How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I wouldn't agree that Putin suffers from serious legitimacy crisis, though; there is simply no replacement for him as a leader. He steered biggest country on planet into quagmire he cannot leave, entire hull of this ship is cracking and croaking by chasing this legendary White Whale of multipolar world order, but so far everyone knows there is only one captain on this ship. I mean apart from this clown who took his hat for a moment, but soon was thrown over board like it should be. And the other guide from lowest deck who was bold enough to challange openly, but this issue was done too. Overall, chain of command is known and clear.

The replacement issue cuts several ways. Clearly no consensus pick worth the risk to the boyars has arisen to challenge Putin. But at the same time, Putin has not been able to launch any real sort of purge against the elements of the state that with varying degrees of passivity watched Prigozhin's cooption of and near takeover of the security and military apparat. Zolotov still sits atop the Rosgvardiya despite ample evidence that he knew what was coming and did not order his troops to intervene. The GRU/FSB/MIC and state officials who were similarly aware are still happily in place. Zolotov even got Wagner's heavy weapons. Dyumin continues to run the Tula government.  

This is one of those cases where application of a Western standard does lead us to a bad conclusion. We think 'well, he did make a lot of people vote for him and he did face down a rebellion so he must have legitimacy' and it's just not true. It's especially not true in a very specific to Russia way a la 1905 to 1917. We possibly just haven't seen the second act yet. 

[omae2]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Hmm I never subscribed to this vengeful nonsense either, if only for its massive simplifications (you definitelly have people of great civil courage there like Kara Mourza or, more controversially, Navalny himself; a pitty so few of them). But on other side that doesn't mean we should look at the world through pink glassess and project on Russia our own expectations how authoritarian system should look like (like folks still waiting Muscovia magicaly falling apart into ethnic pieces). This picture is often created by mediation of liberal Russian emigrees, who mostly try to avoid difficult issues, stick to safe topics like corruption and their conclusion is usually that Russians are just fooled victims of bad old dictator- which was btw. Navalny's greatest sin. Self-pitty is their driver here, not empathy, and that is why so many Ukrainians are pissed on them for.

As I understand their reactions, they are already sensing return of comfortable, relativistic narration "not us, it was Putin's fault" that West fell pray to so many times in history. While in reality it's Russians' long-lasting, deep-rooted mix of collective passivity, brutal domestic culture and historically- proven shauvinism that let them here; Putin is their creation, responsibility and lot. Note it is neither still not North Korea level of control; Russians are not cut off from information like Koreans and have basically unobstructed freedom of movement both internally and abroad.

Practically, we have no means of determining what Russia would look like within softer regime; it was political fiction long time before this conflict started. Important questions now are: how it's economy will hold in this, likely few additional years long war; If it will not hold well, what political and military means Kremlin is ready to apply; Will Europe have guts to supply UA through this period, especially when US fall out, and what would be our reactions to potentiall turmoil in RU (judging by our reactions to Prig's coup, not very proactive, but this attitude may change in time).

I have some issues with what you say while i agree with most of it.

 

I dont think that putin is as is it is today is a creation of the russians. What happens today is rest on the shoulders of western leaders that was totally out of touch with reality. They grew accustom to safety and lack of violence in politic. Merkel is one of he main figure that i think is guilty and i dont think that she per say a bad person, but she was a naive politican that didnt realize what situation shes creating. All putin does is ride the wave, he never had enough power to force the EU and USA to made the mistakes that they made, he just exploited them. And of course thats going to be popular with the russians. Now i am biased. I hate russians, i hate them because i saw their propaganda that lead up to this mess and thinking, that they bought it just make me feel disgust. But thats not the right reaction. They did what they think they must do and they will do it until they proven wrong. What we seeing is a collective madness of sort. They will push as hard as they can, i dont think that there is a chance that we will avoid an armed conflict with the russians. And as far the war going the western powers in the last two years made decisions that enforce that idea in me. Now Macron said his things, but i dont know if he means it. Which he should cause hes right. Russia is a hostile nation to NATO, the whole nation, we should treat it like that. They have one goal and that goal is to break western hegemony. The chinese have the same interest but they are much more patient than the russians, and dont like to risk that much.

The main point is that we should act while we have the upper hand. We didnt do that in the last ten years, and reason for that is not just economic its sheer cowardliness. Our leaders simply didnt wanted to play a game where the stakes are that high. They liked simple answers to the problems they facing that lead us to a Europe that looks vulnerable and weak. That is totally on them, they made us look weak, that provoked the push from the other participant of global politic.

So, i dont judge the russian mentality per say as they realize what is their interest in the current global politic, the reason why i hate them because of the sheer stupidity and shortsightness as they try to achieve it. I fairly confident that we as NATO should consider that we gonna be at war with russia very soon. There is a chance that this will blow over to other nations. But this is still better than what will happen if we dont take the glove that was slapped into our face. They will push us until we are in a corner. Their is no way out of this now, because we showed weakness that set things in motion and now they cannot simply back down. We should put behind us this method of thinking, like thinking in a way that we are in a movie. This political pr stunts like those who oppose putin should vote at 12:00. Like who gives a f..k:? This is the type of out of this world thinking that lead us to here, these metaphorical poetic BS. Peoples dying because of this. They getting maimed, their home destroyed. Its disgusting. Practical thinking is the only way to minimize our losses.

[dan/california]

Some excellent stuff fro Dmitri as always.

[dan/california]

Apparently bigger booms are better. Someone might want to run up some detonators that you don'y have to light with a cigarette lighter though.

[Centurian52]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely this.  It's always very difficult to draw the distinction where the line is drawn between accountability and excuse for actions, be it personal or societal.  We all struggle with this all the time, even in our personal lives. 

You see someone laying into a retail clerk and you think "boy, what a prick!" then you find out that his wife had just been murdered that morning and you think "oh, well... that's different".  Someone who was raised in a drug addicted household becomes a drug addict, someone else does not.  How do you judge someone for simply not being strong enough to keep themselves from not beating the odds and the other for doing so?

This is a conversation I've had with my dad (he's a philosophy professor). When is it fair to blame someone for their actions, vs when do the circumstances around the action (mental health, broken home, etc...) add up to the point where it is no longer fair to blame someone? My father considers himself a pragmatist, so it should come as no surprise that his answer is that you should direct moral blame against someone when it works. His view is that the purpose of moral blame is to change a person's behavior. Humans are generally social creatures, so having a bunch of other humans telling them that they shouldn't do a thing should generally make them less likely to do that thing again in the future. Healthy humans are usually very uncomfortable with a bunch of other humans strongly disapproving of their actions.

He uses a thermostat as an example. If the room is too cold, you adjust the thermostat. If the thermostat is broken, then adjusting it won't work. So there is no point in trying to adjust it. If someone does something that we think they shouldn't do, we leverage moral blame to get them to stop doing it (and to deter other people from doing it in the first place). But if a person's brain is broken to the point that moral blame is no longer effective at getting them to stop doing the thing they shouldn't do, then there is no point in blaming them for doing that thing (I believe our discussion at the time was mainly about mental health).

So, when do the circumstances around an action add up to the point that it's no longer fair to blame a person for their actions? According to my father, it's when the circumstances around the action add up to the point that no amount of moral blame will be effective in deterring someone from doing that thing again under similar circumstances.

So, by this logic, can we blame the population of a country for their actions? Maybe? I think there is some precedent for aggressive ad campaigns saying "you shouldn't do the thing!" getting the population of a country to do a thing at lower rates. I doubt there's much we can do to change the behavior of the Russian population, simply because I don't think western media has enough penetration into Russian society. In any case, moral blame is certainly a much fuzzier concept for populations than it is for individual people.

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

This is a conversation I've had with my dad (he's a philosophy professor). When is it fair to blame someone for their actions, vs when do the circumstances around the action (mental health, broken home, etc...) add up to the point where it is no longer fair to blame someone? My father considers himself a pragmatist, so it should come as no surprise that his answer is that you should direct moral blame against someone when it works. His view is that the purpose of moral blame is to change a person's behavior. Humans are generally social creatures, so having a bunch of other humans telling them that they shouldn't do a thing should generally make them less likely to do that thing again in the future. Healthy humans are usually very uncomfortable with a bunch of other humans strongly disapproving of their actions.

He uses a thermostat as an example. If the room is too cold, you adjust the thermostat. If the thermostat is broken, then adjusting it won't work. So there is no point in trying to adjust it. If someone does something that we think they shouldn't do, we leverage moral blame to get them to stop doing it (and to deter other people from doing it in the first place). But if a person's brain is broken to the point that moral blame is no longer effective at getting them to stop doing the thing they shouldn't do, then there is no point in blaming them for doing that thing (I believe our discussion at the time was mainly about mental health).

So, when do the circumstances around an action add up to the point that it's no longer fair to blame a person for their actions? According to my father, it's when the circumstances around the action add up to the point that no amount of moral blame will be effective in deterring someone from doing that thing again under similar circumstances.

So, by this logic, can we blame the population of a country for their actions? Maybe? I think there is some precedent for aggressive ad campaigns saying "you shouldn't do the thing!" getting the population of a country to do a thing at lower rates. I doubt there's much we can do to change the behavior of the Russian population, simply because I don't think western media has enough penetration into Russian society. In any case, moral blame is certainly a much fuzzier concept for populations than it is for individual people.

Your father and I both subscribe to the "that ship has sailed" way of thinking.  Someone with a mental illness that goes out and kills someone gets my sympathy for being defective, but that is outweighed by my outrage for the pain that defect causes to victims and society generally.  Is society to blame for letting that person be mentally ill and free to cause harm?  Possibly, possibly not.  But that's pretty much a policy issue and not a case issue.

One reason I'm of this mindset is because most bad deeds are done by people that have some form of mental illness.  Sure, one off accidents and circumstances can lead to negative results, but those are exceptions rather than rules.  When applied to Russia's population, on the whole they are (by Western definitions) mentally ill.  At best the people suffer from "battered woman syndrome", so they have my sympathies about as much as a wife that helps her abusive husband dismember his former lover that he just murdered (which is a real thing, BTW).

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

Actually the very way Putin has failed points out how valuable it would be to push the transition harder. Think about what would happen to world oil markets if U.S. oil consumption went down by even 25%. The tech to make that happen EXISTS, all we have to is incentivize its adoption a little more. And when we do all of our enemies except China go broke spectacularly.

I am not saying shale has been a bad thing, the guy quoted above is right about what has happened in the last ten years. But a gallon/thousand BTUs you don't burn is just as much help as one drilled out of Texas. 

Except that Russia's (rather, Siberia's) share of global metals needed to achieve the carbon transition is roughly comparable to its share of hydrocarbons.

...Unless you believe in stuff like deep sea mining, or take a giant hit off the Green Hydrogen bong.

But we're at risk for drifting OT. None of this is going to show up in time to change the outcome of the current war.

My other comment is that oil and LNG are both likely to be comparatively cheap for the next few years [I'm in the business, so I should know better than to say things like that, of course lol].

For example, Japan and Korea, traditional 'price takers' are both now looking to resell huge amounts of surplus LNG they contracted for, likely into Southeast Asia, if necessary subsidising the new power plants that will burn it.

None of this is great news for the planet, but not great for Putin either, plus the Chinese have got him by his undersized ntz at this point.

P.S. If you haven't read Daniel Yergin's 'The Prize', it is well worth it.

Edited March 20 by LongLeftFlank

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182?i=1000649882050

A truly excellent interview today with a former member of the Ukrainian special forces that is a Ukrainian MP, and a primary liaison between the military and political sides. His three main points won't surprise anybody here, but he certainly makes them forcefully and convincingly.

1) Drones dominate the battle field.

2) Ukraines training standards, infrastructure, and everything related to both of these need to be massively improved.

3) Last but most certainly not least, Western support needs to get unbleeped as quickly as humanly possible.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Centurian52 said:

So, by this logic, can we blame the population of a country for their actions?

Here is a post of Aleksandr Nevzorov - famous Russian journalist of "perestroyka" and early Yeltsyn's time.

"Protestniks", demoralized by result continue liсe's movements. They poke arouns in "violation on polling stations", "ballots throwings", "rights violation". The squeaks about "not properly sealed ballot boxes" sound espacially funny. But it doesn't matter anymore. It's all acomplished. 

"Results" were announced brazely and categorically. The regime is confident in own full  impunity, in own right to draw any digits and wipe own feet on indignant faces. 

Сan we consider 87 % result as true? We can. It's no matter how "vote and count". It's only matter how the people accept announced digits. But they were accepted resignedly. 

Threre are neither barricades, nor tires. City halls don't burn. The regime buttons his pants. Sucked Russia gratefully swallows and licks her lips. 

The time is coming to get rid of last illusions. 18th of March 2024 is a wonderful day to sober up and dispel a beautiful haze about Russian "people" [in means "nation"]. Yes, there is pathetic million, who still sane. But it doesn't "makes a weather" and in nearest time either will reformate itself, or will die. Today we have unique opportunity to burry this stupid myth. Only on his grave we can think about "what next"

      

 

Edited March 20 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Unrelevant Russian TG writes on Engels-2 airfield in result of UKR strike slightly damaged two Tu-95 strategic bombers and four servicemen of airfield personnel were killed. This TG often considered in Ukriane as our PsyOps in Russian informatin space, so let it be, until satellite images appear. 

Though, locals write there wer four explosions - allegedly three drones were shot down, but fourth hit airfield and they have seen that something burnt on the territory of airbase.

[Haiduk]

Ghana is new source of merceneries for Russia. There are rumors - France so actively now strive to help us even to sending troops, because secret agreement exists between France and Ukraine, that after Ukrainian victory we will help to expel Russians from French-interest zones of Africa. In last years France lost influence and was really pushed off from many of countries by Russia and China. 

 

Edited March 20 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russia is finishing works on building of new military port in Ochamchira - in Abkhazia (oocupied part of Georgia)

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ghana is new source of merceneries for Russia. There are rumors - France so actively now strive to help us even to sending troops, because secret agreement exists between France and Ukraine, that after Ukrainian victory we will help to expel Russians from French-interest zones of Africa. In last years France lost influence and was really pushed off from many of countries by Russia and China. 

 

Hard to spend the money when you are a corpseicle(TM)

[Haiduk]

Four recon planes simultainously over Black Sea were today. Maybe we will see something interesting soon...

[Haiduk]

It's a new form of baseball? %) 

 

[Haiduk]

Czech Republic already supplied 300 000 artillery shells. This claimed Yan Lipavsky, minister of foreign afafirs of this country.

In own turn Ukrainian representatives says this number will allow to close sharp deficite for next month and we hope further supplies will grow up. Ukraine now produce 122 mm and 152 mm ammunition and from second half of 2024 will launch produce of 155 mm shells

Also WSJ claimed Ukraine month ago launched serial production of unnamed missile with 400 miles range. 

 

[Vet 0369]

On 3/16/2024 at 7:09 PM, Baneman said:

Although they then have to admit/prove that it's Ukrainian and not a "smoking accident".

Surely nets will simply drive the USV's to have a terminal underwater phase ?

The classic is the Japanese Midway wargames where the Opposing force hid their carriers nearby ( IIRC it was even almost exactly where irl the American carriers were positioned ) and thrashed the attacking force.

That was deemed impossible, the opfor guys were chastised and it was replayed for the Japanese "win".
And then in reality ... 

As I implied before, it was another case of conformational bias. The Japanese Command considered everyone who was not them to be inferior and didn’t believe that the “Gaijin” or barbarians, could possibly outsmart the superior intellect of the Imperial High Command. Unfortunately, virtually ALL of the nations involved in war think exactly the same thing. It is amazing that after millenniums of warfare, Military Commanders continue to make the mistake of underestimating their opponent.

And that same racism continues to this day by and of virtually every culture in the world.

Also, the fact that the Imperial Navy Codes were broken much earlier and allowed the USN to spoof the Japanese Imperial Navy to inadvertently reveal the target was Midway, and the disposition of their forces. All because of the High Command believing that the code was unbreakable. I don’t know how “accurate” it was, but a best friend of my Father’s, who was Navy radio communications in the Pacific during the war, told me that the code was based on a dial telephone key dial (not necessarily a dial in English, but one in Japanese Kanji).

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

The replacement issue cuts several ways. Clearly no consensus pick worth the risk to the boyars has arisen to challenge Putin. But at the same time, Putin has not been able to launch any real sort of purge against the elements of the state that with varying degrees of passivity watched Prigozhin's cooption of and near takeover of the security and military apparat.

He didn't launch it, because there was no need to do it while costs could outweight benefits; support for Prig was tepid at very best and passivity of the apparatus very much goes with package of the system Putin himself devised, so he probably didn't expected great and genuine deeds of confidence in him anyway (as clip on eve of the war visibly demonstrated). Also, worth to remember he is not bloodthirsty tyrant, rather KGB guy who has many files in his secret closet with kompromats on all his cooperatives. He  murders only when he is forced to. And Russians appreciate that, as strange as it sounds.

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

Zolotov still sits atop the Rosgvardiya despite ample evidence that he knew what was coming and did not order his troops to intervene. The GRU/FSB/MIC and state officials who were similarly aware are still happily in place. Zolotov even got Wagner's heavy weapons. Dyumin continues to run the Tula government.  

There is a lot of tuth in that, but note many of beforementioned gentlemen could secretely act in accordance with Putin or even being his messangers, who did a lot to extinguish fire caused by sudden march of Wagnerites and negotiate the problem rather than further fuel civil war. Certainly Zolotov could, being rare example of his personal collegue and actual friend. We all were amazed here with the fact that old Prig didn't immediatelly end with his head on Kremlin walls, but that was smarter and more stable solution for Putin himself, I'll give him that. I don't read it as weakness, rather proof that times changed a little and Kremlin currently does not prefer to finish things the old, gorish way. Blood looks bad on Armani suit.

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

This is one of those cases where application of a Western standard does lead us to a bad conclusion. We think 'well, he did make a lot of people vote for him and he did face down a rebellion so he must have legitimacy' and it's just not true. It's especially not true in a very specific to Russia way a la 1905 to 1917. We possibly just haven't seen the second act yet. 

Well, I prefer to exorcise the Ghost of Historical Analogy before it start to scarry people in this thread again, giving us another 10 pages of arguments.  Events could be interpreted that way, but it's very optmistic to be honest and even if true, unlikely to shorten bloodbath in Ukraine. There are no visible cranks in entire system on the scale of 1905 or 1917, not mentioning the fact it is designed very differently, more resiliant to stress (bloody mafias, they were always quite flexible) and working in entirely different geopolitical environment.

Edited March 20 by Beleg85

[Carolus]

And just after this thread's discussion mentioned, once again after many times, how important autonomy or partial autonomy for drones can be, this clip claims to show the operation of a Ukrainian drone with an automatic targeting algorithm which helps against EW on the final approach.

[LongLeftFlank]

43 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ghana is new source of merceneries for Russia. There are rumors - France so actively now strive to help us even to sending troops, because secret agreement exists between France and Ukraine, that after Ukrainian victory we will help to expel Russians from French-interest zones of Africa. In last years France lost influence and was really pushed off from many of countries by Russia and China. 

 

Hmm, maybe offer $10,000 cash bounty for every Slavic Russian head (freshly severed, no frag damage) they bring with them across the lines. Plus a 2 year noncombatant work contract in a Ukrainian defence plant, renewable, with air fare home at the end.

Double for officers (grab their paybook).

[Haiduk]

K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade again in action and makes us happy with own exellent videos. 

Here is a video how K-2 battalion HQ controls and manage process of the battle - 6 of Russian armor moved through Zolotarivka village (Siversk direction) on positions of 1st mech battalon of 54th brigade. Combined operation of mortars and artillery of 54th brigade (participated 120 mm mortar, D-30 howitzer and MT-12 with indirect fire) and FPV team of 118th TD brigade. Russian column was destroyed on AT-mines and arty fire. 5 pieces of armor were immobilized, one tank withdrew and was hit by FPV, but survuived. Disembarked infantry was eliminated by grenade frops from Mavics and by small arms of infantry - total 42 ememy infantrymen

 

Edited March 20 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Yay 

[Haiduk]

UKR Island-class patrol boat was hit by Lancet about 18th of March on Southern Buh river near Mykolaiv. The point is about 45 km from frontline. Damages and crew losses still unknown. As told chief of "Back-and-Alive" Taras Chmut he saw aftermath of Lancet strikes inside some equipment, which were hit - he said explosion of Lancet looks very effective, but inside mostly all not so terrible and if explosion doesn't cuse intensive fire or ignition of ammo, in most case equipmnet can be repaired. 

 

 

Edited March 20 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade again in action and makes us happy with own exellent videos. 

Here is a video how K-2 battalion HQ controls and manage process of the battle - 6 of Russian armor moved through Zolotarivka village (Siversk direction) on positions of 1st mech battalon of 54th brigade. Combined operation of mortars and artillery of 54th brigade (participated 120 mm mortar, D-30 howitzer and MT-12 with indirect fire) and FPV team of 118th TD brigade. Russian column was destroyed on AT-mines and arty fire. 5 pieces of armor were immobilized, one tank withdrew and was hit by FPV, but survuived. Disembarked infantry was eliminated by grenade frops from Mavics and by small arms of infantry - total 42 ememy infantrymen

Very interesting video, showing how such CIC can work in field conditions. Still a lot of work seem to be done by mines (some are said to be placed by ground drones overnight, which are normally rather rare sight). Also amazing anti-tank guns are still effectively used on the frontlines.

[Haiduk]

RVC assaults the house in Kozinka, Belgorod oblast, occupied by Russians soldiers. The house got several FPVs, mortar, RPG and RShG hits and starts to burn. In this time small reinforcemet arrived to Russians on the car or ATV (video switch to thermal camera of the drone and picture is not so clear) and this vehcile gets in the ambush

According to Russian milbloggers, Kozinka turned out into grey zone arena of small groups hunting each on other. From Russian side mostly involved for these tasks groups of 2nd Spetsnaz brigade and Rosgvardiya. Also Russian aviation with no mercy bombs all contested villages (own villages) with KABs, so villages mostly got sever damages. 

In own turn Russia has rised terror of border areas of Sumy oblast - dozens of atrillery shellings and KABs gradually turning out UKR border villages and towns in ruines  

 

Edited March 20 by Haiduk