How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kraze]

4 hours ago, Butschi said:

Please don't always state so indifferentiated stuff about everything Russian. I guess they won't suffer too much from hurt feelings but for me it just doesn't add anything useful to the discussion. Of course it is possible to have agreements with Russians in general. It is not like they were somehow genetically unable to. There were quite a lot in the past that weren't broken. I wouldn't trust the Putin, his cronies and quite a few others farther than I can lob a 155mm shell at them but that doesn't mean we can never try to reach an agreement with any Russian ever again - which would be a very bleak outlook indeed.

EDIT: Modified one sentence. Didn't make much sense. My bad.

Do you find it strange that you can't repeat this same argument to Jews about their immediate neighbors?

millions and millions of Ukrainians dead over the past 100 years (and quite a lot before that too, just nobody counted) would've been happy if you were right, I'm sure.

But reality is much bleaker than you think.

Living in safety with no genocidal neighbors, where mass murder, rape and torture is an inherent part of their culture, promoted and honored by their very poets - is a very different thing.

Edited June 30, 2022 by kraze

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Snake Island was never defendable by either side.  It's loss was inevitable.

Let's hope Ukrainians will not go carried away too much by this victory and will not try to land there.

Btw. I wondered why nobody thought before the war to dig some tunnels there nor placed any serious fortifications. Perhaps bedrock is too hard?

The bedrock of the island consists of Silurian and Devonian sedimentary rocks, primarily metamorphosed, highly cemented quartzite conglomerate-breccias, with subordinate conglomerate, sandstone and clay, which form cliffs surrounding the island up to 25 metres high. The structural geology of the island is defined by a wavy monocline orientated to the northeast, with a small anticline in the eastern part of the island. The island is crisscrossed by faults with both N-S and NE-SW orientations.

 

[Haiduk]

UKR troops of Reserve Corps 60th infantry brigade in liberated Potiomkyne village, Kherson oblast. On the video destroyed Russian BRM-1K, captured tank (T-72B3 mod.2016?) BMP-2 and BMD-2 (has tactical signs of 11th guard air-assault brigade) 

Liberation of Potiokyne, recently liberated Mykhailivka and actions in directions Ivanivka and Olhyne villages makes the threat for outflanking the grouping of Russian troops in Vysokopillia area - the spear, which recently was targeted on Kryvyi Rih or Nikopol, but now capable only for holding seized territories.

Soldier says, they liberated this village with artillery support and atacked Russians fron the flanks.  

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Oscar for this action and special effects! 

PS. Video is not real, but... ))))

Yeah, some get hooked- check this thread from Tires guy... :

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1542604260420067328

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I was thinking now is the time to get out and cash in on that tsunami of contractor money they are going to need to spend...they can keep the medals, I want the cash...sweet cash....

Way ahead of you on that. I got out of the Army at the end of 2020, and recently started working as a Navy contractor. I feel like I'm going to have pretty good job security this decade (if things heat up in the ways I'm expecting them to).

[poesel]

8 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

German government actions are just buzzling to me. Is the government irrationally pacifist (pacifist would field the maximalist soft power, clearly not the case here). Too invested to admit 20 years of foreign policy was wrong? Still hoping for the problem just to go away? Or is the economic impact of Russia really worse than anybody wants to admit?

Two of the three parties (social democrats (SPD) & greens) are historical roots in pacifism. The SPD was for example the only party to vote against Hitler as that was still possible. The greens were even founded out of the pacifist movement. The greens have surprisingly adapted to the new situation very fast and with negligible internal rumbling.
The SPD has however a harder time. Make that 50 instead of your mentioned 20 years of investment in ‘Ostpolitik’. I said it before: from the outside it looks like glacial speed but from the inside its lightning. Parts of that party are still literally shell shocked.
The economic impact is bad but meanwhile an accepted fact (see my last post)

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Well that's a sine qua non, but on top of that you have to make a political decision to take the risk. If Russians attack and hit/sink a ship flying a NATO country flag, we'll have a problem much bigger than insurance. I honestly don't think they will, but for sure the first run (of the convoy perhaps?) will be one of the most tense moments of the whole war so far.

If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.

More difficult are the more ‘grey’ problems like Russia wanting to stop the freighter for an ‘inspection’. Does it stop or is that piracy? What happens when during that action one ship rams the other? Will the freighter be escorted by, say, a Turkish warship?

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yeah, check this thread from Tires guy... :

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1542604260420067328

 

As turned out, many people havn't sense of humor )))

[Harmon Rabb]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Let's hope Ukrainians will not go carried away too much by this victory and will not try to land there.

Btw. I wondered why nobody thought before the war to dig some tunnels there nor placed any serious fortifications. Perhaps bedrock is too hard?

The bedrock of the island consists of Silurian and Devonian sedimentary rocks, primarily metamorphosed, highly cemented quartzite conglomerate-breccias, with subordinate conglomerate, sandstone and clay, which form cliffs surrounding the island up to 25 metres high. The structural geology of the island is defined by a wavy monocline orientated to the northeast, with a small anticline in the eastern part of the island. The island is crisscrossed by faults with both N-S and NE-SW orientations.

 

Congrats to Ukraine for driving Russia out of Snake Island! But yeah, Ukraine attempting to land forces on it would be a huge mistake and I doubt they will try to do that right now.

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As turned out, many people havn't sense of humor )))

He wasn't the only one, the guy is from generation that simply doesn't understand the power of modern technology. Some other "celebrity-analysts" were hooked on "night operations" and helicopters falling from the skyes done on Arma 3 engine...

Imagine having Combat Mission game on some new engine so realistic that is able to hook in a Pentagon official. Or even better- a Russian ambasador or prominent tankie.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

UKR prototype of Bohdana 155 mm SP-howitzer fires on Zmiinyi island not far from Vylkove village, Odesa oblast. The range is about 36 km. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, poesel said:

If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.

More difficult are the more ‘grey’ problems like Russia wanting to stop the freighter for an ‘inspection’. Does it stop or is that piracy? What happens when during that action one ship rams the other? Will the freighter be escorted by, say, a Turkish warship?

Thanks to anti-ship missiles, and recapturing Snake Island, RU is no longer capable of stopping any traffic that hugs the coast, nor can fly a helicopter there. Submarines can hardly fire warning shots, ditto fighter aircraft or RU shore batteries. I actually was pointing that out right after Moskva was hit - after Snake Island is captured, and mines are dealt with, Russia no longer has any options other than outright sinking everything that runs the blockade.

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Congrats to Ukraine for driving Russia out of Snake Island! But yeah, Ukraine attempting to land forces on it would be a huge mistake and I doubt they will try to do that right now.

100 percent agree, it is nothing but the bullseye on a firing range.

Edited June 30, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Huba]

40 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Let's hope Ukrainians will not go carried away too much by this victory and will not try to land there.

Btw. I wondered why nobody thought before the war to dig some tunnels there nor placed any serious fortifications. Perhaps bedrock is too hard?

The bedrock of the island consists of Silurian and Devonian sedimentary rocks, primarily metamorphosed, highly cemented quartzite conglomerate-breccias, with subordinate conglomerate, sandstone and clay, which form cliffs surrounding the island up to 25 metres high. The structural geology of the island is defined by a wavy monocline orientated to the northeast, with a small anticline in the eastern part of the island. The island is crisscrossed by faults with both N-S and NE-SW orientations.

 

Oh come on, they have to land there and pull up their flag! Honestly, this is a low hanging fruit for the propaganda.

I'd say maybe even keep a few men there (literally like a squad), so that RU don't use it as covert observation point. If the status of the island is not 100% confirmed, IMO it is an additional risk that any blockade runners would have to face. Of course anything observable by RU, like radars, missile batteries etc is out of the question. Just a few guys keeping an eye on the place, but not letting RU see them.

Edit: as a bonus, if Russians insist of bombing it, it might be a nice trap for any aircraft that tries that. They can of course fire cruise missiles at it, but they would need A LOT, or a lot of luck to actually hit anyone who might be hiding there.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Huba

[Centurian52]

15 minutes ago, poesel said:

If Russia would attack a NATO state freighter it wouldn’t necessarily mean instant WW3. NATO could for instance declare a no-fly zone over Ukraine & the Black Sea.

It really couldn't. There is no way to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine without going all-in on a conventional war between Russia and NATO. It would not only mean NATO aircraft shooting down Russian aircraft, but also NATO aircraft attacking Russian air-defense systems and radar.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Oh come on, they have to land there and pull up their flag! Honestly, this is a low hanging fruit for the propaganda.

If I were at the top of Ukrainian military food chain, I'd sign off on that as long as the guys got the Hell out of there right after.  That sort of propaganda thing is worth risking a boat and a couple of guys to get some nice pictures, but after that I'd want them home.

Steve

[Huba]

Tik-tok warriors spokesperson says that RU is not storming Lysychansk, but waiting for UA to retreat. Of course there's no reason to believe anything they say, but if we make an exception what does it tell us? IMO it points to total exhaustion of RU troops, at this point pushing straight at fortified positions in the city must be hardly something they'd like to do:

 

[Centurian52]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Tik-tok warriors spokesperson says that RU is not storming Lysychansk, but waiting for UA to retreat. Of course there's no reason to believe anything they say, but if we make an exception what does it tell us? IMO it points to total exhaustion of RU troops, at this point pushing straight at fortified positions in the city must be hardly something they'd like to do:

 

I read this as a sign of Russian weakness. I can't see any reason to allow your enemy to retreat other than that you lack the strength to trap or destroy them.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

It really couldn't. There is no way to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine without going all-in on a conventional war between Russia and NATO. It would not only mean NATO aircraft shooting down Russian aircraft, but also NATO aircraft attacking Russian air-defense systems and radar.

I am against doing something that would provoke a shooting war between NATO and Russia, but I am not against challenging Russia if it's direct actions constitute an attack on a NATO element (including civilians operating well within International law).  I'd let Russia know that it had crossed a line and that from this moment on anything interfering with legal activities in the Black Sea would be met with a military response.  I wouldn't necessarily say "no fly zone", but I'd have a lot more aircraft in the air over international waters and allied airspace as far east as possible.  The message being, within seconds something big of Russia's could go boom and there isn't a damned thing it can do about it.

My thinking is that Putin would back down and that would be that.

Steve

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Let's hope Ukrainians will not go carried away too much by this victory and will not try to land there.

Curious why Putin just didn't put any more forces there for the time being.  Why make that stupid announcement.  I think we'd refer to that as an "own goal".

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Well that's a sine qua non, but on top of that you have to make a political decision to take the risk. If Russians attack and hit/sink a ship flying a NATO country flag, we'll have a problem much bigger than insurance. I honestly don't think they will, but for sure the first run (of the convoy perhaps?) will be one of the most tense moments of the whole war so far.

Insurance is not really the problem: during the Iran-Iraq War tankers continued to sail through the Persian Gulf even though both sides attacked shipping. But the Russians have submarines, and they could easily torpedo merchant shipping and then claim it was destroyed by Ukrainian mines or what have you and make things politically difficult.

[Huba]

A bucket of cold water degarding Biden's statement. Apparently he didn't mean new transfers, but included what already was pledged. Quite frustrating to be honest

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Huba

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

Do you find it strange that you can't repeat this same argument to Jews about their immediate neighbors?

millions and millions of Ukrainians dead over the past 100 years (and quite a lot before that too, just nobody counted) would've been happy if you were right, I'm sure.

But reality is much bleaker than you think.

Living in safety with no genocidal neighbors, where mass murder, rape and torture is an inherent part of their culture, promoted and honored by their very poets - is a very different thing.

I fail to see what the Jews and their neighbors have to do with it. I don't deny that Ukrainian have suffered a lot at the hands of Russians. I even said explicitly that I don't trust the current Russian government at all.

But I do not accept categorical statements like that it is impossible to come to an agreement with Russians because they never honour them. We know this isn't true because there were agreements with Russians that were honored in the past. That is the whole point I want to make.

Edited June 30, 2022 by Butschi

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

It really couldn't. There is no way to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine without going all-in on a conventional war between Russia and NATO. It would not only mean NATO aircraft shooting down Russian aircraft, but also NATO aircraft attacking Russian air-defense systems and radar.

Not over Ukraine, over the Black Sea (where the freighters are)

[danfrodo]

Ships in the black sea to pick up grain: I think it's not about some complicated no-fly zone, like has been mentioned above.  NATO says, in a diplomatic way,  "these ships, these times, will have protection, stay away.  This ships are here for grain to avert food crises around the world, do not interfere."

NATO could provide a CAP within NATO or NATO-friendly boundaries that would only scramble over the ships if Russian ships or planes approach.  If Russia fired on the ships NATO would attack wherever the missiles came from, via planes or cruise missiles.

[FancyCat]

Thread that lays out Russia's failure to keep Snake Island. The fact that Russia cannot stop artillery that in photos looks like its on the beach, from shelling Snake Island is arguably a significant failure. Also, holy ****, I did not realize the UAF has less than 100 aircraft, wtf, why isn't the Russian Air Force just flooding the entire airspace with planes....decent point to be made, if Russia can't strike artillery firing from the beaches, it sure as hell can't target inland with any reasonable accuracy. 

Quote

That the Russian military & its much-touted Black Sea Fleet couldn't secure an island 170 miles from its homeport from a war-torn adversary with fixed-wing combat aircraft numbering in the dozens & no real operable Navy is an absolute stunning failure of massive proportions. 

And yes, it is easier said than done. Interdiction of artillery in the coastal area of Ukraine would have been necessary, and as noted months ago, Russia is very poorly equipped to do this at considerable distances. But also, another constant reminder of how... 

how poor Russian air defenses performed here. While their point defenses clearly were beefed up, there was no real area air defense over that region it seemed. Moskva's sinking likely made this worse, but how operable its systems were is still up for debate. 

Russia's inability to extend its airpower beyond short ranges against dynamic (moving) land targets has just neutered them in so many ways. 

 

With no ability to execute & sustain an integrated air campaign to sanitize the area within artillery range of the island, which would have included targeting/intel gathering, battlefield interdiction (strike), and SEAD/DEAD/EW operations, lowly artillery largely made holding... 

the island just too costly and arguably worthless, of course with some help from Ukrainian airpower.

Otherwise, Russia would have had to hold/occupy that area of the Ukrainian coast. HIMARS made the circle markedly larger.

Ukrainian artillery must have been firing right on the coast to reach the island, which Russia was incapable of doing anything about. Which is quite telling. HIMARS would make things much harder if it hasn't already. 

We never even saw attempts at forward deploying helicopters to the island to work the coastline for artillery targets. Clearly, such an operation was too complex, Snake Island wasn't secure enough to try, and/or Ukraine's air defenses made it too risky. 

As for the blockade, I highly doubt Snake Island had any useful contribution to that operation in recent weeks.

Regardless, this is a big win for Ukraine, symbolic especially. Just as we predicted, with HIMARS now fielded & without being able to interdict the artillery using... 

airpower or even occupying the areas within range, Russia knew full well that holding the island would be pointless and would become an embarrassment either way. Hence today's news. Everything useful on the island was likely demo'd upon exit.