How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grossman]

Russia raises interest rates to 15%, citing high inflation, weak rouble ( the Russian economy is in some trouble)

Russia’s central bank raised interest rates by 2 percentage points to 15 per cent on Friday, higher than the 14 per cent analysts had predicted, citing high inflation and the weak rouble as it hiked for the fourth consecutive meeting.

The bank said inflationary pressure had risen “significantly” to outstrip its forecasts, driven by demand for imports and ballooning spending amid western sanctions over president Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia has hiked rates by 7.5 percentage points since July, when the rouble briefly weakened beyond 100 to the dollar.

Policymakers have since taken steps to stabilise the currency after calls from Putin, including ramping up capital controls this month for the first time since the war’s early days last year.

Source FT

[cesmonkey]

The Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets begins his update today with:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1350
 

Quote

Today, in detail about the Avdeevsky defense region

First, a little about the obvious changes in "methodology".

As I expected yesterday, after achieving certain results on its northern face, the enemy has become more active on its southern face and is succeeding in the direction of the village of Vodyane - the village of Tonenkoe.

 

[cesmonkey]

Very interesting, IF true:

- M26 cluster ammunition for HIMARS;

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/120715
 

Quote

Germany provided new aid

to Ukraine It included:
- 1 IRIS-T SLM air defense system;
- Missiles for IRIS-T;
- 1 TRML-4D radar;
- 4 armored personnel carriers (name unknown);
- 4 HX81 tank tractors;
- 4 tank trailers;
- 6 border guard vehicles;
- 8 Vector unmanned aerial vehicles;
- 5 surface drones;
- 4 GO 12 counter-battery radars;
- M26 cluster ammunition for HIMARS;
- 10 thousand protective glasses.

Possibly the scatterable anti-tank mines variation?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System#MLRS

Quote

AT2 German M26 variant carrying 28 AT2 anti-tank mines. Range: 15–38 kilometres (9.3–23.6 mi)

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by cesmonkey

[Tux]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

More likely this guy with his tail singed :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobak_marmot

Good eating among the hill folk.  And you can make a hat out of its fur!

Whelp, that’s it.  We have officially run out of things to talk about.

Looks like a coypu to me.  Maybe part of the softly, softly Dniepr crossing operation?

[chrisl]

18 hours ago, Lethaface said:

think his point was that changing only the (type of) battery doesn't change the theoretical maximum output of the laser. But I guess somewhere the discussion diverged beyond the, for this thread, practical information.

And my point was that the original estimate missed enough key features about how DE works that it wasn't terribly meaningful, and the discussion of energy source is a distraction.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

Looks like a coypu to me.  Maybe part of the softly, softly Dniepr crossing operation?

Aw, now I feel bad.  It is some sort of swamp beaver, just looked it up:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nutria

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Good...Russia should pay to fix what they broke. regardless if they want to do it or not. I always liked the approach of using frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine. As a Western taxpayer I'm more than happy that my money is going to help Ukraine, but Russia should be forced to do the same.

Sorry too funny not to post. Orban looks like the kid at the playground who no one wants to play with.

 

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[akd]

Additional footage of previously-seen failed Russian assault around Avdiivka:

 

[sburke]

21 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good...Russia should pay to fix what they broke. regardless if they want to do it or not. I always liked the approach of using frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine. As a Western taxpayer I'm more than happy that my money is going to help Ukraine, but Russia should be forced to do the same.

This has the added benefit of driving a financial wedge amongst the Russian oligarchy.  They won't be getting their money back and they really will be paying for Putin's war.

[acrashb]

Instead of talking about tasty rodents (best boiled with goldenrod leaves for a bit of flavour):

Russia may have lost another ship, this time a support vessel.  Russia apparently has 43 'mine countermeasure' ships, but only eight in the Black Sea fleet.

If correct, they now have 13% fewer in the Black Sea.
 

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Current US production is around 350,000. Russian production is estimated to be near 2 million

 

[Kinophile]

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Kinophile

[Tux]

27 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Current US production is around 350,000. Russian production is estimated to be near 2 million

 

Wow.  This is a much larger deficit than I had assumed.  I can’t imagine that the US and European countries don’t already have a plan underway to reverse the above ratio over the next year or so, though.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Tux said:

Wow.  This is a much larger deficit than I had assumed.  I can’t imagine that the US and European countries don’t already have a plan underway to reverse the above ratio over the next year or so, though.

We have wasted eighteen months thinking Putin would make a rational deal, and things could get back almost to normal. It might be time to get a proper wartime ammo program underway before my sig becomes an unpleasant bit of prophecy.

Edited October 27, 2023 by dan/california

[Endyamon]

51 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Current US production is around 350,000. Russian production is estimated to be near 2 million

 

I was wondering one thing: Everywhere they talk about how many artillery shells Russia can produce or already have, but I wonder if they can also buy/obtain/build enough artillery systems to fire all these shells. I'm not an expert about military stuff, but I think artillery tubes can deteriorate quite quickly if used a lot. Has anyone any idea of how many of these new hardwares can Russia field each month?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Additional footage of previously-seen failed Russian assault around Avdiivka:

 

I am still amazed by how frequently we are privileged to see multiple angles of the same engagement as each one tells us more about what happened.

The first BTR to hit the mine looks to have lost pretty much everybody in back.  One guy crawls/falls out and the rest appear to have been pulled out into a heap at the end of the video.  The second BTR did better with its mine, having at least some dismounts remaining fairly mobile.  One even tried to get to the tree planting, but seems to have had his trip cut short by an artillery round.  The balance must have been the scattered column we saw getting hit by cluster rounds.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Endyamon said:

I was wondering one thing: Everywhere they talk about how many artillery shells Russia can produce or already have, but I wonder if they can also buy/obtain/build enough artillery systems to fire all these shells. I'm not an expert about military stuff, but I think artillery tubes can deteriorate quite quickly if used a lot. Has anyone any idea of how many of these new hardwares can Russia field each month?

There's been various predictions.  Some detailed analysis of SPGs a few months ago showed they've raided a very large percentage of mothballed systems for barrels or full reactivation.  I don't remember the numbers, but IIRC at least 30% full units had been removed and quite a few above that had their barrels removed.  So I dunno, maybe by this point they've gone through 50% of their spare SPGs?  And this would likely be the better 50% too.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So I dunno, maybe by this point they've gone through 50% of their spare SPGs?  And this would likely be the better 50% too.

I bet they’ve also gone through most of their good trained gunnery crews.

[Vanir Ausf B]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

Wow.  This is a much larger deficit than I had assumed.  I can’t imagine that the US and European countries don’t already have a plan underway to reverse the above ratio over the next year or so, though.

There is. Kinda. The US has a goal for 1.2 million in 2025 and Rheinmetall claims it will be able to produce 600,000 in 2025. But 2024 may be a lean year for Ukraine. And for Russia, actually, since even with North Korean help they will not be able to sustain their 10 million/year usage rate.

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Warning: explicit lyrics.

 

Edited October 27, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

There is. Kinda. The US has a goal for 1.2 million in 2025 and Rheinmetall claims it will be able to produce 600,000 in 2025. But 2024 may be a lean year for Ukraine. And for Russia, actually, since even with North Korean help they will not be able to sustain their 10 million/year usage rate.

Those number need to be tripled, maybe more.

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report from yesterday had some general analysis of Russia's equipment losses and the impact it will have on future capabilities.  Nothing ground breaking, just stating the obvious that if you lose stuff faster than you can replace 'em, there might come a time when there isn't enough available to attack with.

More interesting:

Quote

An amendment to the Russian citizenship law allowing for the revocation of naturalized Russian citizenship came into force on October 26, providing the Russian government with a new mechanism to coerce migrants into Russian military service. The amendment most notably allows Russian authorities to revoke Russian citizenship from naturalized citizens who are convicted of discrediting the Russian military and of committing “certain crimes encroaching on public and personal safety” regardless of when the crime was committed, the date of sentencing, or for how long the convicted has held Russian citizenship.[15] Russian authorities have recently increased raids against migrants accused of committing crimes to deliver summonses and impress migrants into signing military contracts.[16] Russian authorities will likely use this new amendment to further recruit naturalized migrants under threat of revoking their Russian citizenship or after having done so.[17] It is unclear what procedure Russian authorities will follow once they deprive someone of their citizenship, and Russian authorities may intend to use deportation procedures to increase the number of migrants in detention centers, where Russian officials regularly try to recruit.[18] Russian authorities will also likely exploit denaturalized migrants whose labor options will become limited upon conviction of a crime and loss of their Russian citizenship and therefore more vulnerable to military recruitment efforts. The new amendment to the citizenship law also streamlines the process for allocating Russian citizenship to certain individuals, including children with at least one Russian parent, migrants currently residing in Russia, and participants in the Russian state resettlement program, by removing certain entrance requirements.[19]

Holy crap.  Talk about straight forward, brute force way to get at another pool of "recruits".

Step 1 - accuse a naturalized Russian citizen of discrediting the armed forces or pretty much anything

Step 2 - arrest said citizen

Step 3 - while in detention tell him he can get out of this by signing up to fight in Ukraine.

Step 4 - if he says "no", then go through a kangaroo court and strip him of his citizenship.

Step 5 - give him another chance to say "yes" to dying in Ukraine.  If it is still "no", then eventually release him.

Step 6 - re-arrest him for being in the country illegally and then and make the usual offer again.

This is desperation.  I can't wait to see what this does to Russia's economy, but I think having these guys pissed and armed could be fun too.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's report from yesterday had some general analysis of Russia's equipment losses and the impact it will have on future capabilities.  Nothing ground breaking, just stating the obvious that if you lose stuff faster than you can replace 'em, there might come a time when there isn't enough available to attack with.

More interesting:

Holy crap.  Talk about straight forward, brute force way to get at another pool of "recruits".

Step 1 - accuse a naturalized Russian citizen of discrediting the armed forces or pretty much anything

Step 2 - arrest said citizen

Step 3 - while in detention tell him he can get out of this by signing up to fight in Ukraine.

Step 4 - if he says "no", then go through a kangaroo court and strip him of his citizenship.

Step 5 - give him another chance to say "yes" to dying in Ukraine.  If it is still "no", then eventually release him.

Step 6 - re-arrest him for being in the country illegally and then and make the usual offer again.

This is desperation.  I can't wait to see what this does to Russia's economy, but I think having these guys pissed and armed could be fun too.

Steve

Whatever they moved to Russia to do, it wasn't to die in Ukraine. It does make you wonder how awful most of Central Asia is, that moving to Russia seems like a good idea?

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's report from yesterday had some general analysis of Russia's equipment losses and the impact it will have on future capabilities.  Nothing ground breaking, just stating the obvious that if you lose stuff faster than you can replace 'em, there might come a time when there isn't enough available to attack with.

More interesting:

Holy crap.  Talk about straight forward, brute force way to get at another pool of "recruits".

Step 1 - accuse a naturalized Russian citizen of discrediting the armed forces or pretty much anything

Step 2 - arrest said citizen

Step 3 - while in detention tell him he can get out of this by signing up to fight in Ukraine.

Step 4 - if he says "no", then go through a kangaroo court and strip him of his citizenship.

Step 5 - give him another chance to say "yes" to dying in Ukraine.  If it is still "no", then eventually release him.

Step 6 - re-arrest him for being in the country illegally and then and make the usual offer again.

This is desperation.  I can't wait to see what this does to Russia's economy, but I think having these guys pissed and armed could be fun too.

Steve

not to mention the relationships this impacts with the Central Asian republics.  This is a freakin ticking time bomb for Moscow.