How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Sequoia said:

Just hoping this doesn't help revive credence to the notion of the super effectiveness of Mossad. We all saw one of the worst intelligence failures in history last year. 

Clearly their good people were working the Hezbollah file...

The broader implications of the "operation exploding pager"(tm) are beyond enormous. How does anybody, anywhere, certify that anything with a battery and internet connection CAN'T do this? 

[akd]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Clearly their good people were working the Hezbollah file...

The broader implications of the "operation exploding pager"(tm) are beyond enormous. How does anybody, anywhere, certify that anything with a battery and internet connection CAN'T do this? 

I’ll definitely only be purchasing models of mobile devices without HE in them in the future.

Edited Tuesday at 05:01 PM by akd

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Its been a while since we had casualty numbers talked about, thoughts on this and its accuracy? 

I find it difficult to believe that Ukraine's absolute WIA number is the same as Russia's, but I definitely buy that the KIA:WIA ratio is weighted towards wounded for Ukraine and killed for Russia.

I'm more inclined to believe the Ukraine 400k wounded number if that includes everything that required documented medical treatment.  In that case a large chunk of that would be very light wounds and probably multiple times for a single soldier.  Buuuut... I would still expect Russia's to be numerically higher in a true apples to apples comparison.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I find it difficult to believe that Ukraine's absolute WIA number is the same as Russia's, but I definitely buy that the KIA:WIA ratio is weighted towards wounded for Ukraine and killed for Russia.

I'm more inclined to believe the Ukraine 400k wounded number if that includes everything that required documented medical treatment.  In that case a large chunk of that would be very light wounds and probably multiple times for a single soldier.  Buuuut... I would still expect Russia's to be numerically higher in a true apples to apples comparison.

Steve

480,000 KIA/WIA! That's out of a force that has AFAIK never exceeded a million personnel, including support, medics, auxiliaries, etc.

....And it's not like they've rotated personnel through and sent (uncrippled) veterans home. Everyone is in for the duration.

That is Iran 1980s levels of attrition. Only others I can think of in recent times are various insurgent forces in Indochina (Viet Cong by 1972, Khmer Rouge by 1983, Hmong paramilitaries by 1976).

[mosuri]

A look at the towed artillery storage situation (getting to the bottom of the barrels barrel):

 

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@evroskjold/post/C__

Quote

 

izwWIUnl

Explosions reported in Engels, Russia, where Tu-95MS strategic bombers are based, according to Russian media.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/content/ar-AA1qHs03?ocid=sapphireappshare

Explosions Rock Russian Air Base Hosting Putin's Nuclear Bombers

 

 

Reports of fires visible on NASA FIRMS.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have long wondered why anybody talks about an EU military when it would be far easier, politically at least, to have a NATO wide integration plan that nations agree to contribute to.  It would achieve the same end result.  A component of funding could come from the EU in the form of cost sharing (tax credits, incentives, etc.) as well.

Steve

That one is actually fairly simple to answer: An EU military would be under European control, while a NATO army would basically be under US control. The French are particularly against the latter and also think they would dominate a EU army (which is why they push the idea). But also other nations (e.g. Germany) would be way more comfortable with a purely European solution.

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The poor maintenance state of the BW has been, as you say, a fixture of NATO preparedness criticisms for years.  I still remember a report that came out a long time ago that highlighted the problems with the navy, detailing how many ships and subs it had and how many were able to put to sea.  The ratio was depressing.

The lack of spare parts is really, really short sighted.  So much for Germany's vaunted stereotype of being meticulous planners

A very long time ago I thought that Germany should radically downsize the BW in order for the remainder to be fully funded.  Last time I checked there is still too much of the Cold War mobilization concept baked into how the BW is structured.

Steve

I don't know that specific stereotype. But there should definitely be some kind of regulation and corresponding processes to adhere to regarding spare parts. Oh well.

Really, contrary to @Carolus I am absolutely convinced budget is not the issue here (which is no comfort at all because otherwise the problem could easily be solved with throwing more money at it). The BW Beschaffingsamt, the German agency responsible for acquiring all the hardware is notoriously bloated, incompetent and has too close ties to the industry.

And you are right with the Cold War setup. While I still think that it was the right decision to go from conscript to professional army, it was done without a concept of how to do that. Surprise, surprise, people didn't suddenly flood the recruitment offices. Instead, young men who had previously been forced to either join the army or do (longer) civil service simply went to university or took a job directly. Contrary to other nations, joining the army is not a well regarded way to make something out of your life. You are simply suspicious. (Exception: join the army to study medicine)

[holoween]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't know that specific stereotype. But there should definitely be some kind of regulation and corresponding processes to adhere to regarding spare parts. Oh well.

Really, contrary to @Carolus I am absolutely convinced budget is not the issue here (which is no comfort at all because otherwise the problem could easily be solved with throwing more money at it). The BW Beschaffingsamt, the German agency responsible for acquiring all the hardware is notoriously bloated, incompetent and has too close ties to the industry.

And you are right with the Cold War setup. While I still think that it was the right decision to go from conscript to professional army, it was done without a concept of how to do that. Surprise, surprise, people didn't suddenly flood the recruitment offices. Instead, young men who had previously been forced to either join the army or do (longer) civil service simply went to university or took a job directly. Contrary to other nations, joining the army is not a well regarded way to make something out of your life. You are simply suspicious. (Exception: join the army to study medicine)

Not to necessairily disagree with your points but the core issue is that the armys budget kept getting smaller during the last 20 years and had to somehow pay for the afghanistan war through that budget. So the only choice given the budget was to keep stuff running by running down the ammo reserves, spare parts reserves, vehicle reserves and reducing troop numbers.

So regardless of incompentencies which certainly exist to some degree the issue was lack of proper funding for 20 years so all of the industry simply closed down production lines or had to ask for higher prices due to low orders which thanks to weapons export policy couldnt even be adequately made up with foreign sales.

The 100m€ special fund was supposed to eat into this investment deficit with the regular budget going to the 2%gdp NATO target. Where the blame for Lindner is absolutely justified is that now the 100m€ get cannibalized to get the 2% NATO target while the regular budget stagnates.

[Eug85]

Kamil Galeev shares his thoughts on Prigozhin's uprising in 2023. And also some observations on the security system in Russia.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Kamil Galeev shares his thoughts on Prigozhin's uprising in 2023. And also some observations on the security system in Russia.

Can somebody post the whole thing? Twitter still hates me...

[Carolus]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Can somebody post the whole thing? Twitter still hates me...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1836108608536482255.html

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1836108608536482255.html

Thank you!

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Carolus said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1836108608536482255.html

Thanks for the assist!

Some good observations.  I know several of us here were talking about the growth of Wagner and the increasingly important role it started taking on as a sign of trouble to come.  Those of us who have some understanding about Russia's clan system understood that Wagner was upsetting the balance.  What we didn't know at the time was who was allowing it be upsetting.  At times we thought Putin was benefiting, other times the Army and even the security services.  Someone was allowing this to happen and I'm still not sure what the original thinking was, other than perhaps desperation at the front.

However, it is zero surprise that the rank and file of Wagner were not punished.  Russia needs every soldier it can get and their loyalty or military value aren't particularly important given that they are likely to die sooner rather than later.  If this were peacetime things would be very different.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, it is zero surprise that the rank and file of Wagner were not punished.  Russia needs every soldier it can get and their loyalty or military value aren't particularly important given that they are likely to die sooner rather than later.  If this were peacetime things would be very different.

Speaking of which I read somewhere that they finally sent Ghirkin to the SMO. Do we believe that? And is he still alive? The Pickle is my #1 pick for repeating Prig's march on Moscow.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Speaking of which I read somewhere that they finally sent Ghirkin to the SMO. Do we believe that? And is he still alive? The Pickle is my #1 pick for repeating Prig's march on Moscow.

According to his wife, he's still in jail with his offer to join the fighting being denied.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-girkin-strelkov-not-fighting-ukraine/33115997.html

Steve

[Holien]

It sucks to be a kid in Russia...

 

One way of shoring up the lack of labour.

 

 

 

[Eug85]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Speaking of which I read somewhere that they finally sent Ghirkin to the SMO. Do we believe that? And is he still alive? The Pickle is my #1 pick for repeating Prig's march on Moscow.

From what I read, Girkin was denied a transfer to the front because he was convicted under a political article. In fact, imagine that the Ukrainian Armed Forces capture such an important witness of Putin's crimes in Crimea and Donbass. Putin, as an experienced intelligence officer, cannot allow such evidence against himself. In addition, I think that he does not trust Girkin and is afraid of his authority among the military. He has had enough experience with Prigozhin

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Holien said:

It sucks to be a kid in Russia...

 

One way of shoring up the lack of labour.

 

 

 

It all implies they are that much further up the ladder of complete economic meltdown...

 

[Carolus]

 

One of the problems of arming drones with a firearm is the lack of "leverage" in the air, which makes recoil an uncontrollable force.

The slower speed of 30mm or 40mm grenades might be less hard to compensate for. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:40 PM by Carolus

[acrashb]

23 minutes ago, Carolus said:

The slower speed of 30mm or 40mm grenades might be less hard to compensate for. 

Recoil of AK-47 in 7.62x39mm: about 2.4 ft-lbs

Recoil of a 40mm M203 grenade launcher: about 20-30 ft-lbs.

So, more hard to compensate for.

[Carolus]

4 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Recoil of AK-47 in 7.62x39mm: about 2.4 ft-lbs

Recoil of a 40mm M203 grenade launcher: about 20-30 ft-lbs.

So, more hard to compensate for.

Well, so much for that hypothesis.

Edit: Attempt 2: since it is hard to aim with a drone, the grenade increases the chance of an effective hit.

Edited Tuesday at 09:12 PM by Carolus

[Vet 0369]

On 9/15/2024 at 10:18 PM, Vanir Ausf B said:

Shhh... Agreement is boring

If everyone’s thinking the same thing, someone’s not thinking!

[acrashb]

28 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Edit: Attempt 2: since it is hard to aim with a drone, the grenade increases the chance of an effective hit.

That would be my thinking.  It may also be an experiment, among many, to see what is operationally more effective and efficient (time/money).

[Vet 0369]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:39 AM, Eug85 said:

According to Russian media, Russia will increase the number of its armed forces by 180 thousand people by December, and their total number will be almost 2.4 million people.

And how many rounds does Ukraine have?