How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

 

[FancyCat]

How legit is bild? German news. They have a article on Germany and U.S threatening Ukraine over the use of Western air defense but I don’t wanna post clickbait or false news.

[zinz]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

How legit is bild? German news. They have a article on Germany and U.S threatening Ukraine over the use of Western air defense but I don’t wanna post clickbait or false news.

It's Bild. Sure it's some kind of clockbait. But that doesn't mean that the story isn't correct. 

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

How legit is bild? German news. They have a article on Germany and U.S threatening Ukraine over the use of Western air defense but I don’t wanna post clickbait or false news.

It's roughly the equivalent of the British Sun, mostly yellow Press.

The coverage of Ukraine has been much better than their usual "journalistic work", but still, they would happily invent or exagerate something for clickbait.  

I would not consider it trustworthy unless corroborated by other sources.

[mosuri]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ministers-outrageous-hungary-blocks-military-aid-arms-ukraine/

How about a Huxit, both from EU and NATO? What do we need these bothersome kremlinites for anyway?

[Letter from Prague]

They will never leave EU because then the gravy train stops. NATO, maybe.

[danfrodo]

Seems like a good news day so far.  High RU losses reported, and UKR loss reports have been shown to match up reasonably well with other counts, though somewhat higher.  Plus 58 F16s now will be 85?  I am really interested how these will be used.  With the beating RU AD has been taking maybe this will make a real difference.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Seems like a good news day so far.  High RU losses reported, and UKR loss reports have been shown to match up reasonably well with other counts, though somewhat higher.  Plus 58 F16s now will be 85?  I am really interested how these will be used.  With the beating RU AD has been taking maybe this will make a real difference.

Careful.  F-16s are no more of a magic bullet than the M1s/Challies/Leo2s. And they die a lot more visibly.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

How legit is bild? German news. They have a article on Germany and U.S threatening Ukraine over the use of Western air defense but I don’t wanna post clickbait or false news.

In this case I think, Bild like a broken clock, which shows true time twice for a day. 

Probably you are about this (in Ukrainian retelling):

When Ukraine used Patriot missiles agains Russian flight order as far as on 13th of May 2023 in Bryansk oblast and shot down two EW Mi-8, Su-34 and Su-35, Berlin and Washington were angry. They threaten to stop supply if this repeat. Unbelievable, but this explains a lot. This is proves one more, how wrong decisions making in western capitals prolongs this war. Russia is vulnerable, it can be defeated, but they don't allow Ukraine to give proper repulse, so Russian bombs still hit Ukrainian malls and kindergardens.    

Looks like this is true, because since this attack there wasn't any similar successes. Ukrainian General Staff didn't recognize this success neither there not now, though AD battalion command vehicle, which unit conducted this attack has markings of these aircrafts. 

And here some more:

NATO is discussing participation in sky guarding over western Ukraine, Bild reports. 

This idea supports Estonia, UK, Poland, Canada, Lithuania, France

Against: USA and Germany

 

We have a joke: any US statement now starts with words: US concerning about... , US afraids that... , US considrers it premature..., US do not support. 

Putin made serious mistake. To restore influence of Russia in the world like USSR, he had to attack NATO directly through Baltic states. Spineless western democracies would drown in endless discuissions and offers "immediately to listen other side to achieve compromisses" when Russian tanks rolled further west. 

It's good the West is gradually healing itself from own phobias. But the remedy is prohibitely expensive - the blood of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. And we are paying it cost  

Edited May 28 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

F-16s are no more of a magic bullet than the M1s/Challies/Leo2s

Every person fighting counts, and Western equipment by all accounts ensure more people survive than ex-Soviet equipment. If it's a war of attrition, Ukraine cannot afford to lose its personnel. 

Even if Tartus is not given, I think the allowance for the use of Western artillery in Russia would be useful. 

Quote

Scholz is not explicit in the way Macron is, but he, too, seems to endorse the use of Western weapons in Russia, emphasizing international law and Ukraine's need to defend itself.

 

[FancyCat]

Macron might have cornered Scholz admittedly. 

Same press conference together, 

Quote

Ukraine should be allowed to "neutralize" Russian military bases from where Moscow is firing missiles, says France's President Emmanuel Macron.

Quote

At a press conference, Chancellor Olaf Scholz states that Ukraine may very well defend itself on Russian territory. Although it is a “different question” what happens if this is being done with Western provided weapons (also with German ones), however, there are agreements that this must take place within the framework of international law. To me, it sounds like he is indicating that he would accept Ukraine striking on Russian soil with German-delivered weapon systems. Interesting statement. Up to now, Scholz has repeatedly emphasised that Ukraine may only defend itself on its own territory with the weapons supplied by Germany — most recently two days ago during a citizens' dialogue to mark 75 years of the Basic Law. Video credit:

@vonderburchard

/ I just reuploaded the video with enhanced audio.

 

[Haiduk]

First sattelite images of missile strike on Luhansk airfield aftermath. Probably newest "Nebo-M" radar complex was hit. Maybe some more will come later.

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Careful.  F-16s are no more of a magic bullet than the M1s/Challies/Leo2s. And they die a lot more visibly.

actually my post was bait for the learned air force-types to explain how the F16s would be used and make a diff.  I used to think 'so what' on F16s but there's been talk here before of them doing some nice things.  Was hoping to draw out some comments on that.

So y'all, what do you think the F16s will do?

[Letter from Prague]

While no magic bullet, 85 F-16s is actually of a lot of planes. Sweden for which it was said "they will greatly expand NATO air capabilities with their powerful air force" has 71 Gripen. My country has 12. Finland has 50 F-18s and Germany has 140 Eurofighters. Poland has 36 F-16s.

That makes me think 85 new planes can do a lot of work. Of course the other question is how many missiles and bombs do they come with.

[Eddy]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So y'all, what do you think the F16s will do?

I was just going to reply to LLF, but I'll try to answer with a non answer  

It depends. On what radar they have, on what weapons they receive, on the rules of engagement of using those weapons, on how thorough the pilot training has been, on whether they have Link 16 so they can integrate with NATO ISR, on how well the ground crew have been trained, on how may spare parts they've got. And that's just off the top of my head.

I think they have the potential to make a difference but it all depends. At the least I hope they push the VKS back from the behind the front to stop those damn KABs. One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now. 

The one thing I can definitely say is they are no magic bullet.

Edited May 28 by Eddy

[Letter from Prague]

3 minutes ago, Eddy said:

One thing I definitely don't think we will see is close air support. I thinks that as dead as the dodo now. 

I think we have seen ... I dunno ... standoff close air support?

I think both Ukraine and Russia has used glide bombs from a distance to hit tactical targets, tho Ukrainians also strike strategic targets and Russia does terror bombing. And Ukraine seems does it by jury-rigging Western bombs on Sukhois and MiGs so it seems to be worth quite a bit of effort for them.

I don't think the current (months long) Ukrainian campaign against Russian air defence (including the AWACS they shot down) was just for making their refinery targeting drones go further. It makes me think they're betting on the F-16s.

At the very least, it would allow them to keep more safely and effectively doing what they're doing with the planes they currently have, which are probably very much past their shelf life.

[Eddy]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think we have seen ... I dunno ... standoff close air support?

Yeah, I should have been clearer. I was thinking of the 1000ft flying over the target, guns blazing, bomb dropping sort of CAS. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Putin made serious mistake. To restore influence of Russia in the world like USSR, he had to attack NATO directly through Baltic states. Spineless western democracies would drown in endless discuissions and offers "immediately to listen other side to achieve compromisses" when Russian tanks rolled further west. 

While I am absolutely against the decision to withhold targeting permission from Ukraine, the above statement is not likely true.  We've discussed this many times... and outright attack on NATO would not be ignored by the US under normal circumstances (i.e. not Trump).  Some other NATO countries might waffle, but I am very confident that the US would not be one of them (Trump excepted).

This is one of the primary reasons Ukraine didn't get a clear path into NATO years ago.  This war was inevitable and nobody wanted to put NATO cohesion to that test.  Of course this assumes that Russia has no concern about attacking a NATO country.  We've seen plenty of evidence that Putin is very much afraid of attacking NATO.  At least militarily in a direct manner.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think we have seen ... I dunno ... standoff close air support?

I think both Ukraine and Russia has used glide bombs from a distance to hit tactical targets, tho Ukrainians also strike strategic targets and Russia does terror bombing. And Ukraine seems does it by jury-rigging Western bombs on Sukhois and MiGs so it seems to be worth quite a bit of effort for them.

I don't think the current (months long) Ukrainian campaign against Russian air defence (including the AWACS they shot down) was just for making their refinery targeting drones go further. It makes me think they're betting on the F-16s.

At the very least, it would allow them to keep more safely and effectively doing what they're doing with the planes they currently have, which are probably very much past their shelf life.

I think the F-16s will have more of an impact on the fighting than MBTs for sure.

While it would be foolish to think of the F-16 as a "silver bullet", let's remember what a few Patriot and HIMARS systems did in a very short period of time.  The potential of making a noticeable difference is definitely there.

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Putin made serious mistake. To restore influence of Russia in the world like USSR, he had to attack NATO directly through Baltic states. Spineless western democracies would drown in endless discuissions and offers "immediately to listen other side to achieve compromisses" when Russian tanks rolled further west. 

Sentiments like this make we wonder why we are bankrolling this whole thing.  FFS we could have saved ourselves a couple hundred billion and dropped a new Iron Curtain if this is what we can expect from partners.

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Yeah, I should have been clearer. I was thinking of the 1000ft flying over the target, guns blazing, bomb dropping sort of CAS. 

I don’t think this is really a thing anymore either.  Conventional aircraft are all standoff air interdiction or ground strike.  What will be important is how well these F16 can be integrated and what why will/can carry.  I am thinking more flying HIMARs and AD to reinforce denial. I have no idea what air superiority even looks like anymore.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Letter from Prague said:

While no magic bullet, 85 F-16s is actually of a lot of planes. Sweden for which it was said "they will greatly expand NATO air capabilities with their powerful air force" has 71 Gripen. My country has 12. Finland has 50 F-18s and Germany has 140 Eurofighters. Poland has 36 F-16s.

That makes me think 85 new planes can do a lot of work. Of course the other question is how many missiles and bombs do they come with.

And WHICH missiles and bombs...

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

While I am absolutely against the decision to withhold targeting permission from Ukraine, the above statement is not likely true.  We've discussed this many times... and outright attack on NATO would not be ignored by the US under normal circumstances (i.e. not Trump).  Some other NATO countries might waffle, but I am very confident that the US would not be one of them (Trump excepted).

This is one of the primary reasons Ukraine didn't get a clear path into NATO years ago.  This war was inevitable and nobody wanted to put NATO cohesion to that test.  Of course this assumes that Russia has no concern about attacking a NATO country.  We've seen plenty of evidence that Putin is very much afraid of attacking NATO.  At least militarily in a direct manner.

Steve

Concur with this except that should Putin prevail in Ukraine, things won't get much better for Russia or his political prospects. Yes, for a year or two he will bask in triumphalism but the fundamental demographic and strategic weaknesses of Russia will not go away and Putin will have merely whetted the appetite of the extremists in his own camp. 

Attacking NATO would be suicidal...in fact, attacking Poland and Finland alone would be pretty suicidal...but that doesn't mean a sclerotic Putin attempting to retain a grip on power won't do it. This isn't the Cold War and to the Kremlin this isn't a cold war. Sober calculation doesn't rule.

[ASL Veteran]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

actually my post was bait for the learned air force-types to explain how the F16s would be used and make a diff.  I used to think 'so what' on F16s but there's been talk here before of them doing some nice things.  Was hoping to draw out some comments on that.

So y'all, what do you think the F16s will do?

Here's an expert

 

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, billbindc said:

attacking Poland and Finland alone would be pretty suicidal

I am an American and I don't think we'd do well against either of these two, so I could easily see Finns hoisting their flag over Vladivostok while the Poles shake hands with Georgians.

Steve