How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Is scorched earth a legitimate tactic before you withdraw? This is what I would do if I was the Ukrainian army. Give my engineers something to do. 

I'm pretty sure it is a legal gray area to destroy official political facilities (e.g. town hall, not state run schools, hospitals, etc.) because there is a good case to make that they are directly tied into the war.  Recruiting people and paying them to fight in Ukraine, for example.  Civilian infrastructure, such as roads, rail, and anything transport related is in a gray area, though only technically because military use is pretty easily proven.  Fuel facilities might fit into that too, but a little less clear about the gas pipeline into Ukraine.

Not that this matters.  As long as Ukraine isn't putting demo charges on schools, apartment buildings, and cultural assets I don't think anybody will say anything about the rest of it.  Russia doesn't deserve to be given benefit of the doubt.

Steve

[Carolus]

Upload that scammer rootkit which locks your PC on every machine and make the Russians donate to Ukrainian organisations if they want to get their lewd dancing bear pictures back.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

TBH this seems like the kind of video I would disseminate as propaganda if I was Ukraine.

Of course it is even more effective propaganda if the video itself is real. The guys face is in it clear as day, it ought to be verifiable one way or another. In fact he is so recognizable that he ought to be asking for Ukrainian residency regardless. The FSB might take a dim view of his performance/rant.

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Upload that scammer rootkit which locks your PC on every machine and make the Russians donate to Ukrainian organisations if they want to get their lewd dancing bear pictures back.

Better yet to upload it to RU infrastructure servers. 

[sburke]

54 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Other than destroying anything vaguely like military equipment, they would be better off stealing (or krazy gluing stuck) the keys on every keyboard needed to type "Putin".  And maybe leave a bunch of "Zelenskyy was here" stickers on things.

nah, just smash all the toilets and washing machines.  Then leave an ad for a special back to school sale for the same.. in Kiev.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

nah, just smash all the toilets and washing machines.  Then leave an ad for a special back to school sale for the same.. in Kiev.

As much fun as that would be, Ukraine is better off taking the high road on anything clearly civilian. Honestly just starting this rumor about a referendum is probably the most effective thing they could have possibly done. I mean obviously they will wreck the fuel infrastructure, the railroads, and any bridge they have have time to rig on the way out. Oh, and the FSB offices and such. Otherwise I think it would be far more effective to leave some carefully done leaflets in Russian, and maybe USB keys that let them access the internet outside of Russia, if that is possible. 

[Grigb]

I will put map later (do not expect much). For now just my observations. 

The main observation is there is no reliable description of any sorts of fights. There are mostly epic tales about ex Wagnerite shpetznazer Huilov who kills khokhol untermehs with his own farts. But there are no videos/photos or even simple reliable descriptions of any battles except relatively small clashes in very few places.

It looks like there is no much of fighting except for some platoon clashes at Korenevo and along the road between Sudzha and Bolshoe Soldatskoe (North East road toward Kursk and Power Plant). 

Second, observation or rather feeling that RU command has no idea where UKR troops are and what is going on at all. They said usual eyes (quadrocopter observation drones) cannot be used [to search for enemy] due to UKR jamming. So, the have to rely on airplane type drones [which is always in short supply]. Also, the same post mentions that RU comms are jammed as well. Looks like RU forces are blind, def and mute.

Third, observation, RU brains are too focused on settlements. If they cannot observe enemy in settlement then they think there are no enemy around, scared khokhols are far away, stop panicking, it was UKR recon and sabotage groups while simultaneously admitting that UKR recon and sabotage groups are actually motorized infantry platoons and sometime even companies.

Quote

Due to the reserves that came up, "Aida", musicians from the Ratibor group, and "Tag", it was possible to localize the enemy's combat reconnaissance patrols, which were operating on Kursk land consisting of full-blooded NATO-style motorized infantry companies.

So, I am repeating - optimistic estimate of UKR advance is where UKR forward motorized units are. Conservative estimate is where RU spotted UKR static positions.  

[FancyCat]

Quote

A self-propelled howitzer resembling Polish-made AHS Krab in service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine spotted 8km north of the town of Sudzha in Kursk Oblast, 10km deep into the Russian territory. 51.2725000, 35.2541667 The vehicle was targeted by Russian ZALA Lancet loitering munition, though the result of the strike cannot be concluded from the footage.

https://t.me/izvestia/181336

I might've been wrong about the AHS Krab. The chassis also looks like more like the one of the Gvozdika.

 

[Grigb]

RU Nats discussing UKR tactics (BTW, most of RU Nats I am quoting are RU military regulars or volunteers). This one is volunteers (he is ex-Rosguardsman)

Quote

The described tactics [platoon/company sized motorized unit blocking and by passing RU points of resistance] do not indicate the decisive action of the enemy's jammers, which followed the first line of attackers. Filatov wrote about it. I was waiting for this post, because watching his activities and the actions of the Bely brigade [Filatov and Bely are that Avdiivka guys I was talking about earlier], it was clear that it was by moving jammers [right] after the stormtroopers that they [Filatov and Bely] were successful in fighting the enemy FPV drones, while also simultaneously keeping reconnaissance drones at bay.

During the enemy offensive in the Kursk region, in addition to jamming drones, [enemy] jammers were primarily used to jam [our] communications equipment. By the way, this was not difficult because communication at the stronghold locations was primarily conducted through Chinese Baofengs and mobile cellphones.

[hcrof]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is so much to see in these two videos:

1. They are deliberately targeting the barrels because that's the critical bit.  Tires, carriages, breach blocks, etc. can all be repaired/replaced fairly easily, but barrels are in limited supply.
2. They have both the time and the opportunity to do this.  I presume because the presence of drones has caused the crews to run away.
3. After FPV #1 has detonated they send FPV #2 in to confirm the barrel has a hole melted in it.  That gives an extremely accurate accounting of the effectiveness of their targeting.
4. If FPV #2 doesn't see a hole, then it makes one.  Presumably FPV #3 goes to see if #2 did the trick.
5. If the follow up FPV sees the hole, then it moves on to attack another target.

All of this is important stuff.  None of it was possible before FPVs.  I'm still amazed by all of this

Steve

The thing that strikes me is the signal quality so close to the ground near a treeline - they must be using a repeater. 

Also, the Russians seems to be clustering their battery together WW2 style. I wonder whether this is a conscript battery in Kursk because I can't imagine any Russians in the Donbass doing that any more!

[Kraft]

The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls

The infantry died in their vehicles. These were among those instructed not to take prisoners.

Likely sent to Rylsk, they died before reaching it.

 

Quote

13 tented military Urals and KAMAZ trucks with infantry. Many dead, some of the vehicles burned to the ground.

It looks like the entire column was carrying infantry. They were armed, most likely a platoon per vehicle. 3-4 companies, an entire battalion was destroyed.

Judging by the appearance of the column, about half were killed. This is one of the bloodiest and most massive strikes (most likely HIMARS) in the entire war.

t.me/arrowsmap/5175

I recommend reading/translating the comments in ru TG chats all that hype&hope yesterday night and this is the overnight result haha

Edited August 9 by Kraft

[chuckdyke]

Few post back there was a consensus of some sort that maneuver warfare was no longer practicable. This is one hell of a raid. 

[dan/california]

56 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I will put map later (do not expect much). For now just my observations. 

The main observation is there is no reliable description of any sorts of fights. There are mostly epic tales about ex Wagnerite shpetznazer Huilov who kills khokhol untermehs with his own farts. But there are no videos/photos or even simple reliable descriptions of any battles except relatively small clashes in very few places.

It looks like there is no much of fighting except for some platoon clashes at Korenevo and along the road between Sudzha and Bolshoe Soldatskoe (North East road toward Kursk and Power Plant). 

Second, observation or rather feeling that RU command has no idea where UKR troops are and what is going on at all. They said usual eyes (quadrocopter observation drones) cannot be used [to search for enemy] due to UKR jamming. So, the have to rely on airplane type drones [which is always in short supply]. Also, the same post mentions that RU comms are jammed as well. Looks like RU forces are blind, def and mute.

Third, observation, RU brains are too focused on settlements. If they cannot observe enemy in settlement then they think there are no enemy around, scared khokhols are far away, stop panicking, it was UKR recon and sabotage groups while simultaneously admitting that UKR recon and sabotage groups are actually motorized infantry platoons and sometime even companies.

So, I am repeating - optimistic estimate of UKR advance is where UKR forward motorized units are. Conservative estimate is where RU spotted UKR static positions.  

 

5 minutes ago, Kraft said:

The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls

The infantry died in their vehicles. These were among those instructed not to take prisoners.

Likely send to Rylsk, they died before reaching it.

 

 

The Russians may not be doing much fighting, but dying and surrendering both seem to be happening in some quantity. The Russians seem to be completely dislocated, at least for now. How long before they get organized, and some EW countermeasures worked out?

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Few post back there was a consensus of some sort that maneuver warfare was no longer practicable. This is one hell of a raid. 

Armored Top Hat wins a round...

Edit: Of course great deal of what is happening comes down to Ukraine gaining at least temporary superiority in the drone battle. As we have speculated a number of times, the side whose bubble collapses just gets WRECKED.

Edited August 9 by dan/california

[hcrof]

Interesting point here: Russia has been formally invaded and occupied by another country and has still not declared war!

 

[Letter from Prague]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Armored Top Hat wins a round...

Edit: Of course great deal of what is happening comes down to Ukraine gaining at least temporary superiority in the drone battle. As we have speculated a number of times, the side whose bubble collapses just gets WRECKED.

Also ISR superiority. Ukraine being able to hit column moving their direction tens of kilometers away while Russian still don't know what is going on and which villages are taken? That's a big disparity.

[Grigb]

29 minutes ago, hcrof said:

The thing that strikes me is the signal quality so close to the ground near a treeline - they must be using a repeater. 

Yes. Most likely flying one.

[Kraft]

8 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Interesting point here: Russia has been formally invaded and occupied by another country and has still not declared war!

Weak russian leaders afraid of escalation

[Grigb]

I have an appointment in few minutes. So, I am posting updated map without much explanation but I will be back online in couple of hours. 

This is my interpretation of tea leaves Yandex Maps RU traffic - but we do not have much of reliable info from other sources. So take it with the grain of salt. 

• Black denotes where most of RU traffic disappears
• White denotes suspicious absence of traffic
• No lines - no traffic but it is not necessarily suspicious

 

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls

The infantry died in their vehicles. These were among those instructed not to take prisoners.

Likely sent to Rylsk, they died before reaching it.

 

I recommend reading/translating the comments in ru TG chats all that hype&hope yesterday night and this is the overnight result haha

It's the kind of the I imagine the Ukraine military would have been praying for: Russia rushing troops in to counter the attack with no clear idea of where the 'front line' is (not that there is a well defined one), and Ukraine being able to catch the reinforcements unprepared on the march. It's then a double whammy of not only attriting the enemy, but making them slow down their response and approach more cautiously to avoid a repeat performance.

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, acrashb said:

As is widely noted, this is the first time since WWII that foreign troops have invaded Russia.

Note that these displaced Russians are making a direct appeal to the Czar (if the translation is accurate), per Russian tradition.  What happens when he can't respond?

Nothing; it's one-way communication by default. Appeal may be repeated and Putin scorn some local officials; but it's XXIst century, so top usually reacts in some way. Note that almost all similar events from Kursk so far are not blaming Putin directly but governer or somebody else. It's also true to centuries-long form.

BTW. lady in shirt "I am not Sorry" is indeed so ironic. Young one also suggest to stop appeal before somebody say too much. Maybe Russians should parachute some FSB to Suzha to calm down locals?

Edited August 9 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

UKR comms and EW specialist Flash

Quote

My UAV monitoring points in the Sumy region are silent. I checked it with the AFU monitoring systems. The same.

Conclusion: the enemy does not have an infinite resource of winged scouts [airplane type long range drones]. Despite all their laudatory claims. And now they have thrown everything that was in the area to the Kursk region, of course.

And this chain of events is all connected, while their wings are occupied in the Kursk region, our rear is working without the supervision of the enemy (who got everyone pissed of with his UAVs) and without potential Iskanders [strikes]. Everything that happens is not in vain.

As I said  wonder OTH Iskanders strikes against mobile targets mostly rely on long range drones. These airplane type drones is RU magic operational eyes. 

No drones, no strikes (unless you are lazy and stay in one place for too long for RU loyal locals to pass info on you)

Edited August 9 by Grigb

[Maciej Zwolinski]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

nah, just smash all the toilets 

Both of them? That would be cruel

[hcrof]

36 minutes ago, Grigb said:

UKR comms and EW specialist Flash

As I said  wonder OTH Iskanders strikes against mobile targets mostly rely on long range drones. These airplane type drones is RU magic operational eyes. 

No drones, no strikes (unless you are lazy and stay in one place for too long for RU loyal locals to pass info on you)

I am inclined to agree that Russia is over reliant on drones for ISR. NATO has a deeply redundant system of satellites, aircraft, radar, drones, recce troops etc but Russia has to rely on more irregular satellite updates, a more limited number and quality of radar systems and few professional recce specialists but drones are the lynchpin. 

That's ok in static warfare but when things go mobile and the drones are knocked out, the russian ISR picture can potentially be very blind. 

In this case it looks like Russia is just throwing bodies at the problem, presumably blocking all major roads surrounding the inclusion area to prevent it from expanding but they don't seem to be doing a good job of effectively counter attacking at all. 

Edit: the pre war Russian army was probably better at non-drone ISR but it looks to me like they have followed the path of least resistance by over-relying on drones. Ukraine would be doing it too if it didn't have access to all that nice western ISR and donated gear. Western forces are not taking advantage of drones enough but are saved by the fact that their traditional ISR is the best in the world. 

Edited August 9 by hcrof

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, Kraft said:

The russian column from yesterday met Himars cluster dungsten balls

I am all in favour of using those on the Russians, although they are sensitive on two accounts: one, as cluster munitions, second, as biological weapons.