oil states.

The most radical (AQ-oriented) elements, being unable to found their fantasy Salafist Caliphate in Damascus, and in any case being far better at fighting than at governing -- will simply fan out to (re)destabilize neighbouring areas: Lebanon, West Bank, Iraq's Anbar, Kurdish Iraq and Turkey and maybe Jordan. That is bad news in general for these areas, but these movements are unlikely to prevail anywhere, since all these areas are governed by unsympathetic regimes with large armies. And the Syrian Islamic Republic won't be able to provide much material support to the "warrior brothers", as it will be mired in low intensity fighting with the Assads -- indeed, like Franco's Spain, it will be only too happy to see these Islamist radicals get killed off elsewhere. So this will be disturbing but inconclusive -- the primary victims will be the poor Sunnis living in these areas.

My two dinars.

[Erwin]

That's a pretty specific two dinars' prediction LLF. You sound like you know of what you speak. Fascinating to see what transpires.

I do find it hard to believe that essentially a new country will be formed, thus creating a land-locked country with a large and increasingly fanatical population who doesn't care about dying. That sounds like it would result in a continuation of what we're seeing now. The Assads fleeing abroad like the Shah seems more plausible. But, I also believe that you may well have better intel.

[Alan8325]

There is the possibility that over time Alawite morale will crumble to the point that they basically surrender all Syrian land to the new Sunni regime, but I believe that's not likely to happen because of the fear of reprisals and the unpalatable Sharia law.

The opposition is large and increasingly fanatical, but they are also poorly equipped and will not have as much local support to hide out and launch attacks and ambushes in the more Alawite and diverse areas to the west. Assad's army right now is very spread out, but if they gradually concentrate in the smaller Alawite areas they will be much harder for the lightly armed opposition to dislodge. That is as long as the opposition doesn't get a heavy weapons infusion from the West. Then things are harder to predict.

[LongLeftFlank]

Nah, Erwin, I have no more inside dope than you do. And I don't see the population as "fanatical", just some of the leadership. The poor Sunni populace of the heartland would be the primary losers in this scenario, although a lot of non-Sunnis would also lose everything (perhaps their lives too) in the subsequent "exchanges of populations".

But unlike Alan and some others here I simply don't see the Assads outlasting (or ha! coming to terms with) the resistance and holding the entire country, even if the war drags on for another year or more. But even if the Assads fled, they couldn't take 2 million non-Sunni Syrians along with them. I have simply lost faith in the ability of these populations to live together under a single regime at this point, given their respective leaderships. Even though they've lived together since the Prophet's Companions kicked out the Byzantines, the old social contract is broken -- by the stupidity and greed of the Assads, and the Sunni extremists they've empowered through their actions aren't inclined to put it back together. It's basically Yugoslavia redux. Only the US could reimpose an (unstable) single state solution, by basically repeating the Iraq counterinsurgency. And the chances of that happening are _______.

I also suspect that the IED (roadside bomb) war is well underway in the rural areas between the cities and that the Syrian army is rapidly losing its ability to resupply and shift large (and politically reliable) mech forces among hotspots. That same kind of hit and run war nearly paralyzed the vastly more capable US force in Anbar.

Guys, the rebels don't have to destroy the regime's tank divisions in head-to-head combat to win. They just need to keep bleeding them dry one IED or sniper shot at a time. Local regime outposts may already be reaching informal truces with the rebels -- if the Assads can't stop that happening that's the beginning of the end for them.

Nonetheless, the coastal area remains a relatively safe haven for them. And btw, I misnamed the Antitaurus mountains guarding the coast (they're in Turkey). It's the Nusariyah escarpment, an extension of the Anti-Lebanon range. And it is a hell of a lot more defensible from the west than from the east.

[Erwin]

Well, it's a lot more gripping story than most TV soap operas. Interesting to speculate about the final episode that wraps it all up.

[Seedorf81]

It wouldn't surprise me at all when Iran's completion, or near-completion, of nuclear weapons is going to trigger something that defies every scenario-prediction that has been made so far.

Will the USA and Israeli's use ground troops to stop the Iranian weapons production? If yes, wouldn't that blow up the entire region?

What will Russia do?

And how about the Chinese? In a few years time they will be probably be the most powerful nation in the world, and every previous one (Roman, Greek/Macedonian, British, Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese, German, Norman, etc.) tried to expand their territory/influence with open or covert violence. Are the Chinese going to do that more openly in their own region if the USA are fighting a full-out Western-Arab war?

From an historical point of view things in the real world are as exciting as the best AAR's on the Forum! Unfortunately, when the fighting really starts it ain't just nice pixeltruppen who will get hurt..

[agusto]

If there is going to be an all-out World War 3 between Russia/China and the US, i really hope BFC makes a combat mission game about it.

[Seedorf81]

If there is going to be an all-out World War 3 between Russia/China and the US, i really hope BFC makes a combat mission game about it.

Yeah, but probably all the text, and the manual, will be in Chinese by then :eek:!

[black_prince]

In my oppinion we are not likely to see Syria split into two countries. The current behaviour of the regime would indicate that they are playing an all or nothing game. Erwin talked about the regime's determination to deny the rebels any cities. I believe that the regime is concerned that the loss of a major city in its entirety to the rebels would result in increased international recognition for the opposition. Were Aleppo to fall to the rebels for example, it is likely that it would become a seat of governance for the opposition and a kind of rival capital city just as Benghazi did in Libya. This could result in more countries recognising the opposition as the legitimate government, potentially removing any legal barriers to direct military intervention by foreign powers at their behest.

As Assad's regime increasingly loses controll, it may well decamp to the coast, just as Ghadaffi fled to his stronghold of Sirte. However, I think this would only be done as an act of desperation. By the time that occurs, the Syrian Army will likely have been left in tatters. The Syrian Air Force would be forced to leave whatever bases they still retain at that time behind. Huge stock piles of equipment and ammunition would be left in the hands of the rebels (it is unlikely that the SAA would be able to transport or destroy a significant amount of materiel, even if they have already begun doing so, especially when the logistical problems which they are already facing are considered. I doubt that a coastal 'rump' Syria would be able to hold out in the long term. From what I've read, the rebels have already infiltrated beyond the mountain ranges into Latakia and Tartus.

[black_prince]

More footage that you might find interesting:

SAA T-72 hit by several RPGs. Second T-72 attempts to tow it to safety.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c56_1363981215

Another video purporting to show an opposition tank taking out an SAA tank. This time a T-55 (Thanks for the tank ID tips Vanir Ausf .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EmXFEUbv9yI