How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

55 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Sort of.  Driving is also a much more defined and controlled environment than a battlefield (fully acknowledging that the driving environment is absolutely packed with unpredictable, uncontrolled things).  At least you have a model of roads, standards for lanes and markings, standard signage and traffic controls, rules that you can expect other objects to mostly follow, etc.  So anything that's a deviation from that model has to be deal with, but things that comply with the model you can "ignore", or at least treat as normal operating conditions.  In the battlefield environment, the whole environment can be changing rapidly, and generating meaningful simulation data may be almost as hard as getting real training data.  If you're training to hit big, expensive, slow to change things like tanks and trucks, you can train based on "find things like this and ignore other things". If you're training to find and hit things that only fill a pixel or two and don't stand out from the background (a drone at distance), it's trickier.

That is true, of course, but I think that makes driving more complicated in some aspects, not simpler. Sure, you usually have lane markings but your system can't just go off road in situations where they are suddenly missing. You have a lot of rules from which you can build a model about how your surroundings should look and how traffic participants should behave. You can't just run over a pedestrian because he crossed the road at a point where he technically isn't allowed to, though. Plus, you also have to stick to all those rules: From my experience, teaching the vehicle to just follow the road is easy compared to teaching it to following the road and yielding. Or identifying to which lane a specific traffic light belongs, identifying its state and acting accordingly.

Of course, finding a vehicle on a battlefield is difficult compared to finding a car in a normal traffic situation because cars are usually found on roads... Then again, on a battlefield you don't have to yield to other drones, noone cares if you fly too fast or at the wrong height or above road. Your only task is finding and hitting your target. That is the difficult part. The whole planning and prediction part that makes driving difficult is non-existent.

Detection is a different issue. Sure, finding that one-pixel tank is not easy. But that is related to sensor resolution and you have that same problem in autonomous driving. (I remember calculating what minimum camera resolution is necessary in order to identify pedestrians at a distance far enough away so that I can always brake comfortably when driving at a certain speed)

Edited October 29, 2023 by Butschi

[Butschi]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I want to retire someplace quiet and dig a deep hole.  Watch 80s movies on DVDs off grid.  And maybe die in peace before our machine overlords enslave us all.

Nah, enslavement is really the one thing we don't have to worry about. If the machines take over they do because they are already smarter and more efficient than we are in about everything. What would they gain by enslaving us?

Exterminating, yes, if we are competing for resources or just because they can. Then again we might get lucky and they keep us around for sentimental reasons and pamper us. Or keep us as pets. I mean, a cat's life isn't really that bad, right?

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I want to retire someplace quiet and dig a deep hole.  Watch 80s movies on DVDs off grid.  And maybe die in peace before our machine overlords enslave us all.

Would The Terminator by any chance be on your watch list?

Man, Arnold Schwarzenegger looks good on Blu-Ray.

 

 

 

 

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Would The Terminator by any chance be on your watch list?

Man, Arnold Schwarzenegger looks good on Blu-Ray.

 

 

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As far as I'm concerned people have not experienced great cinema, until they watch The Thing at night in the dead of winter with a glass of J&B in their hand. I think that movie is the main reason I have been drinking J&B scotch for over a decade now.

Anyway, back on topic. Another one bites the dust!

 

[Battlefront.com]

OK right wing Republicans who don't support Ukraine but state we need to do everything we can to support Israel...

Russia pledges to assist cash-strapped Hamas

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna12332816

Idiots.  Smart people, even semi-smart people, have been saying that Russia is a problem that must be dealt with and the sooner the better.  Only idiots, ignorant fools, or Russian suckups have disagreed.

But hey, these are the same people that think storming the Capitol to overthrow the elected President was a great way to preserve election integrity.  Obviously not deep thinkers.  So there's that.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

I finally got around to reading this good article in Politico about Russian (and other) assassinations of critics on US soil and how they get away with them.  Seems it is a combination of jurisdictional issues and nobody really wanting to dig too deep for fear of being correct:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/22/foreign-ops-in-america-00117466

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Seems to be a sign that Russian production of the Kh-101 cruise missiles isn't keeping up with use rates.  UK MoD indicates none have been launched for about a month now:

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/the_uk_defense_intelligence_reports_on_russias_plans_after_a_month_of_silence_in_cruise_missile_strikes-8373.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

As far as I'm concerned people have not experienced great cinema, until they watch The Thing at night in the dead of winter with a glass of J&B in their hand. I think that movie is the main reason I have been drinking J&B scotch for over a decade now.

Anyway, back on topic. Another one bites the dust!

 

To be relevant I will say this is good news about yet another fixed wing loss for Russia. 

In less relevant commentary, last year I rewatched Carpenter's The Thing to see how well it stood up since I saw it in the theater as a first release.  It was so good that it made the "I'll watch that again before I die" list.  This summer I re-watched the prequel The Thing and, although it was almost a carbon copy, really liked that as well.  The ending was genius.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

And in the "you can't make this stuff up if you tried" section of ISW's report tonight:

Quote

Unspecified actors may have purposefully conspired to shut down a prominent Russian Airborne Forces (VDV)-affiliated milblogger. A Russian VDV-affiliated milblogger announced on October 28 that he was forced to shut down his Telegram channel, implying that unspecified actors abducted the raccoon that the milblogger had been using as a mascot to help gain notoriety and fundraise for Russian forces.[44] The milblogger claimed that the channel generated over 20 million rubles ($212,000) for Russian forces within a year.[45] The raccoon gained fame when Russian forces stole it from a zoo when withdrawing from west (right) bank Kherson Oblast in November 2022.[46] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has increasingly targeted Russian milbloggers in censorship and self-censorship campaigns, and it is possible that MoD-affiliated actors aimed to censor this milblogger.[47] The milblogger claimed that “traitors” abducted the raccoon and left occupied Ukraine and suggested that the milblogger may have personally known who took the animal, however.[48] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated that the raccoon had previously attacked Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo and criticized the Russians for losing the raccoon.[49]  ISW is unable independently to confirm reports of the raccoon’s whereabouts or actions.

Steve

[quakerparrot67]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK right wing Republicans who don't support Ukraine but state we need to do everything we can to support Israel...

Russia pledges to assist cash-strapped Hamas

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna12332816

Idiots.  Smart people, even semi-smart people, have been saying that Russia is a problem that must be dealt with and the sooner the better.  Only idiots, ignorant fools, or Russian suckups have disagreed.

But hey, these are the same people that think storming the Capitol to overthrow the elected President was a great way to preserve election integrity.  Obviously not deep thinkers.  So there's that.

Steve

 this was from 2006, tho.

 

cheers,

rob

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, quakerparrot67 said:

 this was from 2006, tho.

 

cheers,

rob

 

Argh.  I fell victim to social media!  Clever bugger actually linked to an article and, aside from the date stamp, it looked relevant.

Oh well, I guess it still counts as "this is why we need to smack down Russia".  If there is need for something more current, there is this:

Ukraine: The Latest - Hamas visit Moscow as Putin makes a 'cold-blooded calculation'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/27/hamas-moscow-russia-iran-geopolitics/

In a way I'm glad I accidentally thought a 2006 article was from 2023.  It shows that Russia's nefarious intentions in the Middle East are long standing.  Even longer if you include the Soviet Union's notorious activities in the area.

Steve

[quakerparrot67]

50 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Argh.  I fell victim to social media!  Clever bugger actually linked to an article and, aside from the date stamp, it looked relevant.

Oh well, I guess it still counts as "this is why we need to smack down Russia".  If there is need for something more current, there is this:

Ukraine: The Latest - Hamas visit Moscow as Putin makes a 'cold-blooded calculation'

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/27/hamas-moscow-russia-iran-geopolitics/

In a way I'm glad I accidentally thought a 2006 article was from 2023.  It shows that Russia's nefarious intentions in the Middle East are long standing.  Even longer if you include the Soviet Union's notorious activities in the area.

Steve

 i only got suspicious when i noticed there was no mention of the actual war- so  i checked the date, lol.  easy mistake.

 

cheers,

rob

[danfrodo]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

When I retire from building distributed systems and machine learning whatnots, I want to build the machine overlords!

I'm currently helping to design the machine overlords.  They are currently dumb as F---  

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I'm currently helping to design the machine overlords.  They are currently dumb as F---  

But that still might make them twice as smart as the Russian Army, and therefore useful.

[Kinophile]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/28/russian-losses-in-battle-for-avdiivka-may-be-worst-of-2023-says-uk

"MoD intelligence update says up to eight brigades have been committed to ‘heavy but inconclusive’ fighting"

[Aragorn2002]

18 hours ago, Butschi said:

"Die Zeit" article (in German)

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-10/ukraine-gegenoffensive-ende-unterstuetzung-krieg-russland

The noteworthy aspect is the way the Russian offensive is interpreted. In line with what I had guesstimated the reaction over here would be.

Excerpt:

Seen in isolation and from a purely military point of view the offensive looks like a waste of lives and material. However, for the mainstream audience, what sticks is that Russia is still able to mount a large offensive despite everything we've sent to Ukraine. Note also: this is the only article about Ukraine in Zeit today. Israel has completely replaced Ukraine in the news.

An article worth reading, as are the comments. The West still doesn't realize what's at stake. And now we have something else to concentrate on. Bloody Middle East again.

[chuckdyke]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

An article worth reading, as are the comments. The West still doesn't realize what's at stake. And now we have something else to concentrate on. Bloody Middle East again.

One click and you can read it in English.  Ukraine's counteroffensive: Ukraine's counteroffensive has missed its target | ZEIT ONLINE It is not how long it takes but does the West want the Ukraine to win.

Edited October 30, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Aragorn2002]

22 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

One click and you can read it in English.  Ukraine's counteroffensive: Ukraine's counteroffensive has missed its target | ZEIT ONLINE It is not how long it takes but does the West want the Ukraine to win.

What is left of 'The West' anyway? Discussing about whether childeren have the right to chose their gender and emptying our churches, so they can be turned into mosques. And as one of the commentators so rightly put it, only interested in our wallet and the size of our car. We're in a Cold War, a collision of systems and ideals. What happens in the Middle East is peanuts compared to the war in the East. Part of Vlad's masterplan to divide and conquer. And it works, because of our stupidity and lack of focus.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[chuckdyke]

21 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

childeren have the right to chose their gende

We live in a world of alternative reality where 2+2 equals five because you have the right of an opinion.. 

[Fernando]

7 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We live in a world of alternative reality where 2+2 equals five because you have the right of an opinion.. 

2 + 2 equals 22

Edited October 30, 2023 by Fernando

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Fernando said:

2 + 2 equals 22

I thought that Manuel came from Barcelona. He worked for a Bed and Breakfast Inn (Fawlty Towers) in England.  

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by chuckdyke

[Fernando]

19 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

I thought that Manuel came from Barcelona. He worked for a Bed and Breakfast Inn (Fawlty Towers) in England.  

 

Please, watch the youtube video I have linked before answering. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Fernando