How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[OldSarge]

We're back on Jan 6 denialism again? Sigh!
 

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On January 6, 2021, the world witnessed a violent and unprecedented attack on the U.S. Capitol, the Vice President, Members of Congress, and the democratic process. Rioters, attempting to disrupt the Joint Session of Congress, broke into the Capitol building, vandalized and stole property, and ransacked offices. They attacked members of law enforcement and threatened the safety and lives of our nation’s elected leaders. Tragically, seven individuals, including three law enforcement officers, ultimately lost their lives.

If you feel the MSM is biased in this regard, there are some credible sites to check out.

US Senate Report on January 6

Select January 6th Committee Final Report and Supporting Materials Collection

I notice that the deniers always seem to overlook Trump's fake elector scheme as well. A bold attempt to disenfranchise voters in 7 states.
 

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On the same day that the true electors voted, at the direction of Trump campaign officials, "alternate slates" of Republican electors convened in seven states, most of which Biden had won by a relatively small margin, (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) to sign false certificates of ascertainment.^[38] This was ostensibly in case Texas v. Pennsylvania was ruled in favor of Trump. However, that case was thrown out on December 11, 2020, three days before the electoral vote was to occur, a fact that was withheld from most of the fake electors by Giuliani and Chesebro.^[39] In each case the false electors signed a facsimile of an Electoral College certificate of ascertainment, proclaiming Trump and Pence the victors, and sent it to the National Archives and to Congress.^[40]

The alternate elector certificates for Pennsylvania and New Mexico contained language indicating they would take effect only if the Trump campaign's challenges to the election results were sustained by the courts. In the other five states, the "alternate" certificates contained no indication that they were not genuine, and those states are prosecuting the alleged crime. These self-proclaimed electors have no legal standing, and the National Archives did not accept their documents, publishing the official (Biden) results from those states as the result of the election.^{[41][42][43][44]}

Okay, this is Wiki, but there are good references at the bottom.
 Trump fake electors plot

You can ignore the MSM bias, real or perceived, and research this from reasonably credible sources. If you choose not to accept any of this, then, it is on you.

Now, can we get back to Ukraine?

[sross112]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Certainly wasn't aimed at you, SBurke.  Was aimed at the Jan 6 semi-denier who thinks he's informed because he can falsely what-about both-sider any subject, despite the mountains of evidence against such a take.  As in senate investigation and the 165 page evidence dump that just occurred.  And 1000+ convictions (and counting) of the the traitors who attacked our capital because they are in the world's dumbest cult.

Ok smarty pants. I never once said that I didn't think Jan 6th was abhorrent and that those convicted and jailed shouldn't have been. If you could get past YOUR BIAS and READ, I was saying that BOTH sides show you what they want you to see. And at no point did I say I wasn't going to vote. I said I WISH that there were better candidates.

So instead of having a conversation about how the media is slanted no matter which source you watch, just name call, flame the poster, and make it personal. Classy. 

I get that you are scared of Trump and your reasons why, but believe it or not, there are people in this country that aren't hard right or hard left. That don't hang on every word that comes out of Fox or CNN, and just because they are skeptical of both sides does not mean they are stupid or small minded. They are generally referred to as independents because they don't toe either party line and vote for who they think is the best candidate.

I don't want Trump because I find him repulsive as a person, think his foreign policy is beyond stupid, and I don't like our country being represented by a 12 year old trapped in an 80 year old's body. I don't think Harris is the best candidate that could be on the ticket and don't think she will do a very good job with our economy (more of the same). But somehow that equals me being lumped in with the nutjobs. Nice. 

I only used Jan 6th as an example of how each side shows what they want their viewers to see. I never said it didn't happen or that it wasn't wrong. Probably should have come up with a different example so the politically charged wouldn't lose their minds. My bad. 

Oh, and @billbindc, I have friends with that agency that were on the line that day as well. I'm not in any way denying what actually happened. I was just using the disparity in reporting by different outlets as an example of how they push narratives. I was not trying to defend Fox and I also wasn't trying to rank each outlet on the disinformation scale to show which was worse. I was simply trying to use something that everyone was familiar with. Apparently a poor choice on my part.

[billbindc]

24 minutes ago, sross112 said:

 Oh, and @billbindc, I have friends with that agency that were on the line that day as well. I'm not in any way denying what actually happened. I was just using the disparity in reporting by different outlets as an example of how they push narratives. I was not trying to defend Fox and I also wasn't trying to rank each outlet on the disinformation scale to show which was worse. I was simply trying to use something that everyone was familiar with. Apparently a poor choice on my part.

What you said:  “Real similar to how Jan 6th is portrayed because it really depended on where you were. One side of the capitol was all peaceful and no problems, the other side a ****show. Fox plays the serenity scene and CNN plays the riot scene. Neither is telling the whole story. Both are lying.”

CNN was *not* lying when they called it a riot and the Capitol was actually attacked on both sides. I’ll leave it at that.

 

[Battlefront.com]

OK, enough with the news media bickering.  Somewhere out there is a Russian with connections to the government saying "good to see our plan is working!"  The fact is that we need to get our news from somewhere and wherever that is will have flaws.  But to say it's all pointless because they all lie to the same degree and for the same reasons is nonsense.  My personal experience is that the people most likely to believe this nonsense are also the ones that get their "news" from sources that are objectively the worst in terms of accuracy and overt agendas.

The fact is that we in the West have some damned good sources of information that qualify as mainstream media.  They aren't perfect, but they are vastly better than the crap that comes out of places like Russia.  Which is why Russia, China, Iran, etc. are actively trying to get us to not trust credible sources of information.

Now, let's move on.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

And while on the subject of trying to move us beyond diversions... the WW1 discussion had it's moments of relevance and then, as often happens with interesting topics that aren't related to this thread, it veered off into becoming a distraction.

What that said, it's difficult for me to see how we can properly assess and evaluate the war in Ukraine if we're getting a revisionist notion that WW1 wasn't an anomaly and was, apparently, not dissimilar to WW2.  While I am always open to new interpretations of the details of well documented events of the past, I am always leery of revisionist history that purports to upend the fundamentals.  Especially because there's often mixed motivations for rewriting history, some of which are decidedly counter to the pursuit of a better understanding of past events.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

Russian Su-34 Supersonic Fighter-Bomber Shot Down by F-16: Reports

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-sukhoi-f-16-1968041

Hopefully first of many!

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[MikeyD]

Ukrainian OPSEC on F16 use seems to be very high (Russia would see them as a prize target). Its no surprise that the only rumors we hear about F16 would come from the Russians

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

Ukrainian OPSEC on F16 use seems to be very high (Russia would see them as a prize target). Its no surprise that the only rumors we hear about F16 would come from the Russians

Yeah, when something is swatted out of the sky we're pretty much at the mercy of what Ukraine wants us to know.  It took quite some time for them to state they used Patriot to shoot down aircraft, but it was pieced together by OSINT through deductive reasoning. 

I expect OSINT analysis won't sit around waiting for Ukraine to say what happened. I think within a day or two we'll have some pretty good (but speculative) cases to wade through.  Until then, all we know is Russia lost another plane.  Which is the best thing to know

Steve

[kimbosbread]

Remember to watch the US get another step closer to total space dominance tomorrow (attempting to catch a 71m tall booster out of the air with a giant robotic tower). When we talk about the next war the US will be involved in, the ability to rapidly put hundreds of tons into orbit in a day or two for $10-100 per kg will present serious challenges to any adversaries.

 

[Letter from Prague]

26 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Remember to watch the US get another step closer to total space dominance tomorrow (attempting to catch a 71m tall booster out of the air with a giant robotic tower). When we talk about the next war the US will be involved in, the ability to rapidly put hundreds of tons into orbit in a day or two for $10-100 per kg will present serious challenges to any adversaries.

 

If only it wasn't owned by pro-Russia oligarch.

[Vanir Ausf B]

The Russians are behind the curve on this compared to Ukraine but may be catching up.
 

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The Russian military is systematizing the experience of using UAVs in combat. DefMin Belousov recently visited "Rubicon" - MOD's first Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies formed in August 2024 in one of the functioning UAV combat units. Belousov was given a report on the work of the Center's detachments in combat, the latest UAVs and UGVs were shown, along with the work of operators  and the analytical department that summarize information on the use of unmanned forces and assets. 

"Belousov held a meeting on the development of unmanned technologies and the further development of the Rubicon Center. Instructions were given to form and staff five more UAV detachments - their experience will form the basis of a new program for training tactical UAV specialists."

Belousov called for the creation of a UAV pilot/operator profession in official MOD military education: "...new military specialties must appear, the use of unmanned aircraft must be taught in military schools." This Rubicon Center was created on Belousov's orders to "finally systematize lesson from the past 2.5 years of war." Some Rus volunteers noted that "the training of drone operators and UAV development should be handled by the state, not by groups of enthusiasts."

There have been multiple calls from different Russian volunteer groups and individuals for official military education on the use of UAVs in combat, since numerous complaints made against many Russian officers included lack of understanding of how and where UAVs fit in today's Russian military formations. Much of the drone pilot training was initially undertaken by volunteers, and they also designed many tactics and concepts in use by the military today. The result was a lack of coordination in crafting such instructions resulting in uneven training quality and drone use across the front in numerous units. Belousov's Rubicon center is an attempt to better organize this vast knowledge into a more coherent approach to using and fielding UAVs and related tech in combat.

https://x.com/sambendett/status/1844725033752567961

 

Edited Saturday at 10:58 PM by Vanir Ausf B

[Silentkilarz]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-dead-after-fuel-station-blast-russias-chechnya-ministry-2024-10-12/

https://www.politico.eu/article/chechnya-warlord-ramzan-kadyrov-blood-feud-russia-mps-dagestan-ingushetia-assassination-plot/

 

Things seems to be getting a bit hot for Putin's Chechnya lapdog lately. Assassination attempt and now this.

[CHARLIE43]

Video of the explosion. Watch what looks like a tanker come rolling at the witness with the camera!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moment-fuel-tank-rolls-past-eyewitness-seconds-after-fuel-station-blast-in-russia-s-chechnya/vi-AA1s9Xtm?ocid=socialshare

[Silentkilarz]

2 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Video of the explosion. Watch what looks like a tanker come rolling at the witness with the camera!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moment-fuel-tank-rolls-past-eyewitness-seconds-after-fuel-station-blast-in-russia-s-chechnya/vi-AA1s9Xtm?ocid=socialshare

Reminds me of that infmaous FPS Russia video long ago

[CHARLIE43]

34 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

Reminds me of that infmaous FPS Russia video long ago

I was wondering if Chechnya had anything like the NTSB, OSHA, etc, and then I'm like yes, they probably do!

It's most likely Kadyrov and friends. So you know what that probably means.

More video of the same thing, but from a few different angles:

https://metro.co.uk/video/petrol-station-explodes-chechen-capital-3289319/?ito=vjs-link

Edited Sunday at 04:21 AM by CHARLIE43

[dan/california]

 

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Silentkilarz said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/four-dead-after-fuel-station-blast-russias-chechnya-ministry-2024-10-12/

https://www.politico.eu/article/chechnya-warlord-ramzan-kadyrov-blood-feud-russia-mps-dagestan-ingushetia-assassination-plot/

 

Things seems to be getting a bit hot for Putin's Chechnya lapdog lately. Assassination attempt and now this.

damn this seems like the perfect opportunity for a UA special ops team to stir up some trouble.

[Kraft]

Another day, another execution of 9 PoWs. Kursk region.

Edited Sunday at 09:25 AM by Kraft

[Holien]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4g5y80dr5vo

 

BBC reporting it.

Not great...

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The images published by DeepState showed the dead Ukrainian troops stripped to their underwear and lying face down in what appeared to be farmland in Kursk. The BBC cannot indepenelty verify the images.

The outlet said the drone operators had been overrun by a rapid Russian advance.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

Another day, another execution of 9 PoWs. Kursk region.

I suspect they were murdered precisely because they were drone operators.

Steve

[Sojourner]

For what it's worth, a criminal investigation is underway.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiga posted on X on Oct 13, calling for the international community to take immediate action by issuing warrants for Russian executioners, increasing sanctions, and demanding access to detention sites.

https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-generals-office-is-investigating-alleged-killing-of-9-pows-by-russians/

[Battlefront.com]

A couple of good articles in the Washington Post this weekend.

The first one is about how Russia is using Starlink at scale through black market behavior, hacking, and the difficulties of shutting down terminals at the front without risking turning off Ukrainian ones.  Of course there are accusations that Musk's pro-Russian views are playing a role, but to me it looks unlikely that's a significant factor. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/12/starlink-russia-ukraine-elon-musk/

Article on the hundreds of millions of Dollars in new investments by the EU into Ukraine's arms industry.  Some of the money is coming from the profits generated by frozen Russian assets.  It mentions Danish moves that have resulted in 18 Ukrainian produced SP artillery, drone production expected to hit 1.5m this year, and shell output increases:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/13/ukraine-defense-industry-denmark/

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/10/11/the-ukrainian-army-spotted-a-lone-russian-soldier-out-in-the-open-and-then-tested-a-deadly-new-drone-on-him/

Brovdi realized the Russians had deployed these guided FPVs back in January. In a video he shared with his many followers, Brovdi outlined a hypothetical A.I. drone sortie by an untalented Russian operator “who may not be very good at controlling.”

“He goes somewhere into the target zone, notices [a target] and points at it,” Brovdi explained. “And then the drone directs even at a moving target to hit.”

The Ukrainian military moved quickly to develop its own guided FPVs. By this spring, Ukraine’s A.I.-assisted drones were in testing. Six months later, they’re on the front line for combat use—and further refinement. If the 118th Mechanized Brigade’s brutal test strike against a live Russian is any indication, the drones already work pretty well.

Brovdi promised Ukraine’s guided FPV drones would get better, fast. “We will continue to develop them further,” he said.

 

This is not going to do anything but go faster, and faster. U.S military needs to light a REAL fire under its own programs.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/spacex-starship-rocket-test-flight-texas-elon-musk-mars/

SpaceX successfully completed a Starship rocket test flight, managing to catch the returning booster at the pad with mechanical arms — a crucial step in the quest to make fully reusable rockets.

The Starship rocket took off from a base in Texas at 7:25 a.m. local time. SpaceX then returned the rocket’s first-stage booster — which propels the craft off the ground — back to the launch site and caught it in midair using mechanical “chopsticks.”

 

Bleeping thing worked...