How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BeondTheGrave]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, the French bistro is derived from the Russian for 'hurry up!' (aka 'schnell!') which the Russians occupying Paris after Napoleon used to shout at the waiters....

Well if you really insist.....

In a fun mirror to your 'bistro' story, according to legend when General Pavel Stroganov and the Russian Army occupied Paris in 1814, he wanted to get some of his home cooked food. He was used to this kind of beef braised in cream with a hearty brown sauce. He showed several local cooks how it was made, who then, after he left, Franocfied the dish by adding sour cream and other goodies. We know the dish today by its Anglicized spelling, Beef Stroganoff. One of my favorites. 

I would have loved to be a culinary historian instead of a military one. But I figured it was hard enough to get people to pay me to go around working on something important, I'd never get paid to go around eating pizza. 

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What tha wha?  This looked like an assessment from last week when I first saw it.  This is only accurate if it is a representation of Russian battlefield fantasy, but as an assessment of what is actually going on it seems to be quite out of step with reality.

First point -> it is very difficult to reorganize for "large-scale offensive operations" if you are spending your time digging in and getting your LOCs cut off.

Second point -> the northern pincer of this big envelopment hasn't moved in weeks.  Mostly because every time it tries to the Ukrainians give the Russians yet another bloody nose.  As for coming up from Mariupol, with so much of their combat forces being ground down taking the city they have a ways to go before they can try to move north again.

Third point -> it's apparent Russia has given up any hope of moving towards Odessa.  From recent days' combat Russia looks to be more concerned about keeping Kherson than it is bypassing Mykolaiv.

No wonder the MSM is not understanding the true picture. 

Steve

So this was from this board on 26 Feb:

"Overall Summary:  As of the first 72 hours of the war, it appears that the Russian military has overestimated its own capabilities and/or the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance and has not likely met the timelines it had set during pre-war planning.  The assessment is that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in the outcome of this war and if Russian forces are not about to take Kyiv and inflict some serious damage to the Ukrainian people's will, their own strategic center of gravity will become more vulnerable. "

That was 2 days into the entire thing.

Since then we have heard a lot of pundits and retired military folks try and wrestle with this whole thing.  I am not surprised formal DOD, MOD assessments are showing what they are to be honest because pretty much from the start of the this war just about everyone has been using macro-quantitative calculus to try and predict/model what has been going on. 

On a CNN video just a few days ago Gen Petraeus was describing the situation in Mariupol and why it matters.   He did a pretty good job describing the drive for a "land-bridge" between Crimea and the Donbas and why the Russians are trying so hard in this area.  Then he slipped right into the old macro-quantitative thinking.  He outlined how once Mariupol was taken it would free up Russian forces to advance north and cut off great swaths of Ukrainian in the East.  I have seen various predictions of Russian "pincer moves" and the like.  This all makes perfect sense if one is applying conventional warfare metrics, all largely based on macro-quantitative calculus of force sizes/ratios and combat power.

What they are missing, and frankly it is not surprising to see it emerge on a wargaming board, is a view through a lens of micro-qualitative calculus; playing CM, in all its versions, has changed the way we see warfare.   All CM veterans see the signs of something different at a micro-level: abandoned vehicles, loss of high value assets, loss of high level commanders, videos of embarrassing Russian cluster-f#cks and evidence of UA successes just about everywhere.  A lot of these metrics are qualitative and when combined with the macro-quantitative they create a very different picture. 

Social media has allowed us to see a macro - micro-qualitative view as well; we can basically upscale our micro-view through very wide sampling.  By doing this, a lot of us have noted that the texture of this war is looking very different.  It is one, for the Russians, of extreme friction caused by the UA approach.  The Russians are fighting in an operational tar pit, the entire battlespace is sticky for them.  Some of this is by their own shortfalls, while in many places it is by design by the defending forces. I do not know who the military master-mind is on the Ukrainian side but he has clearly been reading about Finland, Giap and the Comanches.  The UA has not only stopped the Russian military, they changed the fabric of the battlespace for them.

This thing is not over yet and will likely continue to evolve.  I am not entirely onboard with the Russian collapse scenario, but we are literally a couple key indicators away.

Edited March 23, 2022 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet I still have to quibble with their assessment of the conditions necessary for "stalemate".  A required element for stalemate, very well laid out by ISW, is that both sides are equally capable of checking the others' attempts at changing the dynamic. 

At the tactical level it means that any gains made from local attacks are contained and do not pose any sort of new operational or strategic threat to the other side.  At the operational level it means any gains from cumulative tactical gains do not change the overall operational or strategic picture.  At the strategic level it means that neither side's activities are likely to end the war (it can be more subtle than that, but this is the thing we all focus on).

So in the ol Capt's personal definition of war: a collision of irreconcilable certainties. The concept of a true stalemate is a near impossibility and the history of warfare backs me up on this. 

Let's take Korea. a war still technically ongoing and has been in stasis for nearly 70 years...this a stalemate by design.  At a tactical and operational level, absolutely, everyone sitting on the line looking at each other.  At a strategic level, not at all.  We have seen NK develop nuclear weapons and cyber capability.  SK has deepened it relationships with the West and purchased military capabilities.  At the political level it has been anything but a stalemate as both NK and SK try to outmaneuver each other. 

Pick any great stalemate and you will find it really was not.  WWI Western front, yep tactical and operational, and even in some ways strategic.  But a lot of stuff happening elsewhere, not to mention the slow strangling of Germany that eventually decided the war.  Cold War, nuclear equation created a pretty large stalemate framework but on the "margins" of proxy wars and political warfare, not even close to a stalemate.  As in love, war will find a way.

So what?  Well in Ukraine, as Steve aptly points out the one thing that is not static is time.  Right now, time is not on Russia's side by any stretch.  All those sanctions take time but when they really start to land they are going to hurt, badly.  At a military strategic level, one that cannot access full national mobilization, the steady heavy bleeding is adding up.  The Russian system: 1) cannot win employing what they brought in terms of capability, doctrine or training, 2) cannot change the battlespace to favour what they brought - they should have started with that, and 3) cannot adapt fast enough to start fighting the war they are in, and not the war they wanted. 

A lot of discussion on how badly the Russian war machine is broken.  I argue it is much worse than what we see on the battlefield, their very theories of this war are broken.  Here history backs me up entirely - bring a broken theory to a war means you had better be a very fast learner.  And I am not seeing that quality on the Russian side right now.

I have had this weird thought in my head on this entire war, "where have I seen this before?"  And I am going to recommend anyone really interested to read into the War of 1812 fought in North America.  Read Donald Graves series, starting with the Battle of Chryslers Farm and you will see a lot of the same themes throughout.

Edited March 23, 2022 by The_Capt

[Phantom Captain]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

What they are missing, and frankly it is not surprising to see it emerge on a wargaming board, is a view through a lens of micro-qualitative calculus; playing CM, in all its versions, has changed the way we see warfare.   All CM veterans see the signs of something different at a micro-level: abandoned vehicles, loss of high value assets, loss of high level commanders, videos of embarrassing Russian cluster-f#cks and evidence of UA successes just about everywhere.  A lot of these metrics are qualitative and when combined with the macro-quantitative they create a very different picture. 

Social media has allowed us to see a macro - micro-qualitative view as well; we can basically upscale our micro-view through very wide sampling.  By doing this our view, or a lot of us, have noted that the texture of this war is looking very different.  It is one, for the Russians, of extreme friction caused by the UA approach.  The Russians are fighting in an operational tar pit, the entire battlespace is sticky for them.  Some of this is by their own shortfalls, while in many places it is by design by the defending forces. I do not know who the military master-mind is on the Ukrainian side but he has clearly been reading about Finland, Giap and the Comanches.  The UA has not only stopped the Russian military, they changed the fabric of the battlespace for them.

 

This is a really great explanation of the thinking of our community here and something I have been trying to qualify, in these words, for the past few days.  Thanks for that. 

I really appreciate ALL you guys and what we have here.  

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, DesertFox said:

one more for the list

 

 

So an Odessa assault is functionally cancelled, they get thrown into the buzzsaw that is Mariupol and almost immediately lose their Commander.

Gotta be some good vibes happening with those surfer boys. Gotta be sooooo happy they spent all that time training for Stalingrad like combat.

Oh wait...

[c3k]

15 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Ah, now that I have recovered from busting a gut after that post re: Orville Peck secret identity....

Great stream of (mostly) curated picks from social media. My favourite today is this one by @Haiduk. I find remarkable how good UKR is at using conventional artillery as a stand in for eye wateringly expensive PGM. It looks to me that since UKR had to rebuild its military from scratch, had an opportunity to adopt new ideas and technologies dealing with little or no institutional inertia.

I wonder what the process is for those arty strikes, maybe something like this?

1. Drone controller has UAV loitering on suspected area of RF activity.

2. Controller spots location of RF assets, then registers the location by taking snapshots of target from several points and angles (see this for instance https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0926580518308641)

3. Photos, along with camera parameters and geo location info forwarded to fires coordination center. Firing solution calculated automatically and fire task assigned to friendly asset.

4. Fire task executed, drone controller reports damage assessment.

An iteration over the above wouldn't take very long at all, the most finicky part being that of maneuvering the UAV to take the measurements you need for registration.  And that could be automated too (the controller activates the "registration" behaviour and that's it).

The workflow above could be implemented with very few fancy equipment/algorithms, you just need good software and network engineers using pretty mundane hardware.

--------------

On another topic, I am glad to see tactical psychology being used... the most efficient way to defeat an adversary is to destroy its will to fight. So far UKR has been fighting smart, they just need to keep doing so!

 

The time-sink is in the preparation. Me? I'd create a pinpoint location for each target AND I'd add a correction grid as an overlay around each target. Once that's done, THEN I'd perform the shoot.

If the round misses, just note where on the correction overlay it landed, and you've got a near-instant correction to feed back to the firing element.

At least, that's my amateur opinion on how I'd do it...

I'm sure professional artillerists would find the above to be elementary and they alreadyhave a better system in place.  

 

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree that the MoD should be more conservative than other non-governmental assessments out there.  However, at some point conservatism becomes as much counter factual as optimism. 

I think there's also a political component to what the MoD puts out. The goal right now is to rally countries to put as much diplomatic pressure on Russia as possible, and so they are not interested in saying "The Russian Army is pretty much beaten at this point".

[Haiduk]

Tigr's flip. Chernihiv olblast

The same oblast, but other place. Locals loot Russian supply truck

 

[db_zero]

Watched an interesting interview with General Berger and he said if you put all of this into a computer analysis it would come out as a Russian victory, but computer models cannot accurately predict the human element…

No idea what the end game will be. This war started because of 1 man and will end when that 1 man decides he’s had enough or that 1 man is deposed of , or that 1 man decides to take actions that potentially will end life as we know it on planet earth.

There is a religious element to this war, that is way beyond the scope of this discussion and not appropriate to discuss here, but does seem to play a significant role.

[Kinophile]

Well, 1 man in theory.

But the 10 or so around him also get considered. Still, as long as their dachas are fine, their wife can shop and their mistress stills blows them, they dont really care.

And Russia is a good while away from the elites being truly affected.

 

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Now that's some sick **** that beard guy. Talking about nuking Warsaw like it's a mundane, look what I can do, thing. 

Perhaps a bit strange but I'd actually beat that men to death avec plaisir; why not? Very local special civilian operation. Could go pretty fast too. 

On a more serious note, is this a sign of desperation in some circles?

No, that's literally how Russia TV  has been all the time.

The "let's nuke the West" screaming goes as far as war in Iraq

[Sarjen]

Crazy plot twist by Putin: Unfriendly nations have to pay in Ruble for gas. That would undermine the sanctions and it shows Putin breaking the contracts. The long-term contracts are put up with € or $ as currency. 
The EU will have its gas stop sooner than later. 

[Taranis]

Quote

La Biélorussie expulse la plupart des diplomates ukrainiens de son territoire

« La Biélorussie a décidé de réduire le nombre de diplomates ukrainiens sur son territoire. Cette mesure vise à mettre un terme aux activités non diplomatiques d’un certain nombre de membres du personnel des institutions diplomatiques ukrainiennes », a annoncé mercredi le porte-parole de la diplomatie biélorusse, Anatoli Glaz.

Concrètement, ne resteront à Minsk que l’ambassadeur ukrainien et quatre diplomates, alors que plus de 20 personnes travaillaient à l’ambassade jusque-là. La Biélorussie va également fermer le consulat ukrainien à Brest, dans l’ouest du pays, « en raison de l’absence effective du personnel ». Le pays avait déjà retiré tous ses diplomates d’Ukraine.

« Depuis 2020, la Biélorussie a observé de nombreuses actions inamicales de l’Ukraine visant à la destruction irresponsable des relations interétatiques avec notre pays, des contacts commerciaux et des liens établis de longue date », a justifié M. Glaz. « La situation a atteint un point tel que les autorités ukrainiennes ont commencé à s’ingérer directement et indirectement dans nos affaires intérieures et mis en pause les contacts entre nos Etats. Dès 2021, elles ont qualifié la Biélorussie de pays ennemi », a-t-il dit.

Cette ex-république soviétique dirigée d’une main de fer depuis 1994 par Alexandre Loukachenko est la principale alliée de la Russie et sert notamment de base arrière pour les forces de Moscou pour leur offensive dans le nord de l’Ukraine.

Des responsables ukrainiens ont accusé à plusieurs reprises Minsk de se préparer à envoyer ses propres troupes en Ukraine, ce que la Biélorussie dément. Le pays a aussi servi de plateforme pour les deux premières sessions de pourparlers russo-ukrainiens.

Belarus expels most Ukrainian diplomats from its territory
“Belarus has decided to reduce the number of Ukrainian diplomats on its territory. This measure aims to put an end to the non-diplomatic activities of a number of staff members of Ukrainian diplomatic institutions,” Belarusian diplomacy spokesman Anatoli Glaz announced on Wednesday.

Concretely, only the Ukrainian ambassador and four diplomats will remain in Minsk, while more than 20 people worked at the embassy until then. Belarus will also close the Ukrainian consulate in Brest, in the west of the country, “due to the effective absence of staff”. The country had already withdrawn all its diplomats from Ukraine.

“Since 2020, Belarus has observed many unfriendly actions by Ukraine aimed at the irresponsible destruction of interstate relations with our country, trade contacts and long-established ties,” Glaz justified. “The situation has reached such a point that the Ukrainian authorities have started to interfere directly and indirectly in our internal affairs and put a break on contacts between our states. As early as 2021, they called Belarus an enemy country,” he said.

This former Soviet republic, ruled with an iron fist since 1994 by Alexander Lukashenko, is Russia's main ally and serves in particular as a rear base for Moscow's forces for their offensive in northern Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly accused Minsk of preparing to send its own troops to Ukraine, which Belarus denies. The country also served as a platform for the first two rounds of Russian-Ukrainian talks.

Source : Le Monde

[kraze]

45 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So an Odessa assault is functionally cancelled, they get thrown into the buzzsaw that is Mariupol and almost immediately lose their Commander.

Gotta be some good vibes happening with those surfer boys. Gotta be sooooo happy they spent all that time training for Stalingrad like combat.

Oh wait...

They were training to take Reichstag

[Taranis]

Quote

L’OTAN déploie quatre nouveaux groupements tactiques sur son flanc oriental

« Les dirigeants de l’Otan vont décider lors de leur sommet demain de renforcer la posture de défense avec quatre nouveaux groupements tactiques en Bulgarie, en Roumanie, en Hongrie et en Slovaquie, portant à huit les groupements tactiques déployés de la Baltique à la mer Noire », a annoncé mercredi le secrétaire général de l’OTAN, le Norvégien Jens Stoltenberg.

NATO deploys four new battlegroups to its eastern flank
“NATO leaders will decide at their summit tomorrow to strengthen the defense posture with four new battlegroups in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, bringing to eight the battlegroups deployed from the Baltic to the sea Black,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg of Norway announced on Wednesday.
 

Quote

La Pologne expulse 45 diplomates russes pour espionnage

La Pologne expulse « 45 espions russes se faisant passer pour des diplomates », a déclaré mercredi le ministre de l’intérieur polonais, Mariusz Kaminski. « De façon totalement cohérente et déterminée, nous démantelons le réseau des services spéciaux russes dans notre pays », a-t-il précisé sur Twitter.

L’ambassadeur de Russie en Pologne, Sergueï Andreev, interrogé par des journalistes à sa sortie du siège du ministère des affaires étrangères polonais, a confirmé les expulsions, précisant que les personnes concernées devraient quitter la Pologne dans un délai maximal de cinq jours.

Il a affirmé que les accusations d’espionnage à leur égard, présentées en langage diplomatique comme « activités non compatibles avec leur statut diplomatique » étaient « sans fondement », et a annoncé que la Russie se réservait le droit de prendre des mesures de rétorsion. Les relations diplomatiques entre Varsovie et Moscou ne sont pas rompues, a ajouté le diplomate : « Les ambassades restent, les ambassadeurs restent ».

Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats for spying
Poland is expelling “45 Russian spies posing as diplomats,” Polish Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said on Wednesday. "In a completely consistent and determined way, we are dismantling the network of Russian special services in our country," he said on Twitter.

Russian Ambassador to Poland Sergei Andreev, questioned by journalists as he left the headquarters of the Polish Foreign Ministry, confirmed the deportations, specifying that those concerned should leave Poland within a maximum of five days.

He claimed that accusations of espionage against them, presented in diplomatic language as "activities incompatible with their diplomatic status" were "baseless", and announced that Russia reserved the right to take retaliatory measures. Diplomatic relations between Warsaw and Moscow are not broken, added the diplomat: "The embassies remain, the ambassadors remain".

Source : Le Monde

[kraze]

7 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Crazy plot twist by Putin: Unfriendly nations have to pay in Ruble for gas. That would undermine the sanctions and it shows Putin breaking the contracts. The long-term contracts are put up with € or $ as currency. 
The EU will have its gas stop sooner than later. 

Guess he really wants to speed it all up.

 

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Belarus expels most Ukrainian diplomats from its territory
“Belarus has decided to reduce the number of Ukrainian diplomats on its territory. This measure aims to put an end to the non-diplomatic activities of a number of staff members of Ukrainian diplomatic institutions,” Belarusian diplomacy spokesman Anatoli Glaz announced on Wednesday.

Concretely, only the Ukrainian ambassador and four diplomats will remain in Minsk, while more than 20 people worked at the embassy until then. Belarus will also close the Ukrainian consulate in Brest, in the west of the country, “due to the effective absence of staff”. The country had already withdrawn all its diplomats from Ukraine.

“Since 2020, Belarus has observed many unfriendly actions by Ukraine aimed at the irresponsible destruction of interstate relations with our country, trade contacts and long-established ties,” Glaz justified. “The situation has reached such a point that the Ukrainian authorities have started to interfere directly and indirectly in our internal affairs and put a break on contacts between our states. As early as 2021, they called Belarus an enemy country,” he said.

This former Soviet republic, ruled with an iron fist since 1994 by Alexander Lukashenko, is Russia's main ally and serves in particular as a rear base for Moscow's forces for their offensive in northern Ukraine.

Ukrainian officials have repeatedly accused Minsk of preparing to send its own troops to Ukraine, which Belarus denies. The country also served as a platform for the first two rounds of Russian-Ukrainian talks.

Source : Le Monde

Tbh we should've completely severed any diplomatic ties with Belarus as well.

It's an enemy country, which levels our cities and it doesn't matter if their ground troops aren't in the meat grinder yet.

Edited March 23, 2022 by kraze

[Harmon Rabb]

19 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

That is indeed the Russian Embassy at Warsaw, wether that smoke is actually coming from documents being burned, I guess is debatable

If they were burning documents it is likely related to Poland deciding to expel Russian diplomats who are working for Russian intelligence.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-considers-expelling-45-russian-diplomats-official-says-2022-03-23/

Edited March 23, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[db_zero]

I’ve heard that officers and NCOs can no longer leave the army. 

I’m going to guess that conscripts will soon be told their 1 year enlistment will be extended indefinitely, if that hasn’t already happened.

They risk of them returning home if this war continues and them spilling the beans is too great.

Edited March 23, 2022 by db_zero

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Guess he really wants to speed it all up.

 

Tbh we should've completely severed any diplomatic ties with Belarus as well.

It's an enemy country, which levels our cities and it doesn't matter if their ground troops aren't in the meat grinder yet.

Its just posturing. You need comms with Belarus. UKR's issue is with the Belarus elite, not the Belarussians themselves. They share a similar mentality to ****head dictators - but they got stomped on, hard, with direct miltiary force into their capital supporting internal security. UKR didn't.

If/When the Russian invasion starts to properly fail, Belarus will go full Italy and jump ship asap.

So when Lukashenko is racing to his escape plane UKR will need to be able to communicate with the guys chasing him...

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Its just posturing. You need comms with Belarus. UKR's issue is with the Belarus elite, not the Belarussians themselves. They share a similar mentality to ****head dictators - but they got stomped on, hard, with direct miltiary force into their capital supporting internal security. UKR didn't.

If/When the Russian invasion starts to properly fail, Belarus will go full Italy and jump ship asap.

So when Lukashenko is racing to his escape plane UKR will need to be able to communicate with the guys chasing him...

And they need to shoot down that plane. Lukashenko has a bill to pay, I would hate to see him skip town and miss his date with a lamp post.

[Kinophile]

Whatever victory parade Ukraine holds in Kiev MUST included a company of tractors pulling captured RUS vehicles.

It would tie in perfectly into the whole humour/mocking aspect of Ukrainian resistance, which has been deeply inspiring.

[dan/california]

Just to reiterate, a maximum effort to tip Belarus into open revolt is the easiest, cleanest way to win this war. The Russian logistics just evaporate.

[akd]

Boy in zinc:

Quote

At a Young Russian Soldier’s Funeral, Denunciations of ‘Ukrainian Nazis,’ Soviet Dissolution

The Moscow Times attended the funeral of one of the thousands of servicemen believed to have died in Russia’s “special military operation.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/23/at-a-young-russian-soldiers-funeral-denunciations-of-ukrainian-nazis-soviet-dissolution-a77038

[Kinophile]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

And they need to shoot down that plane. Lukashenko has a bill to pay, I would hate to see him skip town and miss his date with a lamp post.

It'll be a Russian plane. Better to let him go and join Yankukovych as in-person reminder to Putin and his friends how much they have failed.

Although, if Lukashenko loses Belarus Putin might easily say FU, Loser.

No love lost there.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Boy in zinc:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/23/at-a-young-russian-soldiers-funeral-denunciations-of-ukrainian-nazis-soviet-dissolution-a77038

Sad story of course, but they describe well under a hundred mourners. Compare it to the Ukrainian funerals with what must be several thousand people lining the road.