How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

2 minutes ago, Twisk said:

you watch the video at the 6 second mark the BMP-2 fires at the Ukrainian vehicle

Thanks my mobile phone doesn't show enough detail and will check it out on a pc screen later.

I am guessing a meeting engagement and integrated communication is vital in such close action.

I guess Kursk as it's been pretty fluid there.

[ArmouredTopHat]

7 minutes ago, Twisk said:

If you watch the video at the 6 second mark the BMP-2 fires at the Ukrainian vehicle.
 

 

- BMP-3 is looking away from the Ukrainian humvee

- BMP-2 drives down towards the BMP-3 and fires on the humvee. The BMP driver doesn't stop though and the gun can no longer turn and engage due to the drone cage.

- BMP-3 gunner/TC notices the Ukrainian vehicle and slews the gun 180 beginning to fire.

- BMP-2 is in the line of fire

 

My guess is that the BMP-3 crew was panicked by the appearance of the Ukranians behind them and this would give some credence to them firing on the BMP-2 as if it were an enemy. The only question I have is what the heck the Ukrainian humvee team was expecting to do driving up on the BMP-3 like that?

 

Chaos of combat is a thing, even with all the drones and modern technology on the battlefield the pacing of modern combat can still run ahead and result in this sorts of crazy situations. Its why mission command and flexibility are so valued in NATO forces to help deal with such situations. 

We know that Russian units often struggle to coordinate between each other, this is no doubt exasperated by friendly fire and increasingly inexperienced forces being used, as well as the more mobile and fluid nature of combat in the Kursk region. 

[akd]

K-2 Battalion, 54 Mech Bde defending against Russian mini mech assaults.

Edited August 22 by akd

[Jiggathebauce]

People keep talking about demographic crises and it's clear they don't get it because skin isn't in the game for what I assume are mostly old timers with plenty of retirement cash and paid off houses - WE CANT AFFORD TO HAVE FAMILIES IN THIS ECONOMY AND ITS NOT GETTING BETTER. You want me to raise a family when houses in ghettoes with crumbling infrastructure are unaffordable, no affordable child care and a culture of rugged individualism where extended families don't stay together. I'm a young 30s something, married, not having kids. You want people to have kids? PAY US.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Astrophel said:

On this track record I will not make a new prediction.  I do however think we could and should do a lot more to influence hearts and minds in "Russia" - whatever russia is.  Message 1) West is not a threat.  Message 2) It is fun to be free.  Message 3) West will help! 

I strongly suggest you do some in depth reading on what drives Putin's world view. This war is happening to a significant degree because American soft power is such an obvious threat to the power structure that runs Russia. The modern West's foundational political idea is that government should be representational. It is such a powerful idea that even the siloviks in Russia...who do not want to give up a scintilla of control...must ape it in order to justify their rule. This is not a "fun, freedom and thanks for the scraps from your table" crowd. 

[Astrophel]

Putin is a crank.  He wants to build a new Russian Empire and be welcomed in the pantheon of Russian empire builders.  He cannot be reached.  The people we need to reach are the ordinary soldiers and families of soldiers - the ordinary people of russia who should walk aways from this misconceived project.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Nice, you have wilfully missed the point of my quoting Jefferson, who himself was quoting (European) Enlightenment thinkers,  to go in for cheap Yankee bashing.

Do you have a better future in mind for Ukraine (and Russia) than, ahem 'Chuck E Cheese', or is it basically Okrajina, a perpetual armed camp with Ukrainians under 50 all emigrating?

Hey, reelpolitik bites, but history shows nothing better can really be expected of you Slavs. Otherwise, it's SS-18s in pawnshops.

Gosh, I feel so strategic now, thanks.

Your point was not subtle even if you were trying to be.  Of course the Declaration (my bad) did not go well for all "Yankees" who were not male and white, so as a universal  "enlightened" view of how society should work it was great unless one was Native, Black, Mexican or even Irish.  The seeds of that inequality and its effects contributed to the US Civil War.

So before we start feeling all clever we might want to consider the realities around that Declaration and the fact that they might not translate to a nation on the other side of the globe with a completely different set of problems and cultures.

As to solutions and the future....not worse. That is where we are at.  Anyone else who is spouting visions of whatever they are smoking is not being pragmatic or playing in "realpolitik".  We can hope for a Russian offramp that leads them to a slow Ottoman decline.  We can hope for a new regime with cleaner hands that we can try to renormalize with (as this thing drags out I am more skeptical).  We can plan to rebuild Ukraine and pull it into the Western Sphere both in security and economies. I think we are aiming for 1905 here and not 1917, with a view to risk managing in the future.

And here is the really scary truth - even if we manage to keep the nuclear power club exactly as it is...one day one of these power will fail.  No society in human history has lasted forever. Look at any ancient civilization like the Egyptians, they collapse more than once.  China...same. US, one day it too will whither and die. So you wanna be "strategic" stop reading Jefferson and start reading up on plate spinning, because that is where we are.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Come on now...Russia is *not* just held together by force. Shared language, culture, economics, infrastructure and external geopolitical pressures all have their part to play. It may decohere at times and the periphery may expand and contract but there has been an identifiable polity centered there since at least the 13th century. We need look no farther than the evident nationalism still supporting the war in Ukraine to see that that identity is still a powerful force. Unbreakable? No but it is bad analysis to underestimate it. 

We need to come up with a clear picture of Russia.  I thought Russia was a land of apathetic, disconnected and disenfranchised who could care less if Kursk got invaded or we rained ATACMs all over the western side of it.  Now they are a proud people of unity and shared history.  The picture of the "real" Russia seems to be dealers choice.

I do agree with you here though.  Russia is a nation with a long history, good and bad.  There is clearly some national glue holding it together - not just fear and guns as some have claimed.  But my point is that we seem to over or under estimate this depending on whatever one is selling.  To my mind Russian nationalism and identity are definitely a factor, but for the life of me, we cant seem to get a good bead on just how potent a factor.

[Holien]

Better view of the Neptune strike.

It was carrying a lot of rail oil tankers

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

If you watch the video at the 6 second mark the BMP-2 fires at the Ukrainian vehicle.
 

 

- BMP-3 is looking away from the Ukrainian humvee

- BMP-2 drives down towards the BMP-3 and fires on the humvee. The BMP driver doesn't stop though and the gun can no longer turn and engage due to the drone cage.

- BMP-3 gunner/TC notices the Ukrainian vehicle and slews the gun 180 beginning to fire.

- BMP-2 is in the line of fire

 

My guess is that the BMP-3 crew was panicked by the appearance of the Ukranians behind them and this would give some credence to them firing on the BMP-2 as if it were an enemy. The only question I have is what the heck the Ukrainian humvee team was expecting to do driving up on the BMP-3 like that?

 

There's also a huge white V on the front of the BMP-2, which is an exclusive Russian identification symbol (hold over from the initial invasion).  No Ukrainian vehicle would have that on it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, Holien said:

Better view of the Neptune strike.

It was carrying a lot of rail oil tankers

 

Russia's TASS news organization released a statement about this attack:

"Air defenses shot down 56 incoming missiles, but debris from one of them started a small fire on the rear deck of the ship.  It is not expected to be out of service for more than a few days."

OK, I just made that up, but I bet if I Googled I might find something pretty close to that for real

Steve

[sross112]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

People keep talking about demographic crises and it's clear they don't get it because skin isn't in the game for what I assume are mostly old timers with plenty of retirement cash and paid off houses - WE CANT AFFORD TO HAVE FAMILIES IN THIS ECONOMY AND ITS NOT GETTING BETTER. You want me to raise a family when houses in ghettoes with crumbling infrastructure are unaffordable, no affordable child care and a culture of rugged individualism where extended families don't stay together. I'm a young 30s something, married, not having kids. You want people to have kids? PAY US.

If everyone waited until they could "afford" children, we wouldn't be in a crisis, we'd be extinct.

[acrashb]

4 minutes ago, sross112 said:

If everyone waited until they could "afford" children, we wouldn't be in a crisis, we'd be extinct.

My house raised six children with the original owner.  It had two bedrooms.  Now it has one more (an addition).
They made do, and I've met some of the now-adult children who turned out just fine.
Skip a few lattes  

[Vanir Ausf B]

Sirsky provided missile and drone interception rates from February '22 to present.

•  from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine
• Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676

• Missiles and Drones:

  Total Missiles Launched: 9,590

  Total Drones Launched: 13,997

  Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%)

  Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%)

• Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander):

  Interception Rate: 67%

  These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets

• Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31):

  Interception Rate: 22%

  Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense

• Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet):

  Launched: 13,315

  Intercepted: 8,836 (63%)

  These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate.

• Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23):

  Launched: 1,388

  Interception Rate: 4.5%

  Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure

• Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground  (S-300, S-400):

  Launched: 3,008

  Interception Rate: 0.63%

  These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097)

• Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

  Launched: 362

  Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

  These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory

• "Onyx" Missile:

  Launched: 211

  Intercepted: 12 (5.7%)

  High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets

• Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 "Kinzhal"):

  Launched: 111

  Intercepted: 28 (25%)

  These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted

• "Zircon" Missile:

  Launched: 6

  Intercepted: 2

  Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1826208201102036998

https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/08/20/7471189/

https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/sirskij_opriljudniv_skilki_zagalom_vorog_vikoristav_raket_ta_droniv_skilki_perehopili_j_skilki_objektiv_urazheno-16370.html

[mosuri]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And here is the really scary truth - even if we manage to keep the nuclear power club exactly as it is...one day one of these power will fail.  No society in human history has lasted forever.

Might not need to wait that long -- is Pakistan still carting its warheads around the country in unsecured civilian vans? Not that the country is the epitome of stability to begin with ...

[Jiggathebauce]

42 minutes ago, acrashb said:

My house raised six children with the original owner.  It had two bedrooms.  Now it has one more (an addition).
They made do, and I've met some of the now-adult children who turned out just fine.
Skip a few lattes  

Jesus Christ, it's not avocado toast when people are spending more than than 50 percent of their income on housing, with less purchasing power than ANY of you had. Again, PAY US. I'm not gonna live in poverty and break my body and spirit to fund your pension and social security that you're telling me I won't have when I'm old. You're welcome by the way .And for those of us that do private ourselves with children, don't be mad that we aren't spending luxury goods in our attempt to keep lights on and children fed and clothed. 

Edited August 22 by Jiggathebauce

[Battlefront.com]

OK, let's leave the unrelated economics out of this discussion.

Demographic problems have been persistent for decades in industrialized nations.  Relative cost of living can't be the major driver of that since life is not easily boiled down to just one thing. 

Steved

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We need to come up with a clear picture of Russia.  I thought Russia was a land of apathetic, disconnected and disenfranchised who could care less if Kursk got invaded or we rained ATACMs all over the western side of it.  Now they are a proud people of unity and shared history.  The picture of the "real" Russia seems to be dealers choice.

I do agree with you here though.  Russia is a nation with a long history, good and bad.  There is clearly some national glue holding it together - not just fear and guns as some have claimed.  But my point is that we seem to over or under estimate this depending on whatever one is selling.  To my mind Russian nationalism and identity are definitely a factor, but for the life of me, we cant seem to get a good bead on just how potent a factor.

My argument is that "all of the above" applies in highly complex and hard to predict ways. Russians *are* apathetic in some senses as is obvious from the reaction of folks in Kursk to the Ukrainian incursion or more generally to Prigozhin's rid to Moscow. And yet, they also have very strongly held cultural and historical bonds that are very hard to sever and which allow Putin to draw out resources from his population that I doubt many imagined in February of 2022. 

My proposal to folks here is that the one or the other approach simplifies the issue and is a significant set of blinkers when looking at the over all picture. 

[Andreas3]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

My house raised six children with the original owner.  It had two bedrooms.  Now it has one more (an addition).
They made do, and I've met some of the now-adult children who turned out just fine.
Skip a few lattes  

Please go jump off a cliff. 

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Might not need to wait that long -- is Pakistan still carting its warheads around the country in unsecured civilian vans? Not that the country is the epitome of stability to begin with ...

A fragility score of 91 - they make Russia look solid:

https://fragilestatesindex.org/country-data/

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My argument is that "all of the above" applies in highly complex and hard to predict ways. Russians *are* apathetic in some senses as is obvious from the reaction of folks in Kursk to the Ukrainian incursion or more generally to Prigozhin's rid to Moscow. And yet, they also have very strongly held cultural and historical bonds that are very hard to sever and which allow Putin to draw out resources from his population that I doubt many imagined in February of 2022. 

My proposal to folks here is that the one or the other approach simplifies the issue and is a significant set of blinkers when looking at the over all picture. 

Have I told you how much you political operatives make my head hurt like an ice cream hit?  It is always “all of the above” with you guys.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And yet, they also have very strongly held cultural and historical bonds that are very hard to sever and which allow Putin to draw out resources from his population that I doubt many imagined in February of 2022. 

I think this is too broad a statement.  For European Russia, I agree.  But the further south and east one goes the more nuanced and complex this becomes.  Put another way, the breaking point for Novgorod breaking away from Moscow is wildly different than something like Grozny. 

Further, there are some really stupid things that Moscow could do that would affect one group in a different way than another.  For example, some sort of change in status for Islam at a time that the whole country is already under death watch.  Someone in Kalinningrad will not take the news the same way someone in Dagastan would.

There are also the other opportunities to consider.  If things go to crap, the people in the Kursk region don't really have alternative suitors, but China, Georgia, and the larger Stans may present a better offer to regions they border.

The bonds are, therefore, unevenly strong and weak across the country.  We should not treat them as if they are all equal.

Steve

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Have I told you how much you political operatives make my head hurt like an ice cream hit?  It is always “all of the above” with you guys.

All of the above...as the world is. 

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think this is too broad a statement.  For European Russia, I agree.  But the further south and east one goes the more nuanced and complex this becomes.  Put another way, the breaking point for Novgorod breaking away from Moscow is wildly different than something like Grozny. 

Further, there are some really stupid things that Moscow could do that would affect one group in a different way than another.  For example, some sort of change in status for Islam at a time that the whole country is already under death watch.  Someone in Kalinningrad will not take the news the same way someone in Dagastan would.

There are also the other opportunities to consider.  If things go to crap, the people in the Kursk region don't really have alternative suitors, but China, Georgia, and the larger Stans may present a better offer to regions they border.

The bonds are, therefore, unevenly strong and weak across the country.  We should not treat them as if they are all equal.

Steve

That's why I made the point earlier that the Russian state has decohered and reconstituted over time...but very importantly a Russian state of some sort has endured for hundreds of years whatever cycle it happens to be in at any given moment. Full collapse is a high risk but quite low likelihood event given what you know as of now.

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That's why I made the point earlier that the Russian state has decohered and reconstituted over time...but very importantly a Russian state of some sort has endured for hundreds of years whatever cycle it happens to be in at any given moment. Full collapse is a high risk but quite low likelihood event given what you know as of now.

It's difficult to assess what if the conditions that have kept the Russian Empire largely intact over the centuries is still applicable.  For example, in the old Tzarist days there wasn't much Siberia had going for it.  Not a great place to be independent and its neighbors were often in pretty poor condition themselves.  But Siberia now with all its gas resources next to a very ambitious and decidedly superior China?  Well, I'm not sure if that makes a difference, but I'm certainly not sure it doesn't.

Anyway, my point still stands.  The strength of the bonds to the Russian state are not equally strong.  We already saw some long standing Russian Empire domains break away from Russia in 1990.  Huge swaths, in fact.  I don't know why it's so hard to believe it could happen again.  Especially for ones like Chechnya that tried to break away by armed means.

Steve