How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/world/middleeast/israel-oct-7-left-wing-peace.html

If the left has lost mainstream support, Israel’s peace camp has been driven virtually underground. Activist groups say many members have abandoned the cause, and those who remain committed have struggled to find public places willing to accommodate antiwar protests.

 

Israeli public opinion is in a BAD PLACE.

[Anthony P.]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Even in the movie Israel showed to journalists, where they combined all the worst footage from Oct. 7, there is not a single child killed, and none by beheading.

Genocide Olympics. Is the same standard to be applied to Palestinian deaths, i.e. that the IDF should not be held responsible for any death which isn't clearly filmed and posted publicly online?

The Israeli government has publicly stated that the October 7th screenings only include selected footage, excluding especially shocking footage, footage showing children, sexual assault, etc. It's meant as a testimony, not an Internet snuff marathon.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Anthony P. said:

Genocide Olympics. Is the same standard to be applied to Palestinian deaths, i.e. that the IDF should not be held responsible for any death which isn't clearly filmed and posted publicly online?

The Israeli government has publicly stated that the October 7th screenings only include selected footage, excluding especially shocking footage, footage showing children, sexual assault, etc. It's meant as a testimony, not an Internet snuff marathon.

Images and videos of dead Palestinian children are unfortunately plentiful, so I think there would be no reason for Israel to hold anything back that could help the world to see their side of the story.

Especially not when it comes to a reserved screening only for journalists, and not releasing the horrible evidence to the public.

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

Israeli public opinion is in a BAD PLACE.

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/world/middleeast/israel-oct-7-left-wing-peace.html

If the left has lost mainstream support, Israel’s peace camp has been driven virtually underground. Activist groups say many members have abandoned the cause, and those who remain committed have struggled to find public places willing to accommodate antiwar protests.

 

It's really tragic. Several of the victims of Oct. 7 were peace activists and various volunteers. Some of them continue that work, even though they are struggling. I thought this story was worth reading:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-67592468

Yael heads a charity called Road to Recovery, a group of Israeli volunteers who drive sick Palestinians - mostly children - from checkpoints in the occupied West Bank and Gaza to hospital appointments in Israel.

Or did.

The 1,000 or so volunteers can no longer take patients from Gaza, which is governed by Hamas. And four of them are dead - murdered as Palestinian gunmen stormed through their kibbutzim in southern Israel.

[Anthony P.]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Images and videos of dead Palestinian children are unfortunately plentiful, so I think there would be no reason for Israel to hold anything back that could help the world to see their side of the story.

Especially not when it comes to a reserved screening only for journalists, and not releasing the horrible evidence to the public.

There's plentiful media material of innocent Israeli civilians murdered by Palestinians on October 7th as well.

You're holding Israel to a vastly different standard, one which calls into question every single Israeli victim whose demise isn't documented in perverse detail for all and sundry to view online.

If we start holding Palestinian deaths to the same standards, you'd need detailed video documentation for 18,000 deaths to prove that they indeed occurred and weren't Hamas members.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Anthony P. said:

There's plentiful media material of innocent Israeli civilians murdered by Palestinians on October 7th as well.

You're holding Israel to a vastly different standard, one which calls into question every single Israeli victim whose demise isn't documented in perverse detail for all and sundry to view online.

If we start holding Palestinian deaths to the same standards, you'd need detailed video documentation for 18,000 deaths to prove that they indeed occurred and weren't Hamas members.

No I don’t think that was the point of his post.  He wasn’t calling for a direct evidence of every Israeli death.  He was highlighting that there was no evidence of Hamas’ most alleged brutal crimes.  I think his point was that over inflation of that brutality is being some used to give license to IDF potential warcrimes - which frankly are starting to stack up.

In the end I would not be surprised if Hamas did some pretty horrible stuff and the reports of 7 Oct are actually true to a greater or lesser extent.  It also does not matter.  Warcrimes do not justify more warcrimes legally or morally.  A beheaded Israeli baby is just as dead as a Palestinian one how had a JDAMs dropped on them.  And we have seen plenty of dismembered Palestinian children…hell it is with our morning coffee now.

The IDF should be held to higher standard than Hamas.  They are supposed to be the good guys.  Now we have reports of the IDF shooting aid agencies, their own people and vigilante actions against Palestinians in the West Bank.  As soon as we cannot tell who the good guys are anymore we are basically at Sudan where @sshats on both sides are waging war illegally.

This of course is a problem with sustaining international support and at some point even the US is going to draw back.  Like when pictures of starving Palestinians are flashed up on the news, or another massacre.  What is truly disturbing is that our primary democratic partner in the Middle East not only completely dropped the ball leading up to 7 Oct, they are driving the follow on operation into a crater.

We are finally hearing reports that the Israeli justice system is starting to get engaged (you know, the one Netanyahu tried to castrate).  So we may see some action. But right now Israel looks out of control and is making things so much worse.  

[dan/california]

On 12/19/2023 at 5:09 PM, The_Capt said:

No I don’t think that was the point of his post.  He wasn’t calling for a direct evidence of every Israeli death.  He was highlighting that there was no evidence of Hamas’ most alleged brutal crimes.  I think his point was that over inflation of that brutality is being some used to give license to IDF potential warcrimes - which frankly are starting to stack up.

In the end I would not be surprised if Hamas did some pretty horrible stuff and the reports of 7 Oct are actually true to a greater or lesser extent.  It also does not matter.  Warcrimes do not justify more warcrimes legally or morally.  A beheaded Israeli baby is just as dead as a Palestinian one how had a JDAMs dropped on them.  And we have seen plenty of dismembered Palestinian children…hell it is with our morning coffee now.

The IDF should be held to higher standard than Hamas.  They are supposed to be the good guys.  Now we have reports of the IDF shooting aid agencies, their own people and vigilante actions against Palestinians in the West Bank.  As soon as we cannot tell who the good guys are anymore we are basically at Sudan where @sshats on both sides are waging war illegally.

This of course is a problem with sustaining international support and at some point even the US is going to draw back.  Like when pictures of starving Palestinians are flashed up on the news, or another massacre.  What is truly disturbing is that our primary democratic partner in the Middle East not only completely dropped the ball leading up to 7 Oct, they are driving the follow on operation into a crater.

We are finally hearing reports that the Israeli justice system is starting to get engaged (you know, the one Netanyahu tried to castrate).  So we may see some action. But right now Israel looks out of control and is making things so much worse.  

Both U.S. and Israeli politics are going the rest of the way off the rails because of leaders whose primary motivation is staying out of jail. Netanyahu is bitter ending his time in office because he is more or less immune to prosecution as long as he hangs on. It would be a mess anyway, but this is the final straw making things so much worse.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/12/22/world/europe/beeri-massacre.html

A 10-week New York Times investigation into what happened at Be’eri, based on interviews with scores of survivors and witnesses as well as on videos, text messages and recordings of phone calls, revealed a nightmare that lasted from just after dawn until well into the next day.

 

can't figure out what to say...

 

[kohlenklau]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

can't figure out what to say...

 

disregard. I guess it eventually opens.

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by kohlenklau

[kohlenklau]

the dreaded accidental double post...

Edited December 24, 2023 by kohlenklau

[Chudacabra]

On 12/19/2023 at 10:08 AM, Bulletpoint said:

Even in the movie Israel showed to journalists, where they combined all the worst footage from Oct. 7, there is not a single child killed, and none by beheading.

Two infants were killed on October 7th. Obviously unjustifiable to kill children for any reason, but that is the same number of infants who died in the Al-Shifa hospital's neonatal ward alone. So far the IDF has killed approximately 222 Palestinian children for every Israeli child who was killed on October 7th. I am simply at a loss to explain how anyone can possibly think this is justified.

[Erwin]

Well, how did we react after the 9/11 bombings?  How many Iraqi kids died when Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11?  What about the murder of thousands of Iraq's fleeing from Kuwait on the road of death in Iraq War 1?   Unless one has lost family in horrific deliberate murders committed by folks like Hamas, it's not our place to judge the furious response.  Or...  we have to prosecute for war crimes all the folks behind both Iraq Wars.  And we can more easily get ahold of those folks.

 

[kohlenklau]

Hamas Terrorist Explains Complex, Nuanced Goals In Palestinian Conflict

 

 

 

 

[kohlenklau]

This is very distressing! College kids in the USA would donate money to kill Jews.

 

[kohlenklau]

If anybody has an interest, here is a youtube channel which has "Ask an Israeli/Ask a Palestinian" type interviews.

It is very interesting to watch. Listen to the actual people.

https://www.youtube.com/@CoreyGilShusterAskProject

 

[kohlenklau]

The background in this short clip looks like something out of Stalingrad.

https://youtube.com/shorts/PSl5gXloEHY?si=GrNi7NwFk7aHFSnG

 

[Sojourner]

3 hours ago, Chudacabra said:

222 Palestinian children

No, Hamas killed those children. IDF was just the tool they used. They knew full well what would happen.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Erwin said:

Well, how did we react after the 9/11 bombings?  How many Iraqi kids died when Saddam had nothing to do with 9/11?  What about the murder of thousands of Iraq's fleeing from Kuwait on the road of death in Iraq War 1?   Unless one has lost family in horrific deliberate murders committed by folks like Hamas, it's not our place to judge the furious response.  Or...  we have to prosecute for war crimes all the folks behind both Iraq Wars.  And we can more easily get ahold of those folks.

 

Well it kinda is.  A furious illegal response is…illegal.  Now if we just want to throw out the law book because “furious” well then that will have very large repercussions.  For example, we will see no prosecution of Russian war criminals in that war.  Nations could in fact go right back to business as usual with Russia once the war is over because war crimes are no longer a thing.  China can pretty much do whatever because we have shut down the LOAC.

Or do we mean only our enemies have to be accountable for war crimes?  Us and our allies can get a by if we are really angry?  There has been ample evidence that the IDF is out of control, at least on a few occasions.  Investigations will need to be done and if anyone did act illegally they will need to be prosecuted.   Same as soldiers who did do dirty in Iraq.  Revenge, even righteous, does not excuse someone from conducting illegal shoots or indiscriminate killing of civilians.  

So which is it?  Do we have a law of armed conflict or not.  Because if not then legally Russian can start using chemical weapons…and send them to Hamas for that matter.  I mean if you want anarchy just be damned sure you understand what that looks like.  What I am seeing on this thread looks a lot like schoolyard justice, and that is not a basis for international law and order.  Or national law and order for that matter.

[Sojourner]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russian can start using chemical weapons

Already happening...

Russia's Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade confirmed that it is deliberately using chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces in an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2023

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

Already happening...

Russia's Black Sea Fleet's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade confirmed that it is deliberately using chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces in an apparent violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-23-2023

Well there we go…nothing to see here.  I guess we will simply abandon all international law because it seems pretty random in its application.  
 

[Erwin]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

A furious illegal response is…illegal.

The thing is Cap we hopefully all agree with you that it is a terrible thing that the rule of law is no longer working.  However, would you not consider that we have to deal with the world the way it is... not the way we would wish it to be. 

From a military, economic and social POV, it seems essential to destroy Hamas by any means necessary, in the same ruthless way we dealt with the Nazis and the Japanese.  Anything less than that is merely delaying/prolonging an even greater humanitarian disaster.  After that, one can only hope there will be a form of "Marshall Plan" that will put Gaza back on the road to some sort of good life for its people - just like we did for Germany and Japan. 

And again, hopefully we can get the Arab nations to fund that... instead of using the Palestinian-Israeli conflict for their own internal political machinations.  One has to remember that many/all the Arab/Muslim nations are essentially repressive dictatorships focused on suppressing their own powder kegs of internal religious conflict.  

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

seems pretty random in its application

Application seems consistent, it's the compliance to international law that's random. But that's probably what you meant.

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Erwin said:

The thing is Cap we hopefully all agree with you that it is a terrible thing that the rule of law is no longer working.  However, would you not consider that we have to deal with the world the way it is... not the way we would wish it to be. 

The world is what we make it.  That is kinda the point of international laws of armed conflict in the first place.  The major point of disagreement we seem to have is that if one side is not following the rules then it is acceptable for the other side to toss them out the window as well - this is simply not true.  Israel has to live in this world once this war is over.  

Hamas is not and never was an existential threat to then state of Israel anymore than AQ was to the US.  They are capable of horrible behaviours and doing terrible things to Israeli citizens - I do not dispute the atrocities one wit.  But Israel is not on some edge of existence that justifies this behaviour.  In fact the only group who fits that description is Hamas and I am pretty sure we can agree their behaviour is not acceptable either.  Their warcrimes are also crimes.  Any Hamas PoWs need to be investigated and prosecuted for their part as well.  This is going to be pretty damned hard to do righteously if the IDF is also conducting illegal wartime activities.  Or are you basically saying “how things are” is to simply execute them all?

However, Israel is a modern democracy.  A member of the international community.  It does not get to toss out the rule ok anymore than Russia.  Interestingly, no one has responded to this point on Russian warcrimes in Ukraine.  Are we just going to let those slide?  I mean Russia likely can come up with all sorts of “human shields” and “legitimate military targets” as well.  Russia will claim that it “had to deal with the world as it was, not how they wanted it to be” at Bucha.  This is what I mean by application.  We cannot go after Russian warcrimes, or whoever does this stuff next, if we simply shrug when the IDF is straying “terrorists-watcha gonna do?”

 We had restrictive ROEs in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  We had them in the Gulf War.  We had them in Kosovo.  I am not sure where the myth came that we somehow simply ignore the LOAC in conflict but it is simply not true.  I have been part of a killchain and targeting prices and the LOAC is a primary consideration all the time.  We do not “wink and nod” at it because “lawyers”.  Every commander on ops knows the ROEs and is held responsible to enforce them…no matter who we are fighting.

Finally, things are getting so bad that even Israel is beginning to doubt itself:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-death-toll-from-an-israeli-airstrike-in-central-gaza-rises-to-106-palestinian-officials-say-1.6700908

So for context in this case the IDF will need to show that the target they hit was worth 106 civilian dead…in a refugee camp…that they directed civilians to move to.  Was this a rocket system?  Was it the Hamas leader?  There are scenarios where this would be acceptable but that bar is very high.  If this was a dozen Hamas shleps with rifles…this was an unrighteous shoot.  Now we cannot say definitely what this was or was not but we can sure as hell question it.  We do have that right and responsibility.  

 

 

[Chudacabra]

15 hours ago, Sojourner said:

No, Hamas killed those children. IDF was just the tool they used. They knew full well what would happen.

Call me crazy, but I usually blame the party committing flagrant war crimes (like ransacking hospitals on the basis of transparent lies, murdering women sheltering in a church, shooting a man with a developmental disability for the crime of carrying lollipops, killing their own hostages who they thought were civilians, assassinating journalists on a mass scale, permanently settling civilians in occupied territory, and so on and so on...). I find it very strange that supporting Israel seems to translate to supporting a very particular course of action designed for maximum cruelty and collective punishment. Israel's political and military establishment has been incapable of articulating a clear or achievable goal, and also has no long-term plans for a peaceful future. 

https://www.972mag.com/israel-political-weakness-military-hamas/

I thought this was a great piece highlighting that despite Israel's military might, it is politically weak and immensely unimaginative. Netanyahu's successive governments have proved incapable of articulating anything beyond a worsening of the status quo, not to mention their strategy of supporting Hamas as a means to divide and discredit the Palestinians backfired spectacularly. October 7th was a classic case of blowback, where actions taken to weaken your enemy end up coming back to bite you in horrible ways.

[Chudacabra]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The world is what we make it.  That is kinda the point of international laws of armed conflict in the first place.  The major point of disagreement we seem to have is that if one side is not following the rules then it is acceptable for the other side to toss them out the window as well - this is simply not true.  Israel has to live in this world once this war is over.  

Hamas is not and never was an existential threat to then state of Israel anymore than AQ was to the US.  They are capable of horrible behaviours and doing terrible things to Israeli citizens - I do not dispute the atrocities one wit.  But Israel is not on some edge of existence that justifies this behaviour.  In fact the only group who fits that description is Hamas and I am pretty sure we can agree their behaviour is not acceptable either.  Their warcrimes are also crimes.  Any Hamas PoWs need to be investigated and prosecuted for their part as well.  This is going to be pretty damned hard to do righteously if the IDF is also conducting illegal wartime activities.  Or are you basically saying “how things are” is to simply execute them all?

However, Israel is a modern democracy.  A member of the international community.  It does not get to toss out the rule ok anymore than Russia.  Interestingly, no one has responded to this point on Russian warcrimes in Ukraine.  Are we just going to let those slide?  I mean Russia likely can come up with all sorts of “human shields” and “legitimate military targets” as well.  Russia will claim that it “had to deal with the world as it was, not how they wanted it to be” at Bucha.  This is what I mean by application.  We cannot go after Russian warcrimes, or whoever does this stuff next, if we simply shrug when the IDF is straying “terrorists-watcha gonna do?”

 We had restrictive ROEs in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  We had them in the Gulf War.  We had them in Kosovo.  I am not sure where the myth came that we somehow simply ignore the LOAC in conflict but it is simply not true.  I have been part of a killchain and targeting prices and the LOAC is a primary consideration all the time.  We do not “wink and nod” at it because “lawyers”.  Every commander on ops knows the ROEs and is held responsible to enforce them…no matter who we are fighting.

Finally, things are getting so bad that even Israel is beginning to doubt itself:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/the-death-toll-from-an-israeli-airstrike-in-central-gaza-rises-to-106-palestinian-officials-say-1.6700908

So for context in this case the IDF will need to show that the target they hit was worth 106 civilian dead…in a refugee camp…that they directed civilians to move to.  Was this a rocket system?  Was it the Hamas leader?  There are scenarios where this would be acceptable but that bar is very high.  If this was a dozen Hamas shleps with rifles…this was an unrighteous shoot.  Now we cannot say definitely what this was or was not but we can sure as hell question it.  We do have that right and responsibility.  

 

 

Israel is not a democracy. It is an ethnostate with some democratic institutions within its 1967 borders, but it lacks equality of citizenship, which is a basic tenet of democracy. Judicial oversight of the legislature was also greatly weakened recently, although I suspect that will be reversed once Netanyahu is ejected from office. Palestinians citizens of Israel do enjoy far more political rights than Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.

But Israel has adopted a one state solution for the lands of historic Palestine. Israel exercises full sovereignty from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea in three very distinct ways. There is 1967 Israel, which is perhaps best described as an illiberal democracy. There is the West Bank where Palestinian control has been reduced to about 18% of the territory and is heavily bisected by Israeli settlements and areas under full Israeli military control. This is similar to the bantustans of apartheid South Africa. What kind of democracy has roads only for certain ethnicities or subjects some citizens to military justice and others to civil justice? 

Then there is Gaza, which is besieged by Israel aided by Egypt. While it was not actively occupied or colonized , it is effectively part of Israel as Israel has full control over its external affairs and borders. It has now been subject to one of the most intense bombardment campaigns in history, which is framed as a war, but is really a counter-insurgency against a domestic force.

Ultimately, Israel will need to reckon with its foundation as a colonial project that emerged in the 1890s largely as a response to European anti-Semitism and that was established at the expense of Palestinian Arabs of Muslim and Christian backgrounds with somewhat mixed support from Palestinian Jews. It is imperfect as an example, but the reconciliation process in Canada is at least an acknowledgement of past harms towards indigenous people and could serve as a model. What if instead of spending billions upon billions to destroy Gaza, that money and resources were distributed as compensation in lieu of a right to return for Palestinian refugees displaced in 1948? An imperfect option, but an imperfect compromise to address past harms is a far better solution than a worsening status quo.

I feel like people often get distracted with inane discussions of whether Israel has a right to exist. Israel will continue to exist unless it collapses under the weight of its own contradictions. It is a nuclear power with a lavishly equipped conventional military that has an absolutely overwhelming amount of power in the region. As it has shown in Gaza, it can do more or less whatever it wants. The real question is what will happen to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza? Any political solution would be better than the status quo, be it one secular state for all its citizens, two federated states (something like the A Land For All proposal - https://www.alandforall.org/english/?d=ltr) or two separate, fully sovereign states. If there is one lesson to be learned from October 7th, it is that the safety of Jewish Israelis cannot be predicated on the continued oppression and dispossession of Palestinians. There are lots of examples of multi-religious or multi-ethnic states or of neighbouring states of different religions or ethnicities living beside each other, often for the better. There is no inherent reason why this place should be any different.