Jump to content
Battlefront is now Slitherine ×

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Either of the UA or of their own officers killing them.  Yeah I am being sarcastic.

We do know from the goat's own mouth and POWs captured in Kursk that Akhmat are there, and we also know that one of their primary roles has been as barrier troops and persuaders. Not being sarcastic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/14/2024 at 10:45 PM, Lethaface said:

However Poland stated Germany has made a mistake in issuing the arrest warrant and didn't supply it to the border guard equivalent, so now the individual has managed to flee from Poland to Ukraine. Ergo, PL doesn't seem to be very motivated to cooperate with the German fact finding / justice mission.

That’s an understatement. The Germans will get as much cooperation from Poles as the Austro-Hungarians did from the Serbian government in the enquiry against the assassins of archduke Ferdinand. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

I would appreciate some context to 2 videos I saw.

Not to post the Videos here, the soldier with a gasmask was checking up on one of these rus underground Bunkers.

The floor was littered with decomposing russians in combat gear. I mean piles of them. The guy was walking not over but on them through the corridor because the entire floor was covered. 

My best guess would be this is connected to the mass surrender of the encircled conscripts/fsb/whatever, one of the videos showed the SBU in 'combat' with someone inside for a brief moment.

What Im wondering is how did they die, the rest of the place looked mostly undamaged so I doubt there was fighting. Either they were smoked out and suffocated (without the whole wood interior burning down somehow)? No rifles present but they may have been collected before the video was shot.

https://x.com/Fitek69/status/1824058228541427831

There are signs of fight there, destroyed furniture, burned remains etc. I would vote they were killed by thermobarics and rest choke with smokee. Or something big hit them from the top while we simply don't see the crater on camera, as clip s incomplete. It is even possible their comrades made a dump for dead bodies killed elsewhere, after which they decomposed. I think it is still less mysterious than what killed those guys on the trucks...

 

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That’s an understatement. The Germans will get as much cooperation from Poles as the Austro-Hungarians did from the Serbian government in the enquiry against the assassins of archduke Ferdinand. 

To be precise, nobody is particulary interested in this enquiry including most DE government- if I understand, retired chief of BND who made last heavy claims worked there during Schroeder and is partially responsible for state of this agency... Also, I don't believe Duda would make sovereign decision to blow up with Zelensky only. Snowballs chnce in hell; not this type of guy.

 

Several Russian milbloggers write larger coumn was destroyed on road to Koronevo "in the same way as near Rylsk". Probably some pictures will emerge.

Edited by Beleg85
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I think it is still less mysterious than what killed those guys on the trucks...

But the aftermath pictures all showed tungsten ball impacts all over the armored cabin 

Screenshot-20240816-125104-Chrome.jpg

As for signs of fighting, Id assume they tried to use the mattress to block the smoke/.. from getting into the corridor, they all died clustered at the very dead end of it huddled together

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

https://x.com/Fitek69/status/1824058228541427831

There are signs of fight there, destroyed furniture, burned remains etc. I would vote they were killed by thermobarics and rest choke with smoke.

 

The bunker failed its fire code inspection.

Presuming you mean flight instead of fight, I agree this is a fire/smoke event. The fire could have been ignited by any sort of thing. They fled a fire and stampeded into a dead end and died of smoke inhalation. The bodies are a packed-in jumble which indicates a stampede in the dark. The body surfaces look sooty but without wounds making me think smoke inhalation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

The bunker failed its fire code inspection.

Presuming you mean flight instead of fight, I agree this is a fire/smoke event. The fire could have been ignited by any sort of thing. They fled a fire and stampeded into a dead end and died of smoke inhalation. The bodies are a packed-in jumble which indicates a stampede in the dark. The body surfaces look sooty but without wounds making me think smoke inhalation.

I agree - if a mattress caught fire in that space with all those wooden surfaces a lot of smoke would be generated very quickly. And if the entrances are blocked then they wouldn't have a chance. Probably carbon monoxide poisoning killed them. 

Edit: And you might have been joking about the fire code inspection but for real that bunker does not comply with any fire code I'm aware of.

Edited by hcrof
Clarity
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Kraft said:

But the aftermath pictures all showed tungsten ball impacts all over the armored cabin 

Thanks for pictures, did not see this clip aftermath.

6 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

The bunker failed its fire code inspection.

Presuming you mean flight instead of fight, I agree this is a fire/smoke event. The fire could have been ignited by any sort of thing. They fled a fire and stampeded into a dead end and died of smoke inhalation. The bodies are a packed-in jumble which indicates a stampede in the dark. The body surfaces look sooty but without wounds making me think smoke inhalation.

Could be true, though hard to tell what stopped them from simply leaving the bunker- 90% of guys in such situation would prefer Ukrainian prison or even bullets than being choked to death. Also some would have gas masks and regular smoke does not kill so fast; it's not a submarine. On some Russian channels there is a claim they fell victims to chemical weapons "and we should pay chochols in kind", but it's norm there anyway.

 

There are reports fighting is ongoing in villages north of Koronevo- Tolpino and Kolychevka, as well as capturing eastern part of the village itself. Sometimes news are confusing since there are 2 Koronevo settlements- village south and town north.

GVF276CXsAArne1?format=jpg&name=large

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Thanks for pictures, did not see this clip aftermath.

Could be true, though hard to tell what stopped them from simply leaving the bunker- 90% of guys in such situation would prefer Ukrainian prison or even bullets than being choked to death. Also some would have gas masks and regular smoke does not kill so fast; it's not a submarine. On some Russian channels there is a claim they fell victims to chemical weapons "and we should pay chochols in kind", but it's norm there anyway.

 

I can't say why they couldn't leave, but carbon monoxide poisoning can kill in 5 minutes. 

In regular buildings the windows break and lots of oxygen comes in to feed the fire, resulting in fast hot fires. In an oxygen-poor bunker like this that can't happen. Any fire will smoulder more producing much more smoke and carbon monoxide. Combine with it being a fuel rich environment with narrow, easily blocked means of escape and it looks like a bit of a deathtrap.

Edited by hcrof
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another good video from the "War Archive" YouTube channel, this one a 20 minute overview of the battle of Vuhledar The format is basically putting together a narrative of the main events and what units were fighting on both sides.

Nothing new in that sense, but he puts together a more coherent narrative of what was going on in some battles that we don't really see so much here when we're looking at random bits of footage and reports as they get released. 

 

Edited by TheVulture
I really can't spell Vuhledar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1etj32v/ua_flying_skull_drone_team_flew_over_the_uaru/

UA "Flying Skull" drone team flew over the UA-RU border into Kurshchyna (Russia's Kursk region), using FPV strike drones to destroy several heavy trucks as well as smaller vehicles. Published August 16, 2024

 

Several Russian supply trucks meeting bad ends. The Kursk incursion seems to have forced the Russians to move a lot of stuff in a much more exposed manner. it appears the Ukrainians were prepared to make that expensive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1et64j8/ukrainian_drone_unit_justice_team_unspecified/Ukrainian drone unit "Justice Team" (unspecified brigade/battalion) used FPV strike drones to destroy Russian self-propelled guns (mobile artillery) 2S19 Msta-S. [Via Telegram operativnoZSU via Instagram apparently] Published August 15, 2024

Russian SPGs getting deleted, the video gives me the feeling that some of these hits were done with something higher grade than the usual modified civilian stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Potentially a significant cauldron is forming...

 

Quote

#Kursk oblast #Glushkov bridge today. Its importance is that the area surrounded by Seym river is connected to the rest of the oblast by only three bridges and the river is difficult in crossing. This single bridge makes supplies and reinforcements impossible for a Russian group of around 700.

https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112972307276038173

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hcrof said:

I can't say why they couldn't leave, but carbon monoxide poisoning can kill in 5 minutes. 

In regular buildings the windows break and lots of oxygen comes in to feed the fire, resulting in fast hot fires. In an oxygen-poor bunker like this that can't happen. Any fire will smoulder more producing much more smoke and carbon monoxide. Combine with it being a fuel rich environment with narrow, easily blocked means of escape and it looks like a bit of a deathtrap.

I was one of the fire wardens on my floor in an office building in SF.  To qualify we had to participate in a fire dept program on what to do etc.  Smoke inhalation was the biggest warning - do not stand up in a fire.  The leading cause of death in fires is smoke inhalation.  Once you have trouble breathing and can't see, rational decision making quickly goes out the window.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

By dropping the Seym River bridge at Glushkovo, Ukrainian forces just created a highly uncomfortable situation for the remaining Russian forces south of the river.

Those forces now rely on a winding route over two smaller bridges, already targeted by Ukrainian missiles.

Quoted: Early today in Russia's Kursk Oblast, a Ukrainian HIMARS successfully dropped the bridge over the Seym River at Glushkovo, effectively cutting off Russian troops in the town.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly already targeted those smaller crossings.
h/t @AndrewPerpetua for the base map

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

If Ukraine is feeling ambitious? And they can cause the Russian troops on the wrong side of that river to panic? Two big ifs to be sure, that river would make a fantastic place to anchor a new front line.

Edit: Also, who else thinks that bridge was hit by something much bigger than a GMLRS?

Edited by dan/california
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If Ukraine is feeling ambitious? And they can cause the Russian troops on the wrong side of that river to panic? Two big ifs to be sure, that river would make a fantastic place to anchor a new front line.

Edit: Also, who else thinks that bridge was hit by something much bigger than a GMLRS?

I think it's less ambitious than it is indicative of a plan to hold onto the terrain. That river would anchor the flank effectively and dropping the bridges makes securing the line that much easier. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think it's less ambitious than it is indicative of a plan to hold onto the terrain. That river would anchor the flank effectively and dropping the bridges makes securing the line that much easier. 

More popcorn!  This is getting to be fascinating.  Stepping back from the actualities of people dying every day in this, it's an utterly fascinating series of events.  UKR bold move, RU panic & sloppy response, UKR ambush the rescuers, RU continued sloppy response, UKR recon ranging far & wide with minimal resistance on some paths.  UKR looking like it has lots of options & agency in what it does next.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

They have space and it looks clean. Or is it propaganda, to convince more being a POW is not such a bad deal.

 

A real increase in surrenders is how Ukraine wins this war. Russian POWS need to be eating good borscht, and watching soccer games. It seems wrong, but that is the winning play here. 

If I can be forgiven an attack of overwhelming optimism...Russian POWs going back to Russia with memories of relatively positive treatment might be of at least some help with the post war situation, maybe, if the dominoes fell just right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

dipsh1t reporting in Newsweek.  Article is all over the place with no real conclusions but the bit from the Russians about the UA falling into a trap is pretty funny.

Quote

 

Some Russian state media outlets have suggested that the Kursk incursion was a "trap" for Volodymr Zelensky in which Vladimir Putin will ultimately prevail, as speculation mounts over Ukraine's objectives and end game for the daring operation.

Kremlin propagandists have tried to make sense of how Ukraine entered Russia so easily, such as RIA Novosti whose op-ed one week on from the launch of Kyiv's operation said Russian forces were "taking control of the situation." The day before, pro-Kremlin outlet Tsargrad wrote how Ukrainian brigades "fell into a trap" and faced heavy losses.

 

 

Has Zelensky Walked Into Putin's Trap? (msn.com)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A real increase in surrenders is how Ukraine wins this war. Russian POWS need to be eating good borscht, and watching soccer games. It seems wrong, but that is the winning play here. 

If I can be forgiven an attack of overwhelming optimism...Russian POWs going back to Russia with memories of relatively positive treatment might be of at least some help with the post war situation, maybe, if the dominoes fell just right.

Meanwhile on the other side...
 

Its disturbing that such mutilation of AFU soldiers has become so common. Honestly f*ck these bastards. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...