How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

They have what they brought? You can depend on it that Putin is scraping the barrel this very moment and will not hesitate to mobilize all he can to send into the Ukraine. This war has only just begun. 

You are categorically wrong there.  That is exactly what has happened.  Russia has not ordered a full mobilization and already has an issue with conscripts refusing to serve in Ukraine.  There are very sharp political reasons for that.  Will Putin go that far?  Possibly.  The risks are extreme and likely require he actually declare it a war by Russian statute.  Assuming he does that, will it make a difference?  Mobilizing even more untrained cannon fodder with military hardware that may not even work?  The DPR/LNR guys and the Ossetians have already complained about being used as cannon fodder.   Again we are talking about a 300 mile front line.  I am not sure how many square kilometers that translates to.  The numbers just don't work.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

I've seen this 30% thrown around earlier in the thread too. I just don't see the significance or applicability of it.

It is a rule of thumb, that's all.  Sometimes 1% casualties is enough to have a unit become combat ineffective, other times it's 90%.  It is also very different if a battalion loses a whole company (30%) vs. each combat unit losing 30%.  Granted.  However, 30% is a generally accepted starting point for discussion.

The most important thing about the % is what sort of force you are comparing against.  Typically this number applies to a large formation with typical amount of logistics personnel.  30% probably means 40-50% of the combat forces, 5-10% of support which together averages 30%.  An airborne unit like 101st or 82nd in WW2 were pretty much purely combat, therefore 50% for those divisions was probably more akin to 25% for an infantry or armored unit of similar size.  And yes, some units are more adept and willing to fight with higher casualties. Airborne forces are not only supposed to be "tougher", but they are also doctrinally designed to reorganize on the fly.

The truth is we do not know what the breaking point is for the average Russian unit.  What we do know is that the BTGs are combat heavy and logistics light forces.  Meaning, if a 500 man BTG takes 30% casualties it has probably lost most of its support strength.  No food, no ammo, no fuel = no fight.

IMHO 30% is as good as any number to use as a rule of thumb.

Steve

[DesertFox]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

War in Ukraine: Street in Bucha found strewn with dead bodies

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60967463

 

I could very well understand any ukr unit commander who saw this or comparable attrocities from this point on to order his troops to NOT take any prisoners any more. Mind you, I don´t condone it, I am just saying I could understand it.

Quote

 

Graphic links, Mostly Bucha!

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510370057855156229?s=20&t=SD72ZjpFYfqsmHyCyWzu4Q

https://twitter.com/bobbystone24/status/1510359971749322757?s=20&t=SD72ZjpFYfqsmHyCyWzu4Q

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1510374111436054538?s=20&t=SD72ZjpFYfqsmHyCyWzu4Q

 

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by DesertFox

[danfrodo]

x

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[sross112]

4 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Er, thanks, this could constitute something I can agree on with Kraze.

I know that’s how this looks in the west but you must be missing a) the complex history and demographics that make up ethnicity b) the posts here about x people are all y.

Calling all Eastern Europeans Slavs is not accurate.

For Pete's sake, it is not RACISM!! Not everything is RACISM!! It's simple BIGOTRY for crying out loud!!

If you want to be all woke and politically correct about this horse****, at least use the right friggin words.

And personally, I don't agree with either of your positions. The people of Russia, I think the gray masses in Russia should suffer under sanctions for allowing a criminal regime to exist. They should be despised and ostracized from civilization until they change, but they should not be condemned to torture and death. The RA should be brutally killed to the last man for their heinous inhumane barbarous conduct to the Ukrainian civilians. They are friggin savages and should be treated like such. There is no difference between them and ISIS at this point. Their torture, rape and murder can't be condoned and every member of every unit is responsible for the conduct of that unit and especially it's officers and NCO's, but that does not alleviate private Ivan for following orders, doing it on his own or standing aside and allowing it to happen. You play, you pay.

But I'm an idealist and believe in right and wrong, good and evil. A hate filled heart is not a bad thing when it is aimed at evil. If this was happening on my soil, to my people, to my family, Kraze would have to push me out of the way to take his turn on the kill, maim, mutilate merry go round on those bastards.

Man, if I get any  more fired up I might tell you how I really feel.  

[Taranis]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting that there's a bunch of BMP-3s in those pictures.  This indicates that Russia has moved at least one of its highest quality units into the fight for Donbas.

Steve

It could be the 20 GMRD (only supposition). We see on the picture of BMP-3 an old erased / and overpainted with a Z. Wasn't the "/" a sigle from southern units ? 20 GMRD was few days ago in the Kherson area (8GCAA or 22 CAA, depending sources). It also had BMP-3, BTR-80 and BTR-82A. So maybe a redeployment or a detachment from the south ?

[sross112]

On today's ISW update it looks like Russia is setting the stage for chemical weapons false flag ops in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk.

The Kremlin set additional conditions on March 30-April 1 for a chemical or biochemical false-flag attack in eastern Ukraine or Russia.

• Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Igor Konashenkov claimed on March 30 that Ukrainian forces “considered the possibility of using biological weapons against the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR)” with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).[10]
• Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Forces Head Igor Kirillov claimed on March 31 that Ukraine asked Bayraktar (the Turkish manufacturer of many of Ukraine’s UAVs) to equip Ukraine’s drones with an aerosol spraying mechanism for biological weapons in December 2021.[11]
• Russian State Duma officials convened a committee on March 31 to “investigate” Russia’s repeated and false allegations that US biolabs are participating in “the development of biological weapons components in the immediate vicinity of the territory of Russia.”[12]
• Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky told Russian state media on April 1 that Ukrainian forces “plan to blow up railway containers containing up to 800 tons of chlorine” in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region and claimed that Russia is providing additional evidence of alleged Ukrainian biological weapons programs to the United Nations.[13]

ISW warned on March 9 that the Kremlin may conduct a chemical or radiological false-flag attack and blame Ukraine, the United States, or NATO.[14] Russian media would leverage a potential false flag attack to stoke domestic outrage and establish a pretext for further escalation in Ukraine or against NATO.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

Denazification wasn't about "opening eyes". Germans knew full well what their army was doing. They knew it all. Denazification was about punishing those that didn't want to change. Germany has punishment for even drawing swastika to this very day.

You have one part of it.  Punishment was part of the process, but the other part was in fact "opening eyes".  Most Germans did not understand, nor wanted to understand, the scale of crimes their people were responsible for.   Even the ones who lived near the concentration camps didn't fully appreciate what went on there.  Sure, they should have known.  Sure, they should have cared.  But that Nazi government tried *VERY* hard to hide this stuff from their own people because, frankly, they knew they wouldn't accept it.  They also conveniently thought treated the truth that did slip through were lies invented by Communists, Jews, and other enemies of the Nazi state.  Much easier to believe a lie that says you are good than face the truth that you are evil.

Therefore, a big part of post-WW2 denazification was making sure that the truth was put in front of every German's face day after day after day.  The trials, the obligatory watching of documentaries, marching local citizens through the camps, etc.  The aim wasn't just to "open eyes" of the people that were old enough to know better, but also the generations who had not even been born yet.  The Allies made sure this was a major component of the new German government before it was allowed to exist.

Now, compare this with the Allies and Japan.  They did not do the equivalent and to this day the Japanese still largely reject the truth of what they did to the Koreans, Chinese, and so on.  Vehemently.  Now, while the Japanese are not likely to repeat the genocide and enslavement policies of Tojo's government, which is good, they still have not come to terms with their crimes.  It is overlooked mostly because they are genuinely peaceful and that's the more important thing.

Russia never went through either of these processes after WW2.  Nobody held anybody accountable for Stalin's mass murdering and genocide.  Nobody held them accountable for the deportations, disappearances, imprisonment, and general misery they caused their own people and a good chunk of the world for two generations.  After the wall fell the repressed peoples in Europe did (mostly) deal with their peoples' crimes, but Russia went the other way.  Not only did it not admit to its horrendous crimes, but under Putin made it a punishable offense (in some cases) to even mention them.  Even worse, the Soviet Union has been increasingly glorified by Putin and even Stalin "rehabilitated".  To this day Russians do not understand why they are so hated and feared by those around them.  The closest thing Russia has to a genuine ally in Eastern Europe is Serbia, which says something.

For Russia to move on from its past of being the worst sort of overseer of its people and the most abysmal type of neighbor imaginable, they have to come to grips with how criminal their government is and has been for all of modern history.  The only realistic way for this to happen is for Putin's regime to collapse and the new government try to do better.  This can be helped by the West imposing conditions on Russia before allowing it to be accepted back into the global economy and society.  Starting with freedom of the press and fact based education.

I don't have high hopes for this happening in my lifetime, but I do hope that Russia can at least head in the right direction sooner rather than later.  The Germans and Japanese proved they could change their ways, I hope Russians can too.

Steve

[DesertFox]

 

 

[DesertFox]

About time...

 

 

[chris talpas]

Some historical comparison.  After Pearl Harbour, Admiral William Halsey said 'Before We're Through With 'em, the Japanese Language Will be Spoken Only in Hell"  A sentiment shared I'm sure by many Americans at the time.

Passions can run high during war time.

 

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, sross112 said:

But I'm an idealist and believe in right and wrong, good and evil. A hate filled heart is not a bad thing when it is aimed at evil. If this was happening on my soil, to my people, to my family, Kraze would have to push me out of the way to take his turn on the kill, maim, mutilate merry go round on those bastards.

I don't think you and Maquisard manqué are not too far from each other, and I don't think Maquisard manqué  is too far from Kraze and Haiduk's viewpoint either.  None of you think Russian forces in Ukraine are anything other than war criminals that need to be brought to justice.  None of you think that the Russian people are blameless for the crimes of their armed forces.  None of you think Russia as a nation state should be allowed to get away with their crimes.  All of you think Russia needs to be collectively punished.

The difference is that one viewpoint is that Russians are forever doomed to be murderous animals.  No hope of getting them to be any better.  I'm not talking about right now, I'm talking about forever.  That there is something wrong in their societal DNA that means there is no chance of change.  The other side says that's not the case.  With the right circumstances the Russians, like Nazi Germans or Tojo Japanese, can change.  Those circumstances might be very difficult to achieve, but they are possible.

From my reading of the arguments, it comes down to that small of a difference.  And there's really not much point in debating it here because RIGHT NOW it is irrelevant because the Russians in Ukraine, now, are there to murder and plunder with the active and willing support of the people at home.

Steve

[akd]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This indicates that Russia has moved at least one of its highest quality units into the fight for Donbas.

I don’t think there is any correlation.  “Elite” 4th Guards Tank Division has BMP-2s.  Southern Military District has somewhat more BMP-3s, IIRC, but I haven’t seen any evidence they are allocated based on unit quality (i.e. units that are considered “elite” versus units that just have a high standard of readiness and can form complete BTGs on short notice).

Edited April 2, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chris talpas said:

Some historical comparison.  After Pearl Harbour, Admiral William Halsey said 'Before We're Through With 'em, the Japanese Language Will be Spoken Only in Hell"  A sentiment shared I'm sure by many Americans at the time.

Passions can run high during war time.

 

And let's not forget the Marshall Plan had competition... the Morgenthau Plan.  I think we can all agree that the Marshall Plan was the better of the two.

As an aside, I think of this fairly regularly as our local Post Office has his name on the corner stone (built under his tenure at the Treasury Department).

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, akd said:

I don’t think there is any correlation.  “Elite” 4th Guards Tank Division has BMP-2s.  Southern Military District has somewhat more BMP-3s, IIRC, but I haven’t seen any evidence they are allocated based on unit quality (i.e. units that are considered “elite” versus units that justhave a high standard of readiness and can form complete BTGs on short notice).

Interesting.  There's a misconception I've had for years now.  I thought the two concepts were one in the same.  Units with high readiness had higher proportions of contract soldiers and better equipment.  That's the way most nations handle their equipment allocations.  Huh.

Steve

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Some historical comparison.  After Pearl Harbour, Admiral William Halsey said 'Before We're Through With 'em, the Japanese Language Will be Spoken Only in Hell"  A sentiment shared I'm sure by many Americans at the time.

Passions can run high during war time.

 

There is a line in a WW2 country music song "When all our new ships and bombers make a graveyard of Japan"

[BlackMoria]

Well, having an international arrest warrant for war crimes will put a damper on Putin's travel plans.  Having an interpol arrest squad waiting to arrest him when he arrive for the G20 summit or Olympics or where ever is probably his future.  

Would love to see his private plane forced down over some country and some very serious heavy armed unsympathetic international law enforcement waiting to take him into custody would make my day.

[Battlefront.com]

I meant to post this and think I forgot, so forgive me if I did   Reporting on the successful prisoner exchange yesterday.  No word on how many Russians exchanged.

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No word on how many Russians exchanged

86 on 86. Among our released POWs 15 women

[DesertFox]

In case some of you wondered why some of those arty strikes are that precise...:

 

 

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russian Mi-28N shot down two days ago it's first victory of StarStreek

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, Taranis said:

It could be the 20 GMRD (only supposition). We see on the picture of BMP-3 an old erased / and overpainted with a Z. Wasn't the "/" a sigle from southern units ? 20 GMRD was few days ago in the Kherson area (8GCAA or 22 CAA, depending sources). It also had BMP-3, BTR-80 and BTR-82A. So maybe a redeployment or a detachment from the south ?

Yes, the single slash was seen very early on units out of Crimea.  It seems to have been fairly quickly abandoned and turned into Z.  Some vehicles had both, but probably started off with just the / symbol to start.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

86 on 86. Among our released POWs 15 women

Great!  Thank you.

I think a 1:1 exchange is a good sign of Russia recognizes its relative negotiating power.  From what I remember in the past they have insisted on disproportionate exchanges.

Steve

[The Steppenwulf]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, but you forget that in Russia there's nobody to challenge an official position.  Therefore, Putin can spin this any way he wants.  And so he did!  The way it was spun in Russian media is that the attack on Kiev was only to distract Ukrainian forces away from the real objective, which is to liberate the Luhansk and Donetsk territory from the Ukrainian Nazis.  Now that mission has been successfully completed, therefore Russia has no reason to keep its forces around Kiev.  Plus the withdrawal is a sign of good faith for the negotiations which are seeking to get a cease fire.

Of course this is true but you took this out of context of the post.

The point I was making is that the whole world knew that RU was going to pull out of Kiev region 48- 24 hours before they did. That's not sound military practice because it invites the enemy to plan pursuit ops. The fact that UA did not exploit this advance knowledge may indicate that a RA withdrawal absent of UA military action was agreed as part of talks. Is it merely a coincidence that the Russian announcement about the withdrawal without UA response has all occurred after talks in Istanbul? I think not!    

And Zelensky would agree to this, since it means Ukraine could swiftly but peacefully re-patriot the region (than they might otherwise), relieve the local population given the huge numbers of casualties, besides the fact that they are no UA maneuvre units in that area that are equipped to take advantage of such a pursuit and/or encirclement opportunity. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

In case some of you wondered why some of those arty strikes are that precise...:

 

 

No-no-no. Alas. Production of Kvitnyk was stopped in 2014. About half of components had Russian origins. Only in 2021 there was some information, that project was upgraded and "foreign" spare parts were found for substitution of Russian components. But there is no any information about Kvitnyk production was restroed. 

Several times this ammunition was used on initial phase of war on Donbas in 2014, but for now we havn't guided artillery ammunition 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk