How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

And Zelensky can never be let into the same room with any member of the Russian Government. 

56 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

 

[Kinophile]

With the 331st VDV withdrawn as combat ineffective, and supposedly (verifiable?) the 200 MRB is functionally non-existent, I guess I should start striking out not just Commanders but entire units.

[Bil Hardenberger]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

We controlled 80 % of Irpin', two days ago Russians conducted an attempt to expand own zone of control and launched attacks from three sides. Looks like their atatck has finished with their final expulsion from the town.

On eastern direction from Kyiv, Russians switched from Brovary direction on Boryspil (there is largest airport of Ukraine near this town). This night and the morning their probes were repelled. Today this photo appeared with "UKR tankers inspect two captured T-72B3 in Kyiv oblast", Judging on terraine and "O" marking, this is east from Kyiv, but I don't know when and what place

That Russian movement on Boryspil looks to me like it could be a breakout attempt (if it came from Brovary area), because otherwise it doesn't make sense.

[akd]

22 minutes ago, kraze said:

It's a different location. Check the grass and the rear tank. On your photo it has commander's shield. Also you can clearly see they all are in different positions on the road between the two photos.

So yeah it's 2 times 2 captured tanks.

We just have a lot of roads like that.

Different tanks, same location (I mean road and area, not exact same scene from a different angle).  The T-72B above may already be Ukrainian and in use for recovering these T-72B3s.

Edited March 28, 2022 by akd

[sburke]

23 minutes ago, kraze said:

It's a different location. Check the grass and the rear tank. On your photo it has commander's shield. Also you can clearly see they all are in different positions on the road between the two photos.

So yeah it's 2 times 2 captured tanks.

We just have a lot of roads like that.

LOL a lot of roads with a lot of abandoned Russian tanks.  it all gets so confusing.  I could hear someone giving directions.  Go down the road an make a left at the T80.  If you see a T72 B3 you missed the left and you should turn around.  Unless it's the one with the commander shield in which case you might as well continue on as you've gone too far.

[danfrodo]

Hey all, I might get in trouble for this but I'm gonna do it anyway.

While we are all very concerned about the deaths in UKR it's also important to remember the other slaughter that's been going on for two years.  Another covid wave, very contagious, is on the way.  I know this crowd skews a bit older so lots of folks here are more at risk.

If you aint vaxxed, get vaxxed.  If you aint boosted, get boosted.  Only 50% of americans are boosted, though 75% are vaxxed.  Immune system resistance wanes over time, particularly w Pfizer (moderna better in this respect).  At Omicron peak we were losing ~2500 americans a day (~4000 per day at the pre-vaccine covid peak last year).  That nearly all those omicron deaths were PREVENTABLE is a tragedy.  And that tragedy is driven by propaganda, much of it spawned from Russia and percolated thru facebook.  So if you want to give a big FU to Putin, get your shots! 

I don't want to lose any of you excellent Combat Mission aficionados.

Hong Kong has a huge percentage of old people who refuse to get vaxxed, it's gonna be a bloodbath.

Thanks, I will take my vacation now.

[Kinophile]

Oh and Col. Gen Alexander Chayko, C/O WMD, is mentioned as taking command of the Kiev effort, attempting to re-organise/unfack it, esp the Western arm. 

Buuut he's been identified on social media in various places within that AO. Which has historically been SUCH good news for any RUS commander shoving forward towards the front.  I don't mean in that SM locating him = death sadly (it just confirms presence, at that one time; UKR/NATO intel must still pinpoint the little bugger) but that the fact that he's visible/present enough for SM to see him is good proof that he's too visible.

So, lets take odds on the Expected Lifespan of Komrad Chayko!

Now, I don't just mean this in a morbidly humorous way (although I do wish him nothing but ill) but lets see how long does it take for the AUF to take him out.

I give him 7 days. So, by

APRIL 4th - Col. Gen. A. Chayko - Dead, Wounded, Tanked Over or Sacked.

Takers?

Edited March 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[sburke]

deleted

Edited March 28, 2022 by sburke

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Oh and Col. Gen Alexander Chayko, C/O WMD, is mentioned as taking command of the Kiev effort, attempting to re-organise/unfack it, esp the Western arm. 

Buuut he's been identified on social media in various places within that AO. Which has been historically been SUCH good news for any RUS commander shoving forward towards the front.  I don't mean in that SM locating him = death (it just confirms presence, at that one time; UKR/NATO intel must still pinpoint the little bugger) but that the fact that he's visible/present enough for SM to see him is good proof that he's too visible.

So, lets take odds on the Expected Lifespan of Komrad Chayko!

Now, I don't just mean this in a morbidly humorous way (although I do wish him nothing but ill) but lets see how long does it take for the AUF to take him out.

I give him 7 days. So, by

APRIL 4th - Col. Gen. A. Chayko - Dead, Wounded, Tanked Over or Sacked.

Takers?

no.  I figure if he is at the top he must be really incompetent.  let's keep him around for a bit.

[BeondTheGrave]

The fact that peace negotiators were poisoned? Absolute madness. Its a violation of a European norm which dates back to the Romans. Youll recall that, according to Livy, the impetus for the crisis in 390BC which led to the attack and sacking was the murder of a Gallic diplomat and the violation of the norm of diplomatic immunity. 

If true, I just dont know what to say. 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

That Russian movement on Boryspil looks to me like it could be a breakout attempt (if it came from Brovary area), because otherwise it doesn't make sense.

As I understand from twitter post, these probes are from E / SE direction, probably from Berezan' or Baryshivka towns area.

[Kinophile]

actually a good point @sburke...

 I'm assuming all this UKR whackamolery is hitting the most competent guys, leaving the incompetent to keep on being more of a danger to their own men than the UA itself.  Because get rid of enough crappy guys and eventually someone actually capable, battle experienced and very annoyed steps in - and we don't want that.

Incidentally, that would be a fascinating layer to add to CMBS - killing a C/O or HQ stops it receiving further commands for X amount of time. The previous orders still stand and will be enacted but nothing new can be issued, with the delay being longer the further up the chain you go (as complexity increases).

In turn-based that could mean -

PLT - no change (sgt./cpl steps in)

COMPANY -  1 turns lost

BTT - 3 turns lost

So, if a BTT HQ is snail-trailed across the landscape, you cannot add or change orders for 3 turns. 

Thats MENTAL in CMBS time frames. But it would make decap strikes highly lucrative, as they are in RL. 

 

 

[dan/california]

Cn we get more likes please, it is enegetic to quote someone when all I want to do is point out how much I agree with them. 

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Oh and Col. Gen Alexander Chayko, C/O WMD, is mentioned as taking command of the Kiev effort, attempting to re-organise/unfack it, esp the Western arm. 

Buuut he's been identified on social media in various places within that AO. Which has historically been SUCH good news for any RUS commander shoving forward towards the front.  I don't mean in that SM locating him = death sadly (it just confirms presence, at that one time; UKR/NATO intel must still pinpoint the little bugger) but that the fact that he's visible/present enough for SM to see him is good proof that he's too visible.

So, lets take odds on the Expected Lifespan of Komrad Chayko!

Now, I don't just mean this in a morbidly humorous way (although I do wish him nothing but ill) but lets see how long does it take for the AUF to take him out.

I give him 7 days. So, by

APRIL 4th - Col. Gen. A. Chayko - Dead, Wounded, Tanked Over or Sacked.

Takers?

Too funny!  and what is wrong w being morbidly funny about Putin's Willing Executioners?  I will take the 'over' on this, I think he'll live past April 4, they've probably learned something at the higher level, though down lower they are still stuck w insecure comms and poor knowledge.  His subordinates, well, I wouldn't bet on them lasting very long. 

[Vacillator]

21 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Hey all, I might get in trouble for this but I'm gonna do it anyway.

While we are all very concerned about the deaths in UKR it's also important to remember the other slaughter that's been going on for two years.  Another covid wave, very contagious, is on the way.  I know this crowd skews a bit older so lots of folks here are more at risk.

If you aint vaxxed, get vaxxed.  If you aint boosted, get boosted.  Only 50% of americans are boosted, though 75% are vaxxed.  Immune system resistance wanes over time, particularly w Pfizer (moderna better in this respect).  At Omicron peak we were losing ~2500 americans a day (~4000 per day at the pre-vaccine covid peak last year).  That nearly all those omicron deaths were PREVENTABLE is a tragedy.  And that tragedy is driven by propaganda, much of it spawned from Russia and percolated thru facebook.  So if you want to give a big FU to Putin, get your shots! 

I don't want to lose any of you excellent Combat Mission aficionados.

Hong Kong has a huge percentage of old people who refuse to get vaxxed, it's gonna be a bloodbath.

Thanks, I will take my vacation now.

I have liked your 'controversial' off-topic post, even if it is *ahem* rather US-centric .

Somehow I don't think you'll be vacationing just yet .

Edited March 28, 2022 by Vacillator

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I have liked your 'controversial' off-topic post.  Somehow I don't think you'll be vacationing just yet .

Indeed it artfully danced thru the landmines.

 

[billbindc]

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The real lesson here is Biden was right, Putin has to go.

Classifying that statement as an intentional gaffe at this point.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Classifying that statement as an intentional gaffe at this point.

Classic main stream media nonsense.  They love to chase 'gaffes' and other nonsense.  There's endless mass murder and destruction and outright terrorism, but let's spend hours and hours parsing over 10 words. 

[keas66]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Classic main stream media nonsense.  They love to chase 'gaffes' and other nonsense.  There's endless mass murder and destruction and outright terrorism, but let's spend hours and hours parsing over 10 words. 

I thought the MSM were all distracted today by the  Epic Oscar Slap controversy 

Edited March 28, 2022 by keas66

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Classic media nonsense.  They love to chase 'gaffes' and other nonsense.  There's endless mass murder and destruction and outright terrorism, but let's spend hours and hours parsing over 10 words. 

fixed that.  "main stream media is way over used.  I don't even know what it means anymore.  Seems all media is parsing the hell out of that.   

I did like this.

Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, however, on Monday told CNN's John Berman that he was pleased to hear Biden's ad lib arrive when it did.

"I think Ukraine and Ukrainians were waiting for a long time for such a statement," Yushchenko said. "I think this statement is absolutely correct as to the challenges of our times."

[Kinophile]

Check, @danfrodo, thinks Chayko will live to see May..

[Bil Hardenberger]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As I understand from twitter post, these probes are from E / SE direction, probably from Berezan' or Baryshivka towns area.

Ah thanks, that makes a lot more sense... why not?  It's just one more axis they need to sustain.  

[DesertFox]

44 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

APRIL 4th - Col. Gen. A. Chayko - Dead, Wounded, Tanked Over or Sacked.

What about "tracked down" (pun intended), by one of his drivers?

[panzermartin]

Street fighting in Mariupol. Seems the city has fallen to Russians. Anyone know the numbers of the opposing forces here? I have read that 1500 Azov troops were the last defending force. 

 

[MG TOW]

CNN reported a group of Russian prisoners being knee capped which pretty much means they'll die of their wounds. Russians will probably have higher incentive to fight to death rather than surrender now that this is out.

(7) Ukraine promises "immediate investigation" after video surfaces of soldiers shooting Russian prisoners (cnn.com)

Sadly I shutter to think conditions are as bad or worse for Ukrainian prisoners. This is another ugly side to this war.